Incumbent Party – Republican
Projection – Strong Republican Hold
This will be a hard fought race but it is one which Republican Richard Mourdock should win handily.
After defeating the practically legendary incumbent Senator Richard Lugar, Mourdock made quite a name for himself and is largely viewed as an anti-establishment, T.E.A. movement, conservative candidate who seeks to represent Indiana by fighting the system, not working for the system.
This year, that goes over well in Indiana where President Obama is not expected to even come close to win the state’s electoral college votes, even though he won them in 2008.
In this senate race, Mourdoch should be able to outperform his Democrat in every area from fundraising to debating. In addition to that, all other factors are in Mourdoch’s favor. In addition to Democrats being damaged goods in Indiana at the top of the ticket with President Obama, their gubernatorial candidate who is running to replace the outgoing, term limited Governor, Mitch Daniels, is running far behind the Republican gubernatorial nominee, Congressman Mike Pence.
Liberals are still however buoyed by the fact that Lugar lost the Republican nomination to what most voters consider to be a more conservative Republican. It is their hope that Mourdock is too conservative for Indiana voters and that many of the Independents and even Democrats who would have turned out for Lugar in the general election, will refuse to support Mourdock and instead vote for Donnelly.
But liberals are dreaming. As usual.
Mourdoch has a lock on this race and while I am certain that at some point there will be polls that show the race tightening and will prompt the left to claim Donnelly is turning this around, I fully expect Mourdock to beat Donnelly by no fewer than 3 to 4 percent but probably more.