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Republicans Can’t Gloat, But They Can Listen To the Voters & Set an Example

Bookmark and Share    Two years ago I listened to Democrats tell me “Republicans have gone the way of the Whigs”, “this is the end of the Republican Party”, “the Republican Party is forever lost”, “they will never comeback”. These are direct quotes. They are the thoughts of euphoric liberals who saw, then President-Elect Barack Obama, as a messianic figure, a modern JFK and the “hope” of our nation. At the time, I could not help but think, first, these are the same people who think Joe Biden is a genius, and second, how naïve could these people be?

I for one understand the cyclical nature of politics and I also understood the nature of the Democrats slow rise to control between 2004 and 2008. So, confident in the principles that lie at the heart of the G.O.P., I knew the Republican Party was not dead. I knew that we would come back and I never abandoned the cause to bring ’em back.  I hoped for my Party to have learned a lesson and come to understand what they did wrong. I was also confident that, being dominated by liberals, the Democrat Party would prove incompetent. I stated such. I also stated that President Obama would be a reincarnation of the Carter presidency and prove to be a man controlled  by circumstances more than he controlled circumstances.

Between my two perceptions of the Parties, I knew the G.O.P. would be back. However, I never expected them to comeback quicker than any other time in American political history. Sadly, I cannot say that this record comeback was to my Party’s credit. It was solely due to the failure of Democrats. They performed in a way that demonstrated everything that people hate about politics. When it comes to partisanship, they defined it. When it came to pork, they stuffed their faces. On the issue of spending, one would have to work really hard to try to spend more than they have in just 20 short months. On negative issue, after negative issue, Democrats exaggerated the negatives. The closed door deals, the underhanded tactics, the passage of bills they did not read, the overreach of government, corruption, whatever people disliked about government and politics, Democrats did.

In the meantime, the G.O.P. had little chance to give the public reason to vote for them and offered little reason to do so either. What they did do though, was oppose all that Democrats did and all that the public disliked. For that reason, they were the beneficiaries of a protest vote against Democrats, not necessarily a vote for Republicans.

That is why I have penned the midterms of 2010 the Republican Rejuvenation. In 1994, the wave that swept Republicans into power was accurately called the Republican Revolution. And it was a revolution. People had approved of the ideas and direction that the G.O.P. was offering. But this time, the people are not that confident. So while this election has indeed rejuvenated the G.O.P., the rise back to power they have experienced is an opportunity, not a victory. It is a chance that is theirs to blow, or take advantage of.

It ‘s a chance to show leadership and prove that they understand that the leadership they must provide is that which leads us to a limited government that stays out of our lives, spends less of our money and more accurately reflects that which it was intended to when it was founded.

So now that the chance to prove ourselves is upon us, how do we as Republicans take advantage of the opportunity?

First; we must not act like Democrats. We must not be hypocrites and implement the same legislative tactics and sleights of hands that we denounced Democrats for using to pass legislation. Second; we must not approve increased spending which increases the overall federal budget and need to reduce spending and the deficit. Third; we must follow through on our promises and cut the size of government and repeal Obamacare and replace it, not with a more government, but rather a package of changes which help make healthcare more affordable through the free market, not through a behemoth new federal bureaucracy.

But this is not enough. Republicans must go the extra mile and prove that they have not only learned the ideological lessons which teach us that we can not compromise on big spending and big government, but that we also want less government when it comes to the personal lives of individual Americans. We must show that when we discuss less regulation, we also mean less regulation of the people and their personal lives. And beyond proving that we have learned our ideological lessons we must appeal to the nonpartisan nature of the average American and prove that we have learned how to provide leadership that is for country , not Party.

It is this cause which I feel the G.O.P. must act upon first.

When President Obama was elected, he proved himself to be quite partisan. It took him 18 months to meet one on one with Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. It took him a year to start discussing healthcare reform with Republicans. He has recently stated that Republicans can join with Democrats but have sit in the back and described the loyal opposition as “our enemy“.. These are not the acts and words of a leader who wants to cross the aisle and deal with all Americans or hear all opinions. The American people are tired of partisan leadership and partisan gridlock. That is why with this new opportunity at hand, Republicans must show that they understand when partisanship and politics must stop and productivity and progress must start.

To do so, I call upon the new Republican majority to reach out to the Democrat minority and our President. Reach out to them, one on one and say. “let’s start the new Congress right. Let’s start it off on a productive note and let’s answer this question. What do we agree upon?”

I want the Republican leadership to find out what Democrats and Republicans can do together in the first 100 days and start off on the right foot. Let us change the tone in Washington that the American working class hates about the political class.

While there are priorities which the G.O.P. will have a responsibility to address with haste, certain national priorities and commitments they campaigned on, at the same time, there must be some significant issues which the left and the right can agree on. Let us find out what they are and act upon them, now, not later.

This new day in politics must produce a new way in politics. A way that unites more than divides and lifts us up as nation more than weighs us down. In this new day, Republicans have a chance to say “no” to what needs to be rejected, but the responsibility to produce that which should be said “yes” to. The opportunity we have been handed must be used to demonstrate that we are deserving of the peoples vote and that when applied to government properly, the core Republicans principles we stand for, are key to the formulation of the best policies for the American people. This opportunity we have is nothing to gloat about. We have no right to gloat. We did not earn this victory in 2010, we simply were the beneficiary of the Democrat’s losses. But if we do what is right, now, we can truly be deserving of votes later.

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What To Look For In The Early Election Returns

Bookmark and Share    For those of you who find yourselves viewing election returns with the same type of intensity that most watch the Super Bowl with, POLITICS 24/7  previously offered a comprehensive election night analysis and schedule along with projections. It seems to have been quite popular and so  for those who are most anxious, POLITICS 24/7 now focuses in on the earliest returns and what they are likely to tell us about how the rest of the night will shape up.

The very first returns that have the chance of being reported on will come out of Indiana and Kentucky. Here, parts of the state close their polls at 6:00 pm EST. As a result, it is possible for some media outlets to report the results of some of the first House races. But it is also possible, in fact likely, that the results in a few of those congressional districts where the polls do close, will be too close to call.

6:00 pm

But sometime between 6:00 and 7:00 pm look at Indiana-2 and 9, and Kentucky-3 and 6.

In Indiana’s 9th CD, a loss by incumbent Democrat Baron Hill will be a sign that Republicans are indeed on track to take the House and see significant gains across the board.

If the races in Indiana‘s 2nd district and Kentucky’s 3rd, are too close to call, rest assured that that this will indeed be a wave election. But if Democrat incumbents Joe Donnelly and John Yarmuth actually lose, to their Republican opponents, Jackie Walorski and Todd Lally, you can take it as a sign that the 2010 midterms are going to be a tsunami that will produce historic gains for the Republicans that approach 70 seats.

 

 

7:00 pm

After 7:00 pm EST, the races that will act as barometers and need to be watched include:

 Kentucky’s Senate race, South Carolina-5, Florida-8 & 22, Georgia-8 & 12, Virginia-5 & 11.

The GOP will be on track for 50 or more seats with Republicans wins in the Kentucky Senate race with Rand Paul, in addition to the following House races;

South Carolina-5 (Mick Mulvaney-R over John Spratt-D), Florida-8 (Daniel Webster-R over Allen Grayson-D), Florida-22 (Allen West-R over Ron Klein-D), Georgia-8 (Austin Scott-R over Jim Marshall-D) and, Virginia-5 (Robert Hurt over Tom Perriello-D)

While those wins will help verify that the G.O.P. is on track, the following results between 7 and 8 O’clock will be signs that Democrats are about to be crushed worse than expected;

Georgia-12 (Ray McKinney-R over John Barrow-D) and Virginia-11 (David McKinley-R over Mike Oliviero-D)

7:30 pm

Between 7:30 and 8:00 pm, the results to look at will come out West Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina.

Wins by John Kasich in Ohio’s gubernatorial race and Ohio’s 1st CD (Steve Chabot-R over Steve Driehaus-D) will show that the G.O.P. is on track and that trends are holding. But the races that will indicate that the Republican wave may bigger than anyone anticipates will come from West Virginia’s race for U.S. Senate and the following House races;

 WV-1, WV-3, NC-11 and OH-6

Any combination of two or more wins in these races will point to Republican gains in the House that will exceed 62 seats and if John Raese pulls it out and beats back popular Democrats Governor Joe Mancin for Senate in West Virginia, the G.O.P. will have the potential of taking control of the United States Senate.

8:00 pm

After the 8 o’clock hour, the outcome of the 2010 midterm will begin to be set in stone.

News out of Illinois of Republican pickups in the Senate by Kirk and the statehouse by Brady, will keep everything track in still make it possible for Republicans to take control of the United States Senate. From Pennsylvania, word of Pat Toomey defeating Joe SaysTax will be further evidence of the trend holding. Of course something else to watch for in these wins, will be the margins of victory. If any of these races produce leads of 5 or more percent, that will help prove that polling models are inaccurate and were unable to detect the undercurrent of voter sentiments. A sure sign that things will be worse off for Democrats than anyone anticipate, would be a Republican win over Democrat Patrick Duval in the race for Governor of Massachusetts.

The House races to look at here will be:

Connecticut-5, Pennsylvania-3 and11, NH 1, Illinois-14, and Mississippi-4

A majority of Republicans here are keeping the G.O.P on track for a big night. But if it is going to be a really big night for Republicans they will be winning the following races:

Pennsylvania-8 (Michael Fitzpatrick-R over Patrick Murphy-D), New Jersey-3, (Jon Runyan-R over John Adler-D)

Democrat losses of these two seats will be a sign that the anti-Democrat sentiments are seeping into some of the bluest states in one of the bluest regions of the country. Other such races include:

 Massachusetts-10, Illinois-17 and, Missouri-4

 And two seats that Democrats losses would mean that they are going to be dead in the water  would be:

New Jersey 6 and 12

Here Democrats Frank Pallone and Rush Holt are seemingly safe seats, but there are rumblings that could prove them not to be safe for big government, big spending liberals anymore.  That and extremely hard fought races by their Republican opponents Anna Little and Scott Sipprele makes these races worth watching.  Pallone and Holt may not lose but if they have a margin of victory that is less than 6 or 7 percent, Democrats will be living in fear from now to 2012.

 But aside from these races, keep your eyes out for the returns in

Massachusetts’ 4th CD and Michigan’ 15th

If long serving John Dingel goes down in Michigan, Democrats better hold on for a tougher ride than they expected, but if Barney Frank loses to Republican Sean Bielat in MA-4, Republicans may be on their way to taking 70 seats.

Defeating Barney Frank may be unlikely, but after Republican Scott Brown was elected to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate and a strong race by Sean Bielat, if there are going to be any miracles on election night, they will take place here in the Bay State.

9:00 pm

As the 9 o’clock hour rolls out look for the House to be officially declared to have changed hands and gone to Republican control. But during this hour, some of the House races that will give a hint as to the size of their majority, are;

Louisiana-2, Minnesota-1 & 8, Michigan-15, NY-2, 13, 19, 24, Rhode Island and Wisconsin 13

While many other seats are going to fall to Republicans after 9 o’clock, especially in New York, Colorado and Wisconsin and Michigan, of the seats mentioned above, if Democrats who are likely to win in these districts, lose any combination of 4 or more, Republicans are looking at House gains approaching 70 seats

10:00 pm

Long before this hour, we should have established that the House has gone to Republicans but we should also have a good idea on how the rest of the chips will fall. I anticipate that after this hour, the balance of power in the Senate will come down to California and Washington where Boxer and Murphy are at risk (Murphy more so than Boxer), and Alaska where write-n ballots will drag out the time it takes to declare Joe Miller the winner.

Sharon Angle is likely to win in Nevada but as for this race, look for the early numbers that come out of Clark County.

Clark County is the home of Las Vegas and most of the state’s population. Clark County is overwhelmingly Democrat, but it is the only part of the state that is. If returns out of Clark County are showing Harry Reid with a lead over Angle that is not higher than 8%, Harry Reid will have lost his bid for reelection.

Other races of special interest throughout the night will be Louisiana-2 where incumbent Joseph Cao is likely to lose to Democrat Cedric Richmond.  If Cao wins, this will be a sign that Democrats are underperforming among their base and minorities musch worse than anyone thought possible.  The same will be able to be said if Democrat Incumbent Loretta Sanchez loses to Republican Van Tran in California’s 47th congressional district. 

Also of interest will be Hawaii’s at-large seat in Congress and race for Governor.  Republicans have a decent but unlikely chance of keeping Charles Djou in office but an even less likely chance of keeping its statehouse in Republican hands aginst popular retiring Congressman Neil Abercrombie.

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POLITICS 24/7’s 2010 Election Night Schedule, Projections & Analysis

Bookmark and Share     In these closing days of the midterm elections, Democrats have been unable to do anything to stop the hemorrhaging of support that continues to drain away from them. At the same time, the wind behind the backs of the G.O.P. continues to build and with no resistance in sight, the momentum for Republican electoral victories is only strengthening. Two weeks ago, I feared that Republicans had peaked in the polls. That would have been a premature occurrence and not boded well. But since then, as GOP candidates continue to rise in the polls, it is clear that Republicans did not peak too early. All indications are that the momentum is still behind them and building. As such, history shows that many seats which are close enough to be considered tossups and those that have Democrats holding only slight leads, are more likely to fall into Republican hands then Democrat hands.

In addition to that and the massive swing of Independent and women voters to Republicans from Democrats, I believe that the anti-Democrat sentiment is currently running so unusually strong and deep that traditional polling models are not able to accurately enough read the depth of support for Republican candidates that exists out there. At least not as accurately as they normally can be.

The polls most reflective of final election results are those that are taken among people who are considered likely voters. But this year, there exists a group of voters which can not yet be identified by existing polling models. They fall in neither the category of “first time voters” or “likely voters”. It is the segment of the electorate which is also the most angry and the most likely to vote against Democrats. They are voters who became fed up with government as much as 5 to10 years ago and tuned out and stopped voting. But now, they have become so angered that they have come out of inactivity and are going to be some of the first people to cast their ballots against Democrats on Election Day. Existing polls are unable to account for this demographic and are allowing for results that do not contain the influence of these voters.

It is this unseen undercurrent of Republican support which I believe is going to help tip tossup races in favor of G.O.P. challengers and produce a number of surprises in races that are leaning toward Democrats. For instance, while I admit that Barbara Boxer is likely to be reelected, I have a feeling that Republican Carly Fiorna is poised to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the night and throw Boxer into a long overdue retirement from politics. The same undercurrent that I believe may sweep Fiorna into the Senate, will probably also be sweeping Republicans Dino Rossi of Washington and, I am going out on a limb by saying West Virginia’s John Raese, also to victory.

On the Senate side I believe that Republicans establish majority control by winning in:

Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia.

West Virginia and Washington are going to be too close for comfort though, and these results may not be official for quite a while, especially in Washington where mail in ballots are going to make recounts a tedious and time consuming process.

As for Alaska, this will probably be the very last race to be declared and won’t be done on Tuesday. Expect a careful and methodical recount of tons of write-in votes and court challenges. In the case of Delaware, I am probably one of the few people who is still not writing-off the ability for Christine O’Donnell and the voters of Delaware to make the professional pundits, political establishment and the media, look stupid, by pulling off an unlikely surprise upset victory over Democrat Chris Coons.

So while I an sure that  the G.O.P. will have a minimum net gain of 8 seats in the Senate, I believe that some combination of wins in Washington, West Virginia and/or California, will give Republicans control of the Senate with a total of 51 to 49 seats. But the very real possibility of  a 50/50 tie does actually exist here. If that happens, expect the GOP to end up taking control at some point during the course of the new year as at least one Democrat or two switch Parties ahead of their 2012 reelection bids in an attempt to avoid becoming  a casualty when President Obama is on the top of the liberal ticket.

On the House side, I expect Republicans to increase their existing numbers by a minimum of 58 districts that are currently held by Democrats, but project that they actually win 62 seats and have a good chance to gain as many as 68. This would bring Republicans from the current number of 178, to anywhere from 240 to 246 House seats. Such numbers would give the G.O.P. one of its largest majorities since 1946.

Many may believe that these figures are too high. As a skeptic, under normal conditions, I might believe so too. However, even though I am typically a pessimist and even though I usually prefer to lower expectations in politics, I am convinced that my projections are not exaggerated or overly optimistic and I believe there to be a greater chance for the higher estimate to come to fruition than there is for my lower estimate.

But the proof will be in the pudding and no matter how much statistical data and fine tuning of local factors that I combine together to reach my projections, only each individual voter ultimately knows what they will do with their private ballot. And Lord only knows the variables that things like the weather will add to the mix.

But signs of the final results will reveal themselves early on in the evening of November 2nd.

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6:00 pm: Parts of Indiana and Kentucky;

Polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6:00 pm, but we may not hear any results until 7:00 PM when the rest of the polls in those states close  along with Virginia, Georgia, Vermont, South Carolina and parts of Florida.

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7:00 pm: Virginia, Georgia, Vermont, South Carolina, Parts of Florida, All of Indiana and Kentucky;

The hour between 7:00 and 8:00 pm may produce election results that provide us with a hint as to whether the 2010 midterm elections are going to be for Republicans a current, wave or tsunami.

South Carolina’s Niki Haley will hold on to the Governor’s mansion for Republicans but it is South Carolina’s 5th CD which may be one of the very first signs of just how an unusually large number of normaly safe Democrat seats and incumbents are about to fall like dominos. Here, if longtime incumbent John Spratt loses to Republican Mick Mulvaney, people like Michigan’s John Dingel and Massachusetts Barney Frank, better pull out the rosaries, find God, light a candle and say a few prayers because for the first time in their careers they will most definitely be vulnerable.

From Indiana, The GOP will gain a senate seat, replacing retiring Evan Bayh with Dan Coats and news that 8th and 9th district Republicans Larry Buschon and Todd Young defeat Democrat incumbents Trent Van Haaftern and Baron Hill will indicate that Republicans are on track to win 55 or more seats. Should they lose, the GOP will still be in line for at least 40 seats but significantly more than that may in fact not be realistic. In Indiana’s 2nd district, if returns are still too close to declare incumbent Democrat Congressman Joe Donnelly the winner, or if his Republican opponent Jackie Walorski beats him, do not be surprised by GOP gains of 60 or more seats.

In Florida, early indications that Republicans are on track for 40 or more seats will be seen in early returns that give the GOP wins in FL-2 with Republican Steve Sutherland, and in the 8th, where the unbridled liberalism of Allen Grayson, one of the most obnoxious and arrogant members of Congress, should be shut up and shot down by Republican Daniel Webster. But if the G.O.P. is going to be riding a tsunami to control of the House, Lt. Col. Allen West, my favorite candidate of all running for the House, will win in Fl-22, along with Republican Sandy Adams over Democrat Suzanne Kosmas in Fl-24.

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7:30 pm: West Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio

Races to look at as barometers between 6 and 8 pm include KY-3, where incumbent John Yarmuth should win by at least three or more percent. If his opponent, Todd Lally pulls off an unlikely win, this election will be a bigger landslide to the G.O.P. than anyone anticipated.

The same goes for KY-6 (Ben Chandler vs. Andy Barr), NC-2 (Bob Etherdige vs. Renee Elmers), VA- 5 (Tom Perriello vs. Robert Hurt), GA-12 (John Barrow vs. Raymond McKinney), OH-6 (Charlie Wilson vs. Bill Johnson), and WV-3 (Nick Rahall vs. Spike Maynard) and we should be getting news on SC-5 (John Spratt vs. Mick Mulvaney),

Perhaps the biggest news at this time will be the news that Rob Portman keeps Ohio’s senate in the Republican column and that John Kasich takes the Governor’s mansion away from incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland.  Kasich is anoother favorite candidate of mine in the 2010 midterm elections.  Like Marco Rubio, he is potential presidential material and no matter what a rising star on the national stage of conservativbe leadership.

At the hour of eight o’clock, the real dye will be cast.

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8:00 pm: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida CD’s 1 & 2, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas;

At this point in time, despite Linda McMahon and the Republican candidate for Governor losing their races in Connecticut, look for CT-5 (Chris Murphy vs. Sam Caligiuri), to switch and if CN-4 also falls, you will have further confirmation of the 2010 midterm elections being historic. During the eight o’clock hour, one of the most powerful indicators of just how big Republicans may win by, will play out dramatically in Mississippi’s 4th CD. If incumbent Blue Dog Democrats Gene Taylor goes down to Republican Steven Palazzo, President Obama might want to consider pulling a Charlie Crist and registering as an Independent because a loss by Taylor will mean that there is no place for Democrats to hide and no issue for them to hide behind.

Another race that could be indicative of the “big mo” behind the G.O.P. will be Maine’s 1st district where Democrat Chellie Pingree could be beaten by Republican Dean Scontras.

The state to produce the biggest switch to the G.O.P. this hour may be Pennsylvania where, Republicans Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey will take the statehouse and U.S. Senate and as many as 7 seats could go red. The five seats most likely to switch are PA-3 (Kathy Dahlkemper-D vs. Mike Kelly-R), PA-7 (Patrick Meehan-D vs. Bryan Lentz-R), PA-8 (Patrick Murphy-D vs. Michael Fitzpatrick-R), PA-10 (Chris Carney-D vs. Tom Marino-R), PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski vs. Lou Barletta).

The real kicker here will be the results of Massachusetts 4th district.  In order for these midterms elections to be a complete success Barney “Mac” Frank must be eliminated from public service.  Frank is a boil on the seat of government, a dangerous drain on federal integrity and resources, and a government official whose fingerprints are alover the housing market crisis and the subsequent economic coolapse that ensued.  His opponent Sean Bielat has made this the most competetive races Barney Frank has ever had  and proven himself to be an energetic, trustworthy leader for Massachusetts and fiscal responsibility in a limited government.  Bielat is not likely to win but he will come closer than anyone expects and as far as I am concerned, after the shocking election of Scott Brown to the the U.S. Senate, an election whicg created the trend of turning the political brown instead of red, I believe that potential for a an electoral riptide exists here and that Barney Frank could actually be carried away by the anti-establishment, anti-Democrat sentiment that swept Scott brown to victory.

In regards to the U.S. Senate, sometime between 8 and 8:30 we should be hearing that my favorite Senate candidate, Marco Rubio, has pummeled both Charlie “What Am I Now” Crist and Democrat Kendrick “I should have stayed in the House” Meek.

We should also hear that in addition to Joe “Says Tax” Sestak in Pennsylvania, we can say goodbye to Mr. Alexi Giannoulias, President Obama’s corrupt banker buddy and welcome his Republican opponent, Republican Mark Kirk, to the Senate from Illinois.

As far as the races for Governor go, after the 8:00 pm closures, in addition to Paul LePage taking Maine, Tom Corbet taking Pennsylvania, and Florida going to Rick Scott, the GOP will also increase the number of Governors in Illinois with Bill Brady.

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8:30 pm: Arkansas

At 8:30 pm, Arkansas closes the book on the 2010 midterms with a stinging and embarrassing defeat of Democrat Senator Blanche Lincoln and the flip of AR-2 from Democrat Joyce Elliot to Republican Tim Griffith.

A defeat of Democrats in AR-1 and 4 is not likely but possible. If they do fall to Republicans, this will be further evidence that we will be in the midst of a total shift in the tectonic plates of the political landscape.

Before 9:00 pm, we should already know that Nancy Pelosi’s tenure as majority leader is just a bad memory. But during the 9 o’clock hour, a flood of states will be delivering additional blows to Democrats.

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9:00 pm: Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

Between 9 and 10 pm, the G.O.P. will make big gains in the all important statehouses which will be instrumental in drawing preferential districts for the incumbent Party for the next decade and also in making big strides toward control of the United States Senate.

Republicans will pick up Governors in Kansas, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Wyoming, and have a good chance of taking Minnesota. Rhode Island’s gubernatorial leadership is likely to flip from Republican hands to Independent hands, but it is still somewhat of a tossup. And while I do not see us keeping Rhode Island, if by chance, Republican John Robitale defeats liberal Independent Lincoln Chafee and Liberal Democrat Frank Caprio, Democrats will need sedatives to get through the rest of the night because that will be indicative of a pending national whooping that will hit them so hard, FDR will feel it.

As for the Senate, say goodbye to Michael Bennet in Colorado, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.

House races to look at for signs of how substantial the night will be for Republicans, include; CO-7 (Permultter-D vs. Frazier), RI-1 (Cicilline-D vs. Loughlin-R), and especially NY-1 (Bishop-D vs. Altschuler-R), NY-13 (McMahon vs. Grimm-R), TX- 25 (Dagget-D vs. Campbell-R), and MN-8 (Oberstar vs. Cravaack). Any combination of three or more of these seats will be one of the final signs that Democrats are spiraling out of control in this election. From those states which wrap their voting up during this hour, at least 16 or 17 seats should switch from Democrats to Republicans. Some of the biggest gains are likely to come from New York where the GOP will pick at least 4 seats, (NY-1, 19, 20, and 29), but possibly as many as 6 with wins. A remarkable chance exists for Republicans to take back the 13th CD which is encompasses the Staten Island and Southwest Brooklyn section of New York City’s five boroughs. This seat has been the only one in which New York City sent a Republican to occupy. It was in Republican hands for decades but last year fell to Democrats after Congressman Vito Fossella received a DUI charge in Virginia and subsequently revealed that while he was away in Washington from his Staten Island family, he spent time with his mistress and illegitimate child in Virginia. The candidacy of Michael Grimm and the anti-Democrat environment we are in, makes this a good last chance to take this seat back.

The other New York race that is well worth watching is out on the Southern tip of Long Island where Tim Bishop, (D, NY-1) could find himself a victim of a trend that began on Long Island last November when one of its two counties was taken by surprise when Republican Ed Mangano came from nowhere to defeat a safe Democrat incumbent in a race that was largely seen as uncompetitive. Although that was Nassau County and NY-1 is in Suffolk County, there is not much that differentiates the one county from the other when it comes to political sentiments. In this congressional district, Republican Randy Altschuler is certainly giving incumbent Tim Bishop a run for his money and if there are going to be a lot of surprises on November 2nd, NY-1 is as a good a place as any.

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10:00 pm: Arizona, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Nevada, Utah

It may not be made official for an hour or so but the biggest news of the night will happen not long after the stroke of 10 when Sharon Angle embarrasses Democrats by taking down their Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid. Further embarrassment will include the ridiculously lopsided loss of Harry’s son Rory Reid, who is running for Governor of Nevada. Hopefully the Reid family will take the message and crawl back under the rock they emerged from.

In this same round of poll closings Iowa will give the GOP a statehouse pickup in Iowa. House seats to watch include AZ-7 where a win by real life rocket scientist, Republican Ruth McClung could defeat incumbent Raul Grijalva. McClung is not favored to win but if she did, it would be indicative of 2010 being much more than a Republican wave election. Other races which are suppose to remain in Democrats hands but could be upsetting the establishment are AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords-D vs. Jesse Kelly-R), ID-1 (Walt Minnick-D vs. Raul Labrador-R), IA-3 (Boswell-D vs. Brad Zaun-R) NV-3 (Titus-D vs. Heck-R), ND-At Large (Pomeroy-D vs. Berg-R), and UT-2 (Matheson-D vs. Morgan Phipot-R).

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11:00 pm: California, Washington and Oregon;

In this round of poll closings, the GOP will simply be putting the icing on the cake House, but could determine whether or not they take control of the Senate.

In California, Republicans may very well control in Sacramento with the defeat of Meg Whitman to Jerry Brown and while only a major last minute development can save her, Carly Fiorina will in my opinion fare far better and ultimately pack Boxer up with a victory of a percent or less.

Washington state is likely to produce an upset by sending Republican Dino Rossi to Washington and retiring incumbent Patty Murray by another slim margin of victory, but mail in ballots will prevent this from being confirmed for days, at least.

The most interesting House race to be watched will be in California where Democrat Loretta Sanchez is in the tightest race of her nearly two decade in office as she tries to beat off a challenge Van Tran. Vietnamese Tran, a California state legislator, is unifying the significant 15% of the district populations which is Vietnamese, along with a coalition of Independent Hispanics, African-Americans and Caucasians, along with a sizeable Republican vote. Together, these groups are countering the overwhelming 69% Hispanic makeup of the district. But that is a pretty solid voting bloc and if Van Tran can pull this one off, it will in large part be due to the strong undercurrent that is sweeping Democrats away. Sanchez should win this election the surprise factor has great promise in CA-47.

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12:00 pm: Alaska, Hawaii

At this point, Republicans may be needing a victory by Joe Miller to take control of the Senate. But despite losing the GOP nomination in Alaska, Miller’s closets opponent in the race, Lisa Murkowski, is still a Republican and if her outside chance of successful write-in candidacy comes true, she is still likely to caucus with Republicans and in that regards, accomplish the same goal as far as who will control the Senate. Either way, expect Alaska’s results to no be made official for quite a while.

In Hawaii, CD-1 will be an attention grabber. Here, Republican Charles Djou recently won the seat in a special election. Yet observers favor his opponent, Democrat Colleen Hanabusa to take this seat back for Democrats. I think Djou can keep it, albeit by a small margin, but by a majority nonetheless. As for the governor’s race in Hawaii, while Republican Duke Aiona has made this race a tossup between popular retiring Congressman Neil Abercrombie, I fear Abercrombie is just to popular to defeat in Hawaii. The fact that Aiona has made this race as close as it is, is a tremendous credit to him, but in the end, I see Republicans losing the hold they had on the Hawaii statehouse with retiring Republican Governor Linda Lingle, to Neil Abercrombie.

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No matter what, Republicans will be back in a position of power that will make it at the very least alter the Obama agenda and make it impossible for the President and Democrats to try to circumvent them. If the GOP happens to take control of both the Senate and the House, you can rest assured that President Obama is going to be a different President than he has been over these past 22or so months. Will he abandon his agenda and moderate in order to work with Congress or will he stick to his guns and risk an endless stream of rejection from Congress? When Bill Clinton was faced with the Republican Revolution of 1994, he was reduced to having to explain to a reporter how he would be relevant to the political process during the second half of his term.

Now, with the Republican Rejuvenation of 2010, President Obama may be faced with the same need to prove how relevant he will be. This will certainly be the case if Republicans can exploit the small chance of taking over the senate as well as the House. But Bill Clinton was able to prove that he was indeed relevant. He began to pay attention to the pulse of the people and began working with the G.O.P. instead of constantly working against them. This will be harder for President Obama to do though. The has publicly told Republicans to sit on the back of the bus and called Republicans “the enemy”. Still, unless President Obama wants to endorse gridlock and seek to get reelected by claiming that the GOP is still in the way of his agenda which has proven to be a failure, he will be forced to moderate. How he reacts to the new political in America will be quite interesting. If he is the politically charismatic genius that some claim, he could turn things around and resurrect himself among mainstream and moderate America and the powerful Independent vote.

As for Republicans, it must be remembered that they are not winning because people like, trust or want them. They are skeptical of the GOP and not fully convinced that they understand that the people do not want to compromise on the issues of big government, big spending and further encroachment of our constitutional rights. This means that Republicans must be unafraid of saying “no” to the President. They must not backtrack on attempts to repeal government healthcare, cut the size, scope and cost of government or cave in to political correctness and fail to live up to the promises made in 2010.

The final political effect of the 2010 election results will be seen in the 2012 race for President a contest that will begin on the Republican side on Wednesday November 3rd. On the Democrat side it may not begin start up quite as fast. President Obama will be spending some time outside of the country in the days to follow the election. And when he returns home he will be making every single policy decision with 2012 in mind and others. But others like Hillary Clinton may also be doing the same. People like her might feel that the devastating losses that Democrats will have suffered, will require them to save the Party from President Obama and the nation from his policies. Such thinking could be behind the resignation from her position as Secretary of State some time during the beginning of 2011.

 

   GOPElephantRight.jpg GOP Elephant Right image by kempiteStars01.gif picture by kempiteGOPElephantLeft.jpg GOP Elephant Left image by kempite

Republican House Pickups

Results bewtween 6:00 pm and 8:00 pm

  • Indiana 8                – Larry Buschon over Trent Van Haaften
  • Indiana 9                – Todd Young over Baron Hill
  • Florida 2                 – Steve Sutherland over Allen Boyd
  • Florida 8                 – Daniel Webster over Allen Grayson
  • Florida 22               – Allen West over Ron Klein
  • Florida 24               – Sandy Adams over Suzanne Kosmas
  • Virginia 2                – Scott Rigell over Glenn Nye
  • Virginia 5                – Robert Hurt over Tom Perriello
  • South Carolina 5  –  Mick Mulvaney over John  Spratt
  • Georgia 2                 – Mike Keown over Sanford Bishop
  • Georgia 8                 – Austin Scott over Jim Marshall
  • Ohio 1                        – Steve Chabot over Steve Driehaus
  • Ohio 15                     – Steve Stivers over Mary Jo Kilroy
  • Ohio 16                     – Jim Rannaci over John Boccieri
  • Ohio 18                     – Bob Gibbs over Zach Space
  • North Carolina 8  – Harold Johnson over Larry Kissel
  • West Virginia 1      – David McKinley over Mike Oliverio

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

**indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Georgia 12               – Raymond McKinney over John Barrow**
  • Indiana 2                  – Jackie Walorski over Joe Donnelly**
  • Kentucky 3              – Todd Lally over John Yarmuth
  • Kentucky 6              – Andy Barr over Ben Chandler
  • Virginia 9                 – Morgan Griffith over Rick Boucher
  • Virginia 11               – Keith Fimian over Gerry Connolly
  • Ohio 6                        – Bill Johnson over Charlie Wilson**
  • West Virginia 3      – Spiike Maynard over Nick Rahall
  • North Carolina 11   – Jeff Miller over Heath Schuler

 

Results bewtween 8:00 pm and 9:00 pm

  • Connecticut 4           – Dan Dibecella over Jim Hines 
  • Connecticut 5           – Sam Caliguiri over Chris Murphy
  • Illinois 11                   – Asam Kinzinger over Debbie Halvarson
  • Illinois 14                   – Randy Huttgren over Bill Foster
  • Illinois 17                  – Bobby Schilling over Ohil Hare
  • Maryland 1                – Andy Harris over Frank Kratovil
  • Massachusetts 10   -Jeff Perry over Bill Keating
  • New Hampshire 1   – Frank Guinta over Carol Shea Porter
  • New Hampshire 2   – Charlie Bass over Ann McLane Kuster
  • New Jersey 3            – Jon Runyan over John Adler
  • Pennsylvania 3        – Mike Kelly over Kethy Dahlkemper
  • Pennsylvania 7        – Bryan Lentz over Patrick Meehan
  • Pennsylvania 8        – Michael Ftzpatrick  over  Patrick Murphy
  • Pennsylvania 10     – Tom Marino over Chris Carney
  • Pennsylvania 11      – Lou Barletta over Paul Kanjorski
  • Tennessee 4               – Scott DeJarlas over Lincoln Davis
  • Tennessee 6              – Diane Black over Brett Carter
  • Tennessee 8              – Stephen Fincher over Roy Herron
  • Texas 17                     – Bill Flores over Chet Edwards
  • Florida 2                    – Steve Sutherland over Allen Boyd
  • Arkansas 1                – Rick Crawford over Chad Causey
  • Arkansas 2               –  Tim Griffin over Joyce Elliot

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Alabama 2                         – Martha Roby over Bobby Bright **
  • Massachusetts 4             – Sean Bielat over Barney Frank **
  • Mississippi 4                    – Steven Palazzo over Gene Taylor **
  • New Jersey 6                   – Anna Little over Frank Pallone **
  • New Jersey 12                 – Scott Sipprele over Rush Holt ** 
  • Pennsylvania 4               – Keith Rothfus over Jason Altmire **
  • Pennsylvania 12            – Tim Burns over Mark Critz **
  • Texas 15                           – Eddie Zamora over Ruben Hinjosa
  • Texas 25                          – Donna Campbell over Lloyd Doggett **

 

Results bewtween 9:00 pm and 10:00 pm

  • Colorado 3                  – Scott Tipton over John Salazar
  • Colorado 4                  – Cory Gardner over Betsy Markey
  • Louisaina 3                 – Jeff Landry over Ravi Sangisetty
  • Kansas 3                       – Kevin Yoder over Stephene Moore
  • Michigan 1                   – Dan Banishek over Gary McDowell
  • Michigan 7                  – Tim Walberg over Mark Schauer
  • New York 19              – Nan Hayworth over John Hall
  • New York 20             – Chris Gibson over Scott Murphy
  • New York 23             – Matt Doheny over Bill Owens
  • New York 29             – Tom Reed over Matt Zeller
  • New Mexico 2           – Harry Teague over Steve pearce
  • South Dakota -AL    – Kristi Noem over Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin
  • Texas 23                     – Quico Canseco over Ciro Rodrigues
  • Wisconsin 7              – Sean Duffy over Julie Lassa
  • Wisconsin 8              – Reid Ribble over Steve Kagen

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

  **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Colorado 7                 – Ryan Frazier over Ed Perlmutter**
  • Louisiana 2        – *Cao over Richmond **~(see note below)
  • Minnesota 1               – Randy Demmer over Tim Walz
  • Minnesota 7              –  Lee Byberg over Collin Peterson
  • Minnesota 8               – Chip Cravaack over Jim Oberstar**
  • Michigan 15               – Rob Steele over John Dingel**
  • New York 2                – John Gomez over Steve Israel**
  • New York 13             – Michael Grimm over Michael McMahon**
  • New York 24             – Richard Hanna over Michael Arcuri
  • New York 25             – Anne Marie Buerkle over Dan Maffei
  • New York 27             – Leonard Roberts over Brian Higgins
  • New Mexico 3           – Tom Mullins over Ben Ray Lujan
  • Rhode Island             – John Loughlin over David Cicilline**
  • Wisconsin 13             – Dan Kapanke over Ron Kind**

 

Results between 10:00 pm and 11:00 pm

  • Arizona 1                               – Paul Gosar over Ann Kirkpatrick
  • Arizona 5                              – David Schwiekert over Harry Mitchell
  • Arizona 8                              – Jesse Kelly over Gabrielle Giffords **
  • Idaho 1                                   – Raul Labrador over Walt Minnick
  • North Dakota -AL              – Rick Berg over Earl Pomeroy
  • Nevada 3                               – Joe Heck over Dina Titus

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Arizona 7                              – Ruth McClung over Raul Girjalva **
  • Iowa 3                                    – Brad Zaun over Leonard Boswell
  • Utah 2                                    – Morgan Philpot over Jim Mathison

 

Results between 11:00 pm and 12:00 am

  • California 11             – David Harmer over Jerry McNerny   
  • California 20            – Andy Vidak over Jim Costa
  • Washington 3          – Denny Heck over Jamie Herrera

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • California 18                   – Mike Berryhill over Dennis Cardoza
  • California 47                  – Van Tran over Lorretta Sanchez**
  • Washington 2                 – John Koster over Rick Larsen**
  • Washington 9                 – Dick Muri over Adam Smith
  • Oregon 4                          – Art Robinson over Peter DeFazio
  • Oregon 5                         – Scott Brunn over Kurt Schrader**

 

Results after 12:00 am

  • Hawaii 1                 – Charles Djou over Colleen Hanabusa
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The State of The Republican Party

Bookmark and Share   The state of the Republican Party is questionable but promising.

After a slew of victories at the end of ‘09, including the gain of County Executives, council seats, and  Republican Governors in New Jersey and Virginia, combined with the pick up of a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts at the beginning of 2010, the G.O.P. is alive and well. But the successes seen recently have largely come not because voters perceive the Republican Party to be superior. Much of our success was due more to the perception that the Democrat Party is inferior.

Since President Obama took office one year ago, Americans have seen him increase the national debt by $1.693 trillion, try to tax the air that we breathe with a Cap-and-Trade measure, attempt to have government takeover healthcare, initiate hundred of billions of dollars in spending to stimulate the economy and create jobs, break promises for missile defense systems, dither on his commitment to the war in Afghanistan, try to close down Guantanamo Bay, force foreign terrorists to be tried in civilian courts rather than military tribunal and bow down to foreign leaders.

Along the way Americans also got to see President Obama call police officers stupid, expand the size of government, appoint an endless array of unelected and unaccountable czars, participate in 28 fundraisers for Democrats that raised almost $28 million for political coffers, campaign for Democrats in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts, screw up security measures in the Transportation Security Authority, take more trips to foreign nations in his first year in office than any other U.S. President and we have listened to him apologize for America on foreign soil.

As for the rest of his Party, Americans watched Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid pass legislation under the cover of darkness and Democrat Senators and Congressman vote on legislation they never read. We also watched a process that was suppose to be bi-partisan and transparent, turn into one of the most partisan and clandestine operating governments in American history, seen pork barrel spending increase and lawmakers take hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes to vote for healthcare reforms that most Americans do not want.

Nothing embodied all that infuriated us more than the Democrat led attempt to have government takeover healthcare. That process contained examples of all of the above. It also hangs above Democrats like a sword of Damocles and represents the precise wrong direction Americans see our nation going in.

The result of all this liberal leadership has been an increase in unemployment as well as spending and our debt, lawmakers who are seemingly irresponsive to the wishes of the people and believe they are above the law, and a nation that has more doubt about our nation’s future than confidence in its future.

 So it should come as no surprise that voters are angry.

That anger has been to the detriment of Democrats, while Republicans were the beneficiaries of it. republicans are not the ones in control of government. They are the ones that Democrats have, up to now, chose to shut out. So it is only natural for voters to give credit where credit is due…….right in the laps of liberals.

But as we move ahead, the G.O.P. must not rebuild its majority simply because they aren’t Democrats. Such a rise to power would ultimately be short lived.

In the existing political atmosphere, the opportunities that exists for the Republican Party are golden. People are not pleased with the direction liberals are taking them in. Nationwide, Tea Party organizations have demonstrated loudly and are organizing rapidly. Their goal is to get government off their back. They do not want the government making their healthcare decisions and determining when and where they can receive it. They do not want government in the business of business. They do not want G.M. to stand for Government Motors. They don’t want their children’s futures sold out from under them with endless spending or with pieces of overreaching legislation that are over 2,000 pages long and have not been read but are passed because a majority of lawmakers took bribes for their reelection bids.

These Tea Party patriots are not pro-Republican. They hold the G.O.P. accountable for going along with Democrats and for not reducing debt under George Bush. They are not fans of the G.O.P. . For them, simply being not as bad as liberals does not make Republicans deserving of praise and support.

 And they’re right.

That is why we must reinvent our commitment to the principles of our Party and the founding principles of our nation.

As a Party we must bring forth a concrete foundation to run on. A foundation that addresses all that has voters up in arms. We must also not fear that commitment sounding “too strong”. No matter how Republicans address our nation’s problems, liberals will call the G.O.P. “extreme”. But we must remember that our purpose is not to sound like Democrats or to please liberals. Our purpose is to solve problems and be true to the most sacred American document in existence………………the American Constitution.

Americans of every stripe and party affiliation have become acutely aware of the unconstitutional legislative conduct that our process has been advancing. Many Americans are aware of the federal governments overreaching and excesses. They see how states rights are trampled. They are also aware of how our government seems to reward mediocrity and punish success. So now is the time for the Republican Party to come before the nation with a pledge. It is a pledge to recommit ourselves to the Constitution. This pledge must outline several areas of focus in which all candidates will commit to and collectively fight for, as a Party and as individual legislators.

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The Pledge of Commitment

We, the people, commit ourselves to the non-negotiable demands of human dignity,…… — Equal JusticeFreedom of SpeechLimited Government PowerPrivate Property RightsReligious Tolerance and — Respect for women, life and the Rule of Law.

We are committed to a legislative process that does not propose or pass any legislative agenda or initiative that is of questionable constitutional integrity or inequitable, overreaching or excessive.

For these reasons, we dedicate ourselves and our Party to reigning in the excesses of federal spending and unjust control. As such we are committed to the following 10 initiatives and goals.

  • All proposed bills, amendments and spending measures must contain the section of the Constitution that provides the constitutional basis for its consideration and passage.
  • The 2.8% Congressional pay raise that the Democrat led Congress passed in 2009 will be repealed and Congress will then subsequently reduce their salaries by an additional 15%.
  • Link the salaries of federal legislators to the economy they manipulate.
  • Institute a four year federal hiring freeze on all non-essential emergency managemnet security, defense and medical related operations .
  • Reduce the federal payroll by eliminating non-essential, emergency management, security, defense and medical positions through attrition.
  • Obliterate the existing arcane, oppressive loophole ridden, unfair tax code and adopt a one-rate, Flat Tax Reform Act that does not ask any one American to pay a greater percentage than any other American. One rate for one America.
  • Dismantle the Departments of Commerce, Energy, Education and Housing and Urban Development.
  • Make healthcare and health insurance more accessible and more affordable by reducing the healthcare bureaucracy and improving the existing free market based healthcare system, expanding portability and adopting tort reforms.
  • Make no apologies for our defense of freedom and prosecute enemy combatants in military tribunals, not civilian courts.
  • Secure our borders and repair our broken immigration and immigration enforcement laws.

With these legislative goals, we hereby commit ourselves to restoring constitutional integrity to the federal government and seek to be more responsible stewards of the offices the people elect us to.

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This Pledge of Commitment is a reform minded agenda that curbs the excesses of government, respects states rights and personal freedoms and demonstrates our desire to have a government that lives within its means and allows the people the means to achieve personal prosperity.

It is time that we accept the fact that the founding principles of yesterday were responsible for our nations strength in the past and are key to our nation’s and Party’s success in the future.

As the next year unfolds, with primaries and political debates, the next leaders of our Party will emerge. Currently, we are in transition. With many highly competitive Republican primaries taking place, slowly the new guard is replacing the old guard and the next generation of conservative leaders will slowly but surely emerge.

Until that time, with no leading figure, with no one face to represent us, it is important that all Republicans take this Pledge of Commitment. Without one great messenger to represent us, it is imperative that we act on the 10 goals outlined, together as one. Unity in our pledge is imperative to our ability to distinguish ourselves from Democrats as we move forward.

We are now just months away from the 2010 midterm elections. Currently, we have the chance for big gains. But these gains will only be realized if we stand for something and be more than naysayers. Our Pledge of Commitment represents very specific measures that indicate a new and clear direction for our nation. With this new direction, if we are united, the ripples that were set in motion by the perfect storm that swept a Republican into the United States Senate from Massachusetts, can be turned into waves that can sweep Republicans into office from New York to California.

As it stands now, of the 37 senate contests being held this November, 19 are occupied by Republicans and 18 by Democrats. If the G.O.P. can get on message and demonstrate how and why we are different from Democrats and why voters should have faith in us, our Party is on track to keeping all 19 Republican seats in our column.   At the same time, we are on track to take 7 seats away from Democrats……Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Nevada, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania.

If strong opponents emerge in Washington State and New York, Democrat Patty Murray’s seat could be in jeopardy as well as Kirsten Gillibrand’s seat in New York.  That would be 9 seats, for a total of 50. That’s  not enough to break a tie with Vice President Joe Biden as the President of the Senate, but add to that former Democrat but now current Independent Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut who has recently stated his possible willingness to become a Republican, and that would bring us to 51 Republican seats and control.

Another race that could come into play is California.

51 or 52 seats are unlikely though.

New York is becoming increasingly in play as Harold Ford, Jr. starts beating Giilibrand up,  but is not there yet.  republican susan molinari needs to enter the race.   Washington is probably out of reach, the California race is currently static, and Joe Lieberman won‘t switch until he  absolutely sure that  whatever move he makes assures him of being in hichever Party maintains majority status.

But a lock on picking up seven seats from Democrats is becoming very real. That would reduce liberal’s influence significantly and bring the balance of power much closer with 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans.

In the House, things are even more unstable for Democrats.

With 256 seats held by Democrats and 178 by Republicans (Democrat Rep. Robert Wexler’s Florida seat is vacant but sure to stay in Democrat hands) the G.O.P is looking like it will pick up a minimum of 27 seats which would bring a more balanced 205 Republicans to 230 Democrats. If all the stars were aligned in our favor and we successfully nationalized our campaigns, I see another 13 seats that could be in play. Remarkably, that would change the make up of the House and produce 218 Republican seats to 217 Democrat seats.

Taking control of either branch of Congress is not likely but it is possible. Whether that is achieved or not will depend on how strongly we unite as a Party and convince voters that we are devoted to our Pledge of Commitment. If we can convince voters of our sincere desires to take a more equitable, honest, transparent, and constitutional approach to governance, than even if we don’t take majority control of Congress, we will have made significant gains and put a stop to the partisan dictatorship that is currently reigning supreme in Washington, D.C. .

In addition to a strong, united campaign based on our Pledge of Commitment, strategic and logistical influences will be essential.

As we move ahead our Party must

  • Unite and get better organized, especially in the area of networking
  • Hammer home our anti-establishment, anti government sentiment and undying commitment to freedom and prosperity.
  • Add an emotional component to every issue.
  • Create new funding channels, including large numbers of small financial donations.
  • Use technology to organize activists, increase transparency, register voters, and change minds
  • Invite ideas from the public and develop a way to identify, develop and publicize the best ones.
  • Turn talk radio listeners into donors and activists and provide them with constructive and productive ways to help local candidates and national causes.
  • Tap into anti-government constituencies ( i.e.: Libertarians and Tea Partiers)
  • Poke fun at the Administrations promised “change” and their calls for transparency in government. Mock the “hope” the President was to bring.
  • Day and night, night and day, reinforce Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid as the faces and leaders of the Liberal Party.
  • Exploit all Democrat weaknesses.
  • Develop clear messages and have policy makers become message makers.
  • Create media markets and operating systems to inspire, generate and direct activism.
  • Work closely with all grassroots organizations.
  • Relentlessly exploit the weaknesses of key Democrat leaders.
  • Put new blood forward and present new ideas. Let voters know that old guard Republicans are on their way out.

The task at hand is daunting.

It took us years to find ourselves in minority status and it will take some time to get back to majority status. But Democrats are helping to measure the amount of time our journey takes in months rather than years.

The one thing in Democrats favor is the timing in which voter anger has been realized.

In 1994, when Republicans took control of both branches of Congress for the first time in four decades, the anti-incumbent sentiments were not fully understood until after the mid-term, when Democrat heads rolled. President Obama however, has the fortune of learning about voter dissatisfaction, almost a year before his mid-term elections.

The fact that the President has gone a full week without having a single major speech about healthcare indicates that he finally understands that people are not happy with his agenda and the way things are going. Further evidence of this new found understanding is his sudden attempts to sound fiscally responsible by trying to enforce a very limited spending freeze. On that, liberals are annoyed by the number of pet projects that would be killed by that move and conservatives are screaming about how too little and too late the President’s concerns with spending are. It’s like a fat man claiming to be on a diet because he drank a can of Slim Fast after a six course, 20,000 calorie meal.

But President Obama will surely begin to shift his focus. Since the voters spoke in Massachusetts he has begun to relentlessly attack any and all unpopular institutions, such as banks. It will be our job to remind voters why he has suddenly changed his agenda and what he changes it from while he still holds on to the hope of passing a massive government takeover of healthcare and some of the greatest transfers of power and wealth in the history of mankind. We must remind voters that President Obama and loyal liberal Democrats promised to “fundamentally change America” and then we must demonstrate that those fundamental changes were to the application of the U.S. Constitution which made us the greatest nation in the world………at least until he tried to make his fundamental changes.

Clearly the state of the Republican Party is promising. Many Republican leaders have learned from their past mistakes. Many who did not, are being flushed out through the primary process while others are retiring. Democrats are imploding and voters are open to viable alternatives. So the future is promising. What is questionable though is our ability to convincingly become that viable alternative and our willingness to roll up our sleeves and do what needs to be done to take advantage of the promising future that lies ahead.

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The Week’s Best & Worst In Politics-Winners & Losers

Politics 24/7 Winners and Losers

 

LOSERS

Politics 24/7 Thumbs Down

Loser ScozzafavaDede ScozzafavaPhotobucketPhotobucketPhotobucket

The NY State Assemblywoman and Republican nominee for Congress in NY’s 23rd CD, was outed as closet liberal, crashed, burned and decided to take everyone out with her.  She withdrew from the race on Saturday & endorsed the Democrat nominee over the Conservative candidate, Republican Doug Hoffman.  He lost in a narrow race and gave Nancy Pelosi an extra seat in Congress.  This woman is not just an Assemblywoman, she’s an ass& come next year, someone better get her ass out of the New York State Assembly.

 cao 

Joseph Cao  PhotobucketPhotobucketPhotobucket

The freshman Republican Congressman from Louisiana was the only, “the only” Republican to support the Democrat’s big government takeover of health care and insurance.  What he saw in it which 215 other Republicans didn’t, is hard to say.  Perhaps you see something else when looking from the left.  But to look from the left you have to be on the left and that’s where this guy belongs.  If he fails to find the faults in this 2,000 page, 111 bureaucracy creating, 1.3 trillion dollar costing, freedom steeling, job costing, tax hiking, care rationing novel, than he is a Democrat or he is missing a chromosome.  Either way……….Ciao, Cao!

corzinesmall

 Governor-reject Jon CorzinePhotobucketPhotobucketPhotobucketPhotobucketPhotobucket+

This man was to New Jersey, what Katrina and Governor Kathleen Blanco were to New Orleans.  This golden parachuted, wealthy Wall Street wizard purchased a senate seat only to turn around and buy the governor’s mansion so that he could use the same kind of financial expertise as Bernie Madoff.  He had nothing to run on, so he tried to turn the election into a referendum on President Obama.  But in the end, voters knew that a vote for Corzine, was like buying a ticket on the Hindenburg.  This despicably deplorable Governor should be punished, not just voted out of office.  Good riddance!!!!

creigh

Creigh DeedsPhotobucketPhotobucketPhotobucketPhotobucket

Creigh Deeds?  More like crepe paper.  This loser was blown away like tissue paper in a wind tunnel.  His liberal ideas fell flat, his campaign never got off the ground and he cost Democrats all across Virginia dearly.  This guy wasn’t as bad a candidate as New Jersey Governor-reject, Jersey Jon,  but he practically chalked up a negative vote total.  He was an embarrassment, but most Democrats are.  Virginian’s just didn’t want to let this one do to their state, what Corzine did to New Jersey.  Still so pathetic was Deeds, that he should be forced to pay a fine to the DNC for defamation of Party.

RedWhiteBlue.gif picture by kempite

WINNERS

POLITICS 24/7 Thumbs Up

Bob McDonnell Governor-elect Bob McDonnellPhotobucketPhotobucketPhotobucketPhotobucket

He ran a good campaign, made people believe in him, never miss-stepped and had coattails so big that he swept in a Republican Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General as well as 5 new Republicans in the Virginia House of Delegates.  If Republicans aren’t coming back, someone has to tell Bob McDonnell and the voters of Virginia that.

Governor-elect Chris Christie

Governor-elect Chris ChristiePhotobucketPhotobucket

He didn’t win so much as he didn’t lose.  42% of those who pushed the button by Christie’s name, said they really voted against Jon Corzine, not for Chris Christie.  Still, after blowing a double-digit, Bob McDonnell-like lead, he won the election and becomes the first Republican to win statewide office in New Jersey since 1997.  The people may not have thought he was the greatest thing since sliced bread, but they are behind him and hopeful that he will be able to clean up the wreckage that Democrats and Jon Corzine have strewn across the state.

President ObamaPresident ObamaPhotobucketPhotobucket

Election Day was a setback for him.  Virginia and especially New Jersey were a referendum on the President and his Party, but after Saturday night’s landmark vote for the government takeover of health insurance and care that he wants, he ends the week up.  The President put a lot into this vote.  So much political capital was spent by him, that his reputation was on the line.  Had this not passed the House, the President would have been severely wounded and Democrats would not have wanted anything to do with him as they approach the midterm elections.  He lucked out by 2 votes.  This week he must be seen as a winner.

nancyleftSpeaker Nancy PelosiPhotobucketPhotobucketPhotobucket

She delivered!  It took a strong hold over her minions and on power to keep the legislative loose cannons in line.  Pelosi would have liked to get more votes and she failed to convince many who were not Democrats of the merits of her health care takeover , but she said she would get it passed and she did. Getting the vast majority of her conference to stand with her on a vote as contentious and questionable as this, took a masterful sense of politics——closed-door  politics,—- to pull this off——and Pelosi did.  She is a lying con artist but she is a good one.

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For Republicans Only: Rebuilding and Reinvigorating the Nation and Party-PART II

Bookmark and Share    In the first part of this series we pointed out that the devastating losses of 2006 and 2008 and the loss of the White House produced a severe shortage of prominent Republican figures on the national stage. reprebrand1Without an individual whom can be that face and without the party putting forth cohesive policy paths, on all levels, the G.O.P. is adrift in a turbulent sea of waves created by a torrent of liberal initiatives.

This situation led us to establish a few things.

First we must get everyone on the same page and identify the problems that face the nation and their causes and then paint a picture of those problems that can be depicted in the form of a common enemy. It was determined that we could easily call that enemy “the government” and show it to be the common antagonist in our lives that all Americans can rally with Republicans against.

We also established that we need a figure who without being a threat to any other Republican’s presidential ambitions, can provide the national voice for the message that the G.O.P. needs to get out.

That person was suggested in Part I, but putting aside exactly who is best suited to be the messenger, let us focus on the message.

Under President Obama, and the Democrat led Congress, it is quite apparent that a significant portion of society is finally beginning to question just how much control they want any American federal government to have over their lives.

This thinking is not new. Such sentiments have been eroding at the popularity of both the Republican and Democrat parties. It also accounts for the fairly significant and deep rooted, loyal base, of national support that Dr. Ron Paul, a Texas congressman has. Even though Ron Paul caucuses with Republicans and runs as one, he is at heart, a libertarian and it is to the libertarian party that we have lost many Republicans.

We must get them back and we can do so if we combat the government enemy by stressing less government, less government fiats upon the people that limit their freedoms, more economic and educational opportunities and more ethical political leaders.

As previously mentioned, this approach, as it was under Ronald Reagan, describes government as the enemy……the common enemy that the G.O.P. can inspire the American people to rally behind in the fight against the enemy.

By making it clear that while we are not proposing that there be no government, we must make it understood that as government is creating more problems than it is solving and spends more than it ever takes in, it must be curbed. It must be reduced in size and scope in order to stop costing the American people more than it is worth and to be effective in those areas which it should and could be effective.

With the government now owning financial institutions, car companies and getting more and more into the business of business, people are becoming increasingly skeptical. This encroaching government control is made even more threatening with the liberal passage of such things as Cap-and-Trade and now socialized medicine. Even senior citizens are beginning to oppose the administrations attempt to control their treatment and coverage in the face of aging and declining health.

All of this will not only begin to deteriorate our national quality of life, it will also start costing more. The more control that government has, the more money it needs to implement and maintain those controls

This message must and can be conveyed in many different ways and in regards to just about every issue that comes up. But in our message, as we unite Americans in combating our “common enemy”, we must also produce alternatives. To gain the peoples trust and recapture the majority in Congress, we must offer policy alternatives that flow from principles. Those principles are the same ones found in the Constitution and they are the principles of freedom. They are also the principles which many former Republicans who are now libertarians have come to realize we are drifting away from with increased speed as everyday passes by.

We must demonstrate that the Democrats are trying to play God by creating a centralized government power structure that overrides state’s rights and individual’s rights and has a hand in every single aspect of our lives.

But before Republicans oppose any action of the President or the Democrat controlled congress, they must have their policy alternative to offer at the same time.

This must be done in such a way that everyone from Republican Governors, and state legislative leaders, members of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives are all on the same page and speaking the same policy message and theme. To coordinate this, our Republican Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell and our leader of the House, Republican Minority Leader John Boehner must work together. Coordination must also be made with the state Republican organizations and the Republican Governors Association and its mayoral counterparts. The RNC would be the perfect entity for such coordination and through them the RGA, NRSC and NRCC could all be on message and pushing for the same policies. Policies that could be a part of what Republicans could call “The American Agenda”.

In shaping that American Agenda the G.O.P must also politically incorporate other objectives into it.

They must rebrand themselves and capitalize on the displeasure with Democrat overreach, and their corporate welfare and dependency politics. This can be done by showing that the new GOP is smarter, younger and more diverse and more in touch with the founding principles that have to date made America great. In addition to having that one trusted, proven and articulate face of the party conveying our national message, allow the Sarah Palins, Eric Cantors, Bobby Jindals, Aaron Schocks, Michelle Bachmann’s, Cathy McMorris Rodgers‘, John Thunes and a host of other vital young Republicans to be in the forefront. Flood the market with fresh faces that have a clean slate and smart, succinct messages. Then deliver the fresh, smart and forward looking message that will be contained in our “American Agenda”.

That agenda should contemplate the adoption of some policy risks and give thought to making some changes that demonstrate our faith in freedom, attracts young voters and changes the national conversation.

Such can be done by crafting our American Agenda with the following directions:

A). – Consider the legalization of certain drugs :

-Demonstrate that we know that freedom means people have a right to do what they like with their bodies whether it is good or bad so long as it does not take the lives of others or infringe on the rights of others.

B). – Support Domestic Unions :

-Shake everything up and get the state out of the marriage business by allowing churches, mosques and temples to marry those they choose. That is the business of their God, not the federal government.  At the same time, do not seek to have government redefine marriage.  Allow the government to preserve the religious sanctity of marriage while also preserving its constitutional civic responsibilities and perform Domestic Unions that ensure that people who unite contractually are treated equally before the law, as the Constitution requires.

Aside from “shaking things up”, we must  address healthcare and present a renewed commitment on some of those issues the party is traditionally strongest on and implement policy solutions that demonstrate our convictions to our nations Constitution.

An approach to the issue of healthcare should be one that is not based on the failed socialist policy initiatives that our nation has shunned and fought against. That would lead us to adopt some of , but not the only, following constitutionally driven approaches into our “American Agenda”.

C). – HealthCare Opportunities :

-Offer the type of “change” in healthcare that we can live with and have the federal government adjust what it can and should change on the issue. For instance (1) .-Tort Reform.   It will have a drastic effect on the rising cost of healthcare in America. (2).- Portability. The current lack of portability prevents people from keeping their coverage when they change jobs or relocate and often they can not continue with the same coverage they have throughout their lives as other changes in their lives occur. Federal action that would allow for the portability of health insurance would solve this problem and help to stabilize insurance markets, reduce costs and ultimately reduce the fluctuating number of uninsured in America.  ( 3). – Enact a policy toolbox of federal initiatives that states could include and federal funding to the states would be linked to success in reaching the goals. With federal legislative guidelines and financial support, state experimentation would produce a myriad of various solutions and in time the best solutions for each state will evolve into better and stronger healthcare availability options for all states. (4).- Incentivise good health and fitness by offering limited tax credits for gym memberships and fitness equipment.

On those issues that the G.O.P has consistently been strong on, the new “American Agenda” must reinforce those strengths with the following items:

D). – Means-test Everything :

-If any federal social programs are to exist, they must be designed to help those whom are truly needy. Government welfare programs like Medicare for the rich are unreasonable and unacceptable ands we need to make that clear. For those who will rightfully point out that constitutional grounds for any “federal social programs”, are at the very least questionable, they must understand the need for compromises that can help begin to change attitudes and minds. This is one such compromise. If we are to have such programs they must not be abused or overextended.

E). – Taxpayer Bill of Rights & Balanced Budget :

-After the current massive expansion and growth of government by Democrats, people will want government to shrink. By creating a Taxpayer Bill of Rights that will lock government revenues in at population plus inflation as measured by acceptable cost of living indices we can assure people that we will be at the very least stop government from growing. Then add limits on national debt that would force cuts and stop passing the national credit card and its bill to future generations.

F). – Environmental Security not Global Warming: “More Obvious Conservation Methods, Not More Taxes” :

-Call it environmental security and dedicate ourselves to protecting and preserving our environment by funding such things as geo-engineering and sequestration technology but not by sucking the finances of the American people during times of economic hardship for an Al Gore hypothesis that can only be conclusively proven through the evidence produced by the passage of another million years. The G.O.P. must highlight the undeniable, rational pro-environment record that we have extending as far back as Theodore Roosevelt and we must get in the forefront of the issue by demonstrating that the historic Cap-and-Trade measure adopted by liberals is more than irrational, it is dangerous, ineffective and another example of overreaching control that taxes us on air while destroying the long-term health of our economy and individual’s economic prosperity.

G). – Enforce Our Fundamental Belief In National Sovereignty and Freedom :

-The administrations “globalization” policy is a threat to us on many levels. It puts our security, sovereignty, economy and national heritage at risk. We must therefore (1). – Implement an Open Arms-Secure Borders Comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill that welcomes and protects legal immigrants, secures our borders and eliminates the tolerance for illegal immigrants who weigh heavily on our law enforcement capabilities, emergency services and economic prosperity. (2). – Declare our united support for an English First, Not English Only Bill. (3).- Make it clear that our government will not excuse, or make excuses for, those enemies of freedom who hinder progress in areas of our interests or seek to inflict harm on us or our allies. The electorate must be clear on the fact that Republicans do not buy in to the Democrat approach to foreign policy which leads us to believe that Americans should feel guilty for defending our nation, the cause of freedom or our national sovereignty, heritage or interests. (4).- Seek to curtail the use of Eminent Domain abuses by eliminating federal funding for any state or municipal projects that use eminent domain to acquire land.  It must be made clear that the constitutional right to property cannot be abrdged.

H). – Energy Independence :

-The government must take advantage of all available sound domestic energy sources while promoting the independent study of advanced uses for clean, renewable energy technologies.

I). – Reform How Government Does Business And Limit Election Spending

-Demonstrate that we not only acknowledge the political culture of corruption and shady tactics but that we stand against it with reforms to prevent it. (1).- Eliminate the public financing option for federal elections. Make it clear that we do not want taxpayers spending money for politicians to lie us in attempt to get our vote. (2.) – At the same time, place a spending limit on all elections for all federal offices. (3.)- Adopt the Enumerated Powers Act which forces all legislative initiatives and federal spending to be supported by the clause in the Constitution that proves it to be a proper measure for the federal government to undertake. (4.) – Pass a bill drafting amendment that prohibits spending measures and regulations that are unrelated to that bill from being tacked on to it.

The Republican Party needs to rebuild itself with an agenda that includes of all the above points.

If it can get everyone on the same page, rebrand itself with fresh faces and trustworthy policy directions and a unified message in 2010 then they can at the very least make inroads to a strong eventual comeback.

With the right people, policies and message we can demonstrate that by trying to be like European nations with unfunded liabilities and the bureaucratization of everything we may actually become like them and spend decades enduring 10 percent unemployment rates and trying to maintain our national identity. We must use our policies and messages to capitalize on the dissatisfaction that Democrats are creating and demonstrate that raising taxes and spending other people’s money is not the best way for our country to go.

Now is the time for us to offer up a second revolution that is made up with ideas that puts an end to bureaucratic governmental licentiousness and unleash entrepreneurship all while offering leadership with a view towards freedom, pragmatism and common sense, all of which the left has abandoned.

But as is the case with any good strategy, its success lies in its implementation and the methods and tactics needed to see it through. In the next part of this series we will address those plans and reveal the logistics needed to grow the seeds of a political revolution to restore freedom to the freest people the world has ever known.

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Click the image above to read the first part of For Republicans Only 

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Delaware Democrats Defeated During Regional Republican Resurgence

Bookmark and Share    As the American colonies were being established, Delaware was the least coveted territory of the time. It produced no tobacco or rice, it had no great port and it had few settlers. William Penn of Pennsylvania was delawareelectionactually granted the deed to Delaware as payment for a debt owed to him by King Charles II. However a failure to fill out the proper paperwork made Penn’s claim to Delaware invalid. At the same time Lord Baltimore was claiming Delaware to be part of Maryland.  The 37,000 settlers in the disputed territory didn’t want to be under Penn’s rule because he failed to protect them from pirates and they did not want to be under the oppressive burden that Lord Baltimore’s routine tax collection resulted in.

After a long dispute over which colony Delaware belonged to, both Lord Baltimore and William Penn felt that obtaining the territory was not worth any real effort so they gave up and the settlers of Delaware got to run their own colony.

Even though nothing can take anything away from Delaware’s contributions to our country and its beauty, today Delaware is still not one of the most prominent places in America.  It is unique in that it has developed a favorable corporate tax structure that makes it a great place to have a paper office in. As such, at one point in time somewhere around a third of all corporations on both the NY Stock Exchange and what was the American Stock Exchange were all incorporated in Delaware and paying taxes to the state. But other than that and the fact that the Biden family is beginning to surpass the DuPont family in political prominence, Delaware really doesn’t offer much to discuss. At least not until this past Tuesday.

On Tuesday, tiny little, hardly mentioned Delaware may have just become the American political breaking point and a national echo chamber of political opinion.

Roughly one month ago Delaware’s Senate President, Thurman Adams died at 80 years of age. Adams was a Democrat and the senate seat he occupied was held by Democrats for 40 years.

In a state dominated by Democrats it was anticipated that Democrats would continue to hold this and fill out the expired term after winning a special election. That opinion was made even clearer when Polly Adams Mervine was selected as the Democrat nominee to replace Thurman Adams. Polly Adams Mervine is Thurman Adams daughter.

In a state as small as Delaware legacy politics is hard to overcome. The DuPont family spent years in political favor there and now the Biden family can do no wrong there. Such is why Joe Biden’s son Beau Biden was elected the state’s Attorney General.

So seeing as how Polly wanted a crack at her fathers senate seat and that she had plenty of money to throw into the race, she was the odds on favorite, without any question or doubt.

But this past Tuesday Polly Adams Mervine lost the election.

To say she lost is actually an understatement. In this case, she did not just lose, in truth, her Republican opponent, Joe Booth, buried her deeper than her recently departed father.

With more than 60% of the vote Joe Booth beat Mervine by more than 30%.

Despite this senate seat being in a heavily democratic district and in a heavily democratic state which is the home state of the newly elected Vice President, and despite the fact that Mervine was the daughter of the man whose seat she was running for and even though she spent $52,000 to her Republican opponent’s $20,000, Mervine and Delaware Democrats were trounced.

I will not conclusively state that this marks the beginning of the end for Democrats. This is one small state legislative election in one small state but given all the factors that were in the Democrats favor here, for them to have lost under those circumstances does not bode well.

It would seem to me that even in the diminutive and dependable Democrat state of Delaware, dissatisfaction is beginning to develop. The result is a backlash that has created a conservative resurgence that is turning the likely into the unlikely.

The state’s only statewide elected Republican, Congressman Mike Castle, is even feeling the effects of conservative resurgence.

After becoming one of only eight Republicans to support the Crap-and-Tax environmental hoax that will tax Americans on the air that they breathe, he is finding himself to be the target of extraordinary protestations, especially from fellow Republicans who may not be ready to re-nominate him for Congress or support him in any general election.

All of this is indicative of signs that the winds of change are picking up and that they are not blowing the sails of liberalism in the direction that Democrats want them to go in.

It is said that what happens in Las Vegas stays in Vegas but Delaware is no Las Vegas. It is too small a state to contain everything that happens there within its limited space. And we are already seeing the signals that what is happening in Delaware is spreading.

At Delaware’s northern points is New Jersey. There, voters of that state are already overwhelmingly rejecting its Democrat Governor and preparing to send Republican Chris Christie to Trenton.

To the south of Delaware, on the Delmarva Peninsula, Virginia is leaning toward the election of another Republican to replace Democrat incumbent and DNC Chairman Tim Kaine.

Nationally, as the President sees both approval for him and his agenda plummet, it is not hard to understand the building tide against Democrats that we see in the Mid-Atlantic, Mid-West or anywhere else in the country. But perhaps we should not be surprised to see the best example of this trend demonstrate itself in the tiny and quiet domain of Democrat dominated Delaware. It is after all nicknamed “The First State” so perhaps after having the honor of being the first of the 13 original states to ratify the U.S. Constitution it is also claiming the honor of being the first state to initiate the change our nation needs.

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For Republicans Only: A plan for rebuilding and reinvigorating a down and out party.

Bookmark and Share     It may seem a shame or insincere to have to be political and develop political strategies to get anything done in American politics. But when you plunge into the sea of politics you better be willing to swim. This does not mean that repboatayou can’t be sincere about the issues and their effects on the American people but it does mean that if your gonna swim with the sharks you’d be wise to put on your flippers instead of your running shoes. And that is what this article deals with. It is meant to discuss the political reality behind the Republican Party’s ability to get back into the game and the tools and the political strategies it must utilize to lead again.

As we look ahead you do not have to be a rocket scientist to see that the G.O.P. cannot afford a third consecutive election cycle where they lose another 20 or more seats in congress or any more governorships or state legislative chambers. To do so in 2010 will be lethal.

That is when the census takes place and redistricting begins. By losing more congressional seats we will be making it that much harder to reach a majority in 2012. And to lose any more sway in the states will mean that Democrats will have the opportunity to gerrymander Republicans into minority status for a decade or more.

So Republicans can’t wait for the presidential election of 2012 to help them increase their numbers. They must make their gains now and 2010.

In 2009 it looks like Republicans will do well and pick up Governors in New Jersey and Virginia. But for 2010, the G.O.P. needs to get on message and into gear now.

But how do we expect to make a significant run towards majority status when we will be needing it most in 2010?

Sadly, I do not see signs of a national Republican strategy and message shaping up. After supporting Ken Blackwell for

Mike Steele

Mike Steele

 RNC Chairman, I am not privy to the leaderships plans but from the outside I see no movement in the direction that we must take.

We could just sit back and allow the Democrats to get comfortable. That is how the G.O.P. lost control of things in the first place. After the first four years in control of both congress and the White House, complacency and the lack of a need to get the power that they had, allowed many to stop keeping their noses clean and to cease going that extra mile to make our case.

The same fate will eventually come of the current liberal ruling regime in Washington, D.C..

To a degree, Democrats understand this and that is why they are rushing , at a breakneck pace, to consolidate their power immediately by entrenching some of the most expansive and extensive socialized programs we have ever seen into government. They want to do so before the tide turns on them.

But to regain control of congress essentially by default will not make for a meaningful reason for Republicans to be in control or for an enduring leadership role that will last for any significant length of time.

So what are Republicans to do?

For that answer we should look back to a similar time. A time when Republicans were down and out. It was 1980 and much like now, we had a President who on the national stage spoke softly and carried a very small stick. He was a President who also saw government as the solution to all our problems but had policies which essentially drained every dime out of the American economy and made it so that the government and its people could not afford to do anything about anything.

To counter the Democrats and the “days of malaise” that they had us in, the G.O.P. revamped their image in the eyes of the people and became the innovative and anti-establishment, anti-government party. And they did so by presenting easily understood alternative solutions to those being bandied about by the left. They were also able to focus a spotlight on a common enemy that most Americans related to. This common enemy became something to rally against with Republicans.

Common enemies are a very powerful source of unity and support.

President George H.W. Bush spent the first four and a half years of his eight years in office riding a wave of support because terrorists proved themselves to be an undeniably severe threat to Americans and therefore a common enemy to rally against. This was not some political creation. It was a national reality and while terrorists still remain a collective concern, the lack of thousands of Americans falling victim to them again all at once, has made them a less powerful rallying cry these days but hopefully not any less of a concern.

arepleader10In the 80’s, the Reagan Revolution successfully united a majority of Americans by condensing all the problems that we were facing into a different enemy. Reagan successfully defined government as the enemy. And who was in total control of government? The Democrats.

This theme, this rallying cry, allowed Americans to see that government was not the solution, it was the problem. Over time, the approach increased Republican numbers at every level. From city councils, to state legislatures and governors mansions, slowly but surely, Republicans increased in numbers until a clear majority of state houses and state executive offices were dominated by Republican majorities.

But this message was not just meant for the purpose of having majority control. It was also meant to make a beneficial difference. It was meant to use that power to reduce the size and scope of the government enemy. To reduce government’s tax burden on the people. To eliminate the barriers to economic growth, job opportunities and entrepreneurial expansion. It was also used to rebuild our military capabilities and restore America’s role on the international stage. Defeating the communist enemy was another reason.

With Republican control came the change America needed and that is exactly what the G.O.P. must demonstrate to Americans again. We must convince them that we are currently headed down a road that our nation once ran away from. The road that was plotted for our nation under Jimmy Carter whose increased regulations, increased taxation and government interference created both a deficit of personal economic empowerment and of national morale.

That same Carter-like approach to our federal government is taking place today under President Obama. And at a time when we are again experiencing tough economic times, the liberal tax and spend approach is again making things tougher for all of us.

This case must be made to the people but it cannot be effectively made with an algebraic equation or Ross Perot bar graph. It must be made through a concise, everyday translation that everyone can relate to.

In 1980, during one presidential debate, Ronald Reagan discussed the historic and disastrous inflation rate that the Carter administration brought to bear on us. He spoke of a little girl who when shopping with her mother saw a doll that she fell in love with and desperately wanted. She pleaded with her mother to buy it for her but her mother told her that she had to earn it and with her allowance she must save for it. The former Governor and soon to be President continued to explain that the little girl saved her money until finally she had enough to buy it. But when she went back to the store, the price had increased and she did not have enough money after all. So, disappointed, she went back home hoping to save enough money to buy it the following week. When that next week came, she went back to the store with enough to cover the new purchase price only to discover that the price of that same doll went up again. Reagan described how this disappointing cycle repeated itself for a month and he further explained that this was the effect of inflation and the misery index which was created during the Carter years.

He stated that this was the result of the economic condition that we got ourselves into under the Carter administration and that as hard as we tried to keep our heads above water, the rushing tide of rising costs was a never ending cycle that kept on putting everything out of our reach and like that little girl whose so desired doll was always out of reach because of inflation, so too was the American dream becoming out of reach for all individual Americans.

Reagan helped people to relate to our troubles by encapsulating all of our nation’s problems down to the face of an innocent little girl. And in doing so he made Americans believe that he understood them and their problems.

It allowed him to capture the hearts, minds and votes of the American people.

This is the approach that we again need. Republicans must reconnect and demonstrate that they relate to those not in the political class.

But who is to be the messenger and where are the innovative approaches to come from?

Eric Cantor

Eric Cantor

In looking for such a person we can easily see that the House of Representatives is hardly a place where such a face of national stature can be easily be created. The few promising figures in congress who have the innovative minds and anti-establishment mentality that we need must rise to a higher level of prominence before they have a realistic shot at being the right national messenger. Congressmen like Eric Cantor of Ohio, Mike Pence of Indiana and Paul Ryan of Wisconsin are perfect examples of the type of capable, competent leaders we need. But until they are in a position of greater power and prominence like that of a Governor or Senator, there is little chance for them to command the amount of attention that they need to effectively and properly deliver a nationally captivating message

Mike Pence

Mike Pence

For Cantor, Ryan and Pence, the G.O.P. would be wise to start making room for them as Senators or Governors in the coming years. But that still wont fill the void we have right now.

In looking at the United States Senate, prospects there are thin.

Of the forty Republicans remaining, few have the persona, gravitas and ability to capture the nation’s imagination and trust. McCain is over and was over even before he ran for President. The Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, lacks any significant attraction in speech or persona and ideas.

Judd Gregg

Judd Gregg

Among the most promising, somewhat conservative figures, whose personalities and abilities can fit the bill, are possibly Bob Corker of Tennessee but more likely Judd Gregg of New Hampshire and John Thune of South Dakota. Both of these men are consistently strong, sound voices that could emerge as potential standard bearers in 2012 and they could start carrying the banner now by coalescing the party together under the type of “get government out the way” policy alternatives that we could make a message out of.

Gregg though seems always prepared to hang up his hat and return to a quiet life of retirement in the hills and mountains of New Hampshire.

So that leaves Senator John Thune.

He is young, the youngest of them all and I have always appreciated him. In his first run for the Senate, he lost by almost 500 votes that were illegally obtained for incumbent Senator Tim Johnson through a Democrat scheme that involved cash for votes and falsified registrations from two South Dakota Indian registrations.

John Thune

John Thune

But two years later, Thune made history when he defeated the Senate’s Democrat leader Tom Daschle.

Since then, Thune has been a relatively strong conservative influence and he has command of the issues, an energetic and confident charisma and clean record.

After sifting through the ranks of federal office holders, the only other obvious place to find the leader we need is from within the ranks of state leadership.

The governors.

It is here where we also find the most innovative and beneficial ideas in government.

The majority of Republican governors are handling things far better than most Democrat governors like those in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania,

Donald Carcierie

Donald Carcieri

 Ohio, Washington and others. But here too, the right captivating figure is hard to find out of the 22 existing Republican governors.

Mark Sanford was a promising option. His potential was not for any command of communication skills, which he lacked, but because of actual strong policy positions and administrative qualities. That was of course all before he ran off to Argentina and abandoned his state and family for a romp with his “soul mate”.

Donald Carcieri happens to be the most unique of all governors.

He is the Republican governor of Rhode Island, one of, if not the most, liberal states in the most liberal region of the nation, New England.

What makes him most unique there is the fact that he is actually a centrist with a propensity towards conservative positions. He is often in opposition to his Democrat dominated state legislature on such things as the obligations of state workers, separation of powers and illegal immigration. He has even vetoed more than 30 pieces of legislation that they have presented to him. Yet he has still been elected twice.

But we are talking Rhode Island here and Carcieri lacks any great innovative leadership qualities and national appeal.

Haley Barbour

Haley Barbour

I would hope to see Carcieri eventually take one of the two Democrat U.S. Senate seats, like Sheldon Whitehouse’s seat, but I hardly expect him to capture the national imagination.

Of those remaining, the brightest gubernatorial lights are those of Louisiana’s Boby Jindal, Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty, Mississippi’s Haley Barbour, and the best of all of them, Mitch Daniels of Indiana.

Daniels won reelection to a second term as governor by as much as 60% while at the same time, Indiana voters elected Barack Obama for President. In some cases he even got 20% of the African-American vote. That is an unusually high percentage for any Republican anywhere. He clearly has crossover appeal.

He can also be an inspiring speaker who conveys his message with conviction and in a way that makes people trusting of him and confident in him. As a conservative he has refrained from the wholesale selling out of the ideals that many in the G.O.P. have done over the past five or so years. Just one example can be demonstrated by the size of Indiana’s government.

While governments in most other states has increased in size, Mitch Daniels has shrunk both the size and cost of government. Currently the state has about 30,000 public employees. That is the smallest number of state employees since 1983.

Another area of distinction for him is in the area of government budgets.

When first coming into office Indiana had an $800 million deficit but Daniels turned it into a surplus of $1.3 billion. Much of this was helped by his reducing the growth rate of state spending from 5.9 percent to 2.8 percent.

The only problem is that Mitch Daniels has stated that he will not ever run for president. That puts a damper on national hopes for him but they have also been the same words uttered by a few people who are now former presidents

Bobby Jindal

Bobby Jindal

As for Jindal his record in Congress proves him to be an ideally strong conservative. On issues like abortion, immigration, national security, healthcare, energy, education and on just about every other issues he is right where the right wants a leader to be.

As Louisiana‘s Governor he has maintained his conservative credentials and even reigned in Louisiana‘s state budget problems.

On the downside, Jindal has only been in office since 2007 and during that time, his first, and to date, only appearance on the national stage was a response to President Obama’s State of the Union. In it, Governor Jindal put forward the right message but its delivery fell flat and received rapid fire shots aimed at claiming he was done.

Such is not the case but even Bobby Jindal has admitted that he is a little green and needs more seasoning.

That leaves Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty and Mississippi’s Haley Barbour open for discussion.

Tim Paelenty

Tim Paelenty

Both of these men have produced for their states and both of them are more qualified than President Obama was when he was elected President of the United States.

In Pawlenty we have a strong messenger and practitioner of what he himself has termed, Sam’s Club Republicanism, a combination of social conservatism with working family economic appeal.

He has governed well, put spending under control and geared state government more towards that which it should be dealing with such as responsible infrastructure planning, maintenance and construction.

If Pawlenty can raise money and attract some of the top tier consultants which Mitt Romney has already attracted to his camp. And if he can raise enough money to insure that his campaign for the presidential nomination is not under funded, thaen Pawlenty’s record, populist approach and appeal could be quite successful. But to get to that point, he should really start reaching for more national exposure now.

He should start interpreting his alternative policies to the Obama administration and allow himself to become the natural face of the G.O.P.. In him is the ability to not only shape the message that we as a party need to get out but he also has the ability to shape the policies that we can center that message around. If Tim Pawlenty were to take the lead now on issues like healthcare, taxes, the bailout, energy and job growth, many others will line up behind him as they begin to see that Pawlenty is the figure who can part the seas for the rest of them.

The same applies to Haley Barbour of Mississippi.

He has a folksy, “get’er done” way about himself and an appealing record of accomplishment for his state on budgetary control.

Before, during and after the ravaging of the Gulf Coast by Hurricane Katrina, Barbour effectively prepared his state for it and efficiently dealt with its aftermath. Louisiana was the only state to be hit as hard or harder by Hurricane Katrina and in Louisiana’s case it was prepared for and handled so horrifically that its Governor, Kathleen Blanco was practically forced out of office and ultimately rejected even for consideration to a second term in office.

Both Pawlenty and Barbour have the perfect opportunity to step up and become the leader and messenger that we need. Both of them have the unique ability to convincingly demonstrate to Americans that with the right policy direction, rather than being in our way, government can get out of our way and be an effective tool for insuring opportunity, independence and an enduring quality of life with economic freedom and growth.

Mitch Daniels has the ability to do so too and probably better than any of them………….if he wanted to.

Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush

Of course three, now former governor’s have this same ability and opportunity. Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney and dare I say it, Jeb Bush of Florida.

Jeb has put off any attempts for the White House for now. After two Bush’s in the Oval Office over the course of sixteen years, the obvious notion that the nation is Bushed out is a pretty safe bet.

As the most conservative member of the Bush family to have served in office, Jeb has been a truly effective leader and one that Floridians would have never let go if they had the chance to reelect.

Palin has promise but after resigning from office early she also now has problems. None of which can’t be overcome. Her chances to be the national face and voice of the party is fifty-fifty, much like her standing among Americans. They either love her or hate her.

Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin

Now out of office, Palin must walk a very careful line that seeks to diffuse those that hate her and broaden the numbers of those who love her. She will also have to make sure that she is taken seriously at all times. There will be no room for her to flub on any issue and while using her appealing folksy ways, she must convey a command of the issues and demonstrate a breadth of knowledge and competence that can in no way be denied by anyone who hears her. If she can deliver her small government, Washington outsider, equal opportunity, freedom based policy messages, she could out shop Tim Pawlenty when it comes to being a Sam’s Club Republican.

The largest elephant in the room though is Mitt Romney.

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney

He is definitely running for President and he is by all measures the current frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.

In addition to being a successful businessman in his own right, Romney is also a managerial genius. He took the once derailed, scandal ridden, over budget and chaotic build up of the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics and turned it into a smooth running, ethical and profitable display of organizational perfection.

Beyond that credit is Romney’s term as Governor in a liberal state that is called home by such liberal giants as Michael Dukakis, John Kerry, Barney Frank and Ted Kennedy. The liberal bastion of Massachusetts is no place for a conservative Republican to sprout out from but Romney played politics and outmaneuvered his Democrat opponent.

However; in doing so Mitt created a few problems.

A now long past conversion from pro-abortion rights to pro-life has left many right-to-lifers wondering if he is sincere on the issue. Why right-to-lifers find it hard to believe that someone would agree with them after witnessing a personal family struggle with the issue, itself is hard to understand. But so be it.

On gay rights, previous statements made when Mitt ran against Ted Kennedy for the U.S. Senate and in his actions as Governor during Massachusetts first in the nation “Gay Marriage” fight have critics claiming that on that issue, Romney experienced another political conversion.

The two issues together give Romney naysayers the opportunity to call him a flip-flopper.

But that charge only adds height to Mitt’s biggest hurdle. Obamacare.

As Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was a central figure in the creation of a state run healthcare program that made the purchase of health insurance by state residents mandatory. The concept was based on the principle that if everyone was covered, healthcare costs would be less expensive. The problem is that such a law of supply and demand doesn’t reconcile when a government bureaucracy is over seeing it.

It would be easy to suggest that Romney did the best he could with a liberal state and an overwhelmingly liberal dominated state legislature and that is true to an extent. However Mitt’s fingerprints are allover this one and to make matters worse he was the first governor to implement a plan of this type anywhere. The episode does make the case for the federal government to avoid the creation of a socialized healthcare program. It also makes a case for allowing experimentation within each individual state until an efficient model is found and emulated by all the states. But when it comes to Massachusetts, this episode proves that socialized medicine is not the way to go and for Romney the problem now is that it was his plan which demonstrated why it is not the way to go.

There are other factors involved though.

The state legislature and Romney’s successor, Governor Deval Patrick did tinker with the original program. They tinkered with it a lot and many of the healthcare reforms made in the original plan have changed from what Romney had influenced. Nevertheless the issue is Romney’s to defend against and explain. It exposes his Achilles heal in any 2012.

Romney’s best defense against possible Republican opponents who were or are governors would probably be “I tried and it failed and I learn from mistakes, whereas my fellow governors up here never even tried to make healthcare more accessible and affordable.”

This assessments of Republican leadership prospects leaves us with the following conclusion.

As it looks now, the most likely and promising of likely individuals to choose from will be a field that consists of Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour and John Thune.

Others will run and some from the above mentioned group may not. But if the six that I bring up were to be the field of candidates for the Republican nomination, it would indeed be a hotly contested race that will also undoubtedly inject a great many substantial policy models and directions that will help to fuel the conservative movement.

But that isn’t till 2012.

What will become of 2010?

Short of any of the possibly convincing figures discussed being ballsy enough to attempt to become our national voice right now, as it currently stands, there is no one person who can do it while also having the ability to enjoin all of the party leadership including the senate and house in a national strategy.

Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich

Someone needs to be able to bring all levels of leadership together and get them all on the same page to push one strategy.

It must be a strategy similar to Newt Gingrich’s “Contract With America”.

Critics can malign the “Contract With America” all they want but it worked.

After forty years in the wilderness, Newt Gingrich, along with the help of a faltering Clinton administration, brought Republicans in to the majority in the house. And the new generation that came into power with that “Contract” actually adhered to it, at least for as long as Newt Gingrich was Speaker of the House.

As for who can be both the voice of the party and the unifying force for a national Republican strategy, politics being

Mitch Daniels

Mitch Daniels

 what it is will prohibit everyone from getting behind any potential Republican candidate for President. Each camp and their supporters will not permit any one of them to get the attention and credit for bringing us back.

So this role must be played by a neutral party. It must be someone who is not going to run for President in 2012 and who will not put the momentum of the popularity that will come with this role behind any potential nominee until they have won the nomination.

This person must also have the persona we need to effectively be a persuasive point man. They must be respected with a proven record and untarnished by any of the negative stereotypes that the left can easily pin on Republicans.

All of this points to one man. One man who, if he really means what he says, fits all of the qualities that are required for becoming the coalescing figure that wont be a threat to any single Republican’s presidential ambitions or be a threat to any senate or house leaders power over their Republican conference.

That person is Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels.

If he truly has no desire to run for President, he is the person that can help Republicans deliver a national message which counters the overspending, over controlling liberal government enemy.

With him as the face of the party that delivers a Reagan-like message dealing with the Republican alternatives to the Obama-Pelosi-Reid agenda, the party can rebuild and have a shot at winning more seats instead of losing more seats in 2010.

The stars would be aligned perfectly if Republican National Chairman Mike Steele could get representatives of the Republican Governors Association and of the house and senate together and onboard, hammer out what could be generally be called “The American Agenda” and let Mitch Daniels be the national point man for it.

This would allow for the type of cohesive leadership plan that, with accurate precision, can get Republicans back on message and working together while the message is being delivered loud and clear through what would be a voice from the heartland. A governor’s voice. One with crossover appeal who has been an effective leader with a proven record, cut state budgets, reduced the size and scope of government, practiced a true commitment to both family and conservative values and whom, if he seriously will not run for President himself, is no threat to any other potential candidate. Daniels is the best man for the job and one of the only people who could do that job as well and as convincingly as him.

With whom that messenger should be established, in Part II, we will deal with exactly what that message must be and the Republican organizational plan to deliver and implement it.

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NEW YORK SETS THE STAGE FOR REPUBLICAN COMEBACK

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There has been quite a tangled web of political promotions that got us to this point but at months end, voters of New York’s 20th Congressional District will be going to the polls. They will be voting to fill the vacant congressional seat that Kirsten Gillibrand left behind when New York’s replacement Governor nominated her to fill the vacant senate seat created by Hillary Clinton after she was nominated to replace Condoleeza Rice as Secretary of State.

With all the political appointing completed, and the dust settled, voters of the 20th C.D. will finally have a say in who should represent them. They will be choosing between political novice, Democrat Scott Murphy, incumbent Republican Assemblyman James Tedisco and Libertarian nominee and state Libertarian Party Chairman Eric Sundwall.

Unfortunately or not, Sundwall is not gaining any traction with voters and will be, at most, an insignificant factor in the race. So victory will come down to Murphy or Tedisco.

Just how and why New York Democrats decided to nominate Scott Murphy is puzzling. There were some stronger individuals with greater name identification and accomplished records than Murphy, yet party officials settled on him.

Republicans however went with Tedisco, a candidate that is known locally as Mr. Schenectady, the name of the town he is from.

James Tedisco is the minority leader of the New York State Assembly and he is probably the best choice Republicans could have made.

Before he became the assembly minority leader, I had the fortune to work with Assemblyman Tedisco. For a time, I served as the New York City Regional Director for the Assembly Minority. There, I found Assemblyman Tedisco to be hard working, in touch and well grounded. He never took his legislative service for granted and he never backed down from the fight for government efficiency and fiscal responsibility.

So in my view, New York Republicans have put the right person up for the job. In Jim Tedisco they have anstandout1-600x270 experienced leader who can truly address the needs of his unique district in Washington, D.C..

That is important because, nationally, for Republicans, this is an important election. In the wake of increased congressional losses along with the loss of the White House, another loss will only reinforce the false impression of a party that is over.

As for the new R.N.C. team, under the leadership of new Chairman, Mike Steele, this special election is a special opportunity.

Mike Steele has vowed that “The Republican Party will no longer ignore the Northeast,” and he has made it clear that “Our conservative principles are applicable to every county and corner of this country.” This election provides the opportunity to prove that.

Despite liberal assertions that the G.O.P. is dead, in the weeks following the electoral victory of President Obama, Democrats have lost elections. They failed to defeat Republican Senator Bob Corker in a special Tennessee runoff and in December they failed to win a congressional seat in a heavily democratic district. That seat was won by Republican Joseph Cao.

But both those seats were in the south, where Republicans still remain competitive. Such is not the case in the liberal northeast. So a win there will go a long way. It will be a boost to Republican fortunes and rebuilding efforts.

President Obama won the 20th Congressional District by three percentage points and while still in the midst of a honeymoon of sorts, with the electorate and the media, his popularity could be key for Democrats. But the question is does the President want to put his prestige on the line so early and risk tarnishing his Midas touch image.

tedisco_podium_7I am sure that the decision will be made by the results that pollsters come up with in the days before the March 31st election. If that is the case, President Obama will probably not be spending much time in New York. Polls have had Tedisco beating Murphy by as much as 12 to 21 percentage points. It only underscores the fact that Tedisco is well known and well liked in the region whereas Murphy, a venture capitalist by trade, is unknown and has little time to increase his name identification.

But Murphy is waging an aggressive campaign and despite a debt of more than 16 million dollars, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is preparing to throw whatever it can into the race.

In the end, I believe, Jim Tedisco will win the seat.

Although it may not be viewed as a referendum on President Obama, the pick up of a Republican seat in the liberal northeast will be worth its weight in gold. It will help to demonstrate that although Republicans may be down, they are not out and that will inject some much needed enthusiasm into the G.O.P.’s base. It will help to boost fundraising efforts and give us momentum as we enter the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia this November.

 

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Income taxes are normally due on April 15th…

… unless that date falls on a Saturday or Sunday, in which case they are due on Monday the 16th or 17th.

However, I have been told that rule has recently been changed for this and for the next 4 years, tax payments will not be due until you are nominated to a cabinet position.

Please check with your Tax adviser to confirm.

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NEW JERSEY AND VIRGINIA; PERFECT TOGETHER

Bookmark and Share     In 2006 Maryland and Virginia elected rising stars in the Democratic party to govern them.

Virginia Governor Tim kaine

Virginia Governor Tim kaine

Tim Kaine took control of Virginia and Martin O’Malley took over Maryland. The two of them are quite alike. They are Catholics with experience as mayors and they both promised to “move” their states “forward”.

They promised to alleviate the congestion problems in their Washington, D.C.suburbs and to improve the quality of life in general. They also ran during elections cycles that were quite good for Democrats.

Now,  two years later, both of these gentlemen are facing a change in plans.

Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley

Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley

The economic downturn has severely altered their plans for alleviating congestion and improving the quality of life. That is largely because all of their plans were based on more spending and now, states do not have enough money to increase spending.

Of course both of these states could do what New Jersey does. They could raise taxes, tolls and tariffs on everything from gardening to joining a gym. But that might not be the best way for Tim Kaine to win an election in Virginia and this year he is running for reelection.

New Jersey Governor jon Corzine

New Jersey Governor jon Corzine

The truth of the matter is that this year, Tim Kaine shares a lot in common, not only with Maryland’s O’Malley but with New Jersey’s Jon Corzine.

New Jersey and Virginia are the only two states in the nation electing Governor’s and Corzine., like Kaine, faces a derailment of his intended path, paths that were based on increased spending.  Now they both face out of control budgets that rely on help from the federal government.

They are not the only states with such troubles but they are the only two who are governing states that will become electoral battlegrounds.

With the focus on Virginia and New Jersey, every consultant, election lawyer and celebrity will be traveling to New Jersey and Virginia to help pull their respective side across the finish line and into first place.

For Democrats the election could be a reaffirmation of their majority status and their total control in Washington. At this point in time it will not necessarily be a referendum on President Barack Obama or the Democratic party but during the course of the next 7 months, it could easily become one .

President Obama is the titular head of the Democratic party and Tim Kaine is now the Chairman of the party. That means that anything Democrats do nationally could easily be echoed in Virginia and New Jersey voters could easily also use their vote as a form of protest.

We are intertwined and people react to events, regardless of where they happen or who is in question.

Former Denator Bill Bradley

Former Senator Bill Bradley

In 1990 New Jersey’s Bill Bradley was running for reelection to the United States Senate. Republicans nominated a little known county Freeholder named Christie Whitman. Bradley should not have had any problems winning reelection but with a bit more than 1.9 million votes cast, he barely won.

Former NJ Governor & EPA Director Christie whitman

Former NJ Governor & EPA Director Christie whitman

Why?

Well fellow Democrat, New Jersey Governor Jim Florio, had raised state taxes by $2.8 billion. Voters were madder than ever and even though Florio was not on the ballot, they took their anger out on Bradley. Out known and outspent by Bradley, Whitman came within 56,000 votes of unseating Bradley and catapulted herself into the Governor’s mansion when it came time to run against Jim Florio.

The same type of backlash could happen in Virginia and again in New Jersey in this election cycle if Democrats take their tax and spend policies too far.

In New Jersey, Governor Jon Corzine has already gone too far and he simply promises to go even further. His first budget, almost three years ago, raised taxes by nearly $2 billion dollars and like Florio, he invented a few new taxes. And like Tim Kaine, all of Jon Corzine’s promises relied on increased spending.

Former NJ Governor Jim Florio

Former NJ Governor Jim Florio

So Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey are going to have a tough go at it. Corzine more than Kaine, but as the new Chairman of the Democrat National Committee, Tim Kaine could find himself on par with Corzine by the time elections roll around in November.

As for Republicans, their races will not be easy.

At the moment, Democrats have the upper hand in fundraising and organization. They also have a President with a clean slate and if the President maintains his current popularity he could be an asset to them and he will surely be one of those “celebrities” shuttling back and forth between D.C, Virginia and New Jersey.

But Republicans have the most at stake.

antsteele_rnc_blog_fwa_20090130173241

RNC Chairman Mike Steele

The RNC’s new national Chairman, Mike Steele promises to make New Jersey and Virginia priorities in the coming months and losing in these two states will only deepen the rut we are in.

Victories in these two states will go along way in proving that the G.O.P. may be down but they are not out and it could set the stage for their resurgence.

Perhaps the best way to boost their fortunes will be by highlighting the common bond that exists not only between Virginia’s Tim Kaine and Maryland’s O’Malley or Tim Kaine and New Jersey’s Jon Corzine …..Spending.

All of these people promised to spend our way into happiness and they promised to do so with taxpayers money. But now that we do not have any money to spare, their promises are broken and the only way they can try to stay on their promised courses is by taxing us even more.

Republicans need to point out that Democrat leadership , from Obama to Kaine, Corzine, O’Malley and every liberal in between, is based on taxing and spending and after all their government spending is said and done, all they have left to show for it is the need to raise taxes and spend some more.

Pointing out the wrongness of liberal policy alone is not enough though.

New Jersey and Virginia Republicans will need to nominate conservative oriented candidates for governor. They can not put forward nominees that are wishy-washy and afraid to go out on a limb and stand against initiatives designed at “spreading the wealth”.

And then they must offer solutions. Solutions that do not require government spending or loony tune government mandates like the low income housing mandates initiated by New Jersey’s Council On Affordable Housing.

If Republicans in New Jersey and Virginia can recapture their inherent conservative oriented ideology, they just might be able to reclaim some territory that is currently controlled by vulnerable liberals.

Either way, brace yourself. Whether you live in these battleground states or not, the 2009 election cycle will be intense.

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A young man’s parents were trying to figure out what their son’s future career would be so they decided to give him a test.

They took a twenty dollar bill, a Bible, and a bottle of whiskey, and put them on the front hall table. Then they hid, hoping he would think they weren’t at home. The father told the mother, “If he takes the money he will be a businessman, if he takes the Bible he will be a clergyman but if he takes the bottle of whiskey, I’m afraid our son will be a drunkard.”

So the parents took their place in the nearby closet and waited nervously. Peeping through the keyhole they saw their son arrive home. He saw the note they had left, saying they’d be home later. Then, he took the twenty dollar bill, looked at it against the light, and slid it in his pocket. After that, he took the Bible, flicked through it, and took it also. Finally, he grabbed the bottle, opened it, and took a whiff to be assured of the quality. Then he left for his room, carrying all the three items.

The father slapped his forehead and said, “Darn, it’s even worse than I could ever have imagined…”

“What do you mean?” his wife asked.

“Our son is going to be a politician!” replied the very unhappy father.

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