Tag Archives: the race for the white house

ELECTION NIGHT SCHEDULE AND PREDICTIONS

Election night can and will be very interesting but if you have yourself the right tools it could be a short one.  Certain state races could be quite telling and barring any voter machine falures or an obvious voter scandal that calls for the impounding of ballots, if some of those states go one way or the other, you couid know who the next President will be buy as early as 8:00 pm.  Maybe even earlier.
 
But to reach that conclusion you need the right tools.  So here it is, your own little election night guide.
It’s kind of like a racing slip for the Kentucky Derby of elections. 

Below you will find the scheduled poll closing times for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.  You will also find the play by play for one election night scenario.

 
7PM Eastern
Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
 
At 7:00 pm the first polls close In Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. If the results are not particularly close, projections could be made within minutes. Vermont will be a landslide and it will be called for Senator Barack Obama. Kentucky, South Carolina and Georgia will also have pluralities large enough s to safely call them,  but they will be for Senator John McCain.  These results may come in relatively quickly, probably by 7:10 to 7:20 PM.

Virginia is also, usually, called rather quickly but I suspect that there will not be a rapid rush to call Virginia for Obama or McCain. With polls claiming that the Virginia race is in the bag for Barack Obama by as much as 10% and others having the race as close as 2% combined with the high voter turnout, calling this one quickly may be tough.. Ultimately though, Virginia is likely going blue. If it does, McCain is in trouble. By losing Virginia, Senator McCain will need to make up for the loss of their 11 electoral votes and he will have to do so within a map that offers him few opportunities. It will not be impossible to make them up but difficult. However, Indiana closes it’s polls at this time and if Indiana goes to Barack Obama, especially with Virginia going the same way, than you can start hiding your money under the mattresses because you can safely say that President Obama will be living in the White House

An average of all polls in Indiana give Barrack Obama an edge over McCain by less than half of 1 percent but if there is any state that is likely to lean in McCain’s direction it is Indiana so if McCain does get it, the first round of poll closings should result with John McCain receiving 42 electoral college votes to Obama’s 16.                                      

7:30PM Eastern
Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina

The biggest player in this second round, Ohio, will probably be the most conclusive of all. If Senator McCain losses their 20 electoral votes, the possibility to win any combinations that reaches the magic number of 270 electoral votes is highly unlikely. To do so he would need Pennsylvania, Missouri, Florida, Colorado, Indiana as well as two other state that may have already been called for Obama, Virginia and North Carolina.  That would leave Obama with only 265 to McCain’s 273. This highly doubtful.
West Virginia is unquestionably in McCain’s column and despite the current polls of these states, in this second set of closings, I expect McCain to win Ohio in and North Carolina.   Conventional wisdom and history would seem to make this very possible if not likely. So we give them to him. That brings the total count for John McCain to 82 electors to Obama’s 16.


8:00PM Eastern

Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

Now 8:00 pm arrives. If McCain received any of the necessary combinations needed up to this point, here too, is a do or die situation for John McCain. It also produces one of the most lucrative results of all poll closing times. 171 electoral votes are up for grabs at this point and it includes some of the south which is strong territory for McCain. The problem is that much of Obama’s true blue northeastern states also turn out their results at 8 o‘clock. The results for the Obama rich megalopolis from Massachusetts in the Northeast to DC in the Mid Atlantic begins to pour out for him here. It also includes the crucial states of Pennsylvania and Missouri. Most important of all for McCain will be the sunshine state of Florida.  We can safely say that of the states in this 8:00 pm round of poll closings, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee will break for McCain. That gives him 33 more electors bringing him up to 115.

Obama will definitely take Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Washington, DC and his home state of Illinois. That’s a total of 84 bringing Obama up to 95votes in the electoral college.

That leaves us with the battleground states of Missouri and two of the biggest cliff hangers in this 8:00 pm closing time. They are some of the biggest prizes in the electoral sweepstakes , Pennsylvania and Florida.

Parts of Florida close ealier than 8:00 pm.  But by 8 pm, the panhandle, which is in a different time zone form the rest of the state,  makes the results in Florida official.  In the 2000 election, the pro-Gore media ignored this fact and called the election for Gore before these results were in.  I do not expect them to make the same error this time.

With an average of polls showing McCain trailing in Florida by 2.2 %, he can pull it off. If he does, it gives him a total of 142 electoral votes and he will still be in the race for at least another half hour and the next rounds of results.

With the polls almost as close in Missouri as they are in Florida, I will put Missouri in Mac’s column too. Now he is up to 153.

The remaining state in this group, Pennsylvania, is becoming interesting.

Obama’s reference to the citizens of the western part of the state “bitterly clinging to their guns and religion” along with their own Congressman John Murtha first calling them racists and than apologizing by calling them rednecks, Pennsylvania could be in play and I think it just might be the surprise of the night.  I think McCain will win it by a whisper.   If the polls in Pennsylvania are as inaccurate as I believe, and it does go McCain’s way, he will now have 174 electoral votes.

I do regret that this is looking unlikely.  McCain most likely will not be able to pull it off. Currently Mac is in back by as much as 11% here. That would give Obama 116 electoral votes and would also likely seal his winning the 2008 election for President of the United States.

If the scenario goes the way I have suggested, so far, and McCain can pull off Pennsylvania,  Senator McCain is still viable when we get to 8:30 pm and the next polls close.

8:30PM

Arkansas

By the time many of the 8:00 pm results are being tabulated and projections are being made in other states, parts of Arkansa start reporting results.  Arkansas, with it’s 6 electoral votes closes it’s polls at 8:30 pm. By 9:00 pm all voting is completed in Arkansas and the results should be conclusive enough to call it for McCain. That would bring the Republican nominee up to 180 electors.

9:00PM Eastern

Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

At 9:00 pm., the polls close in 14 more states. It concludes the Northeast where Obama wins New York and Rhode Isalnd bringing Obama up to 130 electoral votes, just 50 less than McCain. But McCain will be able to safely claim victories in the results from states outside of the Northeast. Such as his home state of Arizona.  Others include South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Louisiana, Kansas and the second largest prize, Texas. That will bring John McCain up to 250.

In addition to New York and Rhode Island, Senator Obama should easily claim 42 more electoral votes from the combined total of victories in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Barack Obama will now have 172 electoral votes in his column.

That leaves Colorado. Obama is ahead here but it is not a insurmountable lead for John McCain to overcome. However, trends would indicate to me that Obama will take Colorado and after the 9:00 pm results have been projected it will be Barack Obama 181electoral votes to John McCain’s 250.

 

10:00PM Eastern

Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

At 10:00 pm 4 more state polls close and throw their combined 20 electoral votes into the ring. Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah should all be good states for McCain but Obama’s has a lead in Iowa that will not be overtaken and so Obama will get their 7 electors. McCain should take Montana and will take the state that consistently gives Republicans some of the widest margins of victory in all elections, Utah. Now it’s 258 Mccain to 188 for Obama.

Yet again another crucial state for McCain will be Nevada. If he manages to win Virginia earlier in the evening and still wins Ohio and Missouri the final result would be 269 to 269. Obama would still win any such tie in the electoral college by a majority of states controlled by democratic congressional delegations but if McCain happened to change New Hampshire’s direction and won the granite state, he would be the next President.
Fact is that McCain is behind Obama by an average of 3.3 % in Nevada.   Even though that is a smaller margin than in other states, Obama will probably pull Nevada off. His ground game and union support from hotel workers and gambling interests in Las Vegas make him tough to beat here. So now it’s Obama’s 193 to McCain’s 258. If McCain did happen to win Nevada it still wont matter. The Obama blue tide to come will inevitably doom McCain to his last campaign for President.

                                                                           

11:00PM Eastern
California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington

By 11:00 pm. Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington State and the largest electoral prize, California, all close their poll.
McCain will undoubtedly take Idaho and North Dakota which would bring his electoral vote count to 265. Obama is going to win Hawaii, Oregon and the state of Washington overwhelmingly, which brings him up to 215 votes.

Then California’s whopping 55 electoral votes will be handed over to Senator Barack Obama like the Oscar being awarded to the years best actor at the Academy Awards ceremony. The Keith Olbermanns, Chris Matthews, Tom Brokaws and other liberal loving loons will be able to rejoice with certainty because Barack Obama will have a total of 270 electoral votes. That would be just the right number needed to win .

                                                                             

1:00AM Eastern – Alaska

It won’t be over though. With iceberg like speed, Alaska will make it official at 1:00 am and cast all three of their electoral votes for John McCain and their popular Governor, Sarah Palin. That would give the McCain-Palin ticket a total of 268 electoral votes or 2 short of what he would have needed to win.

Of course there are 4 different possible scenarios that could create a victory for John McCain.   Some include winning Pennsylvania while also taking Nevada while still losing in Virginia.  Other scenarios don’t allow McCain to prevail but are more interesting. One actually is a tie in the electoral college with a combination of state wins for McCain that includes New Hampshire.  All are unlikely.  It is even unlikely that McCain will win Pennsylvania.  
 
The bottom line though is, that if current polls are correct,  McCain will probably lose not only Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina but Florida as well as Pennsylvania and Missouri. 

Either way one should be able to tell who won by between 8:00 pm and 8:30 pm.  It could be even earlier than that.  If when the polls close at 7:00 pm, Indiana has Obama winning their electoral college votes, than you can rest assured that McCain probably can’t pull out victories in some of the other states that he needs and are less friendly to his candidacy than Indiana is.

 
If after 7:30 pm,North Carolina bolted it’s previous red hue and went blue for Obama, even if McCain won in Indiana, that could prove to be fatal.  If North Carolina votes for Obama it will most likely precludes Senator John McCain from being able to achieve the minimal number of 270 electoral required to win the election. 
Polls have been known to be wrong and there is still a chance for McCain to win. Obama has not locked up states like Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina or even Colorado and Virginia.  New Hampshire could alos start changing directions as undecided voters begin to break in his direction. 

In any event I am confident in this fact.  Obama will win the popular vote  He will do so even if he losses the election in the electoral college.  I make this claim because Obama will produce the highest voter turnout we have ever seen in our urban centers, the areas where the highest concentration of voters are.

Obama will produce victories in heavily populated states like New York and California, Michigan and even in Florida.  Barack Obama will win with exorbitant pluralities, especially in cities.  Because of those high concentration of voters he will win some states with those highly populated, big cities by a million or more votes.  Whereas McCain will win in smaller states and by smaller margins.  Margins more like tens or hundreds of thousands as opposed to millions.

  
The margin of victories will not matter as much as the electoral college vote.  So if McCain can win some key states like Missouri, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, even by a small margin, it won’t matter how many millions Obama beats McCain by in places like New York, Illinois or California and you can rest assured that Obama will beat him big time in those places.
  
I actually fear the reaction that we might encounter from the electorate if McCain wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote to Obama.  It is a reaction that will probably effect us more than the presidenciy of either McCain or Obama.
  
 Below Are Some Of The Likely Scenarios
This map depicts the results articulated in the above account

This map depicts the results articulated in the above account

A very possible mccain victory scenario

A very possible mccain victory scenario

A less likely but still possible McCain victory scenario

A less likely but still possible McCain victory scenario

The unlikely but very possible tied election result

The unlikely but very possible tied election result

 

One of the more likely Obama victory maps

One of the more likely Obama victory maps

The most of the most likely Obama victory results

Another Obama possible win scenario

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Republicans Democrats

The difference between Republicans & Democrats

 A Republican and a Democrat were walking down the street when they came to a homeless person.

The republican gave the homeless person his business card and told him come to his business for a job. He then took twenty dollars out of his pocket and gave it to the homeless person.

The Democrat was very impressed, and when they came to another homeless person, He decided to help. He walked over to the homeless person and gave him directions to the welfare office. He then reached into the Republicans pocket and gave him fifty dollars.

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POLITICS AND DINNER DON’T GO TOGETHER

I have to apologize here from the get go. The other night my partner Nick, and I went out to a local diner for a quick bite to eat. We were seated at a booth in between a group of four behind me and a group of three senior citizens behind Nick. While perusing the menu my ears caught the phrase “I don’t like Obama”. It came from one of the ladies in the group sitting behind Nick .

Being preoccupied by politics, certain buzz words like election, President, McCain, or Obama, catch my attention even when I am not paying attention.

So this older woman’s utterance of the word “Obama” lit up my on my radar screen. Even though it may have been impolite to pay attention to a conversation not involving me, I couldn’t help myself.

So I apologize for any impolite eavesdropping, that I may be guilty of. It wasn’t my intent but I’m a political junkie, and as such, this election season is for me what Christmas is to a wide eyed, little boy.  It’s like the Super Bowl to football fans and I am just in tune to any references to politics. Besides, to put it nicely, this woman was not using her inside voice. So curiosity got the best of me and I paid attention to the political opinion that was unfolding.

The woman went on to say “I don’t like Obama but he’s got my vote”. The woman explained further “those Republicans are only for the rich and big business”

At this point the waitress came over to take the orders of Nick and I. Being distracted, I let my partner order first and I than quickly determined what I wanted. With my attention taken off of the conversation that I was not a part of, Nick and I started our own banter.

When the waitress returned with our drink orders, both Nick and myself happened to hear that same woman I overheard earlier say “and that “McCann”, “he just wants to give tax breaks to big companies”. At this point I had just begun to take a sip of my Pepsi with lemon and no ice when she continued “and who are those big businesses to make as much money as they do. They shouldn’t be allowed to make that much money in the first place”.

Upon hearing that , I gagged on my soda. Having caught that remark from right behind him, Nick knew what the cause of my discomfort was.

We were about to eat and after having heard what I just heard, I could not allow myself to pay any further attention and still be able to stomach the meal I was about to eat.

Nick knew my blood pressure was rising and quickly tried to establish our own conversation and provide a diversion from that which had me fuming. Our food came and we discussed the details of the event we were heading out to DJ.

Through it all, I could not help but allow the words of that woman to echo in my head. I couldn’t stop wondering if she actually knew what she said. Did she really believe, that in America, people should only be allowed to make a certain amount of money? Did she actually believe Democrat talking points and accept them as the truth?

I thought to myself, how little this woman really knew and how misinformed she was. Yet, despite her lack of understanding , awareness and information, she threw her words out with total conclusiveness and decisiveness. This is a woman who referred to John McCain as “John McCann”. She didn’t even know his name yet she acted like a brilliant sage who proclaimed Republicans are only for the rich and that businesses should only be allowed to make a certain amount of money.

What this woman neglected to realize was that Republicans and “John McCann” do not believe in penalizing success. They do not support limiting opportunity or making our government some type of communist politburo that does everything from control your wages to determining what, how and where your children are educated. She didn’t understand that Republicans were not for the rich or sponsors of class warfare but that they didn’t believe in penalizing success or taxation that goes so far that it taxes the dead and buried. This bitter, jealous woman could not wrap her head around the fact that “John McCann” is not trying to keep her down but that he is trying to prevent government from holding her back.

All these thoughts raced through my mind as Nick and I ate and as I tried to focus on our own discussion.

We chatted away and finished up our meal but in the back of my head I could not stop thinking about how gullible this woman was. She actually believed in the liberal bumper sticker slogans and campaign catch phrases that promoted liberal socialist policies in brightly colored wrapping paper and big ribbons and bows. She admitted that she didn’t even like Barack Obama. Yet because he was a Democrat and since they were against the rich, she was for them.

Beyond angering me, it worried me. I worried about how many more people in America held her thinking and how many despised the free market that comes with our democracy? How many Americans were actually supporting socialism and wanted to adopt it as our way of life?

With our meal finished, I got up before Nick to find our waitress. I put on my McCain-Palin jacket, prominently, found the waitress and asked her for not only my check but for the check of the people at the table behind Nick. I told her that I wanted to pay for it. The waitress was taken back for a moment and said “Oh, Ok, here ya go”. After paying and getting my change, I asked if she could give me a blank dinner check to write a message on and that she could give to the customers I paid for. She handed one to me and I wrote:

 

“Dear Fellow Americans;
I paid your check.
I did so because this is still America and in it I can still make as much as my ambition, skill, and willingness to make allows. In it I am also still allowed to keep enough of it so that I can spend as much of it as I want and on what I want. If Barack Obama is elected he will determine all that for me. So enjoy my generosity while you can because if you get your way, we will all be losing our own ways.

P.S.: John McCain is the man trying to preserve democracy. Tom McCann is the company you buy your shoes from.”

Upon leaving the diner with Nick, and after paying for more meals than I expected, just to make a point, I realized that just like the government should do, I too should mind my own business.
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POLITICS 24/7 AUTHOR BOOKED ON TALK RADIO

After reading POLITICS 24/7‘s post on Keith Olbermann, conservative talk show host Tim Conway, Jr., has booked it’s author, Anthony Del Pellegrino on it’s show Thursday, October 23rd at 9:15 pm (pst).

For east coasters thats 12:15 am, which technically makes it Friday, October 24th for us.

But regardless, east coast, west coast and everyone in between, I hope you call in with your two cents. 

In fact, if you are a conservative put a bucks worth in.

I hope to hear from you. 

 

 

 

Nights in Southern California are always brighter with Tim Conway Jr. weeknights from 8PM – 11PM.

Conway is in his 11th year at 97.1, treating Los Angeles to a wide variety of topics ranging from ‘LIVE’ Police Chases to the ‘World of Entertainment.’ With Tim’s amazing sense of humor (that he obviously acquired from his mother’s side), listeners know that they’ll always learn something and smile at the same time!

Tim Conway Jr. was born and raised in Southern California; living in the San Fernando Valley. He attended Portola Junior High in Tarzana and finished his education in Van Nuys graduating in 1981 from Birmingham High. His down-to-earth humor brings a sense of refreshing levity to all of us surrounded by lunatics in Southern California.

The Tim Conway Jr. Show is designed ot help Southern California wind down after a hellish day avoiding bullets on the local freeways. Conway hosts the longest running radio game show ever Thursday night at 8PM, “What the Hell Did Jesse Jackson Say?” Conway also features the David Letterman “Top 10 List,” an exclusive audio recap of one of TV’s hottest benchmarks.

The Tim Conway Jr. Show…the new and improved comedy talk show in town and the only place ot find out what’s going on in this crazy city of ours! Weeknights from 8PM to 11PM…only on 97.1 the FM Talk Station

punchline politics

  A Quickie 

One day George W. Bush and Dick Cheney walk into a diner. A waitress walks up to them and asks if she can take their order. Bush leans close to her and says, “Honey, can I have a quickie?”

The waitress is appalled and yells at the President about women’s rights and storms away.

Cheney then says to Bush, “George, its pronounced ‘quiche’.”

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An Open Letter To Keith Olbermann and NBC.

Failed Sportscaster, and Demoted Newsman Keith Olbermann, The New Tokyo Rose

Dear Depraved, Liar;
I happened to see your low rated program “Countdown with Keith Olbermann”. I would have turned you off like most Americans do but I was curious. I wondered if you were as big a schmuck as I have been told you were. Like passing a car wreck on the Garden State Parkway, I just had to look and see if it was possible for a news station to be as irresponsible as I have been told NBC is.

 Not only did I find that it was possible, I was stunned by the outright lies and offensiveness of the so called program you attempted to get through, . For almost thirty minutes you polluted the air with disgusting innuendos, blatant lies, and the greatest amount of disinformation ever transmitted since Tokyo Rose tried to discourage American troops from carrying out their valiant missions to defend democracy. For me, you were even more offensive than Tokyo Rose. She was not an American. She was not operating under any rules of decency or fairness. You however, are suppose to be, and yet, you flout those qualities as if they were Sunday comic strips.

 You conduct yourself in a way that strips any sense of integrity or decency away from NBC. It is no wonder why they have placed you on their sagging cable news outlet, MSNBC. It would also explain why MSNBC is so low in the ratings.

 What I do wonder about is how they can possibly keep putting you on any air?

 You failed at your job as a sportscaster, and somehow got utilized by NBC for delivering the news. Since then you have proved incompetent and along with your sidekick, Chris Mathews, got booted from that job and now you are left only with your appearance in a goofball, commentary segment.

 After seeing your performance, I have concluded that you must be offering sexual favors to some important troll at NBC. It is the only apparent reason that anyone could possibly have for employing you.

 On your program you lied exactly 13 times about John McCain and  9 times about Sarah Palin, the only two people that your show discussed.   Additionally, you called them racists and liars.  In the past you have even accused John McCain of treason and through it all you never once made a reference to any facts.

 Your despicable conduct, irrational behavior, prejudiced judgment and skewed logic has no place in an intelligent society.

Beyond that, the blatant hatred that you conveyed in your fairy tales, during this program, carried over. They conjured up the same sense of hatred for you that you aired for those who are not liberals, So much so that I must relay my own wishes for you.

 After witnessing your despicable program, it is my deepest hope that you are blown out of your ivory tower and have your legs and arms broken as you fall to the earth where a group of wild thugs spit on you while punching and kicking you. Then, with almost every bone in your body broken, I sincerely hope they throw you into a New York City sewer for 5 years, where you are fed a piece of bread a day and left to drink the raw sewerage that flows around you. And through it all, I want NBC to repeatedly report, day after day, that for your efforts, you are being accused of turning your back on any and all sense of journalistic integrity and for treason to the United States.

 You should be forced to endure the same conditions that the man you ridicule, belittle and lie about, endured during his service for and to our country.

But you, Mr. Olbermann, are not alone in the need for public denunciation. The corporate goons who afford you the opportunity to play the role of a modern day Tokyo Rose should pay even more dearly.

The dwindling ratings of NBC, due to mediocre programming, has been forcing them to scramble for survival for more than two years. Their hopes for MSNBC to help alleviate the suffering of it’s parent company has failed. MSNBC loses out to all other competitors and now they are having trouble selling air time to advertisers. Circumstances such as this are not only expected, but their irresponsible conduct in airing people, such as yourself, makes these results well deserved.

 

NBC is allowing you to fan the flames of hatred. They are allowing you to exploit a polarized electorate by polarizing them even more. NBC is allowing you to plant the seeds of anger during one of our nations most important moments, a national election. IT is a time when we must all be responsible in determining the direction we will head in and yet NBC uses it as an opportunity to breed anger.

 

Mr. Olbermann, I write these things not in an attempt for ratings or the undeserved, lucrative paycheck that you receive, I write this to you because your behavior can not be ignored and because it should not be kept the great secret that your low ratings allow it to be. I write this because responsible people should take it upon themselves to denounce such conduct and demand that it not be rewarded. I also write this to let you know that through your lies, false accusations and deceit, your hateful objectives have achieved their goal. They have created anger, but that anger is not aimed at the targets you hoped. It is directed towards you.
 
 
 

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GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT

 

 

Once upon a time the government had a vast scrap yard in the middle of a desert. Congress said someone may steal from it at night; so they created a night watchman, GS-4 position, and hired a person for the job.

Then Congress said, “How does the watchman do his job without instruction?” So they created a planning division and hired two (2) people, one person to write the instructions (GS-12) and one person to do time studies (GS-11).

Then Congress said, “How will we know the night watchman is doing the tasks correctly?” So they created a quality control (QC) division and hired two (2) people, one (GS-9) to do the studies and one (GS-11) to write the reports.

Then Congress said, “How are these people going to get paid?” So they created a payroll division with a time keeper (GS-9) and a payroll officer (GS-11), and hired two (2) people.

Then Congress said, “Who will be accountable for all of these people?” So they created an administrative division and hired three (3) people: an Admin Officer (GM-13), Assistant Admin Officer (GS-13), and a Legal Secretary (GS-8).

Then, one year later, Congress reviewed the operation of the desert scrap yard and said, “We have had this command in operation for one year and we are $18,000 over budget. We must cut back overall costs!” So they eliminated the night watchman

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