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President Obama’s State-by-State Job Approval Numbers Mean He’s Headed for a 1 Term Presidency

Bookmark and Share Gallup recently released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers and the results paint several pretty dismal pictures for the President, pictures that reflects the overall dismal economic condition that that the nation is in.reside
According to the analysis the President received a plurality of approval from residents of only the District of Columbia and 10 states, while his job approval was below 50% in the remaining forty states. Furthermore; in a majority of them, his approval was well below 45%.

This analysis is particularly troublesome given that while the President’s job approval rating nationally is below the 50% mark, the President’s reelection rests not within the national opinion as much as it does within the collective electoral college results that arrived at through the opinions reflected in each individual state. And while a Real Clear Politics average of national polls put the Presidents approval rating at 46.5% and his disapproval rating is at 47.9%, what the Gallup state-by-state analysis shows is that the President’s challenge is actually tougher than the national polls indicate.

Gallup points out that President Obama received a 44% job approval rating in his third year in office, which is down from 47% in his second year. If that trend were to continue, Ron Paul could be nominated by the G.O.P. and probably defeat President Obama handily. But reality dictates that Ron Paul will never see the light of day as a Republican presidential nominee, and that President Obama’s numbers are not likely to trend downward as he embarks upon a billion dollar campaign that will seek to rehabilitate his own image while eviscerating the image of his Republican opponent.

However, if the President finds his reelection effort failing to reverse the trend of his existing numbers and change the opinions that voters have of him now, he is doomed. Based upon the current trend, If the President were to only carry those states in the Gallup poll which he he had a net positive approval rating in 2011, he would lose the 2012 election with 215 electoral votes, to the Republican nominee’s 323 electoral votes.

A White House 2012 breakdown of the Gallup study demonstrates how daunting a challenge lies ahead for President Obama.

Based upon his current state-by-state approval ratings, if we give President Obama each state where his rating is at 50% or above, he would lose the election by winning 159 electoral college votes from D.C., California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont. The Republican nominee would receive 379 electoral votes, 109 more than needed.

But White House 2012 tried to be a bit more realistic and decided to breakdown these numbers down by giving President Obama the benefit of the doubt by assuming he can turn his numbers around in all those states where his approval was as low as 45%.

That was not only generous, it was also responsible for a fairly more accurate picture of things.

Regardless of the numbers, there are some states that will not likely vote Republican regardless of how bad a job President Obama is doing or who the Republican presidential nominee is. States like Washington and Oregon on the West Coast will probably remain dark blue and the president may easily turn around his downward trending approval ratings among the liberal sympathisers of those states. That accounts for 19 more electoral votes. Then you can easily see the President take Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan in the Midwest. That’s 36 more electoral votes. Then because his numbers are barely above 45% in Iowa, let’s say he can pull off some magic there, a state which he won in 2008. That’s 6 more. Then on the East Coast, you’ll find Maine, and Rhode Island remaining true blue. That’s another 8 electoral votes. And throw in Pennsylvania too if for no other than reason than the Southeast portion of the state may still be strongly under the President’s spell. That’s 20 more for a total shift of 89 electoral votes which gives President Obama 248 to the G.O.P.’s 290, a figure that still gives the win to the Republican nominee with 20 more electoral votes than needed.

With 29 electoral votes, this would make Florida the key to the President’s winning reelection. Without it he needs Ohio with 18 electoral votes and at least one of the following other states; Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, or North Carolina.

Those four states are not goof for him right now, but he has better numbers in them than he does in other states like New Hampshire or Arizona.

But even these state’s will be hard for Obama. Currently his job approval is 40.4% in Colorado, 41.7% in New Mexico, 41.3% in Nevada, and 43.7% in North Carolina. Meanwhile his approval numbers in Florida and Ohio are at 43.6% and 42.1% respectively.

While turning these numbers around will not be impossible in the course of the lifetime that politically speaking, exists between now and November, doing so will be quite a dramatic achievement. One that may require not just a well run campaign on the President’s part, but also a badly managed campaign on the part of whoever his Republican opponent is.

On a sidenote, I can not figure out for the life of me how the President’s job approval rating went up in a place like Wyoming. It went up slightly in Connecticut and Maine, but those two states are known for the lunacy of their liberalism and in many cases their socialism. But Wyoming?

As for the final outcome, no one can honestly say they know how the election will end. But based upon a bit of instinct, the issues that will play out during the campaign, and the existing numbers, I offer my own following projections.

It should be noted that if this scenario does come to fruition, there is the potential for an Electoral College crisis, for it offers the possibility of a tie in the Electoral College:

However I do not suspect that such a tie will occur because of the battleground states that I believe this will come down to, I foresee Republicans winning Pennsylvania, Colorado, and New Mexico.

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Santorum Ad Tells Us What the “DEAL” with Newt Gingrich is

Bookmark and Share Fresh off of his poor third place showing in Florida, Rick Santorum is trying to take advantage of Newt Gingrich’s big 15% second place loss to Mitt Romney in the Sunshine State by reclaiming the title of “conservative alternative” to Mitt Romney, the big winner in Tuesday’s primary contest [see the ad below this post].

The ad entitled “Deal”, is a very powerful condemnation of Gingrich which catches you off guard with opening arguments that would have you think the ad is comparing Santorum to his three Republican rivals, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul. It claims that the three politicians in question support legislative policies which are conservative anathema; Cap-and-Trade, amnesty, and the government bailouts. It would be bad enough for Santorum’s Republican rivals to have to wear all three of those issues around their necks, but the surprise comes when it is revealed that three politicians in question are not Romney, Paul, and Gingrich but rather President Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Newt Gingrich.

The surprise comparison is twice as debilitating for Gingrich because while you might expect Mitt Romney to be accused of being too liberal, this ad avoids Romney and shockingly puts Newt Gingrich in an entirely differently league, one that puts him directly in the room with iconic liberals Obama and Pelosi.

The ad happens to be one of the most effective of this campaign cycle to date. It is produced well and is quite creative. It also presents Santorum’s case against Newt in a way that avoids being overly outlandish and to the point of being too hard to believe.

Yet while the ad is quite good, it is also indicative of the unfortunate position that Rick Santorum finds himself in. This ad pits him against Newt Gingrich, not frontrunner Mitt Romney, and it signals the fact that Santorum knows he is still competing in a primary within the primary………. the conservative primary within the Republican primary. It demonstrates that Rick Santorum is in a desperate fight to just get in to the race against Mitt Romney.

The good news for Santorum is that it is quite possible that conservatives have not yet ensconced themselves in Newt’s camp and Rick could still possibly win over a majority of them. One most notable conservative to recently go to Santorum’s side is Michele Malkin, a talking head with a considerably large conservative following. But at the same time it is a little late in this race for Santorum to hope his horse places or shows when the only ticket he can cash in on is the one to win.

But hope springs eternal and this ad is has a spin on it that forces me to give Rick Santorum a lot of credit, even though I believe it will help Mitt Romney than it will help Santorum.


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Democrats Afraid of a Return To Average Black Voter Turnout Numbers

Bookmark and Share   According to a Aaron Blake at The Hill, Democrats are fearing that a drop off in African-American votes in coming elections that do not feature President Obama on the ballot, could be quite detrimental to Racial Politicstheir election and reelection efforts.

This fear is playing itself out in the elections for governor and state legislative seats in Virginia and New Jersey which are about three weeks away. I previously illustrated evidence of this concern among Democrats, more specifically the concerns on the issue that New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine has.

I pointed to a slew of billboards the Governor has purchased in predominantly African-American neighborhoods. The billboards display an image of President Obama at a podium and off to the right, in the background, is the image of Jon Corzine. The bold tag line that goes along with the imagery reads “Keep it Going”.

What we are suppose to “keep going” is left to your own imagination but it is more than likely intended to mean that we should keep the work of President Obama going and that, by electing Jon Corzine, we will continue to do just that under Jon Corzine. Being strategically placed only in predominantly black communities, these billboards are obviously meant to inspire African-Americans and convince them that a vote for Governor Corzine is a vote for Barack Obama, even if the president isn’t on the ballot.

corzine bama billboardThe intended message behind the ad is, to say the least, shallow but that is the essence of the entire race for governor in New Jersey. There are no clear, concrete plans being offered by any of the candidates for governor that offer a hint of how they will improve the quality of life in New Jersey. In Governor Corzine’s case that is particularly true.

For Corzine’s main opponent, Republican Chris Christie, his campaign is banking on that being anyone other than Corzine is enough to pull him through to victory. Independent candidate Chris Daggett is hoping that not being either Corzine or Christie will make him the next Governor. But Jon Corzine, with no record of accomplishment to point to, is counting on strong voter turnout among traditionally Democrat sectors. The focus of that strategy is centered on African-American and Jewish voters. Such is why the Governor has focused on bringing people like Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz to campaign for him among select New Jersey communities. It is one reason why he picked an obscure state legislator to be his running mate for Lieutenant Governor. When receiving the nomination from Corzine, State Senator Loretta Weinberg defined herself a fiesty Jewish Grandmother and had been running on that ever since.

But it is the African-American vote he mainly focuses on.

Since being re-nominated by Democrats, Governor Corzine has linked his name to President Barack Obama in every breath he takes. He has tried to morph Republican Chris Christie into George W. Bush and even tries to run against Christie, a former federal prosecutor, to Bush’s first Attorney General, John Ashcroft. In addition to that and evoking Obama’s name every chance he gets, Corzine has brought the President in for rallies and is desperately trying to get him back for more. Until then though, he is using images that cast him as the President’s shadow.

All of this, I repeat, all of this, is based on the need for the type of extraordinarily large African-American voter turnout that New Jersey and the nation saw in 2008 when President Obama was on the ballot.

He is not alone.

Democrats nationwide are begining to shake in their boots at the thought of not having the ballot draw of President Obama above their names come this and next November. A Washington Post survey estimates that the African-American voter turnout in this year’s race governor in Virginia to be around 12%, 40% lower than last year. According to The Hill, in New Jersey, the black population is “unmoved” in the race for Governor. Abnormally high black turnout seen in 2008 which offset Republican turnout in proportions too hard to overcome, will not occur in 2009 and the same seems to be true for next year’s nationwide, mid-term elections.

According to Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen, If what looks like is going to happen in Virginia plays out on a national level, I do think Democrats will lose the House”. That comes from a partisan polling outfit, a leading partisan Democrat polling outfit.

Virginia’s African-American population is 20% while New Jersey’s stands at 14%. Both are substantial and while their unprecedented turnout in 2008 had a significant impact in the presidential race, it had an even stronger impact on local races. In many congressional districts, they provided the pivotal power that cost Republicans several seats in the House. However, in two special elections held in Louisiana after the race for President, Republicans won both seats away from Democrats, including one in a predominantly African-American, New Orleans district. This was in large part due to the fact that the President was not on the ballot and did not attract the larger than normal black voter turnout that helped Democrats win in ‘08.

In addition to a return to average black voter turnout in the coming elections, many expect fewer young voters to show up at the polls. President Obama captured the imaginations of many younger voters. His own youth and allure of change made many even register and vote for the first time. His not being on the ballot is more than likely to return the attendance numbers of young voters back to pre-Obama levels. Both will put democrats at a disadvantage come the next two Novembers.

All of this raises two questions and points.

First; Was President Obama simply elected because he was black? Many had wondered if it was impossible for him to get elected because they feared his color would prevent Caucasians to vote for him. As it turned it, considering the almost unanimous vote for Barack Obama from blacks because he is black, it would seem that the more pertinent question is not if being African-American would have prevented Barack Obama from getting “elected” but rather if his being African-American was the reason “why” he got elected.

It makes us have to wonder if in fact race is still not a problem but not the way we expected. Plenty of Caucasians voted for African-American Barack Obama, but few if any blacks voted for white John McCain. So is the real problem reverse racism?

The other question that must be tackled is, when will the Republican Party begin to appeal to black voters?

Republican Jack Kemp devoted much time and energy to delivering the Republican message of independence, self-reliance, prosperity and personal strength over government power. He tried to take this message to, as he put it, “the inner-cities”. He was right, but he was alone. Many

Republicans simply feel that it is impossible to receive support from African-Americans and the truth is that it is not impossible.

Until they deal with that truth, Republicans will have to consistently hope for “low voter turnout” to win elections and that is just not right. Our message is an inclusive one. Freedom, prosperity, education, personal empowerment are not terms limited to white people. They are terms that should inspire all Americans regardless of background or color. Until the G.O.P. realizes that, they will always be a marginal power in America.

As for Democrats, they too need stop relying on racial politics. They need to be able to campaign among all the population, not just use billboards in black communities designed to appeal strictly to African-American racial pride over their life conditions and the quality of life that their government limits them to.

Until Democrats accept that truth, they will have to count on the color of President Obama’s skin and his placement on the ballot as their sole opportunikty to stay in power. That is not an enduring strategy. President Obama is likely to be on the ballot only one more time and at this point in time, that isn’t even a sure thing yet.

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