Not only will it set an early tone for the presidential election of 2012, it will have a significant impact on the Obama policy direction and the pace in which those policies are implemented . It could even lead to the repeal and undoing of many of those policies which Obama has already adopted.
These midterms elections will also have a dramatic effect on all the elections to come for the next decade, as a total of 39 states hold state legislative and gubernatorial elections.
These elections will produce the state legislators and governors who will draw the new congressional and legislative districts that are created every ten years after the national census results are in . And the Party in control of each state legislature and executive mansion will pretty much draw district lines that will help keep them in control by gerrymandering districts that are favorable to them.
Given the added pressure of the ramifications of redistricting, this year’s midterm elections are more important than most. And at the moment, for Democrats, these pivotal midterm elections are looking more and more like they will produce crushing blows to their majorities, egos, and ideological direction.
As President Obama’s popularity continues to hemorrhage as profusely as the undersea geyser in the Gulf, Democrats allover the nation are finding themselves weighed down by their standard bearer and as more and more Americans are getting more and more dissatisfied with the their Party’s total control of the federal government, Democrats are also finding themselves on the run, with no place to hide and no cover from voter anger.
This situation could turn around but with less than 5 months to go before Rejection Day, it should be noted that historically, voters attitudes do not usually change dramatically in the last closing months of an election cycle . In fact more often than not, negative sentiments towards incumbents usually get even worse as time goes by. In the case of Democrats the trend towards the negative has been going on now for more than a year, and there is little if any evidence to show that things are about to turn around for them in just a few months.
That negativity is not just a product of Independent and Republican voters. A recent USA TODAY survey showed that only a mere 35% of Democrat and Democrat-leaning voters were “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting in November. That number is down eight percent since May and 22 percent since March, the lowest that enthusiasm has been for Democrats since 1998.
This means that even the Democrat base is turning their backs on Democrat incumbents and without that base, Democrats are going to have an extremely difficult time trying to maintain control of the Senate and House as well as many of the statehouses and legislatures that will draw the new district lines in which future elections will be held.
The conditions that got Democrats into this position is no one faults except President Obama’s. With Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid at his side, he took the hopes of many misguided Americans who elected him in 2008 and in less than two years, trounced those hopes and turned enthusiastic support in to bitter distrust and disgust.
After a year and a half of blaming everything on George Bush, Obama’s miracle spending elixir that was suppose to spend us into prosperity has produced nothing but mounting debt and steady levels of record high unemployment rates and low consumer confidence. In fact as many as 45% of the population now blames the poor economy on President Obama’s policies.
Not only do many Americans now oppose Obamanomics, a great multitude of them are turned off by many other policies that the President once called “hope”, and beyond that many even oppose the way in which Obama and his Democrat led Senate and House go about conducting business. The process to pass the government takeover of healthcare alone, revealed fatal flaws in the way they conduct business, flaws that will each be turned into powerful campaign ads against incumbents who supported the government takeover of healthcare.
The passage of Obamacare revealed a process so riddled with deception and corruption that some Democrats became so disgusted with the process that they switched parties and in one case, one Democrat Senator even decided to retire because of it.
Between hundreds of millions of dollars being offered to legislators for their votes, exempting themselves from the very legislation that they force on the rest of America, voting on legislation without even reading it and attempts to pass laws without even voting for them but instead just “deeming’ them as passed, much of the Democrat voting base finds themselves embarrassed by their Party and its conduct.
Combine these themes with the Presidents refusal to allow for an independent prosecutor to investigate corruption within the Administration regarding illegal job offers that attempted to influence federal elections, the Administration’s souring of relations and even offensive treatment of out greatest ally in the Middle East, Israel, the President’s desire to sue the state of Arizona for adopting and enforcing the same immigration laws that the federal government has, but refuses to uphold , and the mishandling of the oil disaster and ensuing environmental and economic crisis in the Gulf states, and what you have is a Democrat Party that is bracing for punishment for the helping hand they have given to a President who has done about as much for America as he has for the waters of the Gulf.
That is why for Democrats, this November 2nd will not be Election Day, it will be Rejection Day.
Never before has a political Party faced a potential reversal of fortunes as dramatic as the one before them now. In the House, Republicans need 39 seats to take control. Currently, they are sure to pick up 32 seats. But at least seven more are not out of reach.
In the Senate, Republicans need 9 seats for majority control and right now they have 7 towards that goal. But with states like California, Colorado, Nevada, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio all being toss-ups at the moment, there does exist a decent chance of finding the two seats needed.
Although some knowledgeable and often correct insider believe that the GOP is on the way to picking up as many as 70 new House seats and 10 new Senate seats, let us just say for a moment that Republicans only pick up the 32 House and 7 Senate seats thay they are now clear leaders in. That scenario will produce majorities that are way too close for comfort for Democrats. There will be little room for Democrats to lose any Democrat votes on any issue. That will either force the President and his Democrat House and Senate leaders to scale back a radical liberal agenda that is proving unpopular and hope to cut down on their losses in 2012, or they could just go for broke and polarize the electorate even more than it currently is, by forging ahead with their agenda in the hopes that they can pass all they want before they lose it all in November of 2012.
But if Republicans do take back control of both houses of Congress or even just the House of Representatives, things will get even more interesting around here.
If Democrats lose control of Congress in a matter of just two short years, the Democrat Party will implode and President Obama will prove to have been the fuse that led to it.
If Democrats are beaten as bad as they may very well be, not only will Republicans have a crowded field of contenders vying for the GOP presidential nomination, Democrats might also see their own unexpected fight for their party’s presidential nomination.
Unless President Obama can survive totally betraying his liberal base and suddenly reverse ideological course by moderating his policies, some Democrats may see denying him the nomination as crucial to their Party’s short term survival.
After announcing that he would retire at the end of this term because he is disgusted with the politics of Washington, Bayh is the perfect “anti-Obama” for Democrats seeking to improve their chances of survival. He is a seasoned and popular leader from America’s heartland who has legislative experience in Washington and as a former governor, also has executive experience.
Bayh is also seen as relatively conservative, something which Democrats are beginning to realize they need to have more of if they wish to be taken seriously by moderates and the all important Independent voter.
Having set the stage for an anti-establishment, anti-Washington campaign after his public denunciation of politics as usual during his retirement announcement, Bayh could have set the stage for a potential and rare challenge to a sitting President for his parties nomination.
But even more than a possible challenge from Evan Bayh is the increasingly legitimate opportunity for a challenge from a former opponent of President Obama………Hillary Clinton.
In the 2008 primaries, Democrats were almost evenly split between Clinton and Obama and although Obama ultimately received the most delegates after Hillary agreed to withdraw from the race, there were many states where she did beat the President by significant numbers and lately many of the voters in those states are making it a point to mention that they voted for her, not Barack Obama.
In fact, many Democrat and Independent voters have begun to sense that she should have been the nominee, not Barack Obama.
Now, two years later, after Barack Obama essentially endorsed Hillary Clinton’s leadership on the world stage by making her his Secretary State, if she were to resign and start running against the President, she might just be in a great position to diminish any criticism that President Obama would throw at her. Furthermore; Hillary could actually attract and earn the support of all those who have come to feel betrayed and disappointed by Barack Obama.
According to Rasmussen‘s daily tracking poll of the President, only 29% of those polled strongly approve of President Obama’s job performance while 44% strongly disapprove of his job performance and right now there is no indication of there being anything on the horizon that can help him improve those numbers.
In truth, after seeing President Obama turn his poorly received national address over the disaster in the Gulf into an excuse for passage of an unpopular Cap-and-Trade policy that would decimate our already battered economy, it looks like President Obama’s desire to spend, tax and invent more unpopular national policies, will only help to suppress his popularity and that of his Party‘s, even further.
If Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010 does turn out to be the Rejection Day that many predict it to be for Democrats, we might expect to see a halt to the extremist agenda that President Obama promised when he vowed to be a transformative figure in American politics.
When in 1994, the poor performance of the Clinton Administration produced the Republican revolution that put the GOP in control of the House and Senate for the first time in 4 decades, the Clintons reversed course and moderated their initiatives and policies to a degree. This President though, seems unwilling to accept failure or being wrong. President Obama’s natural arrogance and belief that he knows what is best for all Americans, despite what they want, is likely to force him to stay the course and just try to repackage his brand of European socialism differently than he has up to now.
But will the rest of his Party follow suit?
Democrats in the House probably will.
San Francisco’s Nancy Pelosi will be reelected to her seat in Congress and she will more than likely be reelected to lead House Democrats, whether that is as Speaker of the House or House Minority Leader is still a question though. But either way, the House Democrat leadership will continue to walk in lockstep with the President.
But not so will Senate Democrats.
Senate Democrats are likely to see their own Senate President, Harry Reid, lose his bid for re-election and even if Republicans do not take control of the Senate, as expected, the close split between Republicans and Democrats will be too close for comfort for those Democrats who will be up for reelection in 2012, when President Obama is suppose to be at the top of their ticket.
This will force many Democrats in the Senate to distance themselves as far away from President Obama as possible and it will make for a very poor support system of the President’s policies during the last two year’s of his term in office.
And if Rejection Day does turn out to be a dramatically profound beating of Democrats and puts Republicans back in control of one or both houses of Congress, expect to see first, President Obama’s Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, resign. Then not long after that, expect to see Hillary Clinton step down as Secretary of State. Once that happens you can anticipate Rahm Emanuel, an old, close ally and friend of the Clinton’s, to join forces with Hillary and lay the ground work for a challenge to President Obama for their Party’s presidential nomination.
All of this hinges on what this year, we are calling Rejection Day.
If Rejection Day 2010 produces the extraordinary number of Democrat losses that many expect, the course for a profound change in American history will be put in place during the two years to follow.