Tag Archives: schedule of poll closing times

Republicans Can’t Gloat, But They Can Listen To the Voters & Set an Example

Bookmark and Share    Two years ago I listened to Democrats tell me “Republicans have gone the way of the Whigs”, “this is the end of the Republican Party”, “the Republican Party is forever lost”, “they will never comeback”. These are direct quotes. They are the thoughts of euphoric liberals who saw, then President-Elect Barack Obama, as a messianic figure, a modern JFK and the “hope” of our nation. At the time, I could not help but think, first, these are the same people who think Joe Biden is a genius, and second, how naïve could these people be?

I for one understand the cyclical nature of politics and I also understood the nature of the Democrats slow rise to control between 2004 and 2008. So, confident in the principles that lie at the heart of the G.O.P., I knew the Republican Party was not dead. I knew that we would come back and I never abandoned the cause to bring ’em back.  I hoped for my Party to have learned a lesson and come to understand what they did wrong. I was also confident that, being dominated by liberals, the Democrat Party would prove incompetent. I stated such. I also stated that President Obama would be a reincarnation of the Carter presidency and prove to be a man controlled  by circumstances more than he controlled circumstances.

Between my two perceptions of the Parties, I knew the G.O.P. would be back. However, I never expected them to comeback quicker than any other time in American political history. Sadly, I cannot say that this record comeback was to my Party’s credit. It was solely due to the failure of Democrats. They performed in a way that demonstrated everything that people hate about politics. When it comes to partisanship, they defined it. When it came to pork, they stuffed their faces. On the issue of spending, one would have to work really hard to try to spend more than they have in just 20 short months. On negative issue, after negative issue, Democrats exaggerated the negatives. The closed door deals, the underhanded tactics, the passage of bills they did not read, the overreach of government, corruption, whatever people disliked about government and politics, Democrats did.

In the meantime, the G.O.P. had little chance to give the public reason to vote for them and offered little reason to do so either. What they did do though, was oppose all that Democrats did and all that the public disliked. For that reason, they were the beneficiaries of a protest vote against Democrats, not necessarily a vote for Republicans.

That is why I have penned the midterms of 2010 the Republican Rejuvenation. In 1994, the wave that swept Republicans into power was accurately called the Republican Revolution. And it was a revolution. People had approved of the ideas and direction that the G.O.P. was offering. But this time, the people are not that confident. So while this election has indeed rejuvenated the G.O.P., the rise back to power they have experienced is an opportunity, not a victory. It is a chance that is theirs to blow, or take advantage of.

It ‘s a chance to show leadership and prove that they understand that the leadership they must provide is that which leads us to a limited government that stays out of our lives, spends less of our money and more accurately reflects that which it was intended to when it was founded.

So now that the chance to prove ourselves is upon us, how do we as Republicans take advantage of the opportunity?

First; we must not act like Democrats. We must not be hypocrites and implement the same legislative tactics and sleights of hands that we denounced Democrats for using to pass legislation. Second; we must not approve increased spending which increases the overall federal budget and need to reduce spending and the deficit. Third; we must follow through on our promises and cut the size of government and repeal Obamacare and replace it, not with a more government, but rather a package of changes which help make healthcare more affordable through the free market, not through a behemoth new federal bureaucracy.

But this is not enough. Republicans must go the extra mile and prove that they have not only learned the ideological lessons which teach us that we can not compromise on big spending and big government, but that we also want less government when it comes to the personal lives of individual Americans. We must show that when we discuss less regulation, we also mean less regulation of the people and their personal lives. And beyond proving that we have learned our ideological lessons we must appeal to the nonpartisan nature of the average American and prove that we have learned how to provide leadership that is for country , not Party.

It is this cause which I feel the G.O.P. must act upon first.

When President Obama was elected, he proved himself to be quite partisan. It took him 18 months to meet one on one with Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. It took him a year to start discussing healthcare reform with Republicans. He has recently stated that Republicans can join with Democrats but have sit in the back and described the loyal opposition as “our enemy“.. These are not the acts and words of a leader who wants to cross the aisle and deal with all Americans or hear all opinions. The American people are tired of partisan leadership and partisan gridlock. That is why with this new opportunity at hand, Republicans must show that they understand when partisanship and politics must stop and productivity and progress must start.

To do so, I call upon the new Republican majority to reach out to the Democrat minority and our President. Reach out to them, one on one and say. “let’s start the new Congress right. Let’s start it off on a productive note and let’s answer this question. What do we agree upon?”

I want the Republican leadership to find out what Democrats and Republicans can do together in the first 100 days and start off on the right foot. Let us change the tone in Washington that the American working class hates about the political class.

While there are priorities which the G.O.P. will have a responsibility to address with haste, certain national priorities and commitments they campaigned on, at the same time, there must be some significant issues which the left and the right can agree on. Let us find out what they are and act upon them, now, not later.

This new day in politics must produce a new way in politics. A way that unites more than divides and lifts us up as nation more than weighs us down. In this new day, Republicans have a chance to say “no” to what needs to be rejected, but the responsibility to produce that which should be said “yes” to. The opportunity we have been handed must be used to demonstrate that we are deserving of the peoples vote and that when applied to government properly, the core Republicans principles we stand for, are key to the formulation of the best policies for the American people. This opportunity we have is nothing to gloat about. We have no right to gloat. We did not earn this victory in 2010, we simply were the beneficiary of the Democrat’s losses. But if we do what is right, now, we can truly be deserving of votes later.

Bookmark and Share
Advertisements

Leave a comment

Filed under politics

What To Look For In The Early Election Returns

Bookmark and Share    For those of you who find yourselves viewing election returns with the same type of intensity that most watch the Super Bowl with, POLITICS 24/7  previously offered a comprehensive election night analysis and schedule along with projections. It seems to have been quite popular and so  for those who are most anxious, POLITICS 24/7 now focuses in on the earliest returns and what they are likely to tell us about how the rest of the night will shape up.

The very first returns that have the chance of being reported on will come out of Indiana and Kentucky. Here, parts of the state close their polls at 6:00 pm EST. As a result, it is possible for some media outlets to report the results of some of the first House races. But it is also possible, in fact likely, that the results in a few of those congressional districts where the polls do close, will be too close to call.

6:00 pm

But sometime between 6:00 and 7:00 pm look at Indiana-2 and 9, and Kentucky-3 and 6.

In Indiana’s 9th CD, a loss by incumbent Democrat Baron Hill will be a sign that Republicans are indeed on track to take the House and see significant gains across the board.

If the races in Indiana‘s 2nd district and Kentucky’s 3rd, are too close to call, rest assured that that this will indeed be a wave election. But if Democrat incumbents Joe Donnelly and John Yarmuth actually lose, to their Republican opponents, Jackie Walorski and Todd Lally, you can take it as a sign that the 2010 midterms are going to be a tsunami that will produce historic gains for the Republicans that approach 70 seats.

 

 

7:00 pm

After 7:00 pm EST, the races that will act as barometers and need to be watched include:

 Kentucky’s Senate race, South Carolina-5, Florida-8 & 22, Georgia-8 & 12, Virginia-5 & 11.

The GOP will be on track for 50 or more seats with Republicans wins in the Kentucky Senate race with Rand Paul, in addition to the following House races;

South Carolina-5 (Mick Mulvaney-R over John Spratt-D), Florida-8 (Daniel Webster-R over Allen Grayson-D), Florida-22 (Allen West-R over Ron Klein-D), Georgia-8 (Austin Scott-R over Jim Marshall-D) and, Virginia-5 (Robert Hurt over Tom Perriello-D)

While those wins will help verify that the G.O.P. is on track, the following results between 7 and 8 O’clock will be signs that Democrats are about to be crushed worse than expected;

Georgia-12 (Ray McKinney-R over John Barrow-D) and Virginia-11 (David McKinley-R over Mike Oliviero-D)

7:30 pm

Between 7:30 and 8:00 pm, the results to look at will come out West Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina.

Wins by John Kasich in Ohio’s gubernatorial race and Ohio’s 1st CD (Steve Chabot-R over Steve Driehaus-D) will show that the G.O.P. is on track and that trends are holding. But the races that will indicate that the Republican wave may bigger than anyone anticipates will come from West Virginia’s race for U.S. Senate and the following House races;

 WV-1, WV-3, NC-11 and OH-6

Any combination of two or more wins in these races will point to Republican gains in the House that will exceed 62 seats and if John Raese pulls it out and beats back popular Democrats Governor Joe Mancin for Senate in West Virginia, the G.O.P. will have the potential of taking control of the United States Senate.

8:00 pm

After the 8 o’clock hour, the outcome of the 2010 midterm will begin to be set in stone.

News out of Illinois of Republican pickups in the Senate by Kirk and the statehouse by Brady, will keep everything track in still make it possible for Republicans to take control of the United States Senate. From Pennsylvania, word of Pat Toomey defeating Joe SaysTax will be further evidence of the trend holding. Of course something else to watch for in these wins, will be the margins of victory. If any of these races produce leads of 5 or more percent, that will help prove that polling models are inaccurate and were unable to detect the undercurrent of voter sentiments. A sure sign that things will be worse off for Democrats than anyone anticipate, would be a Republican win over Democrat Patrick Duval in the race for Governor of Massachusetts.

The House races to look at here will be:

Connecticut-5, Pennsylvania-3 and11, NH 1, Illinois-14, and Mississippi-4

A majority of Republicans here are keeping the G.O.P on track for a big night. But if it is going to be a really big night for Republicans they will be winning the following races:

Pennsylvania-8 (Michael Fitzpatrick-R over Patrick Murphy-D), New Jersey-3, (Jon Runyan-R over John Adler-D)

Democrat losses of these two seats will be a sign that the anti-Democrat sentiments are seeping into some of the bluest states in one of the bluest regions of the country. Other such races include:

 Massachusetts-10, Illinois-17 and, Missouri-4

 And two seats that Democrats losses would mean that they are going to be dead in the water  would be:

New Jersey 6 and 12

Here Democrats Frank Pallone and Rush Holt are seemingly safe seats, but there are rumblings that could prove them not to be safe for big government, big spending liberals anymore.  That and extremely hard fought races by their Republican opponents Anna Little and Scott Sipprele makes these races worth watching.  Pallone and Holt may not lose but if they have a margin of victory that is less than 6 or 7 percent, Democrats will be living in fear from now to 2012.

 But aside from these races, keep your eyes out for the returns in

Massachusetts’ 4th CD and Michigan’ 15th

If long serving John Dingel goes down in Michigan, Democrats better hold on for a tougher ride than they expected, but if Barney Frank loses to Republican Sean Bielat in MA-4, Republicans may be on their way to taking 70 seats.

Defeating Barney Frank may be unlikely, but after Republican Scott Brown was elected to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate and a strong race by Sean Bielat, if there are going to be any miracles on election night, they will take place here in the Bay State.

9:00 pm

As the 9 o’clock hour rolls out look for the House to be officially declared to have changed hands and gone to Republican control. But during this hour, some of the House races that will give a hint as to the size of their majority, are;

Louisiana-2, Minnesota-1 & 8, Michigan-15, NY-2, 13, 19, 24, Rhode Island and Wisconsin 13

While many other seats are going to fall to Republicans after 9 o’clock, especially in New York, Colorado and Wisconsin and Michigan, of the seats mentioned above, if Democrats who are likely to win in these districts, lose any combination of 4 or more, Republicans are looking at House gains approaching 70 seats

10:00 pm

Long before this hour, we should have established that the House has gone to Republicans but we should also have a good idea on how the rest of the chips will fall. I anticipate that after this hour, the balance of power in the Senate will come down to California and Washington where Boxer and Murphy are at risk (Murphy more so than Boxer), and Alaska where write-n ballots will drag out the time it takes to declare Joe Miller the winner.

Sharon Angle is likely to win in Nevada but as for this race, look for the early numbers that come out of Clark County.

Clark County is the home of Las Vegas and most of the state’s population. Clark County is overwhelmingly Democrat, but it is the only part of the state that is. If returns out of Clark County are showing Harry Reid with a lead over Angle that is not higher than 8%, Harry Reid will have lost his bid for reelection.

Other races of special interest throughout the night will be Louisiana-2 where incumbent Joseph Cao is likely to lose to Democrat Cedric Richmond.  If Cao wins, this will be a sign that Democrats are underperforming among their base and minorities musch worse than anyone thought possible.  The same will be able to be said if Democrat Incumbent Loretta Sanchez loses to Republican Van Tran in California’s 47th congressional district. 

Also of interest will be Hawaii’s at-large seat in Congress and race for Governor.  Republicans have a decent but unlikely chance of keeping Charles Djou in office but an even less likely chance of keeping its statehouse in Republican hands aginst popular retiring Congressman Neil Abercrombie.

Bookmark and Share

Leave a comment

Filed under politics

POLITICS 24/7’s 2010 Election Night Schedule, Projections & Analysis

Bookmark and Share     In these closing days of the midterm elections, Democrats have been unable to do anything to stop the hemorrhaging of support that continues to drain away from them. At the same time, the wind behind the backs of the G.O.P. continues to build and with no resistance in sight, the momentum for Republican electoral victories is only strengthening. Two weeks ago, I feared that Republicans had peaked in the polls. That would have been a premature occurrence and not boded well. But since then, as GOP candidates continue to rise in the polls, it is clear that Republicans did not peak too early. All indications are that the momentum is still behind them and building. As such, history shows that many seats which are close enough to be considered tossups and those that have Democrats holding only slight leads, are more likely to fall into Republican hands then Democrat hands.

In addition to that and the massive swing of Independent and women voters to Republicans from Democrats, I believe that the anti-Democrat sentiment is currently running so unusually strong and deep that traditional polling models are not able to accurately enough read the depth of support for Republican candidates that exists out there. At least not as accurately as they normally can be.

The polls most reflective of final election results are those that are taken among people who are considered likely voters. But this year, there exists a group of voters which can not yet be identified by existing polling models. They fall in neither the category of “first time voters” or “likely voters”. It is the segment of the electorate which is also the most angry and the most likely to vote against Democrats. They are voters who became fed up with government as much as 5 to10 years ago and tuned out and stopped voting. But now, they have become so angered that they have come out of inactivity and are going to be some of the first people to cast their ballots against Democrats on Election Day. Existing polls are unable to account for this demographic and are allowing for results that do not contain the influence of these voters.

It is this unseen undercurrent of Republican support which I believe is going to help tip tossup races in favor of G.O.P. challengers and produce a number of surprises in races that are leaning toward Democrats. For instance, while I admit that Barbara Boxer is likely to be reelected, I have a feeling that Republican Carly Fiorna is poised to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the night and throw Boxer into a long overdue retirement from politics. The same undercurrent that I believe may sweep Fiorna into the Senate, will probably also be sweeping Republicans Dino Rossi of Washington and, I am going out on a limb by saying West Virginia’s John Raese, also to victory.

On the Senate side I believe that Republicans establish majority control by winning in:

Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia.

West Virginia and Washington are going to be too close for comfort though, and these results may not be official for quite a while, especially in Washington where mail in ballots are going to make recounts a tedious and time consuming process.

As for Alaska, this will probably be the very last race to be declared and won’t be done on Tuesday. Expect a careful and methodical recount of tons of write-in votes and court challenges. In the case of Delaware, I am probably one of the few people who is still not writing-off the ability for Christine O’Donnell and the voters of Delaware to make the professional pundits, political establishment and the media, look stupid, by pulling off an unlikely surprise upset victory over Democrat Chris Coons.

So while I an sure that  the G.O.P. will have a minimum net gain of 8 seats in the Senate, I believe that some combination of wins in Washington, West Virginia and/or California, will give Republicans control of the Senate with a total of 51 to 49 seats. But the very real possibility of  a 50/50 tie does actually exist here. If that happens, expect the GOP to end up taking control at some point during the course of the new year as at least one Democrat or two switch Parties ahead of their 2012 reelection bids in an attempt to avoid becoming  a casualty when President Obama is on the top of the liberal ticket.

On the House side, I expect Republicans to increase their existing numbers by a minimum of 58 districts that are currently held by Democrats, but project that they actually win 62 seats and have a good chance to gain as many as 68. This would bring Republicans from the current number of 178, to anywhere from 240 to 246 House seats. Such numbers would give the G.O.P. one of its largest majorities since 1946.

Many may believe that these figures are too high. As a skeptic, under normal conditions, I might believe so too. However, even though I am typically a pessimist and even though I usually prefer to lower expectations in politics, I am convinced that my projections are not exaggerated or overly optimistic and I believe there to be a greater chance for the higher estimate to come to fruition than there is for my lower estimate.

But the proof will be in the pudding and no matter how much statistical data and fine tuning of local factors that I combine together to reach my projections, only each individual voter ultimately knows what they will do with their private ballot. And Lord only knows the variables that things like the weather will add to the mix.

But signs of the final results will reveal themselves early on in the evening of November 2nd.

 `

6:00 pm: Parts of Indiana and Kentucky;

Polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6:00 pm, but we may not hear any results until 7:00 PM when the rest of the polls in those states close  along with Virginia, Georgia, Vermont, South Carolina and parts of Florida.

 `

7:00 pm: Virginia, Georgia, Vermont, South Carolina, Parts of Florida, All of Indiana and Kentucky;

The hour between 7:00 and 8:00 pm may produce election results that provide us with a hint as to whether the 2010 midterm elections are going to be for Republicans a current, wave or tsunami.

South Carolina’s Niki Haley will hold on to the Governor’s mansion for Republicans but it is South Carolina’s 5th CD which may be one of the very first signs of just how an unusually large number of normaly safe Democrat seats and incumbents are about to fall like dominos. Here, if longtime incumbent John Spratt loses to Republican Mick Mulvaney, people like Michigan’s John Dingel and Massachusetts Barney Frank, better pull out the rosaries, find God, light a candle and say a few prayers because for the first time in their careers they will most definitely be vulnerable.

From Indiana, The GOP will gain a senate seat, replacing retiring Evan Bayh with Dan Coats and news that 8th and 9th district Republicans Larry Buschon and Todd Young defeat Democrat incumbents Trent Van Haaftern and Baron Hill will indicate that Republicans are on track to win 55 or more seats. Should they lose, the GOP will still be in line for at least 40 seats but significantly more than that may in fact not be realistic. In Indiana’s 2nd district, if returns are still too close to declare incumbent Democrat Congressman Joe Donnelly the winner, or if his Republican opponent Jackie Walorski beats him, do not be surprised by GOP gains of 60 or more seats.

In Florida, early indications that Republicans are on track for 40 or more seats will be seen in early returns that give the GOP wins in FL-2 with Republican Steve Sutherland, and in the 8th, where the unbridled liberalism of Allen Grayson, one of the most obnoxious and arrogant members of Congress, should be shut up and shot down by Republican Daniel Webster. But if the G.O.P. is going to be riding a tsunami to control of the House, Lt. Col. Allen West, my favorite candidate of all running for the House, will win in Fl-22, along with Republican Sandy Adams over Democrat Suzanne Kosmas in Fl-24.

 `

7:30 pm: West Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio

Races to look at as barometers between 6 and 8 pm include KY-3, where incumbent John Yarmuth should win by at least three or more percent. If his opponent, Todd Lally pulls off an unlikely win, this election will be a bigger landslide to the G.O.P. than anyone anticipated.

The same goes for KY-6 (Ben Chandler vs. Andy Barr), NC-2 (Bob Etherdige vs. Renee Elmers), VA- 5 (Tom Perriello vs. Robert Hurt), GA-12 (John Barrow vs. Raymond McKinney), OH-6 (Charlie Wilson vs. Bill Johnson), and WV-3 (Nick Rahall vs. Spike Maynard) and we should be getting news on SC-5 (John Spratt vs. Mick Mulvaney),

Perhaps the biggest news at this time will be the news that Rob Portman keeps Ohio’s senate in the Republican column and that John Kasich takes the Governor’s mansion away from incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland.  Kasich is anoother favorite candidate of mine in the 2010 midterm elections.  Like Marco Rubio, he is potential presidential material and no matter what a rising star on the national stage of conservativbe leadership.

At the hour of eight o’clock, the real dye will be cast.

 `

8:00 pm: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida CD’s 1 & 2, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas;

At this point in time, despite Linda McMahon and the Republican candidate for Governor losing their races in Connecticut, look for CT-5 (Chris Murphy vs. Sam Caligiuri), to switch and if CN-4 also falls, you will have further confirmation of the 2010 midterm elections being historic. During the eight o’clock hour, one of the most powerful indicators of just how big Republicans may win by, will play out dramatically in Mississippi’s 4th CD. If incumbent Blue Dog Democrats Gene Taylor goes down to Republican Steven Palazzo, President Obama might want to consider pulling a Charlie Crist and registering as an Independent because a loss by Taylor will mean that there is no place for Democrats to hide and no issue for them to hide behind.

Another race that could be indicative of the “big mo” behind the G.O.P. will be Maine’s 1st district where Democrat Chellie Pingree could be beaten by Republican Dean Scontras.

The state to produce the biggest switch to the G.O.P. this hour may be Pennsylvania where, Republicans Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey will take the statehouse and U.S. Senate and as many as 7 seats could go red. The five seats most likely to switch are PA-3 (Kathy Dahlkemper-D vs. Mike Kelly-R), PA-7 (Patrick Meehan-D vs. Bryan Lentz-R), PA-8 (Patrick Murphy-D vs. Michael Fitzpatrick-R), PA-10 (Chris Carney-D vs. Tom Marino-R), PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski vs. Lou Barletta).

The real kicker here will be the results of Massachusetts 4th district.  In order for these midterms elections to be a complete success Barney “Mac” Frank must be eliminated from public service.  Frank is a boil on the seat of government, a dangerous drain on federal integrity and resources, and a government official whose fingerprints are alover the housing market crisis and the subsequent economic coolapse that ensued.  His opponent Sean Bielat has made this the most competetive races Barney Frank has ever had  and proven himself to be an energetic, trustworthy leader for Massachusetts and fiscal responsibility in a limited government.  Bielat is not likely to win but he will come closer than anyone expects and as far as I am concerned, after the shocking election of Scott Brown to the the U.S. Senate, an election whicg created the trend of turning the political brown instead of red, I believe that potential for a an electoral riptide exists here and that Barney Frank could actually be carried away by the anti-establishment, anti-Democrat sentiment that swept Scott brown to victory.

In regards to the U.S. Senate, sometime between 8 and 8:30 we should be hearing that my favorite Senate candidate, Marco Rubio, has pummeled both Charlie “What Am I Now” Crist and Democrat Kendrick “I should have stayed in the House” Meek.

We should also hear that in addition to Joe “Says Tax” Sestak in Pennsylvania, we can say goodbye to Mr. Alexi Giannoulias, President Obama’s corrupt banker buddy and welcome his Republican opponent, Republican Mark Kirk, to the Senate from Illinois.

As far as the races for Governor go, after the 8:00 pm closures, in addition to Paul LePage taking Maine, Tom Corbet taking Pennsylvania, and Florida going to Rick Scott, the GOP will also increase the number of Governors in Illinois with Bill Brady.

`

8:30 pm: Arkansas

At 8:30 pm, Arkansas closes the book on the 2010 midterms with a stinging and embarrassing defeat of Democrat Senator Blanche Lincoln and the flip of AR-2 from Democrat Joyce Elliot to Republican Tim Griffith.

A defeat of Democrats in AR-1 and 4 is not likely but possible. If they do fall to Republicans, this will be further evidence that we will be in the midst of a total shift in the tectonic plates of the political landscape.

Before 9:00 pm, we should already know that Nancy Pelosi’s tenure as majority leader is just a bad memory. But during the 9 o’clock hour, a flood of states will be delivering additional blows to Democrats.

`

9:00 pm: Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

Between 9 and 10 pm, the G.O.P. will make big gains in the all important statehouses which will be instrumental in drawing preferential districts for the incumbent Party for the next decade and also in making big strides toward control of the United States Senate.

Republicans will pick up Governors in Kansas, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Wyoming, and have a good chance of taking Minnesota. Rhode Island’s gubernatorial leadership is likely to flip from Republican hands to Independent hands, but it is still somewhat of a tossup. And while I do not see us keeping Rhode Island, if by chance, Republican John Robitale defeats liberal Independent Lincoln Chafee and Liberal Democrat Frank Caprio, Democrats will need sedatives to get through the rest of the night because that will be indicative of a pending national whooping that will hit them so hard, FDR will feel it.

As for the Senate, say goodbye to Michael Bennet in Colorado, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.

House races to look at for signs of how substantial the night will be for Republicans, include; CO-7 (Permultter-D vs. Frazier), RI-1 (Cicilline-D vs. Loughlin-R), and especially NY-1 (Bishop-D vs. Altschuler-R), NY-13 (McMahon vs. Grimm-R), TX- 25 (Dagget-D vs. Campbell-R), and MN-8 (Oberstar vs. Cravaack). Any combination of three or more of these seats will be one of the final signs that Democrats are spiraling out of control in this election. From those states which wrap their voting up during this hour, at least 16 or 17 seats should switch from Democrats to Republicans. Some of the biggest gains are likely to come from New York where the GOP will pick at least 4 seats, (NY-1, 19, 20, and 29), but possibly as many as 6 with wins. A remarkable chance exists for Republicans to take back the 13th CD which is encompasses the Staten Island and Southwest Brooklyn section of New York City’s five boroughs. This seat has been the only one in which New York City sent a Republican to occupy. It was in Republican hands for decades but last year fell to Democrats after Congressman Vito Fossella received a DUI charge in Virginia and subsequently revealed that while he was away in Washington from his Staten Island family, he spent time with his mistress and illegitimate child in Virginia. The candidacy of Michael Grimm and the anti-Democrat environment we are in, makes this a good last chance to take this seat back.

The other New York race that is well worth watching is out on the Southern tip of Long Island where Tim Bishop, (D, NY-1) could find himself a victim of a trend that began on Long Island last November when one of its two counties was taken by surprise when Republican Ed Mangano came from nowhere to defeat a safe Democrat incumbent in a race that was largely seen as uncompetitive. Although that was Nassau County and NY-1 is in Suffolk County, there is not much that differentiates the one county from the other when it comes to political sentiments. In this congressional district, Republican Randy Altschuler is certainly giving incumbent Tim Bishop a run for his money and if there are going to be a lot of surprises on November 2nd, NY-1 is as a good a place as any.

`

10:00 pm: Arizona, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Nevada, Utah

It may not be made official for an hour or so but the biggest news of the night will happen not long after the stroke of 10 when Sharon Angle embarrasses Democrats by taking down their Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid. Further embarrassment will include the ridiculously lopsided loss of Harry’s son Rory Reid, who is running for Governor of Nevada. Hopefully the Reid family will take the message and crawl back under the rock they emerged from.

In this same round of poll closings Iowa will give the GOP a statehouse pickup in Iowa. House seats to watch include AZ-7 where a win by real life rocket scientist, Republican Ruth McClung could defeat incumbent Raul Grijalva. McClung is not favored to win but if she did, it would be indicative of 2010 being much more than a Republican wave election. Other races which are suppose to remain in Democrats hands but could be upsetting the establishment are AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords-D vs. Jesse Kelly-R), ID-1 (Walt Minnick-D vs. Raul Labrador-R), IA-3 (Boswell-D vs. Brad Zaun-R) NV-3 (Titus-D vs. Heck-R), ND-At Large (Pomeroy-D vs. Berg-R), and UT-2 (Matheson-D vs. Morgan Phipot-R).

`

11:00 pm: California, Washington and Oregon;

In this round of poll closings, the GOP will simply be putting the icing on the cake House, but could determine whether or not they take control of the Senate.

In California, Republicans may very well control in Sacramento with the defeat of Meg Whitman to Jerry Brown and while only a major last minute development can save her, Carly Fiorina will in my opinion fare far better and ultimately pack Boxer up with a victory of a percent or less.

Washington state is likely to produce an upset by sending Republican Dino Rossi to Washington and retiring incumbent Patty Murray by another slim margin of victory, but mail in ballots will prevent this from being confirmed for days, at least.

The most interesting House race to be watched will be in California where Democrat Loretta Sanchez is in the tightest race of her nearly two decade in office as she tries to beat off a challenge Van Tran. Vietnamese Tran, a California state legislator, is unifying the significant 15% of the district populations which is Vietnamese, along with a coalition of Independent Hispanics, African-Americans and Caucasians, along with a sizeable Republican vote. Together, these groups are countering the overwhelming 69% Hispanic makeup of the district. But that is a pretty solid voting bloc and if Van Tran can pull this one off, it will in large part be due to the strong undercurrent that is sweeping Democrats away. Sanchez should win this election the surprise factor has great promise in CA-47.

`

12:00 pm: Alaska, Hawaii

At this point, Republicans may be needing a victory by Joe Miller to take control of the Senate. But despite losing the GOP nomination in Alaska, Miller’s closets opponent in the race, Lisa Murkowski, is still a Republican and if her outside chance of successful write-in candidacy comes true, she is still likely to caucus with Republicans and in that regards, accomplish the same goal as far as who will control the Senate. Either way, expect Alaska’s results to no be made official for quite a while.

In Hawaii, CD-1 will be an attention grabber. Here, Republican Charles Djou recently won the seat in a special election. Yet observers favor his opponent, Democrat Colleen Hanabusa to take this seat back for Democrats. I think Djou can keep it, albeit by a small margin, but by a majority nonetheless. As for the governor’s race in Hawaii, while Republican Duke Aiona has made this race a tossup between popular retiring Congressman Neil Abercrombie, I fear Abercrombie is just to popular to defeat in Hawaii. The fact that Aiona has made this race as close as it is, is a tremendous credit to him, but in the end, I see Republicans losing the hold they had on the Hawaii statehouse with retiring Republican Governor Linda Lingle, to Neil Abercrombie.

Photobucket

No matter what, Republicans will be back in a position of power that will make it at the very least alter the Obama agenda and make it impossible for the President and Democrats to try to circumvent them. If the GOP happens to take control of both the Senate and the House, you can rest assured that President Obama is going to be a different President than he has been over these past 22or so months. Will he abandon his agenda and moderate in order to work with Congress or will he stick to his guns and risk an endless stream of rejection from Congress? When Bill Clinton was faced with the Republican Revolution of 1994, he was reduced to having to explain to a reporter how he would be relevant to the political process during the second half of his term.

Now, with the Republican Rejuvenation of 2010, President Obama may be faced with the same need to prove how relevant he will be. This will certainly be the case if Republicans can exploit the small chance of taking over the senate as well as the House. But Bill Clinton was able to prove that he was indeed relevant. He began to pay attention to the pulse of the people and began working with the G.O.P. instead of constantly working against them. This will be harder for President Obama to do though. The has publicly told Republicans to sit on the back of the bus and called Republicans “the enemy”. Still, unless President Obama wants to endorse gridlock and seek to get reelected by claiming that the GOP is still in the way of his agenda which has proven to be a failure, he will be forced to moderate. How he reacts to the new political in America will be quite interesting. If he is the politically charismatic genius that some claim, he could turn things around and resurrect himself among mainstream and moderate America and the powerful Independent vote.

As for Republicans, it must be remembered that they are not winning because people like, trust or want them. They are skeptical of the GOP and not fully convinced that they understand that the people do not want to compromise on the issues of big government, big spending and further encroachment of our constitutional rights. This means that Republicans must be unafraid of saying “no” to the President. They must not backtrack on attempts to repeal government healthcare, cut the size, scope and cost of government or cave in to political correctness and fail to live up to the promises made in 2010.

The final political effect of the 2010 election results will be seen in the 2012 race for President a contest that will begin on the Republican side on Wednesday November 3rd. On the Democrat side it may not begin start up quite as fast. President Obama will be spending some time outside of the country in the days to follow the election. And when he returns home he will be making every single policy decision with 2012 in mind and others. But others like Hillary Clinton may also be doing the same. People like her might feel that the devastating losses that Democrats will have suffered, will require them to save the Party from President Obama and the nation from his policies. Such thinking could be behind the resignation from her position as Secretary of State some time during the beginning of 2011.

 

   GOPElephantRight.jpg GOP Elephant Right image by kempiteStars01.gif picture by kempiteGOPElephantLeft.jpg GOP Elephant Left image by kempite

Republican House Pickups

Results bewtween 6:00 pm and 8:00 pm

  • Indiana 8                – Larry Buschon over Trent Van Haaften
  • Indiana 9                – Todd Young over Baron Hill
  • Florida 2                 – Steve Sutherland over Allen Boyd
  • Florida 8                 – Daniel Webster over Allen Grayson
  • Florida 22               – Allen West over Ron Klein
  • Florida 24               – Sandy Adams over Suzanne Kosmas
  • Virginia 2                – Scott Rigell over Glenn Nye
  • Virginia 5                – Robert Hurt over Tom Perriello
  • South Carolina 5  –  Mick Mulvaney over John  Spratt
  • Georgia 2                 – Mike Keown over Sanford Bishop
  • Georgia 8                 – Austin Scott over Jim Marshall
  • Ohio 1                        – Steve Chabot over Steve Driehaus
  • Ohio 15                     – Steve Stivers over Mary Jo Kilroy
  • Ohio 16                     – Jim Rannaci over John Boccieri
  • Ohio 18                     – Bob Gibbs over Zach Space
  • North Carolina 8  – Harold Johnson over Larry Kissel
  • West Virginia 1      – David McKinley over Mike Oliverio

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

**indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Georgia 12               – Raymond McKinney over John Barrow**
  • Indiana 2                  – Jackie Walorski over Joe Donnelly**
  • Kentucky 3              – Todd Lally over John Yarmuth
  • Kentucky 6              – Andy Barr over Ben Chandler
  • Virginia 9                 – Morgan Griffith over Rick Boucher
  • Virginia 11               – Keith Fimian over Gerry Connolly
  • Ohio 6                        – Bill Johnson over Charlie Wilson**
  • West Virginia 3      – Spiike Maynard over Nick Rahall
  • North Carolina 11   – Jeff Miller over Heath Schuler

 

Results bewtween 8:00 pm and 9:00 pm

  • Connecticut 4           – Dan Dibecella over Jim Hines 
  • Connecticut 5           – Sam Caliguiri over Chris Murphy
  • Illinois 11                   – Asam Kinzinger over Debbie Halvarson
  • Illinois 14                   – Randy Huttgren over Bill Foster
  • Illinois 17                  – Bobby Schilling over Ohil Hare
  • Maryland 1                – Andy Harris over Frank Kratovil
  • Massachusetts 10   -Jeff Perry over Bill Keating
  • New Hampshire 1   – Frank Guinta over Carol Shea Porter
  • New Hampshire 2   – Charlie Bass over Ann McLane Kuster
  • New Jersey 3            – Jon Runyan over John Adler
  • Pennsylvania 3        – Mike Kelly over Kethy Dahlkemper
  • Pennsylvania 7        – Bryan Lentz over Patrick Meehan
  • Pennsylvania 8        – Michael Ftzpatrick  over  Patrick Murphy
  • Pennsylvania 10     – Tom Marino over Chris Carney
  • Pennsylvania 11      – Lou Barletta over Paul Kanjorski
  • Tennessee 4               – Scott DeJarlas over Lincoln Davis
  • Tennessee 6              – Diane Black over Brett Carter
  • Tennessee 8              – Stephen Fincher over Roy Herron
  • Texas 17                     – Bill Flores over Chet Edwards
  • Florida 2                    – Steve Sutherland over Allen Boyd
  • Arkansas 1                – Rick Crawford over Chad Causey
  • Arkansas 2               –  Tim Griffin over Joyce Elliot

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Alabama 2                         – Martha Roby over Bobby Bright **
  • Massachusetts 4             – Sean Bielat over Barney Frank **
  • Mississippi 4                    – Steven Palazzo over Gene Taylor **
  • New Jersey 6                   – Anna Little over Frank Pallone **
  • New Jersey 12                 – Scott Sipprele over Rush Holt ** 
  • Pennsylvania 4               – Keith Rothfus over Jason Altmire **
  • Pennsylvania 12            – Tim Burns over Mark Critz **
  • Texas 15                           – Eddie Zamora over Ruben Hinjosa
  • Texas 25                          – Donna Campbell over Lloyd Doggett **

 

Results bewtween 9:00 pm and 10:00 pm

  • Colorado 3                  – Scott Tipton over John Salazar
  • Colorado 4                  – Cory Gardner over Betsy Markey
  • Louisaina 3                 – Jeff Landry over Ravi Sangisetty
  • Kansas 3                       – Kevin Yoder over Stephene Moore
  • Michigan 1                   – Dan Banishek over Gary McDowell
  • Michigan 7                  – Tim Walberg over Mark Schauer
  • New York 19              – Nan Hayworth over John Hall
  • New York 20             – Chris Gibson over Scott Murphy
  • New York 23             – Matt Doheny over Bill Owens
  • New York 29             – Tom Reed over Matt Zeller
  • New Mexico 2           – Harry Teague over Steve pearce
  • South Dakota -AL    – Kristi Noem over Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin
  • Texas 23                     – Quico Canseco over Ciro Rodrigues
  • Wisconsin 7              – Sean Duffy over Julie Lassa
  • Wisconsin 8              – Reid Ribble over Steve Kagen

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

  **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Colorado 7                 – Ryan Frazier over Ed Perlmutter**
  • Louisiana 2        – *Cao over Richmond **~(see note below)
  • Minnesota 1               – Randy Demmer over Tim Walz
  • Minnesota 7              –  Lee Byberg over Collin Peterson
  • Minnesota 8               – Chip Cravaack over Jim Oberstar**
  • Michigan 15               – Rob Steele over John Dingel**
  • New York 2                – John Gomez over Steve Israel**
  • New York 13             – Michael Grimm over Michael McMahon**
  • New York 24             – Richard Hanna over Michael Arcuri
  • New York 25             – Anne Marie Buerkle over Dan Maffei
  • New York 27             – Leonard Roberts over Brian Higgins
  • New Mexico 3           – Tom Mullins over Ben Ray Lujan
  • Rhode Island             – John Loughlin over David Cicilline**
  • Wisconsin 13             – Dan Kapanke over Ron Kind**

 

Results between 10:00 pm and 11:00 pm

  • Arizona 1                               – Paul Gosar over Ann Kirkpatrick
  • Arizona 5                              – David Schwiekert over Harry Mitchell
  • Arizona 8                              – Jesse Kelly over Gabrielle Giffords **
  • Idaho 1                                   – Raul Labrador over Walt Minnick
  • North Dakota -AL              – Rick Berg over Earl Pomeroy
  • Nevada 3                               – Joe Heck over Dina Titus

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Arizona 7                              – Ruth McClung over Raul Girjalva **
  • Iowa 3                                    – Brad Zaun over Leonard Boswell
  • Utah 2                                    – Morgan Philpot over Jim Mathison

 

Results between 11:00 pm and 12:00 am

  • California 11             – David Harmer over Jerry McNerny   
  • California 20            – Andy Vidak over Jim Costa
  • Washington 3          – Denny Heck over Jamie Herrera

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • California 18                   – Mike Berryhill over Dennis Cardoza
  • California 47                  – Van Tran over Lorretta Sanchez**
  • Washington 2                 – John Koster over Rick Larsen**
  • Washington 9                 – Dick Muri over Adam Smith
  • Oregon 4                          – Art Robinson over Peter DeFazio
  • Oregon 5                         – Scott Brunn over Kurt Schrader**

 

Results after 12:00 am

  • Hawaii 1                 – Charles Djou over Colleen Hanabusa
Bookmark and Share

1 Comment

Filed under politics

IS INTIMIDATION SHAPING THE ELECTION ?

antpantherj1ACORN offers cigarettes to register the homeless to vote multiple times. Identification is not needed to prove you are who you say you are when voting. New Yorkers register false addresses in Ohio to change that states results. Mickey Mouse is even registered to vote for Obama in Florida. Members of the National Football league are erroneously registered to vote in Nevada ……

These are just some examples of the fraud being used to put Barack Obama over the top in the 2008 and election. Examples like this are widespread. They have sparked countless federal and state investigations but now, during the final hours of our historic quadrennial election, intimidation kicks into high gear.

Confirmed reports have just been released detailing that two Black Panthers have been guarding entranceways into polling places in Philadelphia. One brandished a nightstick. When asked to remove himself from the property the Obama enforcer refused.

Philadelphia police had to escort the Black Panther away.

Random incident?antfists6

Nothing that occurs in the Obama campaign is random. Voter fraud is sponsored by the Obama/Biden campaign through coordinated activities with ACORN and so is their “Give Over Your Vote” effort.

Is there a racial component to all this? Well liberals will accuse the delivery of these facts to be racist propoganda. But when considering the facts in this case, critics of voter intimidation would say that a Black Panther guarding the entrance to a polling site has a racial component to it. The Obama enforcers refusing to leave while shouting “you can’t stop a black man from winning this election” just confirms it.

If Black Panthers with nightsticks are being used as poll workers, I can’t wait to see what type of people will be used to fill out the presidential cabinet of a Barack Obama administration.

Leave a comment

Filed under politics

McCAIN DEFEATS OBAMA ?

antpaper1All indications are that by as early as 8:30 pm, on the east coast, we will be having to get accustomed to hearing the words “President-Elect Obama.”

The only question that seems to really remain is whether or not Obama will win by a landslide or not. It won’t make a difference how much he wins by, a win is a win, but having already baptized Barack Obama as the King of Kings, the media needs to create some kind of suspense.

Yet, despite the polls I have a feeling that polls are a bit off.

We know that all the polls have been recalibrated to make up for assumed higher democratic turnout as well as a higher than normal number of first time, younger and African-American voters. In trying to adjust their polling results for these anticipated factors, pollsters have intentionally polled more democrats than usual. That would of course account for more positive results for democrats than for republicans.

Given the current political atmosphere such tweaking of the polls probably does reflect the actual voter turnout and help to make the poll results more accurate. Probably, but not definitely. I have a feeling that many of theses polls, which already have a liberal bend to them, may have been bent toward the left much further than necessary .

If that is the case, it still does not mean that Obama is not favored in this election. He is, but I don’t think by quite as much as the polls would have us believe. I hope not anyway.

In fact “hope” is what I am really going on here. Hope and a sense that not quite everyone is convinced that Barack Obama is the great savior that liberals make him out to be. In fact I do believe that many people see Barack Obama as an unaccomplished blowhard who only has experience with running his mouth.

The hopeful sense of something not being right with the polls and that most people do not trust Obama, leads me to make a hail Mary pass and predict McCain to be the winner. This sense of hope is reached because I do not believe most people trust Obama’s experience and believe him to be sincere. I also think they do not appreciate his promise to spread the wealth through increasing the size and scope of government.

Additionally I believe that Obama has not closed the sale in these final days.

Given the undeniably negative atmosphere for republicans and the undeniable popularity of state and local democrat candidates further down the ballot, Obama should be ahead by a lot more than he actually is. Given the popularity of local democrats, Obama’s poll numbers are much lower than they should be.

So it is with more of a sixth sense than facts that leads me to predict that John McCain will win with 286 electoral votes to

This leap of faith gives McCain the most hotly contested states of Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and antlastmap6Pennsylvania. If he can actually win Pennsylvania and Virginia it would also indicate that other hotly contested battlegrounds states like Missouri and Nevada are also likely to trend towards McCain, so I also call them for him.

Is this likely? If you believe in some of the polls, no, its not. But I believe in miracles. I have made myself believe that even though McCain’s campaign sucked and never properly articulated our case, the right combination of people in the right number of states know that this election is less about personalities and more about ideologies. I believe that enough people know that the differences between Obama and McCain are wide. They understand that on the economy one moves to socialism and the other tries to strengthen our economy. That one wants to raise taxes and spread a small amount of wealth while the other wants to lower taxes and spread the opportunity to achieve greater wealth. I still believe that most Americans prefer the candidate who waves the American flag more than the candidate who wants America to wave the white flag of surrender.

If such sentiments do exist, maybe people are not voting as much for McCain or Obama as they are for the principles that they represent. If that is the case than I truly believe that most people support the American way over the old Soviet way. I believe most people believe more in John McCain’s way than Obama’s way.

All of this causes me to feel that we just might relive a “Dewey Defeats Truman-like episode in history.

ant-trudew7The problem with that thinking though, is that back in 1948 polls were only taken up till the week before the election. The data that the media was basing their projections on did not include the seven days leading up to the election. They did not capture the undecided voters who broke for Truman during the closing days of that election.

Today, polls are being taken and interpreted up to the very last minute. That makes up for the mistakes that were made when The Chicago Tribune erroneously declared that Tom Dewey beat President Harry Truman. But a boy can dream, can’t he? History does repeat itself, occasionally. So maybe, just maybe we can be experiencing a little déjà vu. Maybe the apparent tightening of the polls in these closing days are being undervalued and causing pollsters to underestimate the depth of support for John McCain’s candidacy.

My heart tells me McCain does it. Logic tells me that Obama will be President. But, like millions of Americans who are voting for Obama based on his appealing to their hearts more than their heads, on this one, I am going with my heart and believing that Senator John McCain will win and spare our nation from a costly education in socialism.

Photobucket

punchline-politics1

Twas the Night Before Elections . . .

Twas the night before elections
And all through the town
Tempers were flaring
Emotions all up and down!

I, in my bathrobe
With a cat in my lap
Had cut off the TV
Tired of political crap.

When all of a sudden
There arose such a noise
I peered out of my window
Saw Obama and his boys

They had come for my wallet*
They wanted my pay*
To give to the others*
Who had not worked a day!*

He snatched up my money
And quick as a wink
Jumped back on his bandwagon
As I gagged from the stink

He then rallied his henchmen
Who were pulling his cart
I could tell they were out
To tear my country apart!

On Fannie, on Freddie,
On Biden and Ayers!
On Acorn, On Pelosi’
He screamed at the pairs!

They took off for his cause
And as he flew out of sight
I heard him laugh at the nation
Who wouldn’t stand up and fight!

So I leave you to think
On this one final note-
IF YOU DONT WANT SOCIALISM
GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!

Photobucket

Photobucket

 

 

2 Comments

Filed under politics

LAUTENBERG’S GOTTA GO! DICK ZIMMER FOR U.S. SENATE

New Jersey Candidate For U.S. Senate, Dick Zimmer

New Jersey Candidate For U.S. Senate, Dick Zimmer

New Jersey is a state in crisis. A manmade crisis that has created a state that is unaffordable and a government that is inconsequential. For more than 5 years little has come out of its state capital to make much of a difference in the lives of its approximately 8,725,000 people. Yet from its lush green, rolling hills and mountainous peeks in its northwestern corner to its Victorian Painted Ladies along Cape May on its southern seaside corner, New Jerseyans are battered, burdened and brushed aside by a state legislature that is as effective as a sail boat without a sail. From it’s northern mountains to it’s southern shores and all the suburban sprawl in between, New Jersey’s citizens suffer. While most of the nation is realizing a national economic pinch, New Jerseyans are trying to cope with an economic punch.

Rising prices across the nation only compound the rising cost of living in New Jersey. Costs that have been increasing every month since the states liberal led assembly and senate went to work with disgraced former Governor Jim McGreevey and than his successor, former Goldman Sachs financial genius, Governor Jon Corzine. It is a liberal menage-a-tois that has done nothing with our state problems accept make them more expensive.

Ever since Corzine took office, all we have seen in New Jersey are new proposed taxes and rate hikes. Our Governor has proposed everything from ridiculously high, progressive, toll increases on our critical roads, to creating new tolls on roads that have not had a one before. When he first came into office he invented a whole new slew of taxes. One even took advantage of the state’s motto by implementing a tax on any landscaping or planting of shrubbery and flowers. Now that’s one way to keep the garden in “the Garden State”, isn’t it?

Despite the despair of its citizens, state government in New Jersey simply adds to the high cost of living in the state. They have done little to curb the excesses of it’s own governance or of public employee and teachers unions who hold us hostage to their whims, little to improve public transportation, public safety, education, or any quality of life issues that affect us. What they have done is cost us a lot more for a lot less and created one of, if not the most, unfriendly business environments in the nation.

But even though the state of the state is in the midst of malaise, you would never know that there was an election in New Jersey. Its liberal loving legions are undoubtedly voting for Barack Obama to become our next President.  It is so definite that neither Obama or McCain have wasted anytime or money in the state since they got their party’s nominations.  But even putting the presidential election aside, you would think that there would be some acknowledgment of the fact that we have an election for the United States Senate going on here. Yet, you would never know it.

Even though it is an election for federal, not state office, you would think the people of New Jersey might have an ounce of interest in trying to better the conditions of our state by electing someone who’s representation of us in Washington, DC could help to benefit us here in New Jersey. But such is not the case.

Instead the four term incumbent Senator Frank Lautenberg is going to be sworn in to a fifth term in office as one of the two very best New Jerseyans to represent us in Washington, DC.  It would actually be a laughable arrangement if it wasn’t so pathetically sad.

For twenty-four years Mr. Lautenberg has represented New Jersey in the federal government by promoting his own self interests. He has not made one iota of difference for the state or the nation since his first term in office. 

Over two decades ago Senator Lautenberg spearheaded efforts to eliminate smoking on airplanes. During that same first term he was instrumental in effectively raising the legal age for drinking from 18 years of age to 21, throughout the nation. Lautenberg fought hard for the passage of his legislation that linked federal funding to states for their roads to their raising the legal drinking age.   No state wanted to lose out on the federal money available to maintain and build their roads. So this resulted in a uniform legal drinking age throughout the nation and prevented teens from driving across state lines so that they could legally drink in one state and then get behind the wheel to drive back to their home state while intoxicated.  The bill may have actually saved lives.  It was a responsible and, at the time, a creative measure.

But since that first time in office, Frank Lautenberg has produced nothing. His name has joined many others on various liberal pieces of legislation but the extent of his efforts stopped after allowing a staffer to put his name on the bill.

Lautenberg has not been in the forefront of any legislative initiatives or in the lead in opposition to any legislation. Frank Lautenberg has provided no solutions to our nations problems.  For display he has simply offered a press release or sound bite in regards to issues, but little, very little, more than that.

On taxes Frank Lautenberg has never opposed an increase that has been proposed. On the budget, the only thing he has endorsed cutting is spending on our national defenses.  He has never once moved to significantly reduce government spending or it’s size.

His spending habits are perhaps best exemplified by his staff.  It is one of the three highest paid staffs in the entire US Senate.  This is odd when you realize that he is one of the least active members of the senate.  Yet his staff is occupied by countless consultants and a number of state directors.  Even though New Jersey is a relatively small state, Mr. Lautenberg requires three state directors, including a number of South Jersey directors. These are obviously patronage positions made available to help consolidate Lautenberg’s power.  South Jersey is where his greatest challenges to re-election come from.  It is where Congressman Bob Andrew comes from and where he challenged Lautenberg for the nomination from.

Even though New Jersey ranks last among all states in the amount of return on the dollar we recieve from Washington, Frank’s staff is one of the highest paid in the federal government and for what?  Two press releases a week and his seal of approval for a far left agenda?

The fact is that until this election rolled around one had to take pause and try to recall if Frank Lautenberg was still in the U.S. Senate.  The man was scarce and his accomplishment are even more scarce.  Now that he is running for re-election he has tried to demonstrate himself as a doer.  He most recently proclaimed great pride in what one ad described as his forcing homeland security money to be allocated by need rather than politics.  It might be a powerful issue if it were true.  First of all, Lautenberg, as well as his senate cohort Bob Menendez, have brought back little money from Washington to New Jersey.  In the case of homeland security money, what the state did receive was being allocated by a liberal led state legislature and governor who only gave the money to districts that were represented by Democrats.  This pattern finally and only changed after Republican lawmakers took the issue to court.  Then and only then was the allocation of homeland security dollars doled out based upon the security needs it was meant for.

The truth is that Frank has little to run on.  It is hard to have to go back more than two decades in order to demonstrate ones effectiveness.

Not that it matters. This is New Jersey. Here. where liberals rule, two plus two does not equal four. In fact, here in New Jersey, just adding two plus two together costs you 5 in new taxes and then you must subtract the total of the equation and give that amount to the union whos leader slept with Governor Corzine and negotiated contracts behind closed doors.

So common sense is not something that you find a large quantity of New Jersey.  It is something that we have to import from neighboring states and in the Northeast it is hard to find.  But it explains why Lautenberg is being rewarded with a fifth term in office.  That and the fact that the New Jersey Republican party is so unorganized and out of touch with the ability to tap into the political despair that we are in, all accounts for why one would not know that there was election for the US Senate in Jersey.

Lautenberg is the wealthy owner of ADP, the paycheck service that rakes in millions for producing the checks that many American’s receive for their livings.  So he has oodles of dough and even has the financial backing of the Democratic National Committee and the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee.

The Republican nominee does not have Frank’s wealth, nor does he have the great deal of money coming to him from the RNC or Senate Republican Campaign Committees. They’re tapped out.

On top of that Frank Lautenberg even refuses to debate the issues and will not go face to face with his opponent.

All of this makes the fact that there is a race for the United States Senate in New Jersey, a well kept secret, much like Frank Lautenberg’s accomplishments.

But there is a race and it’s one that could truly help to turn the tide of inaction and lack of solutions or innovation in this state. It could come from Dick Zimmer.

Dick Zimmer is a former 3 term Republican congressman.  While in office Congressman Zimmer brought about more productive measures in just one of his two year terms than any of Frank Lautenberg’s four, six year terms in office.

While in office Congressman Zimmer fought wasteful government spending.  When it came to his own staff budget, unlike Frank Lautenberg who uses every dime given to him to have one of the highest paid federal staffs in government, Zimmer returned money that his staff budget didn’t require, to the federal government.  He even tried to pass legislation that required unused portions of staff budgets to be returned to the federal government and applied to deficit reduction.

As a congressman, Dick Zimmer’s fiscal conservatism and legislative initiatives earned him the title of “Taxpayer Hero” by Citizens Against Government Waste each year he was in office.

Zimmer’s zealotry did not stop with economic issues though.  He proved himself to be a man of great social conscience and activism.  When a toddler in New Jersey was brutally assaulted and murdered by a convicted sex offender who recently moved into the girls neighborhood, Dick Zimmer made government work for the people and he wrote and fought for passage of the federal legislation known as Megan’s Law which mandated that parents be notified when a convicted sex offender moves into their neighborhood.

Zimmer was also responsible for no frills laws which eliminated luxuries in federal prisons for criminals who were there to be punished instead of comforted.

He did this while also never allowing the United States to roll over in the face of international opposition or belligerent enemies.  Zimmer knows that the best America is a strong America, not just militarily but economically as well as educationally.

These are but a few examples of Dick Zimmer’s active participation in government. They exemplify his ability to implement improvements into our lives through a government that he helps to make work for us, not be a burden on us.

Dick Zimmer knows that the purpose of holding elected office is not for the title or ability to hand out patronage to consolidate power.  He knows that it is an opportunity to empower the people he represents and a chance to improve lives through legislative action as opposed to putting out press release announcing that he put his name on someone’s legislation.

Frank Lautenberg on the other hand has spent about two decades proving that he knows how to make government work for him.  It finances his patronage mill and pays him well to do nothing more than repeat the words of some of his more active and innovative liberal buddies in the Senate.

Perhaps the most accurate description of Frank Lautenberg and his long, lackluster waste of time in the Senate is best exemplified by the Frank R. Lautenberg Rail Station in Secaucus, New Jersey.  Built at a cost of more than 600 million dollars the transportation committee that Lautenberg chaired invested our tax dollars in it because of the dire need to expand and improve public transportation in New Jersey.  Here in New Jersey one must drive everywhere.  You must even drive long distances to catch a train to somewhere.  So this terminal was built in Northern New Jersey where there is a need to help increase public transportation to and from neighboring New York City.

The Empty, 600 Million Dollar, Frank R. Lautemberg Train Terminal In Secaucus

The More Than $600 Million Dollar, Empty, Frank R. Lautenberg Rail Terminal in Secaucus

Well the genius of the transportation committee, under Lautenberg’s leadership, allocated the money and after years of construction it was finally finished.  It’s a beautifully cavernous, multi leveled facility and it was humbly named after the man who designated the money for it…..Frank R. Lautenberg. Well years later it still stands but it does so empty.  With no parking made available anywhere near the facility, it is impossible for commuters to access it and so except for the occasional tourist in world famous Secaucus, New Jersey, no one uses it.

So here we have a useless, hollow monument to Senator Lautenberg that cost a lot but does little.  It’s just like it’s namesake.  Senator Lautenberg is a useless living fossil who costs taxpayers a lot but does little for them.

It’s time to retire Senator Lautenberg.  It was time for his retirement 8 years ago when he did retire only to be brought back to run for the senate when Senator Bob Toricelli was found guilty of accepting gifts and other bribes.  When it became obvious that he was not going to win re-election, state democrat leaders illegally took Torricelli off the ballot and replaced his name with Lautenberg’s.

Let’s face it folks, we have gotten all that we can we out of Lautenberg.  He was devoid of ideas and enthusiasm after his first term more than 18 years ago.  Since than we have been waiting for him to do something worth anyone’s while.  How many more terms in office does he need to provide us with something meaningful?

When all of New Jersey’s major daily newspapers, liberally biased newspapers, from the Asbury Park Press to the Philadelphia Inquirer and the Gloucester County Times to the Courier Post have endorsed Dick Zimmer, a Republican, you know that there is something wrong and that something is Frank Lautenberg.

With all the problems that are going unaddressed or worsening here in New Jersey, it is time that we shake things up.  It’s time for some new thinking and representation in Washington that can help make the federal government work better for us than our state government does. 

It’s time for Dick Zimmer.

So this Tuesday, November 4, 2008, regardless of who you cast your presidential vote for, be sure to vote for New Jersey and cast your ballot for Dick Zimmer for US Senate.

Even if his time hasn’t come, we know for sure that Frank Lautenberg’s time has gone.

Photobucket

Presidential Summit

There was a presidential summit and the presidents of the world were asked to propose topics to discuss about.


The president of the United States said, “I think we’d see about how to stop wars.” Everybody applauded.

The president of Somalia said, “I think we’d see about how to stop hunger.” Everybody applauded.

The president of Costa Rica stood up and said, “I think…” Everybody applauded.

Photobucket

Photobucket 

 

 

 

1 Comment

Filed under politics

ELECTION NIGHT SCHEDULE AND PREDICTIONS

Election night can and will be very interesting but if you have yourself the right tools it could be a short one.  Certain state races could be quite telling and barring any voter machine falures or an obvious voter scandal that calls for the impounding of ballots, if some of those states go one way or the other, you couid know who the next President will be buy as early as 8:00 pm.  Maybe even earlier.
 
But to reach that conclusion you need the right tools.  So here it is, your own little election night guide.
It’s kind of like a racing slip for the Kentucky Derby of elections. 

Below you will find the scheduled poll closing times for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.  You will also find the play by play for one election night scenario.

 
7PM Eastern
Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
 
At 7:00 pm the first polls close In Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. If the results are not particularly close, projections could be made within minutes. Vermont will be a landslide and it will be called for Senator Barack Obama. Kentucky, South Carolina and Georgia will also have pluralities large enough s to safely call them,  but they will be for Senator John McCain.  These results may come in relatively quickly, probably by 7:10 to 7:20 PM.

Virginia is also, usually, called rather quickly but I suspect that there will not be a rapid rush to call Virginia for Obama or McCain. With polls claiming that the Virginia race is in the bag for Barack Obama by as much as 10% and others having the race as close as 2% combined with the high voter turnout, calling this one quickly may be tough.. Ultimately though, Virginia is likely going blue. If it does, McCain is in trouble. By losing Virginia, Senator McCain will need to make up for the loss of their 11 electoral votes and he will have to do so within a map that offers him few opportunities. It will not be impossible to make them up but difficult. However, Indiana closes it’s polls at this time and if Indiana goes to Barack Obama, especially with Virginia going the same way, than you can start hiding your money under the mattresses because you can safely say that President Obama will be living in the White House

An average of all polls in Indiana give Barrack Obama an edge over McCain by less than half of 1 percent but if there is any state that is likely to lean in McCain’s direction it is Indiana so if McCain does get it, the first round of poll closings should result with John McCain receiving 42 electoral college votes to Obama’s 16.                                      

7:30PM Eastern
Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina

The biggest player in this second round, Ohio, will probably be the most conclusive of all. If Senator McCain losses their 20 electoral votes, the possibility to win any combinations that reaches the magic number of 270 electoral votes is highly unlikely. To do so he would need Pennsylvania, Missouri, Florida, Colorado, Indiana as well as two other state that may have already been called for Obama, Virginia and North Carolina.  That would leave Obama with only 265 to McCain’s 273. This highly doubtful.
West Virginia is unquestionably in McCain’s column and despite the current polls of these states, in this second set of closings, I expect McCain to win Ohio in and North Carolina.   Conventional wisdom and history would seem to make this very possible if not likely. So we give them to him. That brings the total count for John McCain to 82 electors to Obama’s 16.


8:00PM Eastern

Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

Now 8:00 pm arrives. If McCain received any of the necessary combinations needed up to this point, here too, is a do or die situation for John McCain. It also produces one of the most lucrative results of all poll closing times. 171 electoral votes are up for grabs at this point and it includes some of the south which is strong territory for McCain. The problem is that much of Obama’s true blue northeastern states also turn out their results at 8 o‘clock. The results for the Obama rich megalopolis from Massachusetts in the Northeast to DC in the Mid Atlantic begins to pour out for him here. It also includes the crucial states of Pennsylvania and Missouri. Most important of all for McCain will be the sunshine state of Florida.  We can safely say that of the states in this 8:00 pm round of poll closings, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee will break for McCain. That gives him 33 more electors bringing him up to 115.

Obama will definitely take Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Washington, DC and his home state of Illinois. That’s a total of 84 bringing Obama up to 95votes in the electoral college.

That leaves us with the battleground states of Missouri and two of the biggest cliff hangers in this 8:00 pm closing time. They are some of the biggest prizes in the electoral sweepstakes , Pennsylvania and Florida.

Parts of Florida close ealier than 8:00 pm.  But by 8 pm, the panhandle, which is in a different time zone form the rest of the state,  makes the results in Florida official.  In the 2000 election, the pro-Gore media ignored this fact and called the election for Gore before these results were in.  I do not expect them to make the same error this time.

With an average of polls showing McCain trailing in Florida by 2.2 %, he can pull it off. If he does, it gives him a total of 142 electoral votes and he will still be in the race for at least another half hour and the next rounds of results.

With the polls almost as close in Missouri as they are in Florida, I will put Missouri in Mac’s column too. Now he is up to 153.

The remaining state in this group, Pennsylvania, is becoming interesting.

Obama’s reference to the citizens of the western part of the state “bitterly clinging to their guns and religion” along with their own Congressman John Murtha first calling them racists and than apologizing by calling them rednecks, Pennsylvania could be in play and I think it just might be the surprise of the night.  I think McCain will win it by a whisper.   If the polls in Pennsylvania are as inaccurate as I believe, and it does go McCain’s way, he will now have 174 electoral votes.

I do regret that this is looking unlikely.  McCain most likely will not be able to pull it off. Currently Mac is in back by as much as 11% here. That would give Obama 116 electoral votes and would also likely seal his winning the 2008 election for President of the United States.

If the scenario goes the way I have suggested, so far, and McCain can pull off Pennsylvania,  Senator McCain is still viable when we get to 8:30 pm and the next polls close.

8:30PM

Arkansas

By the time many of the 8:00 pm results are being tabulated and projections are being made in other states, parts of Arkansa start reporting results.  Arkansas, with it’s 6 electoral votes closes it’s polls at 8:30 pm. By 9:00 pm all voting is completed in Arkansas and the results should be conclusive enough to call it for McCain. That would bring the Republican nominee up to 180 electors.

9:00PM Eastern

Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

At 9:00 pm., the polls close in 14 more states. It concludes the Northeast where Obama wins New York and Rhode Isalnd bringing Obama up to 130 electoral votes, just 50 less than McCain. But McCain will be able to safely claim victories in the results from states outside of the Northeast. Such as his home state of Arizona.  Others include South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Louisiana, Kansas and the second largest prize, Texas. That will bring John McCain up to 250.

In addition to New York and Rhode Island, Senator Obama should easily claim 42 more electoral votes from the combined total of victories in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Barack Obama will now have 172 electoral votes in his column.

That leaves Colorado. Obama is ahead here but it is not a insurmountable lead for John McCain to overcome. However, trends would indicate to me that Obama will take Colorado and after the 9:00 pm results have been projected it will be Barack Obama 181electoral votes to John McCain’s 250.

 

10:00PM Eastern

Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

At 10:00 pm 4 more state polls close and throw their combined 20 electoral votes into the ring. Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah should all be good states for McCain but Obama’s has a lead in Iowa that will not be overtaken and so Obama will get their 7 electors. McCain should take Montana and will take the state that consistently gives Republicans some of the widest margins of victory in all elections, Utah. Now it’s 258 Mccain to 188 for Obama.

Yet again another crucial state for McCain will be Nevada. If he manages to win Virginia earlier in the evening and still wins Ohio and Missouri the final result would be 269 to 269. Obama would still win any such tie in the electoral college by a majority of states controlled by democratic congressional delegations but if McCain happened to change New Hampshire’s direction and won the granite state, he would be the next President.
Fact is that McCain is behind Obama by an average of 3.3 % in Nevada.   Even though that is a smaller margin than in other states, Obama will probably pull Nevada off. His ground game and union support from hotel workers and gambling interests in Las Vegas make him tough to beat here. So now it’s Obama’s 193 to McCain’s 258. If McCain did happen to win Nevada it still wont matter. The Obama blue tide to come will inevitably doom McCain to his last campaign for President.

                                                                           

11:00PM Eastern
California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington

By 11:00 pm. Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington State and the largest electoral prize, California, all close their poll.
McCain will undoubtedly take Idaho and North Dakota which would bring his electoral vote count to 265. Obama is going to win Hawaii, Oregon and the state of Washington overwhelmingly, which brings him up to 215 votes.

Then California’s whopping 55 electoral votes will be handed over to Senator Barack Obama like the Oscar being awarded to the years best actor at the Academy Awards ceremony. The Keith Olbermanns, Chris Matthews, Tom Brokaws and other liberal loving loons will be able to rejoice with certainty because Barack Obama will have a total of 270 electoral votes. That would be just the right number needed to win .

                                                                             

1:00AM Eastern – Alaska

It won’t be over though. With iceberg like speed, Alaska will make it official at 1:00 am and cast all three of their electoral votes for John McCain and their popular Governor, Sarah Palin. That would give the McCain-Palin ticket a total of 268 electoral votes or 2 short of what he would have needed to win.

Of course there are 4 different possible scenarios that could create a victory for John McCain.   Some include winning Pennsylvania while also taking Nevada while still losing in Virginia.  Other scenarios don’t allow McCain to prevail but are more interesting. One actually is a tie in the electoral college with a combination of state wins for McCain that includes New Hampshire.  All are unlikely.  It is even unlikely that McCain will win Pennsylvania.  
 
The bottom line though is, that if current polls are correct,  McCain will probably lose not only Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina but Florida as well as Pennsylvania and Missouri. 

Either way one should be able to tell who won by between 8:00 pm and 8:30 pm.  It could be even earlier than that.  If when the polls close at 7:00 pm, Indiana has Obama winning their electoral college votes, than you can rest assured that McCain probably can’t pull out victories in some of the other states that he needs and are less friendly to his candidacy than Indiana is.

 
If after 7:30 pm,North Carolina bolted it’s previous red hue and went blue for Obama, even if McCain won in Indiana, that could prove to be fatal.  If North Carolina votes for Obama it will most likely precludes Senator John McCain from being able to achieve the minimal number of 270 electoral required to win the election. 
Polls have been known to be wrong and there is still a chance for McCain to win. Obama has not locked up states like Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina or even Colorado and Virginia.  New Hampshire could alos start changing directions as undecided voters begin to break in his direction. 

In any event I am confident in this fact.  Obama will win the popular vote  He will do so even if he losses the election in the electoral college.  I make this claim because Obama will produce the highest voter turnout we have ever seen in our urban centers, the areas where the highest concentration of voters are.

Obama will produce victories in heavily populated states like New York and California, Michigan and even in Florida.  Barack Obama will win with exorbitant pluralities, especially in cities.  Because of those high concentration of voters he will win some states with those highly populated, big cities by a million or more votes.  Whereas McCain will win in smaller states and by smaller margins.  Margins more like tens or hundreds of thousands as opposed to millions.

  
The margin of victories will not matter as much as the electoral college vote.  So if McCain can win some key states like Missouri, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, even by a small margin, it won’t matter how many millions Obama beats McCain by in places like New York, Illinois or California and you can rest assured that Obama will beat him big time in those places.
  
I actually fear the reaction that we might encounter from the electorate if McCain wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote to Obama.  It is a reaction that will probably effect us more than the presidenciy of either McCain or Obama.
  
 Below Are Some Of The Likely Scenarios
This map depicts the results articulated in the above account

This map depicts the results articulated in the above account

A very possible mccain victory scenario

A very possible mccain victory scenario

A less likely but still possible McCain victory scenario

A less likely but still possible McCain victory scenario

The unlikely but very possible tied election result

The unlikely but very possible tied election result

 

One of the more likely Obama victory maps

One of the more likely Obama victory maps

The most of the most likely Obama victory results

Another Obama possible win scenario

Photobucket

 

Republicans Democrats

The difference between Republicans & Democrats

 A Republican and a Democrat were walking down the street when they came to a homeless person.

The republican gave the homeless person his business card and told him come to his business for a job. He then took twenty dollars out of his pocket and gave it to the homeless person.

The Democrat was very impressed, and when they came to another homeless person, He decided to help. He walked over to the homeless person and gave him directions to the welfare office. He then reached into the Republicans pocket and gave him fifty dollars.

Photobucket

Photobucket

3 Comments

Filed under politics