A new Quinnipiac Poll shows that 52% of New Jersey voters disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing and 43% approve of his job performance. It is his lowest approval rating in the Garden State yet. A breakdown of the polls shows that Democrats approve of his job performance 77% to 19% percent. Disapproval is 88% – 10% among Republicans, and the most important and lethal number is his 60% – 34% disapproval rating among independent voters.
Quinnipiac also notes that there is a large gender gap as women have a 50% to 45% approval rating of the Presidents job performance, while men disapprove 60% to 36%.
Still though, the poll finds that voters are split 47% to 48% on whether President Obama deserves reelection.
However; one should take note of the polling history pertaining to New Jersey’s 2009 gubernatorial election.
At this same point in that election, almost a year before it took place, a similar Quinnipiac Poll found that New Jersey voters disapproved of Governor Jon Corzine’s job performance by 51% to 40%. It was his fourth negative score that year. Democrats approved of the Governor 60% to 31, while Republicans disapproved 75% to 19%, and independent voters gave him a thumbs down by 52% – 38%.
Those numbers are better than President Obama’s number are and Jon Corzine went on to be soundly defeated by Chris Christie.
The only difference is that President Obama’s job approval among Democrats is higher than Jon Corzine’s approval was at this same point in his election. That shows that New Jersey Democrats are still more enthusiastic about Obama than they were of Corzine. But aside form that, President Obama’s disapproval among New Jersey Republicans, and more importantly, New Jersey Independent voters, is substantially higher than Corzine’s were.
All of this simply confirms that at the moment, President Obama is indeed in trouble.
These poll numbers come from a very blue state that is in the bluest region of the nation for…….. the Northeast. If the majority of voters in a state like New Jersey disapprove of the job that the President is doing, than you can rest assured that similar sentiments exist throughout the region. So it only follows that President Obama will have to actually spend time and money campaigning in state’s like, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and even New York. That will give the President less time and resources to dedicate to winning battleground, or swing states, like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.
The last time a Republican presidential candidate won New Jersey was in 1988, when George H. W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis.
With 14 electoral votes, if New Jersey does not soon be safely in President Obama’s column, it will dramatically increase the number of electoral college equations needed for Republicans to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Following conventional wisdom, giving Democrats and Republicans the state’s they traditionally win and leaving states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and several others undecided, if New Jersey is a tossup, President Obama will have 15 different ways to reach a winning combination of electoral votes. Republicans would have 45 winning combinations available to them. And for those who really like suspense, there would be 7 scenarios whereby there could be a tie in the electoral college.