Tag Archives: Martha Coakley

New York’s 9th Congressional District Special Election Tells Us Much Going in to 2012

Bookmark and Share   Today, some of the last waves of the 2010 midterm elections are about to sweep ashore the American political landscape. And much like the original tidal wave of victory that the G.O.P. rode to some of the largest gains of congressional seats in history, this last wave is expected to bring surprises with yet another Republican gain.

In Nevada voters in the second district will be filling the vacancy created by Joe Heller’s appointment to the U.S. Senate following Senator John Ensign’s May resignation. In that special election Republican Mark Amodei looks to be a slam dunk in what was once considered a tight race for Republicans to retain the seat, but is now considered an impossibility for Democrats to pick up.

But the real story of the day is shaping up to be the special election in New York’s 9th congressional district. There, residents of a district which is comprised of portions of Brooklyn and Queens will be electing a successor to disgraced liberal Anthony Weiner who resigned after lying about sending sexually explicit photo’s of himself over the internet. The district has been held by Democrats for nearly a century and it has not even been considered competitive at any point in the last forty years.

Yet while Republicans have not exactly had great success in special elections to fill vacant congressional seats in New York state, NY-9 seems ready to make up for that.

Over the past two years, special congressional elections that the G.O.P. should have won with relative ease, were lost to Democrats due to poorly managed campaigns and a series of assorted Party related political anomalies and blunders. In May, New York’s Upstate 26th Congressional District should have gone Republican but instead was won by Democrat, Kathy Hochul.

In 2009, Republicans lost another Upstate New York congressional seat that they should have retained.

After nominating a disastrous candidate in liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava and seeing a strong Conservative Party candidate take to the field, Democrat Bill Owen won a seat that had been in Republicans for over 100 years.

But today’s special in NY-9 is a case that is quite different. This election is being fought not in the Republican friendly upper portion of the vast Empire State, it is being fought in the Democrat stronghold of two of New York City boroughs.

The ninth spans sections of Brooklyn and Queens and is a middle and lower middle class, blue collar district heavily comprised of Jewish and Italian-American voters as well as union members. It is a district that is ideally suited for liberal candidates, like the man who previously held the seat……Anthony Weiner. Yet despite its Democrat friendly makeup, NY-9 is in the midst of casting what can only be described as a protest vote that is about to elect businessman Bob Turner over long serving liberal Assemblyman David Weprin.

While Turner’s victory is not a sure thing, polls and the prevailing winds indicate that he is a likely winner.

According to the most recent Public Policy Polling survey the race stands as follows:

  • Bob Turner (R) 47%
  • David Weprin (D) 41%
  • Christopher Hoeppner (S) 4%
  • Undecided 7%

But the story here is not merely that a Republican is about to take a seat away from Democrats that hasn’t been in G.O.P. since the 1920’s, but rather that traditional Democrat constituencies are showing their dissatisfaction with President Obama and are sending a protest vote. That story is explained by a deeper look at the most recent PPP poll of the 9th district. Republican Bob Turner has the support of as much as 29% of the Democrat vote, while Democrat David Weprin has only a 58% share. Right there you can see that things are out of whack. Democrats in New York City typically back their Party nominee in numbers approaching 80% or more.

When it comes to Republicans,Bob Turner is receiving 83% of the Republican vote and a mere 10% support Weprin.

But some of the most startling and important stats come from the districts heavy Jewish population and those voters who consider themselves to be independent.

Those results are as follows:

Among Jewish Voters

  • Bob Turner (R) 56%
  • David Weprin (D) 39%
  • Christopher Hoeppner (S) 2%
  • Undecided 4%

Among Independents

  • Bob Turner (R) 58%
  • David Weprin (D) 26%
  • Christopher Hoeppner (S) 7%
  • Undecided 10%

But perhaps the biggest story of all here is that this election is really not between Turner and Weprin at all. As it turns out the vote is between two sentiments,………………. are you happy with the way things are going a dn our President’s leadership, or are you dissatisfied by President Obama and his liberal policies?

The answer to that question is that voters are pissed at the President. And Democrat politicos know it. That is one reason why President Obama’s name is hardly mentioned by the Democrat candidates campaign but it is often brought by Republicans who are labeling Weprin as a rubberstamp for Obama’s failed policies. The reasons for that are made quite clear with the following additional Public Policy Polling data from the same poll that shows Turner ahead of Weprin.

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

  • Approve 31%
  • Disapprove 56%

Among Men

  • Approve 27%
  • Disapprove 63%

Among Women

  • Approve 35%
  • Disapprove 49%

Among Jewish Voters

  • Approve 26%
  • Disapprove 62%

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s leadership on Israel?

  • Approve 30%
  • Disapprove 54%

Among Democrats

  • Approve 42%
  • Disapprove 40%

Among Republicans

  • Approve 13%
  • Disapprove 78%

Among Independents

  • Approve 13%
  • Disapprove 66%

Among Jewish Voters

  • Approve 22%
  • Disapprove 68%

How important was the issue of Israel in deciding who to vote for Congress: very important, somewhat important, or not all that important?

  • Very important 37%
  • Somewhat important 32%
  • Not all that important 29%
  • Among Jewish Voters
  • Very important 58%
  • Somewhat important 30%
  • Not all that important 11%

To make matters worse, in 2008 President Obama won the 9th C.D. with 55% of the vote to John McCain’s 44% but when asked about the 2012 presidential election, President Obama is obviously in trouble.

2012 Presidential Election

  • Mitt Romney 46%
  • Barack Obama 42%
  • Barack Obama 44%
  • Rick Perry 43%

Among Jewish Voters

  • Mitt Romney 52%
  • Barack Obama 38%
  • Rick Perry 47%
  • Barack Obama 43%

The voters of New York’s 9th Congressional District have not suddenly changed ideologies and gone from believing that government doesn’t do enough to believing that it does too much. They remain largely supportive of Democrat policies but the sentiment among voters here is that President Obama isn’t working and his policies are failing us. As such, they are taking their frustrations out on David Weprin. That is just one of the reasons why Democrats have not brought President Obama into this district. Apparently, they have learned from the 2010 special election to replace Ted Kennedy in the U.S. Senate. In that race President Obama was brought in to energize the base and motivate independent Massachusetts voters to turn out and vote for liberal Martha Coakley. As it turned out, they instead stayed home while the rest of angry electorate came out to support Republican Scott Brown and reject Barack Obama.

Now as we head into the 2012 election, NY-9 is showing us that if anything, that sentiment which swept Scott Brown into office has not changed and may have in fact built even more momentum.

Republican Bob Turner can still lose this race. Special elections usually come down to the Get Out the Vote operation and in that area, Weprin and Democrats have that aspect of the election wrapped up. With quite robust Democrat organization abilities as compared to the meager Republican organization in new York City, combined with the assistance of organized efforts by unions, the Weprin campaign can out organize the Turner campaign. But at the same time anger is a strong motivational tool and the voters of the 9thare angry at President Obama. That could make it so that there are very few voters for Democrat GOTV efforts to make sure go to the polls.

Bookmark and Share

1 Comment

Filed under politics

Sean Bielat vs. Barney Frank: A Race Between Right & Wrong

Bookmark and Share    Brewing in Massachusetts is a battle of symbolically epic proportions. In one corner sit’s the energetic Sean Bielart. In the other corner sit’s the slovenly Barney Frank. Perhaps here in the 4th Congressional District of Massachusetts, lies a election contest that epitomizes the differences between Democrats and Republicans more so than any other single race in America.

Bielat and Frank are diametrically opposed on just about every major issue that confronts America today. But in many ways, the Bielat-Frank battle is more than just a race between the left and the right. It is a race between right and wrong.

On the right side is a candidate who believes in a limited government that practices fiscal responsibility, sustainable job growth, states rights, reasonable debate and rational discussion. On the wrong side sit’s a candidate that practices, endorses and promotes endless and reckless spending, the growth of unsustainable government jobs, federal intrusion and obnoxious discourse that includes personal arrogance and sarcastic name calling.

Click Here to Visit Sean Bielat’s Website

In the right is Major Sean Bielat, a first time candidate, private businessman and Marine who believes in focusing on economic growth and fiscal responsibility, peace through strength and in a return to Constitutional values and citizen-legislators.

In the wrong is 15 term, entrenched Congressman Barney Frank, a career politician who went from the state legislature to the House of Representatives where he has spent nearly three decades recklessly spending our nation into oblivion, ignoring the dangers of his own legislation and legislative leadership, cutting backroom deals, belittling his constituents and colleagues with name calling, and trying to avoid the public scrutiny of the political scandals that he has been at the center of.

Now it can admittedly be argued whether or not government spending is right or wrong, or whether any position on any specific issue is right or wrong or liberal or conservative. But the assertion that Maj. Bielat is right and Congressman Frank is wrong, is based on much more than ideology. It is based on character, the Constitution and even experience.

While Rep. Frank has experience in only elected office, Maj. Bielat has experience in public service through the military and as Chairman of the NATO Industrial Armaments Group, a team that he led in studying the potential for use of advanced reconnaissance technology in urban warfare. Bielat has experience as a management consultant and as a program manager for iRobot Corporation where he led a $100 million, 100 person business that provides life-saving defense robots used to destroy roadside bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan. Maj. Bielat also has experience as a businessman and independent consultant who has helped clients and companies build market strategies that increase sales, production, and job growth.

While Barney Frank has well over 35 years of experience in government, Sean Bielat has decades of experience in the real world, the world that is effected by actions government takes and the decisions that aloof, Washington insiders and political powerbrokers like Frank make.

But right and wrong in Massachusetts’ 4th C.D. election is not solely based on experience, even though for many Bielat’s real life experience is much more refreshing than Frank’s experience as a Beltway liberal and Washington insider. Right and wrong here is also determined by the character of the men in question and the respect they show to the positions they hold and the people they serve.

In his service, Maj. Bielat has an unblemished record of serving the public in the Marines, honorably. And in the private sector, he has respectfully worked with and for the clients that he served.

Congressman Bawny Fwank

For his part, Congressman Frank has infamously responded to his constituents and colleagues with name calling and a  flippant air of arrogance which reflects his delusional sense of superiority over those who elect him and those who he serves with. And beyond his lack of respect for the people, is an even greater demonstration of arrogance and a mentality that exhibits Frank’s knack for believing that he is above the law and need not live by the laws he has a hand in establishing.

During his three decades as a Beltway insider, Frank has admitted to having paid Stephen L. Gobie, a male prostitute, for sex and subsequently hiring Gobie as his personal assistant, all while Gobie ran a prostitution ring out of Frank’s D.C. townhouse.

There were other legal troubles such as a brush with the House banking scandal in the early 90’s and the most recent ethical breach to have been discovered was one that involved his conflict of interest with his position as Chairman of the House Banking Committee and his long-term romantic relationship with Herb Moses, a Director with Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae happens to be under the jurisdiction of the banking committee and as Barney Frank’s boyfriend was pushing to have the federal government relax lending restrictions for unqualified recipients, Congressman Frank was rejecting calls to investigate the practices of Fannie Mae and to tighten lending restrictions.

Since then, it has become painfully obvious that the lack of action regarding just how far Fannie Mae could go in lending money to unqualified homebuyers, helped put Fannie Mae at the epicenter of the financial meltdown that has thrown the U.S. economy into disarray.

It doesn’t take a genius to see that by having as his boyfriend, a top exec at a firm that stands to gain from the laws that you are in the forefront of, is a conflict of interest. But few conflicts of interest result in the downfall of a world economy.

Barney Frank’s refusal to take appropriate action on the practices of Fannie Mae, something which Republicans warned of the need for in 2006, makes Frank one of the few people directly responsible for the banking crisis that tightened up the flow of money and resulted in one of the most sluggish economies in decades.

These are just some of the reasons why the race for Congress in Massachusetts 4th C.D. has become a race between right wrong and more than one between left and right.

Sean Bielat is in every way, shape and form the antithesis of Barney Frank.

While Frank spends, Bielat wants to save. While Frank talks down to voters, Bielat talks with voters and while Bielat understands the need to abide by the law, Frank believes he is above the law. Understanding that only gives rise to one question ……..  how long can the people of Massachusetts tolerate Frank? Frank’s efforts do not simply effect the people of one district in Massachusetts. His work is effecting the entire nation. His efforts have helped to give birth to rising deficits, greater debt, less consumer confidence, more unemployment and a loss of trust in the collective decisions that Congress makes.

What will it take to finally reject the politics of patronage and pranks? What will it take for voters to say that after thirty years, Barney Frank is too entrenched in the politics of Party and personal privilege to represent the true needs of the people who he is so far removed from?

Now more than ever is the time to retire the professional politics of Barney Frank. It’s time for a citizen legislator to take his place and represent the needs of the people, not the needs of his self and of his Party.

If there was ever a time and place for someone like Barney Frank to be issued his pink slip, it is now and in Massachusetts.

Ten months ago, like the warnings of Paul Revere during his legendary ride, voters of Massachusetts sent Democrats a message. At the time it was just a signal, a signal sent up into the air when Massachusetts chose to have Republican Scott Brown succeed liberal lion Ted Kennedy in the United States Senate. Since then that Republican ripple has turned into a total Republican romp that is turning this years election map “Brown”.  But the romp won’t be complete if the very same people who started the Republican revival, reward Barney Frank with another term in office. The statement for change will not be fully made if Barney Frank is allowed to continue the politics of his past into the policy making process of our future.

To ask for lightning to strike the same place twice is a lofty goal but given the dramatically disrespectful, disgraceful and despicable product of thirty years of scandals and mistakes, not only is asking for lightning to strike the same place appropriate, it is worthy of us planting mile high lightning rods and flying from their peaks, kites with keys attached to their tethers.

Click Here To Sign Up With Sean

For that reason, it is incumbent on those who are fed up with the way things are going in America, to focus their attention on one of the members of Congress whom best represents all that we hate about politics. Aside from Nancy Pelosi, that person is Barney Frank, a man who symbolizes all that is wrong with federal government and all that we want to change in American politics.

That is why I am asking that you take the time to assist the effort to defeat Frank. Take the time to donate whatever you can spare to the campaign of Maj. Sean Bietlat.  Send him a note of encouragement and do your part in insuring that this November, change is truly served by ridding our halls of government of those whom pollute the political atmosphere, corrode the halls of government and throw America deeper into debt and the hands of socialism. Show your support for real change. Show your support for Maj. Bietlat and your dissatisfaction with Barney Frank.

As for those of you who believe that it will be impossible to unseat Frank, under normal circumstances I would agree. The voter registration for the four counties contained in the 4th C.D. (as of October 2008), had the numbers at  at a total enrollment of , 2,072,793 with  751,174 registered Democrats, 206,326 registered Republicans, and 860,140 Unenrolled. With figures like that, it is easy to see why Frank usually has an easy reelection. It helps explain how in 2008, when President Obama had long coattails, Frank won with 68% of the total vote.

But 2010 presents us with a situation that is far from normal. Nothing is “usual” this year. This year Republicans are likely to win more seats in the House than they have had since 1946. I believe that the G.O.P will pick up as many as at least 62 seats in the House and are likely to pick up 10 seats in the senate. This would mark one of the quickest comebacks of a Party in our history. Less than two years ago, Democrats were discussing the death of the G.O.P.. Liberals were suggesting that Republicans were going the way of the Whigs. And at the time, it may in fact have seemed like that. But since then, Democrats have taken the optimism of the American people and turned it into hatred. Hatred for the system, the process and the establishment running the system. That is why we have seen the birth of the TEA Party, and record numbers of incumbents lose their bids for renomination. It was also the reason that blue Massachusetts went Brown for Scott Brown when it came to replacing Ted Kennedy in the Senate.

And in that election, just ten months ago, despite the overwhelming plurality of Democrats in Frank’s congressional district, Scott Brown beat his Democrat opponent Martha Coakley by more than 1,700 votes.

Combine that with a national trend for change that involves anti-establishment, anti-incumbent and anti-Democrat sentiments and the fact that Sean Bielat, a virtual unkown, has shrunk Frank’s lead in the polls to 10%, a difference that is closer than Frank has seen in most any of his races, and what you have is the possibility of pulling off what at one time seemed impossible.

That is why now more than ever, hope for ridding ourselves of Barney Frank must be kept alive and the enthusiasm to defeat him must be kicked into high gear.   But even if the effort behind Bielat falls short this time around, remember this.  Defeating Barney Frank could require a two step process, a process that requires us in 2010 to make it known that defeating Frank is not impossible and in 2012, when even more voters turnout to vote, actually doing it and replacing Frank with Bielat.

But whether we get rid of Barney Frank now or later, it’s up to you to begin the process.  Donate to Maj. Bielat’s campaign for commonsense and a constitutional citizen legislature.  As Bielat notes;

 Barney Frank can raise huge amounts of money, much of it from special interests looking for his help. Competing with Barney will be a David and Goliath struggle, but we can do it with your help”.  

Just think of how much more refreshing and functional government would be without Barney Frank looking down on you and think of just how much you will regret not having helped retire him after seeing how close Maj. Bielat comesthe dream of sending Frank home can come true.   With your help, that dream can become reality. Without your help, it will remain a goal out of our reach.

Bookmark and Share

1 Comment

Filed under politics

Dan Coats Puts Indiana Into Undecided Column & the Senate Map Gets Browner

Bookmark and Share   Following up on our recent assessment of the Senate races taking place in the 2010 midterm elections, today POLITICS 24/7 moves Indiana into the possible Republican pickup column.

Despite his attempts to sound conservative, Evan Bayh has a lot to answer for and although he is usually on solid ground, Bayh was standing on a bed of shifting sand in this anti-Democrat, anti-incumbent environment.  However; Bayh is well established and has a history of convincing people that he is much more conservative than his voting record shows. So we saw his reelection as tougher than usual but safe.

But not anymore.

Senator Dan Coats has entered the race, and now that he has, with his favorable and reputable record make him a real threat to Evan Bayh as Americans sour on Bayh’s liberal party affiliation and support for some major liberal initiatives.

So In addition to New York, Washington, and Wisconsin being possible pickups for the G.O.P., POLITIICS 24/7 now adds Indiana to the list.

These increasingly competitive seats are just icing on the cake that so far has Republicans beating Democrats in Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. That’s eight seats. If Republicans can pick up one of the four possible pick up seats, that would give the G.O.P. fifty seats to the Democrats seats. That would allow Vice President Joe Biden to cast the deciding vote. If they can win two of the four pickup seats that would give Republicans 51 seats and majority control, making Joew Biden as inconsequential as he really is.

For a full analysis of the 2010 senate election map and the other races, see; 2010 Senate Races Are Turning The Map “Brown”

Bookmark and Share

1 Comment

Filed under politics

2010 Senate Races Are Turning The Map “Brown”

Bookmark and Share   After Massachusetts went Brown for Scott Brown, POLITICS 24/7 recently noted that if the G.O.P. can convince voters that they have learned a lesson and truly understand that Americans are looking for a limited, constitutionally driven government, that minds its own business and focuses on that which it is suppose to, such as our national defense and sovereignty, they are on schedule to pick up a minimum of 27 House seats and 7 Senate seats. 

If Republicans can not only convince voters that they learned their lesson but also go a step further and organize themselves around a unified message, I also pointed out that they can actually pick up as many 9 or 10 Senate seats and 41 House seats to achieve a 218 to 217 seat majority and a 50/50 split or 51/49 majority in the Senate.

Over the past few days, as seen in the map below, the odds of the high end of these predictions rather than the low end, have increased greatly, especially in the Senate, where some seemingly safe Democrat seats are leaning more toward the toss up column.

In Colorado, the Centennial State, Democrat Michael Bennet, whose election is already in doubt, is looking to be in even more doubt. Bennet, was appointed by the state’s unpopular Governor, to fill Republican Ken Salazar’s seat after President Obama appointed Salazar to his Cabinet as Interior Secretary. Now it is looking like Senator Bennet’s shaky bid to a full term in the Senate will be further damaged by a challenge for the Democrat nomination from Andrew Romanoff who has just signed some high priced and reputable Democrat consultants and pollsters to his primary campaign. This will undoubtedly make it even more difficult for Democrats to compete in an environment that is becoming less and less friendly for them in Colorado as each day passes.

A quick fly over to the East and a look at Deleware reveals that since the son of the favorite son of the Diamond State, Joe Biden, is not going to seek his fathers old Senate seat, Republican Congressman Mike Castle has this one almost in the bag. Considering the lousy environment for Democrats this time around, Beau Biden is conceding that race to Castle and running for reelection as the state’s Attorney General.

From the Diamond State in the East, we head back to the West and the Silver State, where another political gem reveals itself for Republicans.

Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s poll numbers have him plummeting to earth in a death spiral that has gravity hurtling him to the ground faster than Martha Coakley in a race against Scott Brown, and unlike Coakley, who Reid’s Republican opponent will be, is not even official yet.

According to financial filings released this past Friday, the Democrat leader turned out his weakest fundraising quarter of the entire past year. Not a good sign for a campaign that is trying get his reelection bid off the ground. In addition to that, approval ratings in the low 30’s are not a good sign of Reid’s ability to bring in a hell of a lot more money for what is looking like a doomed reelection bid.

While we’re here in the West, Washington State is worth looking at. Here we find that once safe Democrat Senator Patty Murray’s sneakers are beginning to wear thin on the voters of the Evergreen State. Here, a new poll shows that three term incumbent Patty Murray pulls 42% against two time Republican Gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi who polls 45% in a Murray-Rossi match-up.

But the fault line that lies in the Democrats base does not end there. From The Evergreen State, it meanders eastward to the Badger State where the confident and once secure liberal lion cub, Russ Foolsgold, I mean Feingold, now finds himself at risk if former Governor Tommy Thompson runs against him. If Thompson does decide to go for it, something which he is seriously mulling over, Thompson would take 47% to Feingold’s 43%.

But the more you travel this great land of ours, the worse the news gets for Democrats.

As is the case south of Wisconsin, in Missouri where voters in the Show Me State seem to want to see something more than the Carnahan dynasty represent them. Robin Carnahan, the Secretary of State and daughter of the former Governor Mel Carnahan is looking to run for the seat that her father ran for and won, even though he was killed in a plane crash only days before the election. Governor Carnahan’s posthumous victory allowed the Lieutenant Governor that succeeded Mel upon his death, to appoint Mel’s wife…..Robin’s mother. But since then Mama Carnahan lost that seat in a special election and now Robin is seeking to get back the seat that she sees as part of her families inheritance. The only problem is that Robin Carnahan is now behind her Republican opponent, Roy Blunt by 6 percentage points. On top of that in the last quarter Carnahan’s financial reports indicate that she has been having a tough time getting financial support.

Having seen the Show Me State’s state of political affairs, The Keystone State offers an even sadder situation for Democrats as now incumbent Democrat Arlen Specter finds himself in a primary against Democrat Congressman Joe Sestak. That will be a race that simply saps out whatever life is left in Arlen’s senate career and make it harder to overcome the 14% that a new poll has him trailing the Republican opponent, Pat Toomey, by.

A bit further East of Pennsylvania and Democrats are even finding the friendly liberal environment of the Empire State to be a challenge. Here, Kirsten Gillibrand finds herself having a tough time keeping Hillary Clinton’s old senate seat as former Tennessee Congressman, Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. starts beating up on her before he even officially challenges her in a race for the Democrat nomination.

In a number of polls, Gillibrand already trails former Republican Governor George Pataki, if he enters the race. Whether he runs or not is still highly doubtful. But with Gillibrand viewed highly favorable by a mere 9% of New Yorkers and unfavorably by 17%, finding a decent Republican who can possibly take this should not be hard………“should not be”, but probably will.   At the very least, a good candidate will force Democrats to pump money into a seat that the DNSC would rather invest elsewhere.

These are just some of the latest developments that only add to the likely Republican takeover of seats in Arkansas, Illinois and North Dakota. But if none of that worries Democrats yet, one thing that should is a very common denominator. All of these candidates, not to mention Arkansas, Illinois and North Dakota as well, have the Democrat incumbents and the likely Democrats nominees approval ratings that are below 50%. Historically, at this stage of game, just a mere nine or so months away, any incumbent who is preferred by less than half of their constituents, is in trouble.

That in and of itself means big trouble for most Democrats and although things could change, it is getting a little late in the game to turn things around.

Bookmark and Share

2 Comments

Filed under politics