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THE TOP 10 POLITICAL HAPPENINGS OF 2008

With the new year here, we have the opportunity to reflect on the year gone by and to thank the passage of time for resolving some situations. While some happenings in 2008 came and went, other events of 2008 still require time, time that will absorb much of 2009 and even beyond.

So today, before we forge ahead with the rest of this new year, we reflect on the events that shaped politics and the politics that shaped events, by presenting to you the 10 most significant political stories of the year that helped to get us where we are today.

TONY SNOW

TONY SNOW

10. – THE DEATHS OF TIM RUSSERT and TONY SNOW

TIM RUSSERT

TIM RUSSERT

Both of these men loved politics. For a time they were both involved in politics on different sides of the aisle and at a different times they covered politics. Tony Snow started in print and broadcast journalism delivering political news and commentary and ended his career in politics as the Press Secretary for President Bush. Tim Russert began in politics working for a political legend, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York and ended covering politics on NBC. As host of Meet The Press, Tim became a part of every American household and despite his personal left leaning tendencies Tim Russert was respected for probing questions that were leveled at liberals and conservatives alike. Tony Snow was also a partisan. For decades he was a favorite in conservative circles, yet when delivering a news story people of every party carefully listened to the insightful delivery of facts that he presented. His last major endeavor was one that helped provide the White House with the ability to properly convey the right messages. Tony served as Press Secretary for 17 months. Probably the most understandable 17 months of the Presidents two terms in office. Tim Russert died after suffering a massive heart attack on Jun 13th at the age of 58 and Tony Snow died after battling colon cancer on July 12th at the age of 53. In life they shaped politics and political opinion. In death, they left us a legacy of lessons and examples to follow.

9 . – IS  THAT CAMPAIGN MONEY IN YOUR POCKET OR ARE YOU JUST GLAD TO SEE ME

FORMER NY GOVERNOR ELLIOT SPITZER

FORMER NY GOVERNOR ELLIOT SPITZER

The Empire State helped to set a tone for 2008 when early in the year, New York’s Governor, Elliot Spitzer got caught up in scandal. After serving only 14 months in office the rising Democrat star found himself standing next to his wife announcing his resignation. Suspicious transfers of money in and out of Spitzer’s bank account led federal investigators to believe that he might be taking bribes. However their probe discovered that for over several years Spitzer wasn’t taking bribes, he was paying out at least $80,000 for prostitutes. The period covered his tenure as New York’s Attorney General as well as his brief time as Governor. The happiest people of all in this episode were David Paterson and New Jersey. As Spitzer’s Lieutenant Governor, Paterson, became New York’s first African American Governor, and the nation’s first legally blind one. New Jersey was just happy to know that they were no longer the only state in the region to lose a governor because of sexual scandals and illegal conduct.

8. – WEEKEND AT KIM’S

NOT WANTED but is he dead or alive?

NOT WANTED but is he dead or alive?

Around August rumors began to circulate that North Korea’s obscure and, to put it kindly, eccentric leader, Kim Jong-Il, was dead. Since then no reputable sources have either seen him or heard from him. Not that that is unusual, few people have ever heard or seen Kim Jong-Il, but what is unusual are recent decisions that Kim Jong-Il supposedly made to eliminate efforts to develop nuclear power. Did Kim make that decision? Is North Korea really abandoning nuclear ambitions? Or is North Korea propping up Kim Jong-Il, like a bad, out of sync, Korean version of “Weekend At Bernie’s” while a different, unknown, brain dead ruler is pulling the strings and, at the same time, trying to pull the wool over our eyes? All jokes aside, the sensitivity of the situation is a dire one. Chaos on the Korean Peninsula could create a ripple effect that no one can afford. Dramatic events could alter sensitive relations with South Korea and negotiations with the United States. All of which could result in tensions throughout the world including those involving hard feelings between North Korea and Japan. And let us not forget North Korea’s greatest ally, China. With their booming economy, the Chinese are ambitious. Knowing who is in charge of things could be helpful in 2009.

7. – BID WELL FIDEL?

BID WELL TO FIDEL?

BID WELL TO FIDEL?

In 1959 Cuba took on the face of Fidel Castro. Just 90 miles off of our shores, Cuban communism and Castro were too close for comfort. As much as we didn’t like it, invasions, coups and even assassination attempts did not eliminate Castro’s hold on power. However, time did reduce Castro’s influence. As time changed most of the world, Castro and Cuba didn’t but the logistics which helped to make him a thorn in our side did change. The, once feared communist Soviet-Cuban relationship lost it’s potency as the Soviet Union lost it’s hammer and sickle. As time went by, our concerns with Cuba focused more on human rights for Cubans than defense from Cuba. So it was still welcome news when, in February, we discovered that an ailing Fidel Castro was resigning from office. Not that it mattered much. Before stepping down, Fidel told the Cuban Communist Party that they were too elect his brother Raul to be the new Commander in Chief. The event did not change things very much but after almost 50 years in power, and events such as the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban Missile Crisis, Elian Gonzales and other disconcerting situations, as minor as the effects of this change may be, Fidel’s painstakingly slow departure from the world stage is welcomed and ranks as the seventh most dramatic political occurrence of 2008.

6. – THE GEOGIAN-RUSSIAN WARant1georgis1a2

It was not a battle that reshaped Europe again but the surprising developments that caused the Russian Army to invade a neighboring, breakaway Republic with internationally recognized sovereignty, gave us all a glimpse of reality. It may not be the Soviet Union anymore but a bear by any other name is still a bear and the vulnerabilities of newly formed and reformed European nations and those with relatively new freedoms still offer some new Russian leaders the same old reasons for wanting control. The incident helped to demonstrate that freedom in parts of Europe is still a fragile concept.

ROD "How much do 'ya want" BLAGOJEVICH

ROD "How much do 'ya want" BLAGOJEVICH

5. – THE EBAY APPOINTMENT

2008 ended with a story that will carry well into the first months of 2009. As President-Elect Obama vacated his seat in the U.S. Senate, Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich began a private auction process to determine who will fill the vacancy. As investigators, under the direction of federal prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald, investigated Blagojevich for numerous improprieties, they discovered that he was basing his appointment to the senate seat on who could give him the most for it. Blago wanted either a “cushy union” job, a high paying cabinet position or at the very least an enormous financial campaign contribution. After being arrested the Illinois state legislature began impeachment proceedings against Blagojevich and he began digging in his heals refusing to resign. The events have the potential for drawing in some big name co-conspirators and participants. From Rep. Jesse Jackson, jr. to President -Elect Obama’s incoming Chief of Staff, Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuelle, many reputations may yet be questioned in this scandal. And to make things even more interesting, Blagojevich took the opportunity to raise the stakes and named Roland Burris, a long time, old line, liberal Chicago Democrat party machine hack to replace Barack Obama. Not at all concerned with peoples faith in government, or the integrity of the process, Burriss accepted the tainted appointment and in doing so, puts the United States and it’s Democrat leader, Harry Reid in the position of denying to seat someone that would be the only African American in the United States Senate. So coming in as the fifth top political occurrence in 2008 is the story that will keep on bleeding and keep us reading…..the process to replace a Barack Obama in the senate. 

4. – BRINGING OUTSIDERS IN

GOVERNOR SARAH PALIN

GOVERNOR SARAH PALIN

One of the most important political decisions made in 2008 was John McCain’s selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin for Vice President on the Republican ticket. It was a controversial choice for some and one of the only right decisions made in the opinions of others. No matter how you see it, it remains one of the most spoken about political stories of the year. Beyond the newsworthiness are the implications. For many it was a sign of the fact that government needs thinking that is as far removed from the Washington D.C. mentality as Alaska is from Washington D.C itself. Many Americans are tired of Washington politics and want common sense as opposed to the one hand washes the other, old boys bureaucracy that we perceive as screwing us more than helping us. Sarah Palin embodied, and still does embody, that thinking. She is a political outsider who became a Governor by opposing the political class while representing the working class. Without abandoning conservative Republican principles, Sarah Palin fought against corrupt Republican and liberal politicians. Although picking Sarah Palin for Vice President may have been the right decision for John McCain, trying to restrict and control her wasn’t. By trying to script Sarah Palin, the McCain campaign lost out on the greatest advantageous quality Palin brought to the ticket…….her anti-establishment, outsider qualities. As McCain lost the election for President, Sarh Palin won exposure. Exposure that has made her a person who conservatives look forward to advancing the cause and for Americans to have to consider for national leadership in the future. So at number four in 2008 is the selection of Sarah Palin for Vice President. Thank you senator McCain!

ant1oil23. – “OILS WELL” IN THE ECONOMY?

The price of oil ranks third on our list of top stories. As prices for a barrel of oil soared to heights in excess of 150 dollars a barrel , gas prices flew up to over 4 dollars a gallon and the ripple effects raise the cost of everything from milk, eggs and bread to lumber, air fares, and life in general. The high cost of energy generated heated debates over domestic oil drilling, and pushed issues like immigration and terrorism off of the front burners in the race for President. Based upon the duration of the immediate negative effects of the price of oil combined with its ripple effects on the economy, its control of the political agenda and the long term policy initiatives that it created, oil prices is number 3 in ‘08. It is also likely to become a top story again, at least around August of ‘09, when the now delightfully low prices we see rise back up. 

2. – THE ELECTION OF BARACK OBAMA 

PRESIDENT-ELECT BARACK OBAMA

PRESIDENT-ELECT BARACK OBAMA

Putting all political opinion aside. Barack Obama ran a long hard campaign, that Republican strategists are dissecting in order to reproduce in elections of their own. The Obama campaign not only effectively tapped into voter dissatisfaction they organized it and organized it well. Their utilization of the internet was exemplary and their ability win favor through eloquence and style over substance and fact was political perfection. Despite some pitfalls such as Bill Ayers, ACORN, Rev. Wright, admitting a desire akin to socialism by stating that he wanted to spread the wealth , Barack Obama won big. To do so his campaign raised historic amounts of money and more than just raising that money, they spent it right and put it to good use. A use that mobilized the forces well enough to produce his substantial victory. The election of President-Elect Barack Obama comes in second on out not only because of how he won but because he did win. His victory marked the election of America’s first African American President. Like ant other first, it is notable and in this case it is profoundly notable. It demonstrates an undeniable ability for our nation to overcome racial differences and the evidence of decency overcoming prejudice is promising. The effects of President-Elect Obama’s leadership are yet to be seen but the lessons learned and points made by his election are unquestionable.

ant1bailout21 . – BAIL OUT MANIA

POLITICS 24/7 considers the 700 billion dollar bailout that the federal government approved to be the most profound and important story of 2009. Not only was the suggested need for this bailout indicative of our wrong ways of the past, it signaled a continuation of wrong ways in the future. Our promotion of spending as the answer to all of our problems has created generations ands a government that spend beyond our means. The 700 billion dollar bailout meant to solve our problems didn’t solve our anything, it just provided a quick fix. It did however, create more problems. It has called upon more people and more industries to put their own hands out. The bailout set in motion a sense of government control that has taken freedom, with all of it’s risks and promises, out of the free market and it has helped to move America closer to the socialism that we have fought against in the past. Many major events come and go in politics. What we once saw as earth shattering developments often become something that we later laugh about but we fear that bailout trend established in 2008 is no laughing matter for any time.

2008 was an intense year. There were many events and some of the most dramatic ones did not involve politics. Human nature played a role in all of them though and hopefully our better instincts will drive the events and politics of 2009.

With that in mind we wish everyone a happy new year and hope that our better instincts help to make each and every day better than the last.

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We Get The Government That We Deserve

If Barack Obama wins this election, it will be deserved.
 
He will have successfully orchestrated a campaign that effectively persuaded enough votes to establish a plurality of enough states to garner the 270 or more electoral votes needed to win.

The United States will also be getting what it deserves.

If there are a majority of people in this country whom are willing to adopt a system approaching socialism and that burdens the taxpayer with government programs and redistribution of wealth, than we deserve it.

If that is what the people think they want, than they need to suffer it’s consequences. They need to learn their lesson. They need to realize what excessive taxation does and what the government can’t effectively do and shouldn’t do.

It will be a much deserved consequence for my party too.

The Republican party became complacent. After a dozen years in control of the house and senate they lost their maverick, conservative thinking, their antigovernment thinking. The type of thinking that opposed heavy governmental influence over the daily lives of people. It was a school of thought which challenged a ruling bureaucratic mentality and opposed political hypocrisy, and a ruling arrogance that put those in government above the law.

After a dozen years in power, Republicans lost that thinking and began to suffer from the repercussions of letting power go to their heads. They began to enjoy their own power more than the opportunity to empower those they represented.

So in losing sight, they lost power.

My party also deserves to lose this election because we have failed to properly articulate our purpose. We failed to convey the fact that the GOP believes, first and foremost, in the power of freedom. That belief includes the defense of freedom at home, as well as abroad.

We failed to convey the fact that as Republicans we are proponents of the greatest social welfare program known to man. A program called opportunity. It is the one program that helps more people in more ways than any other government program created by FDR and LBJ combined.

Opportunity opens all doors for all those who are willing to walk through them and, as republicans, our mission is to create opportunities for all and make it available to all.

We failed to explain that opportunity is not achieved by bringing down some to better a few, but by lifting government burdens and lowering taxes on all. It is achieved by lowering costs on businesses so that they can hire more people and provide more opportunity to people. It is achieved by lowering the cost of running a burdensome government so that taxes on the people can be lowered and allow them the opportunity to spend more, as well save more and invest more in more opportunities.

Not a single Republican stepped up and stated that instead of the government offering citizens hundreds of dollars in a rebate to stimulate the economy, maybe we should be taking less from them in the first place.

The money we gave back to the people to spark our economic engine was originally taken from the people. Yet has one Republican been bold enough to question the premature talks of Obama, Pelosi and Reid to offer another stimulus package if Obama is elected? Has one of them asked why if giving the citizens back their money stimulates the economy, than why is lowering taxes and letting them keep the money that we are giving back to them not a stimulus for the economy in the first place?”

The GOP missed the opportunity to unite Americans around the fact that the expansion of opportunity is not achieved by expanding government. It is achieved by lifting government ’s burdens and restrictions on thing likes education where we need to expand school choice through vouchers. Issues like that were gift wrapped and handed to us by Barack Obama.

Obama called for more government and more taxes for more government . He is calling for more government restrictions and fewer opportunities for personal choices such as those that would be made available through school vouchers.

While Obama based his campaign on more government and dividing Americans with class warfare, John McCain could have united us by promoting less government and more freedom and opportunity. Opportunity is what can unite us. Obama’s class warfare is what divides us.

These are just some of the points not effectively made by Republicans in this election. McCain touched upon such notes but barely. It was not a message that was developed and conveyed enough. Part of the reason for that may very well be the fact that we nominated John McCain.

In John McCain we selected a nominee who has never been closely associated with the conservative philosophy. It was part of his problem from the beginning and it required him to waste valuable time trying to define himself as a conservative in order to inspire the party he represented. He had to do so at a time when the conservative label was not regarded highly by the general populous. Had McCain not needed to solidify his conservative credentials, with the party base, he could have used that time to solidify his well deserved maverick image. An image that is highly regarded by Americans.

Instead, the McCain campaign, forged ahead with a mottled message. It was a message that inspired few, connected with even fewer and never struck a cohesive chord that attracted enough people to rally around.

Under these circumstances, Barack Obama was able to capitalize on the anti-republican sentiments that have come about because of another individual who lost the ability to convey the right message, our inarticulate, incumbent, republican president.

Truthfully, Obama’s campaign was nothing great either. His success is merely rooted the failure of poorly run, republican campaign.

The originality of Barack Obama’s campaign slogan, “Change” was less than creative, effective for the time, but not creative. And his ability to change any minds was minimal. His campaign did inspire the choir that he was preaching to but it did not convert the nonbelievers. Unlike Ronald Reagan and Reagan Democrats, the term Obama Republicans is not something that we will be referring to as a political sea of change over the course of a generation. There are few, if any, who are republicans today, that will be calling themselves democrats tomorrow, even if they vote for Obama on Tuesday.

If there is a significant number of republicans voting for Obama, they are doing so not because they believe in the liberal ideology that he espouses, but because they do not like the messenger that we have in John McCain. Some republicans may even vote for Obama as a form of protest urging the GOP to get back to it’s more conservative, antigovernment economic roots. Others may not go so far as to vote for Obama’s socialism. Instead they may just provide the margin of victory for Obama by not voting at all and denying McCain support that another republican candidate would have gotten from them.

Either way, if Barack Obama is elected president, it will be due more to McCain losing than Obama winning. Obama’s campaign was nothing great. He offered us nothing new. He simply offered more of the failed policies that republicans had to save us from in the 80’s. Obama may win because he shaped himself up to be a governmental messiah that intends to make government the source of our greatness. It is an approach that rejects the fundamental thinking that allows one to understand that the source of our greatness is not government but our people, our free people, endowed by our creator not by a bureaucracy.

If he wins it will be a mistake that we can learn from and we certainly will learn from it.

On the other hand, if John McCain gets elected, it will not be because his campaign was a model of successful strategy. It will be because most Americans do understand that the change Barack Obama is offering us is too closely aligned with the socialism that America has fought against. And if that is the case, unlike Michelle Obama, it won’t be the first time that I am proud of my country. It will just be another reason for my continued pride in my country.

If not, I will continue to be proud of my relatively young nation and chalk the next four years off to the same type of experimentation and learning experiences that all youth must go through. My only fears deal with the existing threats that we face. The type of threats that all vulnerable youngsters need protection from during dangerous times.

If electing Barack Obama is needed to provide us with a learning experience in socialism, what learning experience will it take to teach us how to properly defend ourselves? That is a lesson we should have already learned by now, but I guess 9/11 was either not dramatic enough or too long ago for people to remember very well.

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Campaign Promises and More Promises

It was election time, again. So, a politician decided to go out to the local reservation to gather support from the Native Americans. They were all assembled in the Council Hall to hear the speech. 

 

The politician had worked up to his finale, and the crowd was getting more and more excited. “I promise better education opportunities for Native Americans!”

 

The crowd went wild, shouting “Hoya! Hoya!” 

 

The politician was a bit puzzled by the native word, but was encouraged by their enthusiasm. “I promise gambling reforms to allow a Casino on the Reservation!”

 

“Hoya! Hoya!” cried the crowd, stomping their feet.

 

“I promise more social reforms and job opportunities for Native Americans!” 

 

The crowd reached a frenzied pitch shouting “Hoya! Hoya! Hoya!”

 

After the speech, the politician was touring the Reservation, and saw a tremendous herd of cattle. Since he was raised on a ranch, and knew a bit about cattle, he asked the Chief if he could get closer to take a look at the cattle.

 

“Sure,” the Chief said, “but be careful not to step in the hoya.”

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ELECTION NIGHT SCHEDULE AND PREDICTIONS

Election night can and will be very interesting but if you have yourself the right tools it could be a short one.  Certain state races could be quite telling and barring any voter machine falures or an obvious voter scandal that calls for the impounding of ballots, if some of those states go one way or the other, you couid know who the next President will be buy as early as 8:00 pm.  Maybe even earlier.
 
But to reach that conclusion you need the right tools.  So here it is, your own little election night guide.
It’s kind of like a racing slip for the Kentucky Derby of elections. 

Below you will find the scheduled poll closing times for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.  You will also find the play by play for one election night scenario.

 
7PM Eastern
Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
 
At 7:00 pm the first polls close In Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. If the results are not particularly close, projections could be made within minutes. Vermont will be a landslide and it will be called for Senator Barack Obama. Kentucky, South Carolina and Georgia will also have pluralities large enough s to safely call them,  but they will be for Senator John McCain.  These results may come in relatively quickly, probably by 7:10 to 7:20 PM.

Virginia is also, usually, called rather quickly but I suspect that there will not be a rapid rush to call Virginia for Obama or McCain. With polls claiming that the Virginia race is in the bag for Barack Obama by as much as 10% and others having the race as close as 2% combined with the high voter turnout, calling this one quickly may be tough.. Ultimately though, Virginia is likely going blue. If it does, McCain is in trouble. By losing Virginia, Senator McCain will need to make up for the loss of their 11 electoral votes and he will have to do so within a map that offers him few opportunities. It will not be impossible to make them up but difficult. However, Indiana closes it’s polls at this time and if Indiana goes to Barack Obama, especially with Virginia going the same way, than you can start hiding your money under the mattresses because you can safely say that President Obama will be living in the White House

An average of all polls in Indiana give Barrack Obama an edge over McCain by less than half of 1 percent but if there is any state that is likely to lean in McCain’s direction it is Indiana so if McCain does get it, the first round of poll closings should result with John McCain receiving 42 electoral college votes to Obama’s 16.                                      

7:30PM Eastern
Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina

The biggest player in this second round, Ohio, will probably be the most conclusive of all. If Senator McCain losses their 20 electoral votes, the possibility to win any combinations that reaches the magic number of 270 electoral votes is highly unlikely. To do so he would need Pennsylvania, Missouri, Florida, Colorado, Indiana as well as two other state that may have already been called for Obama, Virginia and North Carolina.  That would leave Obama with only 265 to McCain’s 273. This highly doubtful.
West Virginia is unquestionably in McCain’s column and despite the current polls of these states, in this second set of closings, I expect McCain to win Ohio in and North Carolina.   Conventional wisdom and history would seem to make this very possible if not likely. So we give them to him. That brings the total count for John McCain to 82 electors to Obama’s 16.


8:00PM Eastern

Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

Now 8:00 pm arrives. If McCain received any of the necessary combinations needed up to this point, here too, is a do or die situation for John McCain. It also produces one of the most lucrative results of all poll closing times. 171 electoral votes are up for grabs at this point and it includes some of the south which is strong territory for McCain. The problem is that much of Obama’s true blue northeastern states also turn out their results at 8 o‘clock. The results for the Obama rich megalopolis from Massachusetts in the Northeast to DC in the Mid Atlantic begins to pour out for him here. It also includes the crucial states of Pennsylvania and Missouri. Most important of all for McCain will be the sunshine state of Florida.  We can safely say that of the states in this 8:00 pm round of poll closings, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee will break for McCain. That gives him 33 more electors bringing him up to 115.

Obama will definitely take Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Washington, DC and his home state of Illinois. That’s a total of 84 bringing Obama up to 95votes in the electoral college.

That leaves us with the battleground states of Missouri and two of the biggest cliff hangers in this 8:00 pm closing time. They are some of the biggest prizes in the electoral sweepstakes , Pennsylvania and Florida.

Parts of Florida close ealier than 8:00 pm.  But by 8 pm, the panhandle, which is in a different time zone form the rest of the state,  makes the results in Florida official.  In the 2000 election, the pro-Gore media ignored this fact and called the election for Gore before these results were in.  I do not expect them to make the same error this time.

With an average of polls showing McCain trailing in Florida by 2.2 %, he can pull it off. If he does, it gives him a total of 142 electoral votes and he will still be in the race for at least another half hour and the next rounds of results.

With the polls almost as close in Missouri as they are in Florida, I will put Missouri in Mac’s column too. Now he is up to 153.

The remaining state in this group, Pennsylvania, is becoming interesting.

Obama’s reference to the citizens of the western part of the state “bitterly clinging to their guns and religion” along with their own Congressman John Murtha first calling them racists and than apologizing by calling them rednecks, Pennsylvania could be in play and I think it just might be the surprise of the night.  I think McCain will win it by a whisper.   If the polls in Pennsylvania are as inaccurate as I believe, and it does go McCain’s way, he will now have 174 electoral votes.

I do regret that this is looking unlikely.  McCain most likely will not be able to pull it off. Currently Mac is in back by as much as 11% here. That would give Obama 116 electoral votes and would also likely seal his winning the 2008 election for President of the United States.

If the scenario goes the way I have suggested, so far, and McCain can pull off Pennsylvania,  Senator McCain is still viable when we get to 8:30 pm and the next polls close.

8:30PM

Arkansas

By the time many of the 8:00 pm results are being tabulated and projections are being made in other states, parts of Arkansa start reporting results.  Arkansas, with it’s 6 electoral votes closes it’s polls at 8:30 pm. By 9:00 pm all voting is completed in Arkansas and the results should be conclusive enough to call it for McCain. That would bring the Republican nominee up to 180 electors.

9:00PM Eastern

Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

At 9:00 pm., the polls close in 14 more states. It concludes the Northeast where Obama wins New York and Rhode Isalnd bringing Obama up to 130 electoral votes, just 50 less than McCain. But McCain will be able to safely claim victories in the results from states outside of the Northeast. Such as his home state of Arizona.  Others include South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Louisiana, Kansas and the second largest prize, Texas. That will bring John McCain up to 250.

In addition to New York and Rhode Island, Senator Obama should easily claim 42 more electoral votes from the combined total of victories in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Barack Obama will now have 172 electoral votes in his column.

That leaves Colorado. Obama is ahead here but it is not a insurmountable lead for John McCain to overcome. However, trends would indicate to me that Obama will take Colorado and after the 9:00 pm results have been projected it will be Barack Obama 181electoral votes to John McCain’s 250.

 

10:00PM Eastern

Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

At 10:00 pm 4 more state polls close and throw their combined 20 electoral votes into the ring. Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah should all be good states for McCain but Obama’s has a lead in Iowa that will not be overtaken and so Obama will get their 7 electors. McCain should take Montana and will take the state that consistently gives Republicans some of the widest margins of victory in all elections, Utah. Now it’s 258 Mccain to 188 for Obama.

Yet again another crucial state for McCain will be Nevada. If he manages to win Virginia earlier in the evening and still wins Ohio and Missouri the final result would be 269 to 269. Obama would still win any such tie in the electoral college by a majority of states controlled by democratic congressional delegations but if McCain happened to change New Hampshire’s direction and won the granite state, he would be the next President.
Fact is that McCain is behind Obama by an average of 3.3 % in Nevada.   Even though that is a smaller margin than in other states, Obama will probably pull Nevada off. His ground game and union support from hotel workers and gambling interests in Las Vegas make him tough to beat here. So now it’s Obama’s 193 to McCain’s 258. If McCain did happen to win Nevada it still wont matter. The Obama blue tide to come will inevitably doom McCain to his last campaign for President.

                                                                           

11:00PM Eastern
California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington

By 11:00 pm. Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington State and the largest electoral prize, California, all close their poll.
McCain will undoubtedly take Idaho and North Dakota which would bring his electoral vote count to 265. Obama is going to win Hawaii, Oregon and the state of Washington overwhelmingly, which brings him up to 215 votes.

Then California’s whopping 55 electoral votes will be handed over to Senator Barack Obama like the Oscar being awarded to the years best actor at the Academy Awards ceremony. The Keith Olbermanns, Chris Matthews, Tom Brokaws and other liberal loving loons will be able to rejoice with certainty because Barack Obama will have a total of 270 electoral votes. That would be just the right number needed to win .

                                                                             

1:00AM Eastern – Alaska

It won’t be over though. With iceberg like speed, Alaska will make it official at 1:00 am and cast all three of their electoral votes for John McCain and their popular Governor, Sarah Palin. That would give the McCain-Palin ticket a total of 268 electoral votes or 2 short of what he would have needed to win.

Of course there are 4 different possible scenarios that could create a victory for John McCain.   Some include winning Pennsylvania while also taking Nevada while still losing in Virginia.  Other scenarios don’t allow McCain to prevail but are more interesting. One actually is a tie in the electoral college with a combination of state wins for McCain that includes New Hampshire.  All are unlikely.  It is even unlikely that McCain will win Pennsylvania.  
 
The bottom line though is, that if current polls are correct,  McCain will probably lose not only Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina but Florida as well as Pennsylvania and Missouri. 

Either way one should be able to tell who won by between 8:00 pm and 8:30 pm.  It could be even earlier than that.  If when the polls close at 7:00 pm, Indiana has Obama winning their electoral college votes, than you can rest assured that McCain probably can’t pull out victories in some of the other states that he needs and are less friendly to his candidacy than Indiana is.

 
If after 7:30 pm,North Carolina bolted it’s previous red hue and went blue for Obama, even if McCain won in Indiana, that could prove to be fatal.  If North Carolina votes for Obama it will most likely precludes Senator John McCain from being able to achieve the minimal number of 270 electoral required to win the election. 
Polls have been known to be wrong and there is still a chance for McCain to win. Obama has not locked up states like Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina or even Colorado and Virginia.  New Hampshire could alos start changing directions as undecided voters begin to break in his direction. 

In any event I am confident in this fact.  Obama will win the popular vote  He will do so even if he losses the election in the electoral college.  I make this claim because Obama will produce the highest voter turnout we have ever seen in our urban centers, the areas where the highest concentration of voters are.

Obama will produce victories in heavily populated states like New York and California, Michigan and even in Florida.  Barack Obama will win with exorbitant pluralities, especially in cities.  Because of those high concentration of voters he will win some states with those highly populated, big cities by a million or more votes.  Whereas McCain will win in smaller states and by smaller margins.  Margins more like tens or hundreds of thousands as opposed to millions.

  
The margin of victories will not matter as much as the electoral college vote.  So if McCain can win some key states like Missouri, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, even by a small margin, it won’t matter how many millions Obama beats McCain by in places like New York, Illinois or California and you can rest assured that Obama will beat him big time in those places.
  
I actually fear the reaction that we might encounter from the electorate if McCain wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote to Obama.  It is a reaction that will probably effect us more than the presidenciy of either McCain or Obama.
  
 Below Are Some Of The Likely Scenarios
This map depicts the results articulated in the above account

This map depicts the results articulated in the above account

A very possible mccain victory scenario

A very possible mccain victory scenario

A less likely but still possible McCain victory scenario

A less likely but still possible McCain victory scenario

The unlikely but very possible tied election result

The unlikely but very possible tied election result

 

One of the more likely Obama victory maps

One of the more likely Obama victory maps

The most of the most likely Obama victory results

Another Obama possible win scenario

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Republicans Democrats

The difference between Republicans & Democrats

 A Republican and a Democrat were walking down the street when they came to a homeless person.

The republican gave the homeless person his business card and told him come to his business for a job. He then took twenty dollars out of his pocket and gave it to the homeless person.

The Democrat was very impressed, and when they came to another homeless person, He decided to help. He walked over to the homeless person and gave him directions to the welfare office. He then reached into the Republicans pocket and gave him fifty dollars.

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