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CD-9 New York Special Election: Udpdated Results

Bookmark and ShareHere you wil find updated election results for the CD-9 special election in New York. Updates will be provided at least every 10 minutes

 Based on the districts that are reporting in and projections that indicate there is not of enough of a vote to come in from the remaining districts White House 2012 and Politics 24/7 is calling this race for Republican Bob Turner

U.S. House – District 9 – Special General

442 of 512 Precincts Reporting – 86% 

 

Bob Turner                          —   GOP                32,212  — 53%

David Weprin                     —   Dem              27,460    — 46%

Christopher Hoeppner    — SWP                     277        –  0

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Republicans Can’t Gloat, But They Can Listen To the Voters & Set an Example

Bookmark and Share    Two years ago I listened to Democrats tell me “Republicans have gone the way of the Whigs”, “this is the end of the Republican Party”, “the Republican Party is forever lost”, “they will never comeback”. These are direct quotes. They are the thoughts of euphoric liberals who saw, then President-Elect Barack Obama, as a messianic figure, a modern JFK and the “hope” of our nation. At the time, I could not help but think, first, these are the same people who think Joe Biden is a genius, and second, how naïve could these people be?

I for one understand the cyclical nature of politics and I also understood the nature of the Democrats slow rise to control between 2004 and 2008. So, confident in the principles that lie at the heart of the G.O.P., I knew the Republican Party was not dead. I knew that we would come back and I never abandoned the cause to bring ’em back.  I hoped for my Party to have learned a lesson and come to understand what they did wrong. I was also confident that, being dominated by liberals, the Democrat Party would prove incompetent. I stated such. I also stated that President Obama would be a reincarnation of the Carter presidency and prove to be a man controlled  by circumstances more than he controlled circumstances.

Between my two perceptions of the Parties, I knew the G.O.P. would be back. However, I never expected them to comeback quicker than any other time in American political history. Sadly, I cannot say that this record comeback was to my Party’s credit. It was solely due to the failure of Democrats. They performed in a way that demonstrated everything that people hate about politics. When it comes to partisanship, they defined it. When it came to pork, they stuffed their faces. On the issue of spending, one would have to work really hard to try to spend more than they have in just 20 short months. On negative issue, after negative issue, Democrats exaggerated the negatives. The closed door deals, the underhanded tactics, the passage of bills they did not read, the overreach of government, corruption, whatever people disliked about government and politics, Democrats did.

In the meantime, the G.O.P. had little chance to give the public reason to vote for them and offered little reason to do so either. What they did do though, was oppose all that Democrats did and all that the public disliked. For that reason, they were the beneficiaries of a protest vote against Democrats, not necessarily a vote for Republicans.

That is why I have penned the midterms of 2010 the Republican Rejuvenation. In 1994, the wave that swept Republicans into power was accurately called the Republican Revolution. And it was a revolution. People had approved of the ideas and direction that the G.O.P. was offering. But this time, the people are not that confident. So while this election has indeed rejuvenated the G.O.P., the rise back to power they have experienced is an opportunity, not a victory. It is a chance that is theirs to blow, or take advantage of.

It ‘s a chance to show leadership and prove that they understand that the leadership they must provide is that which leads us to a limited government that stays out of our lives, spends less of our money and more accurately reflects that which it was intended to when it was founded.

So now that the chance to prove ourselves is upon us, how do we as Republicans take advantage of the opportunity?

First; we must not act like Democrats. We must not be hypocrites and implement the same legislative tactics and sleights of hands that we denounced Democrats for using to pass legislation. Second; we must not approve increased spending which increases the overall federal budget and need to reduce spending and the deficit. Third; we must follow through on our promises and cut the size of government and repeal Obamacare and replace it, not with a more government, but rather a package of changes which help make healthcare more affordable through the free market, not through a behemoth new federal bureaucracy.

But this is not enough. Republicans must go the extra mile and prove that they have not only learned the ideological lessons which teach us that we can not compromise on big spending and big government, but that we also want less government when it comes to the personal lives of individual Americans. We must show that when we discuss less regulation, we also mean less regulation of the people and their personal lives. And beyond proving that we have learned our ideological lessons we must appeal to the nonpartisan nature of the average American and prove that we have learned how to provide leadership that is for country , not Party.

It is this cause which I feel the G.O.P. must act upon first.

When President Obama was elected, he proved himself to be quite partisan. It took him 18 months to meet one on one with Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. It took him a year to start discussing healthcare reform with Republicans. He has recently stated that Republicans can join with Democrats but have sit in the back and described the loyal opposition as “our enemy“.. These are not the acts and words of a leader who wants to cross the aisle and deal with all Americans or hear all opinions. The American people are tired of partisan leadership and partisan gridlock. That is why with this new opportunity at hand, Republicans must show that they understand when partisanship and politics must stop and productivity and progress must start.

To do so, I call upon the new Republican majority to reach out to the Democrat minority and our President. Reach out to them, one on one and say. “let’s start the new Congress right. Let’s start it off on a productive note and let’s answer this question. What do we agree upon?”

I want the Republican leadership to find out what Democrats and Republicans can do together in the first 100 days and start off on the right foot. Let us change the tone in Washington that the American working class hates about the political class.

While there are priorities which the G.O.P. will have a responsibility to address with haste, certain national priorities and commitments they campaigned on, at the same time, there must be some significant issues which the left and the right can agree on. Let us find out what they are and act upon them, now, not later.

This new day in politics must produce a new way in politics. A way that unites more than divides and lifts us up as nation more than weighs us down. In this new day, Republicans have a chance to say “no” to what needs to be rejected, but the responsibility to produce that which should be said “yes” to. The opportunity we have been handed must be used to demonstrate that we are deserving of the peoples vote and that when applied to government properly, the core Republicans principles we stand for, are key to the formulation of the best policies for the American people. This opportunity we have is nothing to gloat about. We have no right to gloat. We did not earn this victory in 2010, we simply were the beneficiary of the Democrat’s losses. But if we do what is right, now, we can truly be deserving of votes later.

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What To Look For In The Early Election Returns

Bookmark and Share    For those of you who find yourselves viewing election returns with the same type of intensity that most watch the Super Bowl with, POLITICS 24/7  previously offered a comprehensive election night analysis and schedule along with projections. It seems to have been quite popular and so  for those who are most anxious, POLITICS 24/7 now focuses in on the earliest returns and what they are likely to tell us about how the rest of the night will shape up.

The very first returns that have the chance of being reported on will come out of Indiana and Kentucky. Here, parts of the state close their polls at 6:00 pm EST. As a result, it is possible for some media outlets to report the results of some of the first House races. But it is also possible, in fact likely, that the results in a few of those congressional districts where the polls do close, will be too close to call.

6:00 pm

But sometime between 6:00 and 7:00 pm look at Indiana-2 and 9, and Kentucky-3 and 6.

In Indiana’s 9th CD, a loss by incumbent Democrat Baron Hill will be a sign that Republicans are indeed on track to take the House and see significant gains across the board.

If the races in Indiana‘s 2nd district and Kentucky’s 3rd, are too close to call, rest assured that that this will indeed be a wave election. But if Democrat incumbents Joe Donnelly and John Yarmuth actually lose, to their Republican opponents, Jackie Walorski and Todd Lally, you can take it as a sign that the 2010 midterms are going to be a tsunami that will produce historic gains for the Republicans that approach 70 seats.

 

 

7:00 pm

After 7:00 pm EST, the races that will act as barometers and need to be watched include:

 Kentucky’s Senate race, South Carolina-5, Florida-8 & 22, Georgia-8 & 12, Virginia-5 & 11.

The GOP will be on track for 50 or more seats with Republicans wins in the Kentucky Senate race with Rand Paul, in addition to the following House races;

South Carolina-5 (Mick Mulvaney-R over John Spratt-D), Florida-8 (Daniel Webster-R over Allen Grayson-D), Florida-22 (Allen West-R over Ron Klein-D), Georgia-8 (Austin Scott-R over Jim Marshall-D) and, Virginia-5 (Robert Hurt over Tom Perriello-D)

While those wins will help verify that the G.O.P. is on track, the following results between 7 and 8 O’clock will be signs that Democrats are about to be crushed worse than expected;

Georgia-12 (Ray McKinney-R over John Barrow-D) and Virginia-11 (David McKinley-R over Mike Oliviero-D)

7:30 pm

Between 7:30 and 8:00 pm, the results to look at will come out West Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina.

Wins by John Kasich in Ohio’s gubernatorial race and Ohio’s 1st CD (Steve Chabot-R over Steve Driehaus-D) will show that the G.O.P. is on track and that trends are holding. But the races that will indicate that the Republican wave may bigger than anyone anticipates will come from West Virginia’s race for U.S. Senate and the following House races;

 WV-1, WV-3, NC-11 and OH-6

Any combination of two or more wins in these races will point to Republican gains in the House that will exceed 62 seats and if John Raese pulls it out and beats back popular Democrats Governor Joe Mancin for Senate in West Virginia, the G.O.P. will have the potential of taking control of the United States Senate.

8:00 pm

After the 8 o’clock hour, the outcome of the 2010 midterm will begin to be set in stone.

News out of Illinois of Republican pickups in the Senate by Kirk and the statehouse by Brady, will keep everything track in still make it possible for Republicans to take control of the United States Senate. From Pennsylvania, word of Pat Toomey defeating Joe SaysTax will be further evidence of the trend holding. Of course something else to watch for in these wins, will be the margins of victory. If any of these races produce leads of 5 or more percent, that will help prove that polling models are inaccurate and were unable to detect the undercurrent of voter sentiments. A sure sign that things will be worse off for Democrats than anyone anticipate, would be a Republican win over Democrat Patrick Duval in the race for Governor of Massachusetts.

The House races to look at here will be:

Connecticut-5, Pennsylvania-3 and11, NH 1, Illinois-14, and Mississippi-4

A majority of Republicans here are keeping the G.O.P on track for a big night. But if it is going to be a really big night for Republicans they will be winning the following races:

Pennsylvania-8 (Michael Fitzpatrick-R over Patrick Murphy-D), New Jersey-3, (Jon Runyan-R over John Adler-D)

Democrat losses of these two seats will be a sign that the anti-Democrat sentiments are seeping into some of the bluest states in one of the bluest regions of the country. Other such races include:

 Massachusetts-10, Illinois-17 and, Missouri-4

 And two seats that Democrats losses would mean that they are going to be dead in the water  would be:

New Jersey 6 and 12

Here Democrats Frank Pallone and Rush Holt are seemingly safe seats, but there are rumblings that could prove them not to be safe for big government, big spending liberals anymore.  That and extremely hard fought races by their Republican opponents Anna Little and Scott Sipprele makes these races worth watching.  Pallone and Holt may not lose but if they have a margin of victory that is less than 6 or 7 percent, Democrats will be living in fear from now to 2012.

 But aside from these races, keep your eyes out for the returns in

Massachusetts’ 4th CD and Michigan’ 15th

If long serving John Dingel goes down in Michigan, Democrats better hold on for a tougher ride than they expected, but if Barney Frank loses to Republican Sean Bielat in MA-4, Republicans may be on their way to taking 70 seats.

Defeating Barney Frank may be unlikely, but after Republican Scott Brown was elected to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate and a strong race by Sean Bielat, if there are going to be any miracles on election night, they will take place here in the Bay State.

9:00 pm

As the 9 o’clock hour rolls out look for the House to be officially declared to have changed hands and gone to Republican control. But during this hour, some of the House races that will give a hint as to the size of their majority, are;

Louisiana-2, Minnesota-1 & 8, Michigan-15, NY-2, 13, 19, 24, Rhode Island and Wisconsin 13

While many other seats are going to fall to Republicans after 9 o’clock, especially in New York, Colorado and Wisconsin and Michigan, of the seats mentioned above, if Democrats who are likely to win in these districts, lose any combination of 4 or more, Republicans are looking at House gains approaching 70 seats

10:00 pm

Long before this hour, we should have established that the House has gone to Republicans but we should also have a good idea on how the rest of the chips will fall. I anticipate that after this hour, the balance of power in the Senate will come down to California and Washington where Boxer and Murphy are at risk (Murphy more so than Boxer), and Alaska where write-n ballots will drag out the time it takes to declare Joe Miller the winner.

Sharon Angle is likely to win in Nevada but as for this race, look for the early numbers that come out of Clark County.

Clark County is the home of Las Vegas and most of the state’s population. Clark County is overwhelmingly Democrat, but it is the only part of the state that is. If returns out of Clark County are showing Harry Reid with a lead over Angle that is not higher than 8%, Harry Reid will have lost his bid for reelection.

Other races of special interest throughout the night will be Louisiana-2 where incumbent Joseph Cao is likely to lose to Democrat Cedric Richmond.  If Cao wins, this will be a sign that Democrats are underperforming among their base and minorities musch worse than anyone thought possible.  The same will be able to be said if Democrat Incumbent Loretta Sanchez loses to Republican Van Tran in California’s 47th congressional district. 

Also of interest will be Hawaii’s at-large seat in Congress and race for Governor.  Republicans have a decent but unlikely chance of keeping Charles Djou in office but an even less likely chance of keeping its statehouse in Republican hands aginst popular retiring Congressman Neil Abercrombie.

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POLITICS 24/7’s 2010 Election Night Schedule, Projections & Analysis

Bookmark and Share     In these closing days of the midterm elections, Democrats have been unable to do anything to stop the hemorrhaging of support that continues to drain away from them. At the same time, the wind behind the backs of the G.O.P. continues to build and with no resistance in sight, the momentum for Republican electoral victories is only strengthening. Two weeks ago, I feared that Republicans had peaked in the polls. That would have been a premature occurrence and not boded well. But since then, as GOP candidates continue to rise in the polls, it is clear that Republicans did not peak too early. All indications are that the momentum is still behind them and building. As such, history shows that many seats which are close enough to be considered tossups and those that have Democrats holding only slight leads, are more likely to fall into Republican hands then Democrat hands.

In addition to that and the massive swing of Independent and women voters to Republicans from Democrats, I believe that the anti-Democrat sentiment is currently running so unusually strong and deep that traditional polling models are not able to accurately enough read the depth of support for Republican candidates that exists out there. At least not as accurately as they normally can be.

The polls most reflective of final election results are those that are taken among people who are considered likely voters. But this year, there exists a group of voters which can not yet be identified by existing polling models. They fall in neither the category of “first time voters” or “likely voters”. It is the segment of the electorate which is also the most angry and the most likely to vote against Democrats. They are voters who became fed up with government as much as 5 to10 years ago and tuned out and stopped voting. But now, they have become so angered that they have come out of inactivity and are going to be some of the first people to cast their ballots against Democrats on Election Day. Existing polls are unable to account for this demographic and are allowing for results that do not contain the influence of these voters.

It is this unseen undercurrent of Republican support which I believe is going to help tip tossup races in favor of G.O.P. challengers and produce a number of surprises in races that are leaning toward Democrats. For instance, while I admit that Barbara Boxer is likely to be reelected, I have a feeling that Republican Carly Fiorna is poised to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the night and throw Boxer into a long overdue retirement from politics. The same undercurrent that I believe may sweep Fiorna into the Senate, will probably also be sweeping Republicans Dino Rossi of Washington and, I am going out on a limb by saying West Virginia’s John Raese, also to victory.

On the Senate side I believe that Republicans establish majority control by winning in:

Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia.

West Virginia and Washington are going to be too close for comfort though, and these results may not be official for quite a while, especially in Washington where mail in ballots are going to make recounts a tedious and time consuming process.

As for Alaska, this will probably be the very last race to be declared and won’t be done on Tuesday. Expect a careful and methodical recount of tons of write-in votes and court challenges. In the case of Delaware, I am probably one of the few people who is still not writing-off the ability for Christine O’Donnell and the voters of Delaware to make the professional pundits, political establishment and the media, look stupid, by pulling off an unlikely surprise upset victory over Democrat Chris Coons.

So while I an sure that  the G.O.P. will have a minimum net gain of 8 seats in the Senate, I believe that some combination of wins in Washington, West Virginia and/or California, will give Republicans control of the Senate with a total of 51 to 49 seats. But the very real possibility of  a 50/50 tie does actually exist here. If that happens, expect the GOP to end up taking control at some point during the course of the new year as at least one Democrat or two switch Parties ahead of their 2012 reelection bids in an attempt to avoid becoming  a casualty when President Obama is on the top of the liberal ticket.

On the House side, I expect Republicans to increase their existing numbers by a minimum of 58 districts that are currently held by Democrats, but project that they actually win 62 seats and have a good chance to gain as many as 68. This would bring Republicans from the current number of 178, to anywhere from 240 to 246 House seats. Such numbers would give the G.O.P. one of its largest majorities since 1946.

Many may believe that these figures are too high. As a skeptic, under normal conditions, I might believe so too. However, even though I am typically a pessimist and even though I usually prefer to lower expectations in politics, I am convinced that my projections are not exaggerated or overly optimistic and I believe there to be a greater chance for the higher estimate to come to fruition than there is for my lower estimate.

But the proof will be in the pudding and no matter how much statistical data and fine tuning of local factors that I combine together to reach my projections, only each individual voter ultimately knows what they will do with their private ballot. And Lord only knows the variables that things like the weather will add to the mix.

But signs of the final results will reveal themselves early on in the evening of November 2nd.

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6:00 pm: Parts of Indiana and Kentucky;

Polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6:00 pm, but we may not hear any results until 7:00 PM when the rest of the polls in those states close  along with Virginia, Georgia, Vermont, South Carolina and parts of Florida.

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7:00 pm: Virginia, Georgia, Vermont, South Carolina, Parts of Florida, All of Indiana and Kentucky;

The hour between 7:00 and 8:00 pm may produce election results that provide us with a hint as to whether the 2010 midterm elections are going to be for Republicans a current, wave or tsunami.

South Carolina’s Niki Haley will hold on to the Governor’s mansion for Republicans but it is South Carolina’s 5th CD which may be one of the very first signs of just how an unusually large number of normaly safe Democrat seats and incumbents are about to fall like dominos. Here, if longtime incumbent John Spratt loses to Republican Mick Mulvaney, people like Michigan’s John Dingel and Massachusetts Barney Frank, better pull out the rosaries, find God, light a candle and say a few prayers because for the first time in their careers they will most definitely be vulnerable.

From Indiana, The GOP will gain a senate seat, replacing retiring Evan Bayh with Dan Coats and news that 8th and 9th district Republicans Larry Buschon and Todd Young defeat Democrat incumbents Trent Van Haaftern and Baron Hill will indicate that Republicans are on track to win 55 or more seats. Should they lose, the GOP will still be in line for at least 40 seats but significantly more than that may in fact not be realistic. In Indiana’s 2nd district, if returns are still too close to declare incumbent Democrat Congressman Joe Donnelly the winner, or if his Republican opponent Jackie Walorski beats him, do not be surprised by GOP gains of 60 or more seats.

In Florida, early indications that Republicans are on track for 40 or more seats will be seen in early returns that give the GOP wins in FL-2 with Republican Steve Sutherland, and in the 8th, where the unbridled liberalism of Allen Grayson, one of the most obnoxious and arrogant members of Congress, should be shut up and shot down by Republican Daniel Webster. But if the G.O.P. is going to be riding a tsunami to control of the House, Lt. Col. Allen West, my favorite candidate of all running for the House, will win in Fl-22, along with Republican Sandy Adams over Democrat Suzanne Kosmas in Fl-24.

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7:30 pm: West Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio

Races to look at as barometers between 6 and 8 pm include KY-3, where incumbent John Yarmuth should win by at least three or more percent. If his opponent, Todd Lally pulls off an unlikely win, this election will be a bigger landslide to the G.O.P. than anyone anticipated.

The same goes for KY-6 (Ben Chandler vs. Andy Barr), NC-2 (Bob Etherdige vs. Renee Elmers), VA- 5 (Tom Perriello vs. Robert Hurt), GA-12 (John Barrow vs. Raymond McKinney), OH-6 (Charlie Wilson vs. Bill Johnson), and WV-3 (Nick Rahall vs. Spike Maynard) and we should be getting news on SC-5 (John Spratt vs. Mick Mulvaney),

Perhaps the biggest news at this time will be the news that Rob Portman keeps Ohio’s senate in the Republican column and that John Kasich takes the Governor’s mansion away from incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland.  Kasich is anoother favorite candidate of mine in the 2010 midterm elections.  Like Marco Rubio, he is potential presidential material and no matter what a rising star on the national stage of conservativbe leadership.

At the hour of eight o’clock, the real dye will be cast.

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8:00 pm: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida CD’s 1 & 2, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas;

At this point in time, despite Linda McMahon and the Republican candidate for Governor losing their races in Connecticut, look for CT-5 (Chris Murphy vs. Sam Caligiuri), to switch and if CN-4 also falls, you will have further confirmation of the 2010 midterm elections being historic. During the eight o’clock hour, one of the most powerful indicators of just how big Republicans may win by, will play out dramatically in Mississippi’s 4th CD. If incumbent Blue Dog Democrats Gene Taylor goes down to Republican Steven Palazzo, President Obama might want to consider pulling a Charlie Crist and registering as an Independent because a loss by Taylor will mean that there is no place for Democrats to hide and no issue for them to hide behind.

Another race that could be indicative of the “big mo” behind the G.O.P. will be Maine’s 1st district where Democrat Chellie Pingree could be beaten by Republican Dean Scontras.

The state to produce the biggest switch to the G.O.P. this hour may be Pennsylvania where, Republicans Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey will take the statehouse and U.S. Senate and as many as 7 seats could go red. The five seats most likely to switch are PA-3 (Kathy Dahlkemper-D vs. Mike Kelly-R), PA-7 (Patrick Meehan-D vs. Bryan Lentz-R), PA-8 (Patrick Murphy-D vs. Michael Fitzpatrick-R), PA-10 (Chris Carney-D vs. Tom Marino-R), PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski vs. Lou Barletta).

The real kicker here will be the results of Massachusetts 4th district.  In order for these midterms elections to be a complete success Barney “Mac” Frank must be eliminated from public service.  Frank is a boil on the seat of government, a dangerous drain on federal integrity and resources, and a government official whose fingerprints are alover the housing market crisis and the subsequent economic coolapse that ensued.  His opponent Sean Bielat has made this the most competetive races Barney Frank has ever had  and proven himself to be an energetic, trustworthy leader for Massachusetts and fiscal responsibility in a limited government.  Bielat is not likely to win but he will come closer than anyone expects and as far as I am concerned, after the shocking election of Scott Brown to the the U.S. Senate, an election whicg created the trend of turning the political brown instead of red, I believe that potential for a an electoral riptide exists here and that Barney Frank could actually be carried away by the anti-establishment, anti-Democrat sentiment that swept Scott brown to victory.

In regards to the U.S. Senate, sometime between 8 and 8:30 we should be hearing that my favorite Senate candidate, Marco Rubio, has pummeled both Charlie “What Am I Now” Crist and Democrat Kendrick “I should have stayed in the House” Meek.

We should also hear that in addition to Joe “Says Tax” Sestak in Pennsylvania, we can say goodbye to Mr. Alexi Giannoulias, President Obama’s corrupt banker buddy and welcome his Republican opponent, Republican Mark Kirk, to the Senate from Illinois.

As far as the races for Governor go, after the 8:00 pm closures, in addition to Paul LePage taking Maine, Tom Corbet taking Pennsylvania, and Florida going to Rick Scott, the GOP will also increase the number of Governors in Illinois with Bill Brady.

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8:30 pm: Arkansas

At 8:30 pm, Arkansas closes the book on the 2010 midterms with a stinging and embarrassing defeat of Democrat Senator Blanche Lincoln and the flip of AR-2 from Democrat Joyce Elliot to Republican Tim Griffith.

A defeat of Democrats in AR-1 and 4 is not likely but possible. If they do fall to Republicans, this will be further evidence that we will be in the midst of a total shift in the tectonic plates of the political landscape.

Before 9:00 pm, we should already know that Nancy Pelosi’s tenure as majority leader is just a bad memory. But during the 9 o’clock hour, a flood of states will be delivering additional blows to Democrats.

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9:00 pm: Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

Between 9 and 10 pm, the G.O.P. will make big gains in the all important statehouses which will be instrumental in drawing preferential districts for the incumbent Party for the next decade and also in making big strides toward control of the United States Senate.

Republicans will pick up Governors in Kansas, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Wyoming, and have a good chance of taking Minnesota. Rhode Island’s gubernatorial leadership is likely to flip from Republican hands to Independent hands, but it is still somewhat of a tossup. And while I do not see us keeping Rhode Island, if by chance, Republican John Robitale defeats liberal Independent Lincoln Chafee and Liberal Democrat Frank Caprio, Democrats will need sedatives to get through the rest of the night because that will be indicative of a pending national whooping that will hit them so hard, FDR will feel it.

As for the Senate, say goodbye to Michael Bennet in Colorado, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.

House races to look at for signs of how substantial the night will be for Republicans, include; CO-7 (Permultter-D vs. Frazier), RI-1 (Cicilline-D vs. Loughlin-R), and especially NY-1 (Bishop-D vs. Altschuler-R), NY-13 (McMahon vs. Grimm-R), TX- 25 (Dagget-D vs. Campbell-R), and MN-8 (Oberstar vs. Cravaack). Any combination of three or more of these seats will be one of the final signs that Democrats are spiraling out of control in this election. From those states which wrap their voting up during this hour, at least 16 or 17 seats should switch from Democrats to Republicans. Some of the biggest gains are likely to come from New York where the GOP will pick at least 4 seats, (NY-1, 19, 20, and 29), but possibly as many as 6 with wins. A remarkable chance exists for Republicans to take back the 13th CD which is encompasses the Staten Island and Southwest Brooklyn section of New York City’s five boroughs. This seat has been the only one in which New York City sent a Republican to occupy. It was in Republican hands for decades but last year fell to Democrats after Congressman Vito Fossella received a DUI charge in Virginia and subsequently revealed that while he was away in Washington from his Staten Island family, he spent time with his mistress and illegitimate child in Virginia. The candidacy of Michael Grimm and the anti-Democrat environment we are in, makes this a good last chance to take this seat back.

The other New York race that is well worth watching is out on the Southern tip of Long Island where Tim Bishop, (D, NY-1) could find himself a victim of a trend that began on Long Island last November when one of its two counties was taken by surprise when Republican Ed Mangano came from nowhere to defeat a safe Democrat incumbent in a race that was largely seen as uncompetitive. Although that was Nassau County and NY-1 is in Suffolk County, there is not much that differentiates the one county from the other when it comes to political sentiments. In this congressional district, Republican Randy Altschuler is certainly giving incumbent Tim Bishop a run for his money and if there are going to be a lot of surprises on November 2nd, NY-1 is as a good a place as any.

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10:00 pm: Arizona, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Nevada, Utah

It may not be made official for an hour or so but the biggest news of the night will happen not long after the stroke of 10 when Sharon Angle embarrasses Democrats by taking down their Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid. Further embarrassment will include the ridiculously lopsided loss of Harry’s son Rory Reid, who is running for Governor of Nevada. Hopefully the Reid family will take the message and crawl back under the rock they emerged from.

In this same round of poll closings Iowa will give the GOP a statehouse pickup in Iowa. House seats to watch include AZ-7 where a win by real life rocket scientist, Republican Ruth McClung could defeat incumbent Raul Grijalva. McClung is not favored to win but if she did, it would be indicative of 2010 being much more than a Republican wave election. Other races which are suppose to remain in Democrats hands but could be upsetting the establishment are AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords-D vs. Jesse Kelly-R), ID-1 (Walt Minnick-D vs. Raul Labrador-R), IA-3 (Boswell-D vs. Brad Zaun-R) NV-3 (Titus-D vs. Heck-R), ND-At Large (Pomeroy-D vs. Berg-R), and UT-2 (Matheson-D vs. Morgan Phipot-R).

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11:00 pm: California, Washington and Oregon;

In this round of poll closings, the GOP will simply be putting the icing on the cake House, but could determine whether or not they take control of the Senate.

In California, Republicans may very well control in Sacramento with the defeat of Meg Whitman to Jerry Brown and while only a major last minute development can save her, Carly Fiorina will in my opinion fare far better and ultimately pack Boxer up with a victory of a percent or less.

Washington state is likely to produce an upset by sending Republican Dino Rossi to Washington and retiring incumbent Patty Murray by another slim margin of victory, but mail in ballots will prevent this from being confirmed for days, at least.

The most interesting House race to be watched will be in California where Democrat Loretta Sanchez is in the tightest race of her nearly two decade in office as she tries to beat off a challenge Van Tran. Vietnamese Tran, a California state legislator, is unifying the significant 15% of the district populations which is Vietnamese, along with a coalition of Independent Hispanics, African-Americans and Caucasians, along with a sizeable Republican vote. Together, these groups are countering the overwhelming 69% Hispanic makeup of the district. But that is a pretty solid voting bloc and if Van Tran can pull this one off, it will in large part be due to the strong undercurrent that is sweeping Democrats away. Sanchez should win this election the surprise factor has great promise in CA-47.

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12:00 pm: Alaska, Hawaii

At this point, Republicans may be needing a victory by Joe Miller to take control of the Senate. But despite losing the GOP nomination in Alaska, Miller’s closets opponent in the race, Lisa Murkowski, is still a Republican and if her outside chance of successful write-in candidacy comes true, she is still likely to caucus with Republicans and in that regards, accomplish the same goal as far as who will control the Senate. Either way, expect Alaska’s results to no be made official for quite a while.

In Hawaii, CD-1 will be an attention grabber. Here, Republican Charles Djou recently won the seat in a special election. Yet observers favor his opponent, Democrat Colleen Hanabusa to take this seat back for Democrats. I think Djou can keep it, albeit by a small margin, but by a majority nonetheless. As for the governor’s race in Hawaii, while Republican Duke Aiona has made this race a tossup between popular retiring Congressman Neil Abercrombie, I fear Abercrombie is just to popular to defeat in Hawaii. The fact that Aiona has made this race as close as it is, is a tremendous credit to him, but in the end, I see Republicans losing the hold they had on the Hawaii statehouse with retiring Republican Governor Linda Lingle, to Neil Abercrombie.

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No matter what, Republicans will be back in a position of power that will make it at the very least alter the Obama agenda and make it impossible for the President and Democrats to try to circumvent them. If the GOP happens to take control of both the Senate and the House, you can rest assured that President Obama is going to be a different President than he has been over these past 22or so months. Will he abandon his agenda and moderate in order to work with Congress or will he stick to his guns and risk an endless stream of rejection from Congress? When Bill Clinton was faced with the Republican Revolution of 1994, he was reduced to having to explain to a reporter how he would be relevant to the political process during the second half of his term.

Now, with the Republican Rejuvenation of 2010, President Obama may be faced with the same need to prove how relevant he will be. This will certainly be the case if Republicans can exploit the small chance of taking over the senate as well as the House. But Bill Clinton was able to prove that he was indeed relevant. He began to pay attention to the pulse of the people and began working with the G.O.P. instead of constantly working against them. This will be harder for President Obama to do though. The has publicly told Republicans to sit on the back of the bus and called Republicans “the enemy”. Still, unless President Obama wants to endorse gridlock and seek to get reelected by claiming that the GOP is still in the way of his agenda which has proven to be a failure, he will be forced to moderate. How he reacts to the new political in America will be quite interesting. If he is the politically charismatic genius that some claim, he could turn things around and resurrect himself among mainstream and moderate America and the powerful Independent vote.

As for Republicans, it must be remembered that they are not winning because people like, trust or want them. They are skeptical of the GOP and not fully convinced that they understand that the people do not want to compromise on the issues of big government, big spending and further encroachment of our constitutional rights. This means that Republicans must be unafraid of saying “no” to the President. They must not backtrack on attempts to repeal government healthcare, cut the size, scope and cost of government or cave in to political correctness and fail to live up to the promises made in 2010.

The final political effect of the 2010 election results will be seen in the 2012 race for President a contest that will begin on the Republican side on Wednesday November 3rd. On the Democrat side it may not begin start up quite as fast. President Obama will be spending some time outside of the country in the days to follow the election. And when he returns home he will be making every single policy decision with 2012 in mind and others. But others like Hillary Clinton may also be doing the same. People like her might feel that the devastating losses that Democrats will have suffered, will require them to save the Party from President Obama and the nation from his policies. Such thinking could be behind the resignation from her position as Secretary of State some time during the beginning of 2011.

 

   GOPElephantRight.jpg GOP Elephant Right image by kempiteStars01.gif picture by kempiteGOPElephantLeft.jpg GOP Elephant Left image by kempite

Republican House Pickups

Results bewtween 6:00 pm and 8:00 pm

  • Indiana 8                – Larry Buschon over Trent Van Haaften
  • Indiana 9                – Todd Young over Baron Hill
  • Florida 2                 – Steve Sutherland over Allen Boyd
  • Florida 8                 – Daniel Webster over Allen Grayson
  • Florida 22               – Allen West over Ron Klein
  • Florida 24               – Sandy Adams over Suzanne Kosmas
  • Virginia 2                – Scott Rigell over Glenn Nye
  • Virginia 5                – Robert Hurt over Tom Perriello
  • South Carolina 5  –  Mick Mulvaney over John  Spratt
  • Georgia 2                 – Mike Keown over Sanford Bishop
  • Georgia 8                 – Austin Scott over Jim Marshall
  • Ohio 1                        – Steve Chabot over Steve Driehaus
  • Ohio 15                     – Steve Stivers over Mary Jo Kilroy
  • Ohio 16                     – Jim Rannaci over John Boccieri
  • Ohio 18                     – Bob Gibbs over Zach Space
  • North Carolina 8  – Harold Johnson over Larry Kissel
  • West Virginia 1      – David McKinley over Mike Oliverio

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

**indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Georgia 12               – Raymond McKinney over John Barrow**
  • Indiana 2                  – Jackie Walorski over Joe Donnelly**
  • Kentucky 3              – Todd Lally over John Yarmuth
  • Kentucky 6              – Andy Barr over Ben Chandler
  • Virginia 9                 – Morgan Griffith over Rick Boucher
  • Virginia 11               – Keith Fimian over Gerry Connolly
  • Ohio 6                        – Bill Johnson over Charlie Wilson**
  • West Virginia 3      – Spiike Maynard over Nick Rahall
  • North Carolina 11   – Jeff Miller over Heath Schuler

 

Results bewtween 8:00 pm and 9:00 pm

  • Connecticut 4           – Dan Dibecella over Jim Hines 
  • Connecticut 5           – Sam Caliguiri over Chris Murphy
  • Illinois 11                   – Asam Kinzinger over Debbie Halvarson
  • Illinois 14                   – Randy Huttgren over Bill Foster
  • Illinois 17                  – Bobby Schilling over Ohil Hare
  • Maryland 1                – Andy Harris over Frank Kratovil
  • Massachusetts 10   -Jeff Perry over Bill Keating
  • New Hampshire 1   – Frank Guinta over Carol Shea Porter
  • New Hampshire 2   – Charlie Bass over Ann McLane Kuster
  • New Jersey 3            – Jon Runyan over John Adler
  • Pennsylvania 3        – Mike Kelly over Kethy Dahlkemper
  • Pennsylvania 7        – Bryan Lentz over Patrick Meehan
  • Pennsylvania 8        – Michael Ftzpatrick  over  Patrick Murphy
  • Pennsylvania 10     – Tom Marino over Chris Carney
  • Pennsylvania 11      – Lou Barletta over Paul Kanjorski
  • Tennessee 4               – Scott DeJarlas over Lincoln Davis
  • Tennessee 6              – Diane Black over Brett Carter
  • Tennessee 8              – Stephen Fincher over Roy Herron
  • Texas 17                     – Bill Flores over Chet Edwards
  • Florida 2                    – Steve Sutherland over Allen Boyd
  • Arkansas 1                – Rick Crawford over Chad Causey
  • Arkansas 2               –  Tim Griffin over Joyce Elliot

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Alabama 2                         – Martha Roby over Bobby Bright **
  • Massachusetts 4             – Sean Bielat over Barney Frank **
  • Mississippi 4                    – Steven Palazzo over Gene Taylor **
  • New Jersey 6                   – Anna Little over Frank Pallone **
  • New Jersey 12                 – Scott Sipprele over Rush Holt ** 
  • Pennsylvania 4               – Keith Rothfus over Jason Altmire **
  • Pennsylvania 12            – Tim Burns over Mark Critz **
  • Texas 15                           – Eddie Zamora over Ruben Hinjosa
  • Texas 25                          – Donna Campbell over Lloyd Doggett **

 

Results bewtween 9:00 pm and 10:00 pm

  • Colorado 3                  – Scott Tipton over John Salazar
  • Colorado 4                  – Cory Gardner over Betsy Markey
  • Louisaina 3                 – Jeff Landry over Ravi Sangisetty
  • Kansas 3                       – Kevin Yoder over Stephene Moore
  • Michigan 1                   – Dan Banishek over Gary McDowell
  • Michigan 7                  – Tim Walberg over Mark Schauer
  • New York 19              – Nan Hayworth over John Hall
  • New York 20             – Chris Gibson over Scott Murphy
  • New York 23             – Matt Doheny over Bill Owens
  • New York 29             – Tom Reed over Matt Zeller
  • New Mexico 2           – Harry Teague over Steve pearce
  • South Dakota -AL    – Kristi Noem over Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin
  • Texas 23                     – Quico Canseco over Ciro Rodrigues
  • Wisconsin 7              – Sean Duffy over Julie Lassa
  • Wisconsin 8              – Reid Ribble over Steve Kagen

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

  **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Colorado 7                 – Ryan Frazier over Ed Perlmutter**
  • Louisiana 2        – *Cao over Richmond **~(see note below)
  • Minnesota 1               – Randy Demmer over Tim Walz
  • Minnesota 7              –  Lee Byberg over Collin Peterson
  • Minnesota 8               – Chip Cravaack over Jim Oberstar**
  • Michigan 15               – Rob Steele over John Dingel**
  • New York 2                – John Gomez over Steve Israel**
  • New York 13             – Michael Grimm over Michael McMahon**
  • New York 24             – Richard Hanna over Michael Arcuri
  • New York 25             – Anne Marie Buerkle over Dan Maffei
  • New York 27             – Leonard Roberts over Brian Higgins
  • New Mexico 3           – Tom Mullins over Ben Ray Lujan
  • Rhode Island             – John Loughlin over David Cicilline**
  • Wisconsin 13             – Dan Kapanke over Ron Kind**

 

Results between 10:00 pm and 11:00 pm

  • Arizona 1                               – Paul Gosar over Ann Kirkpatrick
  • Arizona 5                              – David Schwiekert over Harry Mitchell
  • Arizona 8                              – Jesse Kelly over Gabrielle Giffords **
  • Idaho 1                                   – Raul Labrador over Walt Minnick
  • North Dakota -AL              – Rick Berg over Earl Pomeroy
  • Nevada 3                               – Joe Heck over Dina Titus

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Arizona 7                              – Ruth McClung over Raul Girjalva **
  • Iowa 3                                    – Brad Zaun over Leonard Boswell
  • Utah 2                                    – Morgan Philpot over Jim Mathison

 

Results between 11:00 pm and 12:00 am

  • California 11             – David Harmer over Jerry McNerny   
  • California 20            – Andy Vidak over Jim Costa
  • Washington 3          – Denny Heck over Jamie Herrera

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • California 18                   – Mike Berryhill over Dennis Cardoza
  • California 47                  – Van Tran over Lorretta Sanchez**
  • Washington 2                 – John Koster over Rick Larsen**
  • Washington 9                 – Dick Muri over Adam Smith
  • Oregon 4                          – Art Robinson over Peter DeFazio
  • Oregon 5                         – Scott Brunn over Kurt Schrader**

 

Results after 12:00 am

  • Hawaii 1                 – Charles Djou over Colleen Hanabusa
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ATTN: DEMOCRATS; “Put Your Weapons Down, And Your Hands Up!”

Bookmark and Share    It’s said that  history has a way of repeating itself.   After seeing the results of the 2009 elections, Republican 2008 Election Victoriesit  looks like it is doing so right now.  Before the wheels started falling off the Republican bandwagon in 2006, Republicans suffered big defeats in both Virginia, and New Jersey, in 2005. Those losses were a sign of things to come and they preceded the GOP’s loss of seats in the US Senate and their loss of the majority and their control of the House of Representatives.

  In 2009, it is the Democrats who, whether they realize it or not, are seeing the wheels of their bandwagon, begin to fall off.  

Republican racked up victories all over the nation. In the East, they did particularly well. They won more seats in the in Virginia’s House of Delegates and also saw statewide victories for the Republican Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General candidates. To make that victory sweeter, Republican Governor-Elect Bob McConnell’s almost 18% lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds, helped Republicans pick up 4, and possibly 5, more seats in the Virginia House of Delegates.  

Corzine ConcedesHeading North, the Democrat stronghold of The Garden State saw New Jersey voters give Democrat Governor, Jon Corzine the state‘s one finger salute and offer him a hearty toodaloo.

Having ruled over a four year term that saw nothing but sweetheart deals for unions, new and higher taxes, higher tolls, higher costs of living, more state mandates and fewer and fewer jobs Corzine, even “The Messiah, himself, could not resuscitate the that dead donkey. Although in the darkest of blue New Jersey, where politics is a crime and every other voter has a patronage position, the Democrats did put up a good fight and made it a much closer race than in Virginia. 

In his victory speech, Corzine’s Republican rival, Chris Christie eluded to the havoc that Corzine wreaked on New Jersey by recounting the story he was told by a man that he met in Tinton Falls, NJ, earlier in the day. Christie explained that the man came up to him with teary eyes, grabbed his hand and told Christie that he is a small business owner with a wife and children. The man then asked that Christie do all that he can to win, because as the man said “if you don‘t win, I wont be able to afford to live here anymore. He continued, please win this election because I want my family to still be living in New Jersey four years from now. 

Christie Wins New JerseyChristie wasn’t exactly the best candidate and he was actually uninspiring. I was, and am, his biggest critic. I am distrustful of Christie. I believe he may shy away from the conservative principles that make Republicans Republicans. His campaign lacked any cohesive, believable message and was devoid of any detail. Yet none of that stopped people from voting for him. 42% of all those who did push the button for Christie told pollsters that their vote was more a gesture against Jon Corzine than an indication of support for Christie. Yet that did not stop voters from opposing President Obama’s chosen candidate. Even he, who won New Jersey by 15% in 2008, couldn’t help Corzine who he campaigned an unusually inordinaoate amount of time for. President Obama traveled to New Jersey three times and constantly referred to Corzine as the man who was his “best friend” when they were “in the senate together”. Well while the President considered him best friend, many——–a large majority——-of voters considered him public enemy number one. 

Corzine wasn’t alone though. Democrat incumbents, allover, were thrown out of office. North of New Jersey, New Yorkers in Westchester County surprisingly and resoundingly threw long time Democrat County Executive Andy Spano out of office. Unbeknownst to many before the election, this race ended up not even being very competitive. Republican Rob Astorino blew Spano out of the County with 58% of the vote to Spano’s 42%. The race was described by many as an “stunning upset victory” for Republicans and Rob Astorino. 

Out on New York’s Long Island, Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi finds himself sweating out a race that is too close to call. With all the precincts in, Democrat Suozzi is ahead of Republican challenger Edward Mangano by 237 votes. Currently the results stand at; Conservative Party candidate Steve Hansen with 4% and 9,552 votes, Tom Suozzi with 48%, and Republican Ed Managano also at 48% but with 117,874 votes to Suozzi’s 118,111 votes. 

This was not suppose to be. 

What accounted for this sudden reversal of fortunes? 

After President Obama was swept into office on “hope” and “change”, what is making voters hope for change yet again? 

Well I’ll let you in on a little secret. Voters want a change from the damaging effects of a radical leftwing agenda. Yeah, that’s right!…..Radical leftwing. 

You know how liberals love to scream about how Republicans are losing support and are going to go extinct because they are being taken over by the religious radicals and radical right? Well that has been supposedly happening since the 60’s. Yet yesterday, many Republicans approached the 60% mark in their defeat of Democrats. What liberals crying about extremism don’t understand is that they, as usual, are hypocrites. They are the extremists who have a radical agenda that they try to ram it down the throats of every man, woman and child. 

In less than one year, the liberal regime in Washington, DC has taken over private industry, ran with a tax on the air that we breathe, tripled our deficit and moved to centralize all power in America within the federal government. But perhaps most telling of all is an example of history repeating itself in the area of healthcare. 

Early in 1994, Hillary and B.J. Clinton tried to revolutionize healthcare. The President’s wife wrote a healthcare that was less than half the size of the current revolutionary government run health management and insurance bill. Later that year, Democrats lost control of Governor’s mansions, state legislators, the House of Representatives and the United States of Senate. 

Do you see a connection? 

Under President Obama, the nation has seen our government lurch so far to the left that the electorate has whiplash. As a society, we do not generally like pain and we tend to react negatively to those who cause us pain. Hence, the punch in the eye that voters gave Democrats yesterday. 

Democrats need to take some of their own voice and not be the hypocrites that they always tend to be. If they hope to avoid any further hemorrhaging of their loss of power, they need put a tourniquet on. They need to put the breaks on their 90 mile per hour trace down the road on the left. Pearl Buck once said “One faces the future with one’s past”. Clearly, Democrats are not acknowledging their past. They aren’t even acknowledging the recent. They even deny yesterday. 

A Democrat contacted me yesterday and said sarcastically said “New York 23.…..hmmmmm…..sweet”. 

Well WTF? Are liberals living in such blatant denial that they are trying to tell us that the loss of a third party candidate in one congressional district means more concerning Republicans than the loss of multiple governors, county executive, legislative seats, district attorneys and local councils do to Democrats? Are they serious!? 

Actually they are. 

According to White House spokesman Robert Gibbs, yesterday’s elections had no reflection on the President. Huh!…no reflection on the President? President Obama tied himself at the hip to Jon Corzine. Jon Corzine turned the election into a total referendum on the President and his agenda. Soon to be former Governor Corzine ran around saying that the problems of New Jersey are a result of trickle down economics and George Bush Republican policies. George Bush has not been in office for almost a year now and Democrats are still running against him. And by the way, What supply side economic practices has New Jersey been busy implementing? Republicans have not been in charge of New Jersey for over a dozen years. 

Wake up! After a dozen years, of giverning New Jersey, you own the havoc you created!!!! 

Yesterday certainly was a slap in the face, not so much to the President, as it was to his policies and that if his comrades, Speaker N. P. Pelosi and Majority Leader H. M. Reid. 

Cap-and-Trade, The G.M. takeover, massive spending of epic proportions, government run insurance and health management—–all of this, is extreme. Quite extreme. And when you throw in such factors as the liberal leaderships flagrant disregard for ethics, especially as it pertains to people like Chairman of the Ways and Committee, Charlie Rangel and add a pay raise for Congress, a questionable foreign policy that has seen the President apologize for America on foreign soil and an economy that seemingly losses more and more jobs and inevitably forces taxes to rise, what you have is an electorate that, yesterday,  said to Democrats——— “Put your weapons down, step back and place your hands up”. 

Will liberals listen? Apparently not. Today they are saying that the election results which swept Republicans into office, in some of the most unlikeliest of places, had nothing to do with the President and democrat policies. 

These people really are stupid and they won’t learn until it is too late. 

A closer look at what was behind the 2009 election results reveals many things that I have stressed previously. Previously I wrote on how “Senior Citizens Are Leading The Way To Change You Can Believe In”. Yesterday, the 55 and more percent plurality of senior citizens who went Republican had a crucial effect in places like New Jersey and Virginia and New York. So Democrats can write off Florida come 2010. On September 1st, I wrote “President Obama’s Ratings Are Evidence That Things Are Spiraling Out Of Control”.   Back then I wrote; 

“Among Democrats, support for the President has dropped as much as 13% in just one month.. Those who call themselves liberals had nearly unanimous support for President Obama with 95% of all liberals on his side in July. Now, as we get in to the swing of September, even self proclaimed and proud liberals are distancing themselves from the President as 9% of them turn their backs on him, in just one month’s time.” 

“As for African-Americans, their support of the President was at a shrinking 83% in July but now stands at 74% as September begins. Another 9% drop in support in as little as one month.” 

“As for one group whose unusually high voter turnout last November helped to cinch the election for Barack Obama, those between 18 and 29 years of age are fleeing from their initial pro-Obama views. A whopping 18% of those in the 18 to 29 age bracket have jumped ship in just this last month. In July their support for the President stood at 59%. As August passes it now stands at 41%”. 

These are not the words of a genius. Any casual observer can see the trend. Yesterday’s election simply confirmed it. It sure confirmed it for those of us willing to accept the facts. Yet today, the White House still claims that the results of yesterday’s elections have no reflection on the President. “Well mirror, mirror on the wall. Whose the silliest of us all”? 

I’m sure that not every Democrat is playing quite as stupid as Pres. B.H. Obama, Leader N.P. Pelosi and Majority Leader H. M. Reid. Some of them may see the writing on the wall and think twice before they pass the incredible government takeover of health care and insurance. Some Democrats may realize that every single page of the almost 2,000 page socialist health care manifesto contains measure that will be explosive and derail the aspirations of many incumbent Democrats in 2010. 

After all, another conclusion reached in yesterday’s election was that the people do not like incumbents and as the majority party in control, most incumbents are Democrats. 

Hellooooooooo!!! 

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A Brief Clip of Governor-Elect Chris Christie’s Victory Speech

 

And here was the tearful concession speech of the Dishonorable Jon S. Corzine. 

I’m sorry, but I can’t help but feel a Chris Mathews “tingle up my leg” knowing that this embarrassment to humanity get slapped down. Seeing Corzine go is more than just a relief. It provides a sense of optimism and a glimmer of hope for the state and people of New Jersey. Jon Corzine has been a lying scam artist. Who has done nothing but take every problem in New Jersey and turn them into crises. Good riddance Jonboy! And I do not wish you well. I wish you a future as bleak as the one you left behind for the more than 8 million people of New Jersey whose lives have been burdened by your reckless liberal policies and useless liberal leadership.

Don’t go speeding down the New Jersey Turnpike on your way out of Trenton, you fool!

 

Stars01.gif picture by kempite 

Election Results of Note 

New Jersey Governor – 99% reporting

Chris Christie (R) – 49%, 1,144,422   –  Jon Corzine (D) – 44%, 1,040,904  –  Chris Daggett (I) – 6%, 134,224 

Virginia Governor – 99.76% reporting  

Robert F. “Bob” McDonnell (R) – 58.65%, 1,158,183  – R. Creigh Deeds (D) – 41.23%, 814,167 

Virginia Lieutenant Governor – 99.76% reporting

William T. “Bill” Bolling (R) – 56.41%, 1,101,428      –      Jody M. Wagner (D) – 43.51%, 849,594 

Virginia Attorney General – 99.76% reporting  

Ken T. Cuccinelli II (R) – 57.52%, 1,117,494       –       Stephen C. Shannon (D) – 42.38%, 823,42 

Westchester County Executive – 97% reporting

Rob Astorino (R) – 57%, 88,915        –       Andy Spano (D) – 43%, 66,836 

Nassau County Executive  – 100% reporting  

Tom Suozzi (D) 48%, 118,111 votes – Edward Mangano (R)–48%, 117,874 votes –  Steven Hansen (C) – 4%, 9,552 votes

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RACE TO LEAD GOP’S FUTURE SHAPING UP

As the McCain led defeat of Republicans sets in, high hopes rise. As the race for President ended, the battle for the GOP’s future has begun.

Several days ago, I disclosed the likely contenders for Republican National Committee Chairman and some of those mentioned are beginning to fire their first shots.

antanuzislogon1One of those touted to want the job, Michigan Republican State Committee Chairman Saul Anuzis, has fired up a web site for the job .

A name that I did not list among the seven most mentioned contenders was former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. I for one, don’t think that Newt has a desire to reenter the political fray. I know and appreciate that he is completely involved in the ideological fight and the battle of ideas that he relishes in the more realistic world of the free, private sector. But I do not anticipate his willingness to actually get back into the political arena.

Would his return be welcomed? That’s not a question for Democrats. They picked the leader of their party when Barack Obama became President-Elect Barack Obama. It is a question for Republicans to answer.

As a Republican myself, I would welcome Newt‘s involvement. He is an asset. He knows politics and he knows the issues. He also puts the party, as well as the nation, before himself. He demonstrated that when after Republicans lost some seats in the House of Representatives back in the late 90’s, he offered his resignation as speaker. He did so because the media made him more important than the issues he was dealing with. He felt that he was such a lightening rod, that his continued role would take away from the issues we had to deal with.

Years later, now that he is not involved in the legislative post he once held, the party leadership role might be just right for him, as well as the GOP.

Of course, the left will begin every campaign that they run in 2010 and beyond, with the name “Newt Gingrich”. They will continue the demonization process of Gingrich and the GOP as they try to put an angelic face on themselves. But, will that have a bearing on the effective direction that Newt could put the party on?

The public image that Democrats will try to create for Republicans with Newt Gingrich’s face as the RNC chairman, would have an impact on initial public perception. But would the negative impact of anti-Newt, liberal propaganda outweigh the positive effect of Gingrich’s leadership for the party?

In the long term, probably not, but this, I can’t I can’t be sure of.

I do know Newt Gingrich understands what the GOP stands for and he knows how to shape the arguments and messages that we need. He is also capable of employing the right people to help the RNC articulate that message. Additionally, he helps reaffirm the base when it comes to where the party is going. Newt represents the conservative political thinking that many feel the party has strayed from……a straying away that coincided with the decline of Republican political preeminence since his departure from the congressional stage. He could also create great cause for many disaffected libertarians to join the Republican ranks.

Right now the party needs direction. Not just organizational direction in setting a strategic plan for future elections but also direction of purpose. We need to make that which differentiates us from Democrats clear. Over the past 5 or 6 years the lines of difference have been blurred. For one thing we had an incumbent Republican President who was about as fiscally conservative as Imelda Marcos in a shoe store. For another thing, we had Republican elected officials who allowed Democrats to get the upper hand when it comes to rhetoric denouncing the wars we are in. Many Republicans backed away from their public defense of our war efforts, fearful that too many voters were questioning it’s worthiness.  The sad fact being that too many elected officials allow themselves to be fearful of perceptions and unconcerned with their convictions.  Too many lack the cojones to use their convictions and stand up to wrongly held public perceptions.  That however, is not a fault possessed by Newt Gingrich

So we need someone who can help distinguish the differences between us and Democrats.
Newt could do for us if he chose to. He could actually energize the forces and he has proven to be capable of organizing national campaigns that promote the application of conservative legislative principles.

It’s difficult to make a decision when you do not yet know all your options, so although I am inclined to embrace Newt Gingrich’s wisdom, innovation capabilities and sense of ideological conviction, I reserve my own final conclusion until I know who else is wanting the job of Chairman. I refer to the word “wanting” because there are groups seeking to recruit some names. I do not want someone who has to be convinced that they should be the chairman of the RNC. I want someone who wants it and wants it for all the right reasons. Someone who wants to do the hard work and wants to fight for our cause.

I admire some of the names out there. People like former Maryland Lt. Governor Mike Steele of GOPAC.

I agree with him on most all issues and I appreciate the messages that he uses in trying to bring the point home. Of course being African-American, if Steele is selected to be chairman, the loony, left, libs will say that his being black was the only reason we picked him, but you know what?……I really don’t care what inconsequential, liberal, loudmouths think. They will be fighting the titular leader of their party, President-Elect Obama, as they try to force him to lead from the left instead of the middle. So they have their own battle to wage. This one is between us republicans……”No Liberals Allowed”….thank you.

In any event I have no objection to Mike Steele for the spot. He is a good, loud voice but based on abilities between him and Newt, I lean towards Newt.
In either case, both of these guys, as pointed out in the Washington Times, have not gone public with their desires. They seem to be wrangling behind the scenes and hoping to create a public yearning for their expertise that makes them humbly answer some sort of call to duty. If Gingrich continues to be coy and Mike Steele makes it clear that he wants the job, he’s got my support.

Two of my favorite choices would be Mitt Romneywho has almost as much of the ideological qualities and articulation abilities that Newt Gingrich has, but without the image problem and baggage. Former Maryland Governor Bob Erhlich is also a talented favorite of mine who has the ability to help us reclaim our ideological strengths. However, neither of these two have indicated the desire to be the new chairman and as for Romney, I would rather see him gear up for a run for President in 2012 then get bogged down in partisan politics. Right now, him and Sarah Palin need to convince me which will best qualified for our presidential nomination, so both should remain focused on that.

In regards to one of those who have made their RNC leadership intentions clear, Michigan Republican State Committee Chairman Saul Anuzis has potential but so does South Carolina Republican Chair Katon Dawson Chairman and Florida’s GOP Chairman Jim Greer. But I do commend Anuzis for naot playing any games and making his intentions clear. Unlike him, Dawson has been using the slogan “Renew, Reform, Restore,” in a survey that he has mailed out to a few hundred national committee members, the members who will elect the new chairman. Greer has been on the phones and testing the water.

All of these people have produced positive Republican results in their states. Of course though, Florida and South Carolina have fairly positive atmospheres for conservative oriented causes and campaigns. Saul Anuzis is relatively successful in a state that is not quite as open and friendly to Republicans as his counterparts in the South. To me, that shows that Saul Anuzis has plenty of grit and the type of underdog tenacity that the GOP needs nationally.

All of this speculation and conjecture is nice but there exists a very crucial question that we, as a party, must answer before we select someone to lead our party. What direction do we want the party to go in? Knowing the direction we want to go in could help us decide which leader is best suited to lead us in that direction.

Part of the answer to that question lies not in the race for RNC Chairman. It lies in the Republican leadership of the house and senate.

If our elected Republicans in congress, the guys on the front line of the ideological battle in government, elect the status quo to house and senate minority leadership, than we can write off any hopes for increasing political power in the near term.

People like Eric Cantor of Virginia need to win election as the Republican whip and I for one would like to Indiana’s Mike Pence assume overall leadership of the house.

On the Senate side, South Dakota’s John Thune is a favorite of mine. He has solid credentials and great vision. Unfortunately, the senate is an institution that offers less opportunities to young guns. Seniority rules there.

The logistics of the fact that US senators are elected from an entire state causes individual senators to be less cutting edge and more moderate than their counterparts in the house, who get elected from a segment of the electorate in their home state, that may have more extreme views than do the entirety of a state. But the legislative leadership that republicans have in congress will have a lot to do with the effectiveness of whoever is chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Our leaders in the house and senate must be leading legislative efforts that are in sync with the direction and message that the party is taking. If we, as a party, are preaching spend less, drill more, reduce government intrusiveness and fight harder, it won’t be believed if congressional Republicans are approving Democrat budgets that are full of increased social welfare and government programs, limiting our abilities to exploit natural resources and accepting retreat on any front in the war on terror.

We need legislative leaders who are of the mind of those who were a part of the ‘94 Republican revolution (which was orchestrated, sponsored and led by Newt Gingrich) that took congressional control away from the liberal party. If our congressional Republicans were of that same thinking now, half the battle would be over.  Mike Pence, Eric Cantor and John Thune are just exceptional examples of that thinking and are the type of legislative leadership we need.

Ultimately, as for the chairmanship of the Republican National Committee. I would like to see a power sharing effort that involves Gingrich, Steele, Dawson, Anuzis and Romney.

Together I would like to see them hammer out the road map. Then let Gingrich shape the debate, Mike Steele deliver the message, Katon Dawson and Saul Anuzis organize the ground game and Romney raise the money. Is this likely?………Nope. But it could be ideal.

For now I would be inclined to give Dawson, Anuzis and Steele the inside track and hope that if any one of those three get the job, they will reach out and work with the team that I would like to see work together.

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Don’t say this to a cop

The top 20 things not to say to a cop when he pulls you over.

20. I can’t reach my license unless you hold my beer.

19. Sorry officer, I didn’t realize my radar detector wasn’t plugged in.

18. Aren’t you the guy from the villiage people?

17. Hey, you must have been doing 125 to keep up with me, good job.

16. I thought you had to be in relatively good physical shape to be a police officer.

15. I was going to be a cop, but I decided to finish high school instead.

14. Bad cop. No donut.

13. You’re not going to check the trunk, are you?

12. Gee, that gut sure doesn’t inspire confidence.

11. Didn’t I see you get your butt kicked on cops?

10. Is it true that people become cops because they are too dumb to work at McDonalds?

9. I pay your salary

8. So uh, you on the take or what?

7. Gee officer, that’s terrific. The last officer only gave me a warning.

6. Do you know why you pulled me over? Okay, just so one of us does.

5. I was trying to keep up with traffic. Yes, I know there is no other cars around, that’s how far they are ahead of me.

4. What do you mean have I been drinking? You are the trained specialist.

3. Well, when I reached down to pick up my bag of crack, my gun fell off of my lap and got lodged between the brake and the gas pedal, forcing me to speed out of control.

2. Hey, is that a 9mm? That’s nothing compared to this 44 magnum.

1. Hey, can you give me another one of those full cavity searches?

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WHO WILL LEAD REPUBLICANS BACK INTO POWER

As the GOP recovers from a drubbing at that ballot box that served them with an eviction notice at the White House and a foreclosure on many seats in the house and senate, a reorganization is in order.

Crucial to a successful reorganization is the selection of it’s next national chairman.

Florida Senator mel Martinez

Florida Senator Mel Martinez

After the losses which cost them their majorities in the house and senate during the 2006 midterm elections, the powers that be, hastily installed Florida Senator Mel Martinez as the new chairman. At the same time they also elected Mike Duncan, a veteran political strategist and former Treasurer General Counselor to the RNC, to run the “day to day operations” of the national committee. In other words Duncan was actually the Chairman and Senator Martinez was to be the face of the party.

It was an arrangement that did not last long.

A few months into this arrangement, Senator Martinez stepped down and Mr. Duncan had the title all to himself. Not that it mattered. Whether it was his fault or not Republicans were outspent, out argued , outmaneuvered and voted out.

Outgoing RNC Chairman Mike Duncan

Outgoing RNC Chairman Mike Duncan

I will not blame Mike Duncan for the hemorrhaging of Republicans in this election cycle. That began before he took office, less than a year ago, and it simply continued for the time period that he was in office as chairman. It is more than likely that no individual chairman of the RNC could have prevented the losses Republicans suffered but we do know that the chairman did not help prevent them from happening.

So I do not blame Mike Duncan but I do harbor ill will to the party officials who gave up after 2006 and installed quick replacements to head up the Republican party. It was quite apparent that the party was simply trying to just get through the last two years of President Bush’s term in office. The RNC leadership were more like caretakers than leaders. They did not seek to adopt a leadership that was cutting edge and enthusiastic about revolutionizing the capabilities of the party organization and preparing us for the mother of all elections, the presidency.

It is the same complacency that helped cost Republicans their majorities in congress. Elected officials lost the anti establishment thinking that won them favor back in 1994. After becoming “the establishment” they slowly began to forget that government was there to work for the people not for the people running government.

So here we are saluting a new President-Elect, a new Democrat President-Elect. One who will be partnering with a majority of legislators who are also Democrats.

It might sound depressing to fellow Republicans but the truth is it is that for a number of reasons it is not depressing:

  • Can’t Get Much Worse -We have just about bottomed out. It truly can’t get much worse so the prospects for improving our numbers in the next election are good.

 

  • Liberals Gone Wild -With Democrats in total control of government, there is little to hold them back and prevent them from showing their true colors. When those true colors come out, Americans will realize that the direction they offer is too sharp a turn to the left for their tastes. The last time they had total control was in 1993 when Bill Clinton was President. After two years of liberals gone wild, Americans gave control, of both the house and senate, to Republicans for the first time in forty years. It was something that Republicans could not achieve on their own. It took the combined left leaning radicalization of today’s Democrat party to bring that about and it is about to happen again. In fact the greatest challenge that the new President will face comes from his own party. He will be struggling against them and fighting them in an effort to lead from the center rather than the left.

  • The War – Although the economy helped push the war off the front burner, the changing tide of the surge in Iraq also made the war less of an issue because violence and combat was down and it was being won. The war in Iraq did not help Republicans in this election cycle but not because it was unnecessary, as democrats claim,  but, as I explain in the link referenced here*, Americans became weary and leery of the war. While the surge was delayed and the administration wavered, violence spiked as a result of a resurgence of radical Islamic terrorists in Iraq. That is when Democrats successfully exploited a declining resolve to continue an effort that people were beginning to think was becoming a quagmire. Since the increased deployment of troops into Iraq, the situation improved and there is light at the end of the tunnel. As a result, despite the cries of candidate Obama to end the war, President Obama will not be withdrawing all of our forces from Iraq anytime soon.  Now that he has seen the national security data that demonstrates the dangers of his misguided promises as a candidate, as a President he will not be so quick to screw things up. Ultimately Republicans will be proven right on the issue.

 

  • The Economy – Typically our economy goes through cycles of growth and contraction every ten to fifteen years. More accurately, just about every 11 years, we encounter economic turmoil brought on by the cumulative effects of industrial shifts, world events and other related circumstances. That being said, it is how we maneuver through these cycles that determines their severity and the length of time that we endure them. The liberal propensity to raise taxes and redistribute wealth during these times does not help. Those policies simply deepen the crisis and draw out the cycle. If the knee jerk, liberal tendency towards more taxes and an expansion of government does occur, Republicans will be able to stem their losses and start increasing their numbers. The current crisis that we are experiencing is not a result of Republican economic policy. It is a result of their complacency and unwillingness to differentiate themselves from liberals when it came to spending. Our own President had no problem with cutting taxes, a good thing, but he also never cut spending and neither did fellow Republicans in congress.

All of this allows for those Republicans, who are in office, to offer alternatives to the counterproductive liberal agenda that will undoubtedly dominate national policy. To effectively achieve that, Republican members of congress need to reestablish their fiscally conservative roots and inherent sense of an offensive strategy when it comes to national security. The fact that, as Republicans, we choose to eliminate threats rather than tolerate them will be made much clearer with liberals in control and it must not be ignored.

Now that Republicans are not in control we now have the luxury that Democrats had. The luxury of not having to defend our leadership. Democrats will now have the chance to be held accountable for everything that happens. They will have to take blame for the results of increasing taxes, increasing unnecessary regulations and increasing the size and cost of government. With their leadership comes responsibility. With responsibility comes credit as well as blame. After eight years of taking blame for all that is not liked, Republicans can now luxuriate in being able to place blame on Democrats as they have done to Republicans.

But while those Republicans elected to congress do their job by providing alternatives to liberal policies and maintaining their role as the loyal opposition, our political leaders must hit the ground running.

The question now is, who is best suited to reorganize and reinvigorate Republicans? The person needed to rally Republicans must be articulate. But a good speaker is not all that we need. The person who is made the new chairman of the party must have a passionate desire to advance the cause, incredible organizational skills, the ability to delegate responsibilities to the right and most qualified people, endless energy and stamina as well as creativity and resourcefulness and a proven record of success.

The new chairman needs the same type of vision and commitment to conservative principles that the freshmen members of congress who were elected in the 1994 Republican revolution had. The new chairman must have a vision which understands that the best government is the government that gets out of the way and allows freedom to flourish by defending it at home and abroad and by insuring that opportunity is available to all.

Currently, there are seven frontrunners. They include:

Steele

Mike Steele

Michael SteeleGOPAC , former Lt. Governor of Maryland and unsuccessful candidate for US Senate in 2006.

Chuck Yob

Chuck Yob

Chuck Yob – Successful Michigan businessman, GOP fundraiser and Michigan National Committeeman

Saul Anuzis

Saul Anuzis

Saul AnuzisChairman of the Michigan Republican State Committee

Alec Pointevint

Alec Pointevint

Alec Poitevint – Georgia’s Republican National Committeeman

Katon Dawson

Katon Dawson

Katon DawsonRepublican Party Chairman of South Carolina , the state that had the best performance for Republicans during this election cycle.

Jim Greer

Jim Greer

Jim Greer – Florida’s Republican party Chairman

Chip Saltsman

Chip Saltsman

Chip Saltsman – A former Chair of Tennessee’s GOP and the former campaign manager of Mike Huckabee’s failed candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination.

Mike Huckabee

Mike Huckabee

Speculation has not only Huckabee’s former campaign guru on the list, Mike Huckabee himself is rumored to be a potential contender. So is one of Huckabee’s former opponents for the GOP presidential nod, Mitt Romney.

Of all these names the one person who I believe could do the most for the Republican National Committee is Mitt Romney.

antrom11

Mitt Romney

Romney has been successful at every job that he has undertaken. He is passionate. He is articulate, savvy and has an eye for recruiting those who are the best at their jobs. Mitt Romney could do wonders for the party. He would be able to provide the GOP’s highly rated, get out the vote, 72 hour program with great improvements and he would create a top notch center for Republican organization, communications, fundraising and creative strategy.

Problem is that I want Mitt Romney to be able to run for President. I am looking forward to either him or Sarah Palin being our 2012 nominee. Becoming the political leader of the party does not help him establish the bipartisan image that a Presidential nominee needs. If he did as a good a job for the party as I think he would, having been the chairman of the party he rebuilds, could help him get the party’s nomination though.

However, I feel that a truly smart RNC chairman would involve Mitt Romney and utilize his expertise. Doing so would keep Romney free to expand his nonpolitical credentials while still allowing for his Midas touch to assist behind the scenes.

As for the other names mentioned, Mike Steele, Katon Dawson and Jim Greer are the only names that really interest me. Each of them have demonstrated ideological superiority to one extent or the other and have achieved outstanding results for Republicans.

Former Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich

Former Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich

One name not mentioned but is at the top of my list, is former Maryland Governor Robert Erhlich. After losing reelection in the 2006 GOP sea of change, Bob Ehrlich has not been discussed much. That is a shame because he happens to be one of the best in the newer generation of conservative politics. He was the first Republican to be elected governor of Maryland in almost 60 years. Through it all Ehrlich maintained his principles and conservative ideology. Not once did he try to win favor by acting like a democrat. Instead, he successfully implemented conservative ideology into government application. He also happens to be articulate and effective in his ability to explain and deliver the conservative message.

 

Sometimes referred to as a Kempite Republican, Bob Erhlich could be just what we need to rekindle our spirit and rally the cause.

Whoever the grand poobahs of the GOP hierarchy install as chairman, it is my greatest hope that they recruit the right people to carry out the mission that is ahead.

Patrick Ruffini

Patrick Ruffini

People like political Internet champion Patrick Ruffini who could incorporate the most cyber savvy organization politics has ever seen and Ralph Reed who is a master at reaching out and organizing the grassroots.

Ralph Reed

Ralph Reed

Being the minority party is not a problem to be feared. Becoming the minority is what we needed to fear and now, we are there.  So the worst is over. Now we have the chance to take advantage of what Democrats took advantage of for a long time, minority status and the ability to place blame on the powers that be that comes with it.

From here we can only come back, and if we take the right steps, we can come back quickly. To do so will require that our first steps be the right steps . In this case that would be done by picking the right person to map out our future and recruit the brightest lights to help illuminate the fast track to the reinvigoration that the party is capable of.

punchline-politics1

 

Q: What’s the problem with Barack Obama jokes?


A: His followers don’t think they’re funny and other people don’t think they’re jokes.

 

 

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LAUTENBERG’S GOTTA GO! DICK ZIMMER FOR U.S. SENATE

New Jersey Candidate For U.S. Senate, Dick Zimmer

New Jersey Candidate For U.S. Senate, Dick Zimmer

New Jersey is a state in crisis. A manmade crisis that has created a state that is unaffordable and a government that is inconsequential. For more than 5 years little has come out of its state capital to make much of a difference in the lives of its approximately 8,725,000 people. Yet from its lush green, rolling hills and mountainous peeks in its northwestern corner to its Victorian Painted Ladies along Cape May on its southern seaside corner, New Jerseyans are battered, burdened and brushed aside by a state legislature that is as effective as a sail boat without a sail. From it’s northern mountains to it’s southern shores and all the suburban sprawl in between, New Jersey’s citizens suffer. While most of the nation is realizing a national economic pinch, New Jerseyans are trying to cope with an economic punch.

Rising prices across the nation only compound the rising cost of living in New Jersey. Costs that have been increasing every month since the states liberal led assembly and senate went to work with disgraced former Governor Jim McGreevey and than his successor, former Goldman Sachs financial genius, Governor Jon Corzine. It is a liberal menage-a-tois that has done nothing with our state problems accept make them more expensive.

Ever since Corzine took office, all we have seen in New Jersey are new proposed taxes and rate hikes. Our Governor has proposed everything from ridiculously high, progressive, toll increases on our critical roads, to creating new tolls on roads that have not had a one before. When he first came into office he invented a whole new slew of taxes. One even took advantage of the state’s motto by implementing a tax on any landscaping or planting of shrubbery and flowers. Now that’s one way to keep the garden in “the Garden State”, isn’t it?

Despite the despair of its citizens, state government in New Jersey simply adds to the high cost of living in the state. They have done little to curb the excesses of it’s own governance or of public employee and teachers unions who hold us hostage to their whims, little to improve public transportation, public safety, education, or any quality of life issues that affect us. What they have done is cost us a lot more for a lot less and created one of, if not the most, unfriendly business environments in the nation.

But even though the state of the state is in the midst of malaise, you would never know that there was an election in New Jersey. Its liberal loving legions are undoubtedly voting for Barack Obama to become our next President.  It is so definite that neither Obama or McCain have wasted anytime or money in the state since they got their party’s nominations.  But even putting the presidential election aside, you would think that there would be some acknowledgment of the fact that we have an election for the United States Senate going on here. Yet, you would never know it.

Even though it is an election for federal, not state office, you would think the people of New Jersey might have an ounce of interest in trying to better the conditions of our state by electing someone who’s representation of us in Washington, DC could help to benefit us here in New Jersey. But such is not the case.

Instead the four term incumbent Senator Frank Lautenberg is going to be sworn in to a fifth term in office as one of the two very best New Jerseyans to represent us in Washington, DC.  It would actually be a laughable arrangement if it wasn’t so pathetically sad.

For twenty-four years Mr. Lautenberg has represented New Jersey in the federal government by promoting his own self interests. He has not made one iota of difference for the state or the nation since his first term in office. 

Over two decades ago Senator Lautenberg spearheaded efforts to eliminate smoking on airplanes. During that same first term he was instrumental in effectively raising the legal age for drinking from 18 years of age to 21, throughout the nation. Lautenberg fought hard for the passage of his legislation that linked federal funding to states for their roads to their raising the legal drinking age.   No state wanted to lose out on the federal money available to maintain and build their roads. So this resulted in a uniform legal drinking age throughout the nation and prevented teens from driving across state lines so that they could legally drink in one state and then get behind the wheel to drive back to their home state while intoxicated.  The bill may have actually saved lives.  It was a responsible and, at the time, a creative measure.

But since that first time in office, Frank Lautenberg has produced nothing. His name has joined many others on various liberal pieces of legislation but the extent of his efforts stopped after allowing a staffer to put his name on the bill.

Lautenberg has not been in the forefront of any legislative initiatives or in the lead in opposition to any legislation. Frank Lautenberg has provided no solutions to our nations problems.  For display he has simply offered a press release or sound bite in regards to issues, but little, very little, more than that.

On taxes Frank Lautenberg has never opposed an increase that has been proposed. On the budget, the only thing he has endorsed cutting is spending on our national defenses.  He has never once moved to significantly reduce government spending or it’s size.

His spending habits are perhaps best exemplified by his staff.  It is one of the three highest paid staffs in the entire US Senate.  This is odd when you realize that he is one of the least active members of the senate.  Yet his staff is occupied by countless consultants and a number of state directors.  Even though New Jersey is a relatively small state, Mr. Lautenberg requires three state directors, including a number of South Jersey directors. These are obviously patronage positions made available to help consolidate Lautenberg’s power.  South Jersey is where his greatest challenges to re-election come from.  It is where Congressman Bob Andrew comes from and where he challenged Lautenberg for the nomination from.

Even though New Jersey ranks last among all states in the amount of return on the dollar we recieve from Washington, Frank’s staff is one of the highest paid in the federal government and for what?  Two press releases a week and his seal of approval for a far left agenda?

The fact is that until this election rolled around one had to take pause and try to recall if Frank Lautenberg was still in the U.S. Senate.  The man was scarce and his accomplishment are even more scarce.  Now that he is running for re-election he has tried to demonstrate himself as a doer.  He most recently proclaimed great pride in what one ad described as his forcing homeland security money to be allocated by need rather than politics.  It might be a powerful issue if it were true.  First of all, Lautenberg, as well as his senate cohort Bob Menendez, have brought back little money from Washington to New Jersey.  In the case of homeland security money, what the state did receive was being allocated by a liberal led state legislature and governor who only gave the money to districts that were represented by Democrats.  This pattern finally and only changed after Republican lawmakers took the issue to court.  Then and only then was the allocation of homeland security dollars doled out based upon the security needs it was meant for.

The truth is that Frank has little to run on.  It is hard to have to go back more than two decades in order to demonstrate ones effectiveness.

Not that it matters. This is New Jersey. Here. where liberals rule, two plus two does not equal four. In fact, here in New Jersey, just adding two plus two together costs you 5 in new taxes and then you must subtract the total of the equation and give that amount to the union whos leader slept with Governor Corzine and negotiated contracts behind closed doors.

So common sense is not something that you find a large quantity of New Jersey.  It is something that we have to import from neighboring states and in the Northeast it is hard to find.  But it explains why Lautenberg is being rewarded with a fifth term in office.  That and the fact that the New Jersey Republican party is so unorganized and out of touch with the ability to tap into the political despair that we are in, all accounts for why one would not know that there was election for the US Senate in Jersey.

Lautenberg is the wealthy owner of ADP, the paycheck service that rakes in millions for producing the checks that many American’s receive for their livings.  So he has oodles of dough and even has the financial backing of the Democratic National Committee and the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee.

The Republican nominee does not have Frank’s wealth, nor does he have the great deal of money coming to him from the RNC or Senate Republican Campaign Committees. They’re tapped out.

On top of that Frank Lautenberg even refuses to debate the issues and will not go face to face with his opponent.

All of this makes the fact that there is a race for the United States Senate in New Jersey, a well kept secret, much like Frank Lautenberg’s accomplishments.

But there is a race and it’s one that could truly help to turn the tide of inaction and lack of solutions or innovation in this state. It could come from Dick Zimmer.

Dick Zimmer is a former 3 term Republican congressman.  While in office Congressman Zimmer brought about more productive measures in just one of his two year terms than any of Frank Lautenberg’s four, six year terms in office.

While in office Congressman Zimmer fought wasteful government spending.  When it came to his own staff budget, unlike Frank Lautenberg who uses every dime given to him to have one of the highest paid federal staffs in government, Zimmer returned money that his staff budget didn’t require, to the federal government.  He even tried to pass legislation that required unused portions of staff budgets to be returned to the federal government and applied to deficit reduction.

As a congressman, Dick Zimmer’s fiscal conservatism and legislative initiatives earned him the title of “Taxpayer Hero” by Citizens Against Government Waste each year he was in office.

Zimmer’s zealotry did not stop with economic issues though.  He proved himself to be a man of great social conscience and activism.  When a toddler in New Jersey was brutally assaulted and murdered by a convicted sex offender who recently moved into the girls neighborhood, Dick Zimmer made government work for the people and he wrote and fought for passage of the federal legislation known as Megan’s Law which mandated that parents be notified when a convicted sex offender moves into their neighborhood.

Zimmer was also responsible for no frills laws which eliminated luxuries in federal prisons for criminals who were there to be punished instead of comforted.

He did this while also never allowing the United States to roll over in the face of international opposition or belligerent enemies.  Zimmer knows that the best America is a strong America, not just militarily but economically as well as educationally.

These are but a few examples of Dick Zimmer’s active participation in government. They exemplify his ability to implement improvements into our lives through a government that he helps to make work for us, not be a burden on us.

Dick Zimmer knows that the purpose of holding elected office is not for the title or ability to hand out patronage to consolidate power.  He knows that it is an opportunity to empower the people he represents and a chance to improve lives through legislative action as opposed to putting out press release announcing that he put his name on someone’s legislation.

Frank Lautenberg on the other hand has spent about two decades proving that he knows how to make government work for him.  It finances his patronage mill and pays him well to do nothing more than repeat the words of some of his more active and innovative liberal buddies in the Senate.

Perhaps the most accurate description of Frank Lautenberg and his long, lackluster waste of time in the Senate is best exemplified by the Frank R. Lautenberg Rail Station in Secaucus, New Jersey.  Built at a cost of more than 600 million dollars the transportation committee that Lautenberg chaired invested our tax dollars in it because of the dire need to expand and improve public transportation in New Jersey.  Here in New Jersey one must drive everywhere.  You must even drive long distances to catch a train to somewhere.  So this terminal was built in Northern New Jersey where there is a need to help increase public transportation to and from neighboring New York City.

The Empty, 600 Million Dollar, Frank R. Lautemberg Train Terminal In Secaucus

The More Than $600 Million Dollar, Empty, Frank R. Lautenberg Rail Terminal in Secaucus

Well the genius of the transportation committee, under Lautenberg’s leadership, allocated the money and after years of construction it was finally finished.  It’s a beautifully cavernous, multi leveled facility and it was humbly named after the man who designated the money for it…..Frank R. Lautenberg. Well years later it still stands but it does so empty.  With no parking made available anywhere near the facility, it is impossible for commuters to access it and so except for the occasional tourist in world famous Secaucus, New Jersey, no one uses it.

So here we have a useless, hollow monument to Senator Lautenberg that cost a lot but does little.  It’s just like it’s namesake.  Senator Lautenberg is a useless living fossil who costs taxpayers a lot but does little for them.

It’s time to retire Senator Lautenberg.  It was time for his retirement 8 years ago when he did retire only to be brought back to run for the senate when Senator Bob Toricelli was found guilty of accepting gifts and other bribes.  When it became obvious that he was not going to win re-election, state democrat leaders illegally took Torricelli off the ballot and replaced his name with Lautenberg’s.

Let’s face it folks, we have gotten all that we can we out of Lautenberg.  He was devoid of ideas and enthusiasm after his first term more than 18 years ago.  Since than we have been waiting for him to do something worth anyone’s while.  How many more terms in office does he need to provide us with something meaningful?

When all of New Jersey’s major daily newspapers, liberally biased newspapers, from the Asbury Park Press to the Philadelphia Inquirer and the Gloucester County Times to the Courier Post have endorsed Dick Zimmer, a Republican, you know that there is something wrong and that something is Frank Lautenberg.

With all the problems that are going unaddressed or worsening here in New Jersey, it is time that we shake things up.  It’s time for some new thinking and representation in Washington that can help make the federal government work better for us than our state government does. 

It’s time for Dick Zimmer.

So this Tuesday, November 4, 2008, regardless of who you cast your presidential vote for, be sure to vote for New Jersey and cast your ballot for Dick Zimmer for US Senate.

Even if his time hasn’t come, we know for sure that Frank Lautenberg’s time has gone.

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Presidential Summit

There was a presidential summit and the presidents of the world were asked to propose topics to discuss about.


The president of the United States said, “I think we’d see about how to stop wars.” Everybody applauded.

The president of Somalia said, “I think we’d see about how to stop hunger.” Everybody applauded.

The president of Costa Rica stood up and said, “I think…” Everybody applauded.

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McCAIN/PALIN vs. OBAMA/BIDEN AND THE POSSIBLE ELECTION NIGHTMARE

Given the closeness of this election anything can change the course of events . With weeks left to go, the slightest happening can swing this election in either direction. It could be any one of the debates, or a candidate’s poorly chosen, off the cuff remark. It might be a deepening of economic concerns or an international event that rearranges the importance of topics. Barring any unexpected, dramatic, landscape altering events, I see this election being won by John McCain.

I have come to this conclusion based upon polling data and state trends, along with party affiliations, population shifts, the persuading factors among the electorate,an incremental leaning in direction of independent voters, my personal, political intuition and the cords that each campaign is striking in their messages. After factoring all this in, I believe that John McCain will win with a total of 274 electoral votes to Barack Obama’s 264 electoral votes. This 30 state victory is still too close for comfort and it relies heavily on winning the battleground states of Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. Of these 5 states I believe Missouri, Nevada and Colorado will be the most pivotal. None the less, if they go as I think they will, Senator McCain will be our next President.

However; in this scenario I think victory will come with great public protestation.

You see in this projection, I do believe that there exists a strong chance for McCain to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote.

The unprecedented enthusiasm of Barack Obama’s supporters is undeniable. To those, more liberal oriented voters, the newness of Obama is appealing and his presence on the political stage is fresh. Among these groups there is also deep resentment to all things and people that are Republican. Together these are powerful motivational forces behind their mobiliztion to vote. This all makes for an unusually energized base among Democrat voters. Add to this the fact that Barack Obama is the first African-American nominee of either political party and you have the opportunity for a higher than normal turnout of conventional Democrat voters. African-Americans traditionally vote the Democrat ticket and in the case of Barack Obama you can expect that most will do so in this election. In fact many black voters who previously felt disaffected and have not voted in past elections, will probably not let their ballot go to waste in this election.

This all indicates that Democrat strongholds like New York and other highly urbanized and traditionally liberal states will not only go blue for Obama but they will pump out unusually high and disproportionate pluralities for the Democrats. In doing so this may result in Barack Obama actually getting more popular votes than John McCain. The only problem is that these high pockets of concentrated Obama votes will not change the electoral college map. For example, if New York state produces a popular vote of 6 million for Obama and only 3 and half million for McCain, Obama will get New York’s 31 electoral votes, as expected, but it wont change the result in a state like Texas which has 34 electoral votes and is solidly behind McCain. In Texas however, the vote may not be as lopsided in McCain’s favor as it is for Barack Obama in New York. More accurately the Texas results may be more like five million for McCain to four and a half million for Obama.

I expect uneven results with larger popular votes for Obama in most all the states that he wins. McCain will win states with far smaller margins than Obama The only exception will be Utah, the most heavily Republican state in the union. In Utah, McCain will be the beneficiary of a very large differential between the two candidates. But, when all the ballots are counted, Obama will have accumulated more votes nationwide.

Even so, he will not have more electoral votes.

It is the scenario that I believe is most likely. In it, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada are most pivotal.

I am confident that McCain will win the battleground states of Virginia, Ohio and Florida. Other close races exist in Michigan and Pennsylvania but the unusually high turnout of liberal, urban, votes there will ultimately allow Obama to prevail in them.

New Hampshire is a question mark. Currently it is a relatively tight contest between McCain and Obama in the “Granite State”. With it’s state motto of “Live Free or Die” New Hampshire is usually the only reliably red state in a northeastern sea of blue, but an influx of population from neighboring urban centers like Boston, combined with their recent leftward shift and a race for United States Senate that poises to elect popular, former New Hampshire, Democrat, Governor Jeanne Shaheen, will all account for McCain losing this once red state.

With the outcome of most other states not in doubt, Missouri, Nevada, and Colorado are the only remaining states for McCain to realistically be able to reach and exceed the 270 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency. I may be going out on limb here but I believe that McCain will win them over. Colorado and Missouri may be especially close but the environment should allow the McCain/Palin ticket to pull it off. Nevada will be tight but the movement is in McCain’s direction.  

Iowa, a neighbor of Obama’s home state of Illinios, is also going to be competetive.  It went for the G.O.P. from ’68 to ’84.  From ’88 to 2000 the Democratic nominee won Nevadans over.  In 2004 they went back to the Republicans and voted for Bush.  In this cycle, I see Obama’s regional advantage, ultimately  winning the day.

This hypothesis is becoming increasingly likely and although, as a Republican, I will be pleased with having elected John McCain President and Sarah Palin Vice President, I and many other Americans will not be pleased by the reaction to the nation’s first potential African-American President losing the presidency after winning the popular vote.

Similiar events happened before. In distant as well as recent history, the loser of the popular vote has still won the presidency with the electoral college but it is rare and it has never happened under circumstances like this.

I will not venture into how the electorate will react if this happens now. I will let you ponder over the reaction. But I will offer you another very possible result. One that also has a clear winner of the popular vote but does not allow for a winner to be declared until early January of the New Year.

If Nevada goes to Barack Obama rather than John McCain, as I anticipate in the previous scenario, than we have a tie in the electoral college.

269 for Obama/Biden and 269 for McCain/Palin.

In this event, the newly elected congress will decide the election.

Each of the 50 states cast one vote for President and a majority of 26 states determines the winner. Which candidate they vote for is determined by a majority vote of their newly elected congressional representatives. Currently, Democrats comprise the majority of congressional representatives in 27 states while Republicans control 21 state delegations and two states are tied with their delegations split equally.

If this number does not change in the November election, than it is more than likely that Obama would win the votes of the 27 states possesing congressional delegations dominated by Democrats.

In this election cycle Republicans are not likely to win back enough congressional seats to overtake Democratic majorities in any of the 27 states in question. In fact, due to the current environment, a higher than usual number of retiring Republican incumbents in addition to Obama’s, anticipated high voter turnout, Republicans will probably be losing a few seats.

This still does not assure Obama victory though. There are conservative oriented Democrat representatives who might choose to vote for McCain. These are politcians and this is Washington, D.C. where many wheeler dealers thrive and can always be swayed by the offer of the right appointment to the right position or are willing to throw principles overboard for that “special favor”. This possibility exists especially in several southern states where the difference between the majority of congressional representatives is quite slim.

Still it is unlikely that there would be enough defectors to sway more than one or two democrat dominated states to vote Republican.

The close contest for President of the United States could hinge on the slightest nuance during these last few weeks but the way I see it McCain will win with 274 electoral votes but Obama will lose after winning a majority of the popular vote. It is my hope that most Americans choose McCain and that he wins the majority of both the electoral college and popular vote, but the very real potential for the former looms over us.

Below are maps that depict the best electoral vote totals that both candidates could potentialy receive if circumstances were at the absolute best for one candidate or the other in the current environment. Both are highly unlikely: 
 

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VOTERS YOU CAN COUNT ON AND WHY OBAMA WILL LOSE

Golden Agers Are The Largest Group Of Most Reliable Voters In The Electorate

Golden Agers Are The Largest Group Of Most Reliable Voters In The Electorate

While the campaign for President rages on, people are taking sides for many different reasons. Some are choosing their candidate based on their perception that one candidate or the other agrees with them on issues that they are passionate about. Some voters are basing their decision on experience or trust in their candidates intentions. Others are voting simply based upon their party affiliation. There are even some reckless and bigoted individuals voting along ethnic or racial lines and others who are voting based on age.

A majority of people are basing their decision on more overall factors that look at the big picture and determine their vote factoring in issues, the candidates voting records and history along with their honesty and abilities.

Be it history, affiliation, color, one issue or many issues, the determining factors that account for the decision of each single voter varies.

From the managerial point of a campaign, the name of the game is getting more votes than the opposing campaign. In doing so a campaign manager must look at the demographic breakdown of the electorate and ascertain their likely supporters in those demographics. The reason being that in order to win, you must maximize persuasion and voter turnout among the demographics that are inclined to support your candidate.

There are many different aspects that factor in to demographics. First of all they must be registered voters. You can appeal to someone who has a strong opinion but if they are not registered to vote, their opinion does not matter. You have regional concerns and the mathematics of the electoral college. You have party affiliation and religious backgrounds as well as racial demographics and age. Of all these, and even more demographic breakdowns, age, happens to be one of the most crucial.

It is a fact that out of all specialized categories of voters, senior citizens are the segment who are most dedicated in an election. It is a group that exceeds all other cross tabs including race, gender or religion.

Senior citizens cherish their vote and they use it. There are many reasons for this fact. One deals with the fact that people of retirement age have entered into a less fast paced lifestyle and are not bogged down by long commutes to work and trying to meet deadlines in between addressing all the needs of their domestic lives. This gives them more time to focus on the issues and pay more attention to them. Other reasons deal with the fact that with their age also comes the revelation of the importance in their vote. They have come to learn that the leaders of our nation have more of a direct impact on us than other citizens think or understand. Unlike some younger voters who still feel invincible and detached from the effects of Washington, D.C., senior citizens realize the direct impact that Washington has on us.

Because of these points, senior citizens are the most important voting block in almost any election and most definitely in any national election. They comprise approximately 12.5 percent of the national population. More importantly, they comprise an even larger percentage of the voting population. 79 percent of this population registered to vote in the last election and even more have registered for this election. That is the largest percentage of voters out of all other demographic groups. Furthermore, of the 79 percent who can vote, more than 71percent actually cast a ballot, accounting for the highest voter turnout of any demographic.

All this points to one thing. When you combine the issues with the likely voters on Election Day, senior citizens are one of the most important groups that a campaign can appeal to. They listen and they vote.

In this election, Barack Obama has burst on to the scene and there is incredible enthusiasm for him. Especially among so-called young voters. It is often pointed out that the size of the crowds that turnout at Obama events are humungous. I will not disagree with that but I will suggest that it has little bearing on the election. Many of these young voters do not vote. Come Election Day, they often find themselves preoccupied with other happenings in their lives and the level of importance that some of them put on their right to vote often pales in comparison to some truly less important trend of the moment. The crowds that show up for Barack may be large, but how many of those people are registered to vote? How many of them who are registered will actually make the effort to vote?

Barack Obama’s appeal to the youth vote is admirable. We need all voting age citizens to vote and many do. But the fact remains that the most reliable voters are 65 and older. It is a point not ignored by John McCain and his campaign which has not simply geared his efforts to the “hipper”, younger part of the electorate as does Obama. McCain’s appeal is rooted in accomplishments and examples and he directs it to all Americans, including seniors.

That being the case Barack Obama is losing this election based upon not only his lack of accomplishments to point to or the incongruity of his policy positions but because the direction of his campaign is tactically wrong. He is relying on a segment of the electorate that has paid little attention to the real issues. A segment of the electorate that thinks it knows all that they need to know by getting their news from MTV. Admittedly, there are many young and first time voters who pay more attention and are not swayed by Lindsay Lohan, Britney Spears or Matt Damon. That is why the youth vote is not monolithic in it’s support of democrats. Neither are golden agers. But the older, reliable, likely voters are more conservative in their thinking. They also are not as open to change as is the x-generation and VH1 or MTV crowd.

This does not bode well for a candidate who has taken his campaign to the streets of Germany and promotes change without having a record of bringing about any reform. Older citizens take pause and wonder if the type of change being offered is the type of transformation that Jimmy Carter brought to them when they were younger and lived through economic times far more difficult than we may have today. The retired voter is not impressed by commercials geared to the youth vote and claim that John McCain is out of touch because he doesn’t use e-mail. First of all John McCain doesn’t use email because the improper setting of broken bones during his Vietnam experience handicapped him and left him without the dexterity to properly use a keyboard. Secondly, many in the older generation don’t rely on e-mail, yet they are still in touch with the issues and the reality they live in.

 

According to many polls, experience is one of the most important qualities that people 55 and older look for in a candidate. Currently, polls have shown that this age group leans heavily to John McCain for that reason. They see in him someone that brings vast experience to the ticket and in his running mate they see someone who actually has experience in governing. All are qualities that they do not find in Obama. It is a point hammered home by Pennsylvania, which has the second largest senior population in the nation. In Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary for President, Clinton overwhelmingly defeated Obama in large part due to the senior population and their focus on experience.

It is also interesting to note that the three states with the highest population of seniors are also battleground states in the presidential election. Among them are Florida, which has the highest concentration of voters 65 and older.

These factors do not offer great optimism for an Obama victory. His ambiguous calls for change, his lack of experience and accomplishment along with his attempts to make McCain look out of touch and feeble do not necessarily appeal to one of the largest and most reliable group of voters in the nation.

The political professionals on the Obama team will realize all this in time. And when they do, they will pull out the DNC handbook and resort to their usual tactic of trying to scare senior citizens. They will try to scare them into believing that John McCain will steel away their social security benefits. It is a tactic that they have used in every election cycle since Reagan and it is a tactic that has failed them. In fact, it is a play on their fears that has often offended seniors and backfired on democrats. But rest assured, the democrats will panic and play that game again.

In the mean time Barack Obama should sit down and asses his campaign. He should look at the voters whom he is trying to appeal to and try to address them properly. Instead of mocking age, he should try to point out all that his age brings to the table . Instead of promoting change for change’s sake, he should develop and articulate an economic policy that would strengthen the economy and allow people to keep more of the money that they earn. Instead of appealing to Germans in Berlin he should appeal to Americans and outline his direction for keeping us safe. Instead of using text massages to make announcements such as who his running mate will be, Barack should address the people properly. Perhaps a good way to do that would be to accept John McCain’s call to joint town hall meetings with the people, where the two of them can address the people, together, in real life, not online and scripted.

In the end, the campaign that has been best at putting forth their vision to all the voters and has been able to best support that vision with real results, will win the day. However, it will not be won by continuing in the direction that the Obama campaign is going. It will not be won by trying to appeal to the youngest and most unreliable voters and offending the oldest and most reliable voters.

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