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Republicans Can’t Gloat, But They Can Listen To the Voters & Set an Example

Bookmark and Share    Two years ago I listened to Democrats tell me “Republicans have gone the way of the Whigs”, “this is the end of the Republican Party”, “the Republican Party is forever lost”, “they will never comeback”. These are direct quotes. They are the thoughts of euphoric liberals who saw, then President-Elect Barack Obama, as a messianic figure, a modern JFK and the “hope” of our nation. At the time, I could not help but think, first, these are the same people who think Joe Biden is a genius, and second, how naïve could these people be?

I for one understand the cyclical nature of politics and I also understood the nature of the Democrats slow rise to control between 2004 and 2008. So, confident in the principles that lie at the heart of the G.O.P., I knew the Republican Party was not dead. I knew that we would come back and I never abandoned the cause to bring ’em back.  I hoped for my Party to have learned a lesson and come to understand what they did wrong. I was also confident that, being dominated by liberals, the Democrat Party would prove incompetent. I stated such. I also stated that President Obama would be a reincarnation of the Carter presidency and prove to be a man controlled  by circumstances more than he controlled circumstances.

Between my two perceptions of the Parties, I knew the G.O.P. would be back. However, I never expected them to comeback quicker than any other time in American political history. Sadly, I cannot say that this record comeback was to my Party’s credit. It was solely due to the failure of Democrats. They performed in a way that demonstrated everything that people hate about politics. When it comes to partisanship, they defined it. When it came to pork, they stuffed their faces. On the issue of spending, one would have to work really hard to try to spend more than they have in just 20 short months. On negative issue, after negative issue, Democrats exaggerated the negatives. The closed door deals, the underhanded tactics, the passage of bills they did not read, the overreach of government, corruption, whatever people disliked about government and politics, Democrats did.

In the meantime, the G.O.P. had little chance to give the public reason to vote for them and offered little reason to do so either. What they did do though, was oppose all that Democrats did and all that the public disliked. For that reason, they were the beneficiaries of a protest vote against Democrats, not necessarily a vote for Republicans.

That is why I have penned the midterms of 2010 the Republican Rejuvenation. In 1994, the wave that swept Republicans into power was accurately called the Republican Revolution. And it was a revolution. People had approved of the ideas and direction that the G.O.P. was offering. But this time, the people are not that confident. So while this election has indeed rejuvenated the G.O.P., the rise back to power they have experienced is an opportunity, not a victory. It is a chance that is theirs to blow, or take advantage of.

It ‘s a chance to show leadership and prove that they understand that the leadership they must provide is that which leads us to a limited government that stays out of our lives, spends less of our money and more accurately reflects that which it was intended to when it was founded.

So now that the chance to prove ourselves is upon us, how do we as Republicans take advantage of the opportunity?

First; we must not act like Democrats. We must not be hypocrites and implement the same legislative tactics and sleights of hands that we denounced Democrats for using to pass legislation. Second; we must not approve increased spending which increases the overall federal budget and need to reduce spending and the deficit. Third; we must follow through on our promises and cut the size of government and repeal Obamacare and replace it, not with a more government, but rather a package of changes which help make healthcare more affordable through the free market, not through a behemoth new federal bureaucracy.

But this is not enough. Republicans must go the extra mile and prove that they have not only learned the ideological lessons which teach us that we can not compromise on big spending and big government, but that we also want less government when it comes to the personal lives of individual Americans. We must show that when we discuss less regulation, we also mean less regulation of the people and their personal lives. And beyond proving that we have learned our ideological lessons we must appeal to the nonpartisan nature of the average American and prove that we have learned how to provide leadership that is for country , not Party.

It is this cause which I feel the G.O.P. must act upon first.

When President Obama was elected, he proved himself to be quite partisan. It took him 18 months to meet one on one with Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. It took him a year to start discussing healthcare reform with Republicans. He has recently stated that Republicans can join with Democrats but have sit in the back and described the loyal opposition as “our enemy“.. These are not the acts and words of a leader who wants to cross the aisle and deal with all Americans or hear all opinions. The American people are tired of partisan leadership and partisan gridlock. That is why with this new opportunity at hand, Republicans must show that they understand when partisanship and politics must stop and productivity and progress must start.

To do so, I call upon the new Republican majority to reach out to the Democrat minority and our President. Reach out to them, one on one and say. “let’s start the new Congress right. Let’s start it off on a productive note and let’s answer this question. What do we agree upon?”

I want the Republican leadership to find out what Democrats and Republicans can do together in the first 100 days and start off on the right foot. Let us change the tone in Washington that the American working class hates about the political class.

While there are priorities which the G.O.P. will have a responsibility to address with haste, certain national priorities and commitments they campaigned on, at the same time, there must be some significant issues which the left and the right can agree on. Let us find out what they are and act upon them, now, not later.

This new day in politics must produce a new way in politics. A way that unites more than divides and lifts us up as nation more than weighs us down. In this new day, Republicans have a chance to say “no” to what needs to be rejected, but the responsibility to produce that which should be said “yes” to. The opportunity we have been handed must be used to demonstrate that we are deserving of the peoples vote and that when applied to government properly, the core Republicans principles we stand for, are key to the formulation of the best policies for the American people. This opportunity we have is nothing to gloat about. We have no right to gloat. We did not earn this victory in 2010, we simply were the beneficiary of the Democrat’s losses. But if we do what is right, now, we can truly be deserving of votes later.

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What To Look For In The Early Election Returns

Bookmark and Share    For those of you who find yourselves viewing election returns with the same type of intensity that most watch the Super Bowl with, POLITICS 24/7  previously offered a comprehensive election night analysis and schedule along with projections. It seems to have been quite popular and so  for those who are most anxious, POLITICS 24/7 now focuses in on the earliest returns and what they are likely to tell us about how the rest of the night will shape up.

The very first returns that have the chance of being reported on will come out of Indiana and Kentucky. Here, parts of the state close their polls at 6:00 pm EST. As a result, it is possible for some media outlets to report the results of some of the first House races. But it is also possible, in fact likely, that the results in a few of those congressional districts where the polls do close, will be too close to call.

6:00 pm

But sometime between 6:00 and 7:00 pm look at Indiana-2 and 9, and Kentucky-3 and 6.

In Indiana’s 9th CD, a loss by incumbent Democrat Baron Hill will be a sign that Republicans are indeed on track to take the House and see significant gains across the board.

If the races in Indiana‘s 2nd district and Kentucky’s 3rd, are too close to call, rest assured that that this will indeed be a wave election. But if Democrat incumbents Joe Donnelly and John Yarmuth actually lose, to their Republican opponents, Jackie Walorski and Todd Lally, you can take it as a sign that the 2010 midterms are going to be a tsunami that will produce historic gains for the Republicans that approach 70 seats.

 

 

7:00 pm

After 7:00 pm EST, the races that will act as barometers and need to be watched include:

 Kentucky’s Senate race, South Carolina-5, Florida-8 & 22, Georgia-8 & 12, Virginia-5 & 11.

The GOP will be on track for 50 or more seats with Republicans wins in the Kentucky Senate race with Rand Paul, in addition to the following House races;

South Carolina-5 (Mick Mulvaney-R over John Spratt-D), Florida-8 (Daniel Webster-R over Allen Grayson-D), Florida-22 (Allen West-R over Ron Klein-D), Georgia-8 (Austin Scott-R over Jim Marshall-D) and, Virginia-5 (Robert Hurt over Tom Perriello-D)

While those wins will help verify that the G.O.P. is on track, the following results between 7 and 8 O’clock will be signs that Democrats are about to be crushed worse than expected;

Georgia-12 (Ray McKinney-R over John Barrow-D) and Virginia-11 (David McKinley-R over Mike Oliviero-D)

7:30 pm

Between 7:30 and 8:00 pm, the results to look at will come out West Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina.

Wins by John Kasich in Ohio’s gubernatorial race and Ohio’s 1st CD (Steve Chabot-R over Steve Driehaus-D) will show that the G.O.P. is on track and that trends are holding. But the races that will indicate that the Republican wave may bigger than anyone anticipates will come from West Virginia’s race for U.S. Senate and the following House races;

 WV-1, WV-3, NC-11 and OH-6

Any combination of two or more wins in these races will point to Republican gains in the House that will exceed 62 seats and if John Raese pulls it out and beats back popular Democrats Governor Joe Mancin for Senate in West Virginia, the G.O.P. will have the potential of taking control of the United States Senate.

8:00 pm

After the 8 o’clock hour, the outcome of the 2010 midterm will begin to be set in stone.

News out of Illinois of Republican pickups in the Senate by Kirk and the statehouse by Brady, will keep everything track in still make it possible for Republicans to take control of the United States Senate. From Pennsylvania, word of Pat Toomey defeating Joe SaysTax will be further evidence of the trend holding. Of course something else to watch for in these wins, will be the margins of victory. If any of these races produce leads of 5 or more percent, that will help prove that polling models are inaccurate and were unable to detect the undercurrent of voter sentiments. A sure sign that things will be worse off for Democrats than anyone anticipate, would be a Republican win over Democrat Patrick Duval in the race for Governor of Massachusetts.

The House races to look at here will be:

Connecticut-5, Pennsylvania-3 and11, NH 1, Illinois-14, and Mississippi-4

A majority of Republicans here are keeping the G.O.P on track for a big night. But if it is going to be a really big night for Republicans they will be winning the following races:

Pennsylvania-8 (Michael Fitzpatrick-R over Patrick Murphy-D), New Jersey-3, (Jon Runyan-R over John Adler-D)

Democrat losses of these two seats will be a sign that the anti-Democrat sentiments are seeping into some of the bluest states in one of the bluest regions of the country. Other such races include:

 Massachusetts-10, Illinois-17 and, Missouri-4

 And two seats that Democrats losses would mean that they are going to be dead in the water  would be:

New Jersey 6 and 12

Here Democrats Frank Pallone and Rush Holt are seemingly safe seats, but there are rumblings that could prove them not to be safe for big government, big spending liberals anymore.  That and extremely hard fought races by their Republican opponents Anna Little and Scott Sipprele makes these races worth watching.  Pallone and Holt may not lose but if they have a margin of victory that is less than 6 or 7 percent, Democrats will be living in fear from now to 2012.

 But aside from these races, keep your eyes out for the returns in

Massachusetts’ 4th CD and Michigan’ 15th

If long serving John Dingel goes down in Michigan, Democrats better hold on for a tougher ride than they expected, but if Barney Frank loses to Republican Sean Bielat in MA-4, Republicans may be on their way to taking 70 seats.

Defeating Barney Frank may be unlikely, but after Republican Scott Brown was elected to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate and a strong race by Sean Bielat, if there are going to be any miracles on election night, they will take place here in the Bay State.

9:00 pm

As the 9 o’clock hour rolls out look for the House to be officially declared to have changed hands and gone to Republican control. But during this hour, some of the House races that will give a hint as to the size of their majority, are;

Louisiana-2, Minnesota-1 & 8, Michigan-15, NY-2, 13, 19, 24, Rhode Island and Wisconsin 13

While many other seats are going to fall to Republicans after 9 o’clock, especially in New York, Colorado and Wisconsin and Michigan, of the seats mentioned above, if Democrats who are likely to win in these districts, lose any combination of 4 or more, Republicans are looking at House gains approaching 70 seats

10:00 pm

Long before this hour, we should have established that the House has gone to Republicans but we should also have a good idea on how the rest of the chips will fall. I anticipate that after this hour, the balance of power in the Senate will come down to California and Washington where Boxer and Murphy are at risk (Murphy more so than Boxer), and Alaska where write-n ballots will drag out the time it takes to declare Joe Miller the winner.

Sharon Angle is likely to win in Nevada but as for this race, look for the early numbers that come out of Clark County.

Clark County is the home of Las Vegas and most of the state’s population. Clark County is overwhelmingly Democrat, but it is the only part of the state that is. If returns out of Clark County are showing Harry Reid with a lead over Angle that is not higher than 8%, Harry Reid will have lost his bid for reelection.

Other races of special interest throughout the night will be Louisiana-2 where incumbent Joseph Cao is likely to lose to Democrat Cedric Richmond.  If Cao wins, this will be a sign that Democrats are underperforming among their base and minorities musch worse than anyone thought possible.  The same will be able to be said if Democrat Incumbent Loretta Sanchez loses to Republican Van Tran in California’s 47th congressional district. 

Also of interest will be Hawaii’s at-large seat in Congress and race for Governor.  Republicans have a decent but unlikely chance of keeping Charles Djou in office but an even less likely chance of keeping its statehouse in Republican hands aginst popular retiring Congressman Neil Abercrombie.

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POLITICS 24/7’s 2010 Election Night Schedule, Projections & Analysis

Bookmark and Share     In these closing days of the midterm elections, Democrats have been unable to do anything to stop the hemorrhaging of support that continues to drain away from them. At the same time, the wind behind the backs of the G.O.P. continues to build and with no resistance in sight, the momentum for Republican electoral victories is only strengthening. Two weeks ago, I feared that Republicans had peaked in the polls. That would have been a premature occurrence and not boded well. But since then, as GOP candidates continue to rise in the polls, it is clear that Republicans did not peak too early. All indications are that the momentum is still behind them and building. As such, history shows that many seats which are close enough to be considered tossups and those that have Democrats holding only slight leads, are more likely to fall into Republican hands then Democrat hands.

In addition to that and the massive swing of Independent and women voters to Republicans from Democrats, I believe that the anti-Democrat sentiment is currently running so unusually strong and deep that traditional polling models are not able to accurately enough read the depth of support for Republican candidates that exists out there. At least not as accurately as they normally can be.

The polls most reflective of final election results are those that are taken among people who are considered likely voters. But this year, there exists a group of voters which can not yet be identified by existing polling models. They fall in neither the category of “first time voters” or “likely voters”. It is the segment of the electorate which is also the most angry and the most likely to vote against Democrats. They are voters who became fed up with government as much as 5 to10 years ago and tuned out and stopped voting. But now, they have become so angered that they have come out of inactivity and are going to be some of the first people to cast their ballots against Democrats on Election Day. Existing polls are unable to account for this demographic and are allowing for results that do not contain the influence of these voters.

It is this unseen undercurrent of Republican support which I believe is going to help tip tossup races in favor of G.O.P. challengers and produce a number of surprises in races that are leaning toward Democrats. For instance, while I admit that Barbara Boxer is likely to be reelected, I have a feeling that Republican Carly Fiorna is poised to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the night and throw Boxer into a long overdue retirement from politics. The same undercurrent that I believe may sweep Fiorna into the Senate, will probably also be sweeping Republicans Dino Rossi of Washington and, I am going out on a limb by saying West Virginia’s John Raese, also to victory.

On the Senate side I believe that Republicans establish majority control by winning in:

Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia.

West Virginia and Washington are going to be too close for comfort though, and these results may not be official for quite a while, especially in Washington where mail in ballots are going to make recounts a tedious and time consuming process.

As for Alaska, this will probably be the very last race to be declared and won’t be done on Tuesday. Expect a careful and methodical recount of tons of write-in votes and court challenges. In the case of Delaware, I am probably one of the few people who is still not writing-off the ability for Christine O’Donnell and the voters of Delaware to make the professional pundits, political establishment and the media, look stupid, by pulling off an unlikely surprise upset victory over Democrat Chris Coons.

So while I an sure that  the G.O.P. will have a minimum net gain of 8 seats in the Senate, I believe that some combination of wins in Washington, West Virginia and/or California, will give Republicans control of the Senate with a total of 51 to 49 seats. But the very real possibility of  a 50/50 tie does actually exist here. If that happens, expect the GOP to end up taking control at some point during the course of the new year as at least one Democrat or two switch Parties ahead of their 2012 reelection bids in an attempt to avoid becoming  a casualty when President Obama is on the top of the liberal ticket.

On the House side, I expect Republicans to increase their existing numbers by a minimum of 58 districts that are currently held by Democrats, but project that they actually win 62 seats and have a good chance to gain as many as 68. This would bring Republicans from the current number of 178, to anywhere from 240 to 246 House seats. Such numbers would give the G.O.P. one of its largest majorities since 1946.

Many may believe that these figures are too high. As a skeptic, under normal conditions, I might believe so too. However, even though I am typically a pessimist and even though I usually prefer to lower expectations in politics, I am convinced that my projections are not exaggerated or overly optimistic and I believe there to be a greater chance for the higher estimate to come to fruition than there is for my lower estimate.

But the proof will be in the pudding and no matter how much statistical data and fine tuning of local factors that I combine together to reach my projections, only each individual voter ultimately knows what they will do with their private ballot. And Lord only knows the variables that things like the weather will add to the mix.

But signs of the final results will reveal themselves early on in the evening of November 2nd.

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6:00 pm: Parts of Indiana and Kentucky;

Polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6:00 pm, but we may not hear any results until 7:00 PM when the rest of the polls in those states close  along with Virginia, Georgia, Vermont, South Carolina and parts of Florida.

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7:00 pm: Virginia, Georgia, Vermont, South Carolina, Parts of Florida, All of Indiana and Kentucky;

The hour between 7:00 and 8:00 pm may produce election results that provide us with a hint as to whether the 2010 midterm elections are going to be for Republicans a current, wave or tsunami.

South Carolina’s Niki Haley will hold on to the Governor’s mansion for Republicans but it is South Carolina’s 5th CD which may be one of the very first signs of just how an unusually large number of normaly safe Democrat seats and incumbents are about to fall like dominos. Here, if longtime incumbent John Spratt loses to Republican Mick Mulvaney, people like Michigan’s John Dingel and Massachusetts Barney Frank, better pull out the rosaries, find God, light a candle and say a few prayers because for the first time in their careers they will most definitely be vulnerable.

From Indiana, The GOP will gain a senate seat, replacing retiring Evan Bayh with Dan Coats and news that 8th and 9th district Republicans Larry Buschon and Todd Young defeat Democrat incumbents Trent Van Haaftern and Baron Hill will indicate that Republicans are on track to win 55 or more seats. Should they lose, the GOP will still be in line for at least 40 seats but significantly more than that may in fact not be realistic. In Indiana’s 2nd district, if returns are still too close to declare incumbent Democrat Congressman Joe Donnelly the winner, or if his Republican opponent Jackie Walorski beats him, do not be surprised by GOP gains of 60 or more seats.

In Florida, early indications that Republicans are on track for 40 or more seats will be seen in early returns that give the GOP wins in FL-2 with Republican Steve Sutherland, and in the 8th, where the unbridled liberalism of Allen Grayson, one of the most obnoxious and arrogant members of Congress, should be shut up and shot down by Republican Daniel Webster. But if the G.O.P. is going to be riding a tsunami to control of the House, Lt. Col. Allen West, my favorite candidate of all running for the House, will win in Fl-22, along with Republican Sandy Adams over Democrat Suzanne Kosmas in Fl-24.

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7:30 pm: West Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio

Races to look at as barometers between 6 and 8 pm include KY-3, where incumbent John Yarmuth should win by at least three or more percent. If his opponent, Todd Lally pulls off an unlikely win, this election will be a bigger landslide to the G.O.P. than anyone anticipated.

The same goes for KY-6 (Ben Chandler vs. Andy Barr), NC-2 (Bob Etherdige vs. Renee Elmers), VA- 5 (Tom Perriello vs. Robert Hurt), GA-12 (John Barrow vs. Raymond McKinney), OH-6 (Charlie Wilson vs. Bill Johnson), and WV-3 (Nick Rahall vs. Spike Maynard) and we should be getting news on SC-5 (John Spratt vs. Mick Mulvaney),

Perhaps the biggest news at this time will be the news that Rob Portman keeps Ohio’s senate in the Republican column and that John Kasich takes the Governor’s mansion away from incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland.  Kasich is anoother favorite candidate of mine in the 2010 midterm elections.  Like Marco Rubio, he is potential presidential material and no matter what a rising star on the national stage of conservativbe leadership.

At the hour of eight o’clock, the real dye will be cast.

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8:00 pm: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida CD’s 1 & 2, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas;

At this point in time, despite Linda McMahon and the Republican candidate for Governor losing their races in Connecticut, look for CT-5 (Chris Murphy vs. Sam Caligiuri), to switch and if CN-4 also falls, you will have further confirmation of the 2010 midterm elections being historic. During the eight o’clock hour, one of the most powerful indicators of just how big Republicans may win by, will play out dramatically in Mississippi’s 4th CD. If incumbent Blue Dog Democrats Gene Taylor goes down to Republican Steven Palazzo, President Obama might want to consider pulling a Charlie Crist and registering as an Independent because a loss by Taylor will mean that there is no place for Democrats to hide and no issue for them to hide behind.

Another race that could be indicative of the “big mo” behind the G.O.P. will be Maine’s 1st district where Democrat Chellie Pingree could be beaten by Republican Dean Scontras.

The state to produce the biggest switch to the G.O.P. this hour may be Pennsylvania where, Republicans Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey will take the statehouse and U.S. Senate and as many as 7 seats could go red. The five seats most likely to switch are PA-3 (Kathy Dahlkemper-D vs. Mike Kelly-R), PA-7 (Patrick Meehan-D vs. Bryan Lentz-R), PA-8 (Patrick Murphy-D vs. Michael Fitzpatrick-R), PA-10 (Chris Carney-D vs. Tom Marino-R), PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski vs. Lou Barletta).

The real kicker here will be the results of Massachusetts 4th district.  In order for these midterms elections to be a complete success Barney “Mac” Frank must be eliminated from public service.  Frank is a boil on the seat of government, a dangerous drain on federal integrity and resources, and a government official whose fingerprints are alover the housing market crisis and the subsequent economic coolapse that ensued.  His opponent Sean Bielat has made this the most competetive races Barney Frank has ever had  and proven himself to be an energetic, trustworthy leader for Massachusetts and fiscal responsibility in a limited government.  Bielat is not likely to win but he will come closer than anyone expects and as far as I am concerned, after the shocking election of Scott Brown to the the U.S. Senate, an election whicg created the trend of turning the political brown instead of red, I believe that potential for a an electoral riptide exists here and that Barney Frank could actually be carried away by the anti-establishment, anti-Democrat sentiment that swept Scott brown to victory.

In regards to the U.S. Senate, sometime between 8 and 8:30 we should be hearing that my favorite Senate candidate, Marco Rubio, has pummeled both Charlie “What Am I Now” Crist and Democrat Kendrick “I should have stayed in the House” Meek.

We should also hear that in addition to Joe “Says Tax” Sestak in Pennsylvania, we can say goodbye to Mr. Alexi Giannoulias, President Obama’s corrupt banker buddy and welcome his Republican opponent, Republican Mark Kirk, to the Senate from Illinois.

As far as the races for Governor go, after the 8:00 pm closures, in addition to Paul LePage taking Maine, Tom Corbet taking Pennsylvania, and Florida going to Rick Scott, the GOP will also increase the number of Governors in Illinois with Bill Brady.

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8:30 pm: Arkansas

At 8:30 pm, Arkansas closes the book on the 2010 midterms with a stinging and embarrassing defeat of Democrat Senator Blanche Lincoln and the flip of AR-2 from Democrat Joyce Elliot to Republican Tim Griffith.

A defeat of Democrats in AR-1 and 4 is not likely but possible. If they do fall to Republicans, this will be further evidence that we will be in the midst of a total shift in the tectonic plates of the political landscape.

Before 9:00 pm, we should already know that Nancy Pelosi’s tenure as majority leader is just a bad memory. But during the 9 o’clock hour, a flood of states will be delivering additional blows to Democrats.

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9:00 pm: Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

Between 9 and 10 pm, the G.O.P. will make big gains in the all important statehouses which will be instrumental in drawing preferential districts for the incumbent Party for the next decade and also in making big strides toward control of the United States Senate.

Republicans will pick up Governors in Kansas, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Wyoming, and have a good chance of taking Minnesota. Rhode Island’s gubernatorial leadership is likely to flip from Republican hands to Independent hands, but it is still somewhat of a tossup. And while I do not see us keeping Rhode Island, if by chance, Republican John Robitale defeats liberal Independent Lincoln Chafee and Liberal Democrat Frank Caprio, Democrats will need sedatives to get through the rest of the night because that will be indicative of a pending national whooping that will hit them so hard, FDR will feel it.

As for the Senate, say goodbye to Michael Bennet in Colorado, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.

House races to look at for signs of how substantial the night will be for Republicans, include; CO-7 (Permultter-D vs. Frazier), RI-1 (Cicilline-D vs. Loughlin-R), and especially NY-1 (Bishop-D vs. Altschuler-R), NY-13 (McMahon vs. Grimm-R), TX- 25 (Dagget-D vs. Campbell-R), and MN-8 (Oberstar vs. Cravaack). Any combination of three or more of these seats will be one of the final signs that Democrats are spiraling out of control in this election. From those states which wrap their voting up during this hour, at least 16 or 17 seats should switch from Democrats to Republicans. Some of the biggest gains are likely to come from New York where the GOP will pick at least 4 seats, (NY-1, 19, 20, and 29), but possibly as many as 6 with wins. A remarkable chance exists for Republicans to take back the 13th CD which is encompasses the Staten Island and Southwest Brooklyn section of New York City’s five boroughs. This seat has been the only one in which New York City sent a Republican to occupy. It was in Republican hands for decades but last year fell to Democrats after Congressman Vito Fossella received a DUI charge in Virginia and subsequently revealed that while he was away in Washington from his Staten Island family, he spent time with his mistress and illegitimate child in Virginia. The candidacy of Michael Grimm and the anti-Democrat environment we are in, makes this a good last chance to take this seat back.

The other New York race that is well worth watching is out on the Southern tip of Long Island where Tim Bishop, (D, NY-1) could find himself a victim of a trend that began on Long Island last November when one of its two counties was taken by surprise when Republican Ed Mangano came from nowhere to defeat a safe Democrat incumbent in a race that was largely seen as uncompetitive. Although that was Nassau County and NY-1 is in Suffolk County, there is not much that differentiates the one county from the other when it comes to political sentiments. In this congressional district, Republican Randy Altschuler is certainly giving incumbent Tim Bishop a run for his money and if there are going to be a lot of surprises on November 2nd, NY-1 is as a good a place as any.

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10:00 pm: Arizona, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Nevada, Utah

It may not be made official for an hour or so but the biggest news of the night will happen not long after the stroke of 10 when Sharon Angle embarrasses Democrats by taking down their Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid. Further embarrassment will include the ridiculously lopsided loss of Harry’s son Rory Reid, who is running for Governor of Nevada. Hopefully the Reid family will take the message and crawl back under the rock they emerged from.

In this same round of poll closings Iowa will give the GOP a statehouse pickup in Iowa. House seats to watch include AZ-7 where a win by real life rocket scientist, Republican Ruth McClung could defeat incumbent Raul Grijalva. McClung is not favored to win but if she did, it would be indicative of 2010 being much more than a Republican wave election. Other races which are suppose to remain in Democrats hands but could be upsetting the establishment are AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords-D vs. Jesse Kelly-R), ID-1 (Walt Minnick-D vs. Raul Labrador-R), IA-3 (Boswell-D vs. Brad Zaun-R) NV-3 (Titus-D vs. Heck-R), ND-At Large (Pomeroy-D vs. Berg-R), and UT-2 (Matheson-D vs. Morgan Phipot-R).

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11:00 pm: California, Washington and Oregon;

In this round of poll closings, the GOP will simply be putting the icing on the cake House, but could determine whether or not they take control of the Senate.

In California, Republicans may very well control in Sacramento with the defeat of Meg Whitman to Jerry Brown and while only a major last minute development can save her, Carly Fiorina will in my opinion fare far better and ultimately pack Boxer up with a victory of a percent or less.

Washington state is likely to produce an upset by sending Republican Dino Rossi to Washington and retiring incumbent Patty Murray by another slim margin of victory, but mail in ballots will prevent this from being confirmed for days, at least.

The most interesting House race to be watched will be in California where Democrat Loretta Sanchez is in the tightest race of her nearly two decade in office as she tries to beat off a challenge Van Tran. Vietnamese Tran, a California state legislator, is unifying the significant 15% of the district populations which is Vietnamese, along with a coalition of Independent Hispanics, African-Americans and Caucasians, along with a sizeable Republican vote. Together, these groups are countering the overwhelming 69% Hispanic makeup of the district. But that is a pretty solid voting bloc and if Van Tran can pull this one off, it will in large part be due to the strong undercurrent that is sweeping Democrats away. Sanchez should win this election the surprise factor has great promise in CA-47.

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12:00 pm: Alaska, Hawaii

At this point, Republicans may be needing a victory by Joe Miller to take control of the Senate. But despite losing the GOP nomination in Alaska, Miller’s closets opponent in the race, Lisa Murkowski, is still a Republican and if her outside chance of successful write-in candidacy comes true, she is still likely to caucus with Republicans and in that regards, accomplish the same goal as far as who will control the Senate. Either way, expect Alaska’s results to no be made official for quite a while.

In Hawaii, CD-1 will be an attention grabber. Here, Republican Charles Djou recently won the seat in a special election. Yet observers favor his opponent, Democrat Colleen Hanabusa to take this seat back for Democrats. I think Djou can keep it, albeit by a small margin, but by a majority nonetheless. As for the governor’s race in Hawaii, while Republican Duke Aiona has made this race a tossup between popular retiring Congressman Neil Abercrombie, I fear Abercrombie is just to popular to defeat in Hawaii. The fact that Aiona has made this race as close as it is, is a tremendous credit to him, but in the end, I see Republicans losing the hold they had on the Hawaii statehouse with retiring Republican Governor Linda Lingle, to Neil Abercrombie.

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No matter what, Republicans will be back in a position of power that will make it at the very least alter the Obama agenda and make it impossible for the President and Democrats to try to circumvent them. If the GOP happens to take control of both the Senate and the House, you can rest assured that President Obama is going to be a different President than he has been over these past 22or so months. Will he abandon his agenda and moderate in order to work with Congress or will he stick to his guns and risk an endless stream of rejection from Congress? When Bill Clinton was faced with the Republican Revolution of 1994, he was reduced to having to explain to a reporter how he would be relevant to the political process during the second half of his term.

Now, with the Republican Rejuvenation of 2010, President Obama may be faced with the same need to prove how relevant he will be. This will certainly be the case if Republicans can exploit the small chance of taking over the senate as well as the House. But Bill Clinton was able to prove that he was indeed relevant. He began to pay attention to the pulse of the people and began working with the G.O.P. instead of constantly working against them. This will be harder for President Obama to do though. The has publicly told Republicans to sit on the back of the bus and called Republicans “the enemy”. Still, unless President Obama wants to endorse gridlock and seek to get reelected by claiming that the GOP is still in the way of his agenda which has proven to be a failure, he will be forced to moderate. How he reacts to the new political in America will be quite interesting. If he is the politically charismatic genius that some claim, he could turn things around and resurrect himself among mainstream and moderate America and the powerful Independent vote.

As for Republicans, it must be remembered that they are not winning because people like, trust or want them. They are skeptical of the GOP and not fully convinced that they understand that the people do not want to compromise on the issues of big government, big spending and further encroachment of our constitutional rights. This means that Republicans must be unafraid of saying “no” to the President. They must not backtrack on attempts to repeal government healthcare, cut the size, scope and cost of government or cave in to political correctness and fail to live up to the promises made in 2010.

The final political effect of the 2010 election results will be seen in the 2012 race for President a contest that will begin on the Republican side on Wednesday November 3rd. On the Democrat side it may not begin start up quite as fast. President Obama will be spending some time outside of the country in the days to follow the election. And when he returns home he will be making every single policy decision with 2012 in mind and others. But others like Hillary Clinton may also be doing the same. People like her might feel that the devastating losses that Democrats will have suffered, will require them to save the Party from President Obama and the nation from his policies. Such thinking could be behind the resignation from her position as Secretary of State some time during the beginning of 2011.

 

   GOPElephantRight.jpg GOP Elephant Right image by kempiteStars01.gif picture by kempiteGOPElephantLeft.jpg GOP Elephant Left image by kempite

Republican House Pickups

Results bewtween 6:00 pm and 8:00 pm

  • Indiana 8                – Larry Buschon over Trent Van Haaften
  • Indiana 9                – Todd Young over Baron Hill
  • Florida 2                 – Steve Sutherland over Allen Boyd
  • Florida 8                 – Daniel Webster over Allen Grayson
  • Florida 22               – Allen West over Ron Klein
  • Florida 24               – Sandy Adams over Suzanne Kosmas
  • Virginia 2                – Scott Rigell over Glenn Nye
  • Virginia 5                – Robert Hurt over Tom Perriello
  • South Carolina 5  –  Mick Mulvaney over John  Spratt
  • Georgia 2                 – Mike Keown over Sanford Bishop
  • Georgia 8                 – Austin Scott over Jim Marshall
  • Ohio 1                        – Steve Chabot over Steve Driehaus
  • Ohio 15                     – Steve Stivers over Mary Jo Kilroy
  • Ohio 16                     – Jim Rannaci over John Boccieri
  • Ohio 18                     – Bob Gibbs over Zach Space
  • North Carolina 8  – Harold Johnson over Larry Kissel
  • West Virginia 1      – David McKinley over Mike Oliverio

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

**indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Georgia 12               – Raymond McKinney over John Barrow**
  • Indiana 2                  – Jackie Walorski over Joe Donnelly**
  • Kentucky 3              – Todd Lally over John Yarmuth
  • Kentucky 6              – Andy Barr over Ben Chandler
  • Virginia 9                 – Morgan Griffith over Rick Boucher
  • Virginia 11               – Keith Fimian over Gerry Connolly
  • Ohio 6                        – Bill Johnson over Charlie Wilson**
  • West Virginia 3      – Spiike Maynard over Nick Rahall
  • North Carolina 11   – Jeff Miller over Heath Schuler

 

Results bewtween 8:00 pm and 9:00 pm

  • Connecticut 4           – Dan Dibecella over Jim Hines 
  • Connecticut 5           – Sam Caliguiri over Chris Murphy
  • Illinois 11                   – Asam Kinzinger over Debbie Halvarson
  • Illinois 14                   – Randy Huttgren over Bill Foster
  • Illinois 17                  – Bobby Schilling over Ohil Hare
  • Maryland 1                – Andy Harris over Frank Kratovil
  • Massachusetts 10   -Jeff Perry over Bill Keating
  • New Hampshire 1   – Frank Guinta over Carol Shea Porter
  • New Hampshire 2   – Charlie Bass over Ann McLane Kuster
  • New Jersey 3            – Jon Runyan over John Adler
  • Pennsylvania 3        – Mike Kelly over Kethy Dahlkemper
  • Pennsylvania 7        – Bryan Lentz over Patrick Meehan
  • Pennsylvania 8        – Michael Ftzpatrick  over  Patrick Murphy
  • Pennsylvania 10     – Tom Marino over Chris Carney
  • Pennsylvania 11      – Lou Barletta over Paul Kanjorski
  • Tennessee 4               – Scott DeJarlas over Lincoln Davis
  • Tennessee 6              – Diane Black over Brett Carter
  • Tennessee 8              – Stephen Fincher over Roy Herron
  • Texas 17                     – Bill Flores over Chet Edwards
  • Florida 2                    – Steve Sutherland over Allen Boyd
  • Arkansas 1                – Rick Crawford over Chad Causey
  • Arkansas 2               –  Tim Griffin over Joyce Elliot

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Alabama 2                         – Martha Roby over Bobby Bright **
  • Massachusetts 4             – Sean Bielat over Barney Frank **
  • Mississippi 4                    – Steven Palazzo over Gene Taylor **
  • New Jersey 6                   – Anna Little over Frank Pallone **
  • New Jersey 12                 – Scott Sipprele over Rush Holt ** 
  • Pennsylvania 4               – Keith Rothfus over Jason Altmire **
  • Pennsylvania 12            – Tim Burns over Mark Critz **
  • Texas 15                           – Eddie Zamora over Ruben Hinjosa
  • Texas 25                          – Donna Campbell over Lloyd Doggett **

 

Results bewtween 9:00 pm and 10:00 pm

  • Colorado 3                  – Scott Tipton over John Salazar
  • Colorado 4                  – Cory Gardner over Betsy Markey
  • Louisaina 3                 – Jeff Landry over Ravi Sangisetty
  • Kansas 3                       – Kevin Yoder over Stephene Moore
  • Michigan 1                   – Dan Banishek over Gary McDowell
  • Michigan 7                  – Tim Walberg over Mark Schauer
  • New York 19              – Nan Hayworth over John Hall
  • New York 20             – Chris Gibson over Scott Murphy
  • New York 23             – Matt Doheny over Bill Owens
  • New York 29             – Tom Reed over Matt Zeller
  • New Mexico 2           – Harry Teague over Steve pearce
  • South Dakota -AL    – Kristi Noem over Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin
  • Texas 23                     – Quico Canseco over Ciro Rodrigues
  • Wisconsin 7              – Sean Duffy over Julie Lassa
  • Wisconsin 8              – Reid Ribble over Steve Kagen

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

  **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Colorado 7                 – Ryan Frazier over Ed Perlmutter**
  • Louisiana 2        – *Cao over Richmond **~(see note below)
  • Minnesota 1               – Randy Demmer over Tim Walz
  • Minnesota 7              –  Lee Byberg over Collin Peterson
  • Minnesota 8               – Chip Cravaack over Jim Oberstar**
  • Michigan 15               – Rob Steele over John Dingel**
  • New York 2                – John Gomez over Steve Israel**
  • New York 13             – Michael Grimm over Michael McMahon**
  • New York 24             – Richard Hanna over Michael Arcuri
  • New York 25             – Anne Marie Buerkle over Dan Maffei
  • New York 27             – Leonard Roberts over Brian Higgins
  • New Mexico 3           – Tom Mullins over Ben Ray Lujan
  • Rhode Island             – John Loughlin over David Cicilline**
  • Wisconsin 13             – Dan Kapanke over Ron Kind**

 

Results between 10:00 pm and 11:00 pm

  • Arizona 1                               – Paul Gosar over Ann Kirkpatrick
  • Arizona 5                              – David Schwiekert over Harry Mitchell
  • Arizona 8                              – Jesse Kelly over Gabrielle Giffords **
  • Idaho 1                                   – Raul Labrador over Walt Minnick
  • North Dakota -AL              – Rick Berg over Earl Pomeroy
  • Nevada 3                               – Joe Heck over Dina Titus

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • Arizona 7                              – Ruth McClung over Raul Girjalva **
  • Iowa 3                                    – Brad Zaun over Leonard Boswell
  • Utah 2                                    – Morgan Philpot over Jim Mathison

 

Results between 11:00 pm and 12:00 am

  • California 11             – David Harmer over Jerry McNerny   
  • California 20            – Andy Vidak over Jim Costa
  • Washington 3          – Denny Heck over Jamie Herrera

Seat changes that would indicate  a trend toward Democrats losses much higher than expected

 **indicates seats that if Democrats lose will be  a sign of a Republican pickup of 65 or more seats if

  • California 18                   – Mike Berryhill over Dennis Cardoza
  • California 47                  – Van Tran over Lorretta Sanchez**
  • Washington 2                 – John Koster over Rick Larsen**
  • Washington 9                 – Dick Muri over Adam Smith
  • Oregon 4                          – Art Robinson over Peter DeFazio
  • Oregon 5                         – Scott Brunn over Kurt Schrader**

 

Results after 12:00 am

  • Hawaii 1                 – Charles Djou over Colleen Hanabusa
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The State of The Republican Party

Bookmark and Share   The state of the Republican Party is questionable but promising.

After a slew of victories at the end of ‘09, including the gain of County Executives, council seats, and  Republican Governors in New Jersey and Virginia, combined with the pick up of a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts at the beginning of 2010, the G.O.P. is alive and well. But the successes seen recently have largely come not because voters perceive the Republican Party to be superior. Much of our success was due more to the perception that the Democrat Party is inferior.

Since President Obama took office one year ago, Americans have seen him increase the national debt by $1.693 trillion, try to tax the air that we breathe with a Cap-and-Trade measure, attempt to have government takeover healthcare, initiate hundred of billions of dollars in spending to stimulate the economy and create jobs, break promises for missile defense systems, dither on his commitment to the war in Afghanistan, try to close down Guantanamo Bay, force foreign terrorists to be tried in civilian courts rather than military tribunal and bow down to foreign leaders.

Along the way Americans also got to see President Obama call police officers stupid, expand the size of government, appoint an endless array of unelected and unaccountable czars, participate in 28 fundraisers for Democrats that raised almost $28 million for political coffers, campaign for Democrats in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts, screw up security measures in the Transportation Security Authority, take more trips to foreign nations in his first year in office than any other U.S. President and we have listened to him apologize for America on foreign soil.

As for the rest of his Party, Americans watched Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid pass legislation under the cover of darkness and Democrat Senators and Congressman vote on legislation they never read. We also watched a process that was suppose to be bi-partisan and transparent, turn into one of the most partisan and clandestine operating governments in American history, seen pork barrel spending increase and lawmakers take hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes to vote for healthcare reforms that most Americans do not want.

Nothing embodied all that infuriated us more than the Democrat led attempt to have government takeover healthcare. That process contained examples of all of the above. It also hangs above Democrats like a sword of Damocles and represents the precise wrong direction Americans see our nation going in.

The result of all this liberal leadership has been an increase in unemployment as well as spending and our debt, lawmakers who are seemingly irresponsive to the wishes of the people and believe they are above the law, and a nation that has more doubt about our nation’s future than confidence in its future.

 So it should come as no surprise that voters are angry.

That anger has been to the detriment of Democrats, while Republicans were the beneficiaries of it. republicans are not the ones in control of government. They are the ones that Democrats have, up to now, chose to shut out. So it is only natural for voters to give credit where credit is due…….right in the laps of liberals.

But as we move ahead, the G.O.P. must not rebuild its majority simply because they aren’t Democrats. Such a rise to power would ultimately be short lived.

In the existing political atmosphere, the opportunities that exists for the Republican Party are golden. People are not pleased with the direction liberals are taking them in. Nationwide, Tea Party organizations have demonstrated loudly and are organizing rapidly. Their goal is to get government off their back. They do not want the government making their healthcare decisions and determining when and where they can receive it. They do not want government in the business of business. They do not want G.M. to stand for Government Motors. They don’t want their children’s futures sold out from under them with endless spending or with pieces of overreaching legislation that are over 2,000 pages long and have not been read but are passed because a majority of lawmakers took bribes for their reelection bids.

These Tea Party patriots are not pro-Republican. They hold the G.O.P. accountable for going along with Democrats and for not reducing debt under George Bush. They are not fans of the G.O.P. . For them, simply being not as bad as liberals does not make Republicans deserving of praise and support.

 And they’re right.

That is why we must reinvent our commitment to the principles of our Party and the founding principles of our nation.

As a Party we must bring forth a concrete foundation to run on. A foundation that addresses all that has voters up in arms. We must also not fear that commitment sounding “too strong”. No matter how Republicans address our nation’s problems, liberals will call the G.O.P. “extreme”. But we must remember that our purpose is not to sound like Democrats or to please liberals. Our purpose is to solve problems and be true to the most sacred American document in existence………………the American Constitution.

Americans of every stripe and party affiliation have become acutely aware of the unconstitutional legislative conduct that our process has been advancing. Many Americans are aware of the federal governments overreaching and excesses. They see how states rights are trampled. They are also aware of how our government seems to reward mediocrity and punish success. So now is the time for the Republican Party to come before the nation with a pledge. It is a pledge to recommit ourselves to the Constitution. This pledge must outline several areas of focus in which all candidates will commit to and collectively fight for, as a Party and as individual legislators.

 rwbbar

The Pledge of Commitment

We, the people, commit ourselves to the non-negotiable demands of human dignity,…… — Equal JusticeFreedom of SpeechLimited Government PowerPrivate Property RightsReligious Tolerance and — Respect for women, life and the Rule of Law.

We are committed to a legislative process that does not propose or pass any legislative agenda or initiative that is of questionable constitutional integrity or inequitable, overreaching or excessive.

For these reasons, we dedicate ourselves and our Party to reigning in the excesses of federal spending and unjust control. As such we are committed to the following 10 initiatives and goals.

  • All proposed bills, amendments and spending measures must contain the section of the Constitution that provides the constitutional basis for its consideration and passage.
  • The 2.8% Congressional pay raise that the Democrat led Congress passed in 2009 will be repealed and Congress will then subsequently reduce their salaries by an additional 15%.
  • Link the salaries of federal legislators to the economy they manipulate.
  • Institute a four year federal hiring freeze on all non-essential emergency managemnet security, defense and medical related operations .
  • Reduce the federal payroll by eliminating non-essential, emergency management, security, defense and medical positions through attrition.
  • Obliterate the existing arcane, oppressive loophole ridden, unfair tax code and adopt a one-rate, Flat Tax Reform Act that does not ask any one American to pay a greater percentage than any other American. One rate for one America.
  • Dismantle the Departments of Commerce, Energy, Education and Housing and Urban Development.
  • Make healthcare and health insurance more accessible and more affordable by reducing the healthcare bureaucracy and improving the existing free market based healthcare system, expanding portability and adopting tort reforms.
  • Make no apologies for our defense of freedom and prosecute enemy combatants in military tribunals, not civilian courts.
  • Secure our borders and repair our broken immigration and immigration enforcement laws.

With these legislative goals, we hereby commit ourselves to restoring constitutional integrity to the federal government and seek to be more responsible stewards of the offices the people elect us to.

rwbbar

This Pledge of Commitment is a reform minded agenda that curbs the excesses of government, respects states rights and personal freedoms and demonstrates our desire to have a government that lives within its means and allows the people the means to achieve personal prosperity.

It is time that we accept the fact that the founding principles of yesterday were responsible for our nations strength in the past and are key to our nation’s and Party’s success in the future.

As the next year unfolds, with primaries and political debates, the next leaders of our Party will emerge. Currently, we are in transition. With many highly competitive Republican primaries taking place, slowly the new guard is replacing the old guard and the next generation of conservative leaders will slowly but surely emerge.

Until that time, with no leading figure, with no one face to represent us, it is important that all Republicans take this Pledge of Commitment. Without one great messenger to represent us, it is imperative that we act on the 10 goals outlined, together as one. Unity in our pledge is imperative to our ability to distinguish ourselves from Democrats as we move forward.

We are now just months away from the 2010 midterm elections. Currently, we have the chance for big gains. But these gains will only be realized if we stand for something and be more than naysayers. Our Pledge of Commitment represents very specific measures that indicate a new and clear direction for our nation. With this new direction, if we are united, the ripples that were set in motion by the perfect storm that swept a Republican into the United States Senate from Massachusetts, can be turned into waves that can sweep Republicans into office from New York to California.

As it stands now, of the 37 senate contests being held this November, 19 are occupied by Republicans and 18 by Democrats. If the G.O.P. can get on message and demonstrate how and why we are different from Democrats and why voters should have faith in us, our Party is on track to keeping all 19 Republican seats in our column.   At the same time, we are on track to take 7 seats away from Democrats……Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Nevada, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania.

If strong opponents emerge in Washington State and New York, Democrat Patty Murray’s seat could be in jeopardy as well as Kirsten Gillibrand’s seat in New York.  That would be 9 seats, for a total of 50. That’s  not enough to break a tie with Vice President Joe Biden as the President of the Senate, but add to that former Democrat but now current Independent Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut who has recently stated his possible willingness to become a Republican, and that would bring us to 51 Republican seats and control.

Another race that could come into play is California.

51 or 52 seats are unlikely though.

New York is becoming increasingly in play as Harold Ford, Jr. starts beating Giilibrand up,  but is not there yet.  republican susan molinari needs to enter the race.   Washington is probably out of reach, the California race is currently static, and Joe Lieberman won‘t switch until he  absolutely sure that  whatever move he makes assures him of being in hichever Party maintains majority status.

But a lock on picking up seven seats from Democrats is becoming very real. That would reduce liberal’s influence significantly and bring the balance of power much closer with 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans.

In the House, things are even more unstable for Democrats.

With 256 seats held by Democrats and 178 by Republicans (Democrat Rep. Robert Wexler’s Florida seat is vacant but sure to stay in Democrat hands) the G.O.P is looking like it will pick up a minimum of 27 seats which would bring a more balanced 205 Republicans to 230 Democrats. If all the stars were aligned in our favor and we successfully nationalized our campaigns, I see another 13 seats that could be in play. Remarkably, that would change the make up of the House and produce 218 Republican seats to 217 Democrat seats.

Taking control of either branch of Congress is not likely but it is possible. Whether that is achieved or not will depend on how strongly we unite as a Party and convince voters that we are devoted to our Pledge of Commitment. If we can convince voters of our sincere desires to take a more equitable, honest, transparent, and constitutional approach to governance, than even if we don’t take majority control of Congress, we will have made significant gains and put a stop to the partisan dictatorship that is currently reigning supreme in Washington, D.C. .

In addition to a strong, united campaign based on our Pledge of Commitment, strategic and logistical influences will be essential.

As we move ahead our Party must

  • Unite and get better organized, especially in the area of networking
  • Hammer home our anti-establishment, anti government sentiment and undying commitment to freedom and prosperity.
  • Add an emotional component to every issue.
  • Create new funding channels, including large numbers of small financial donations.
  • Use technology to organize activists, increase transparency, register voters, and change minds
  • Invite ideas from the public and develop a way to identify, develop and publicize the best ones.
  • Turn talk radio listeners into donors and activists and provide them with constructive and productive ways to help local candidates and national causes.
  • Tap into anti-government constituencies ( i.e.: Libertarians and Tea Partiers)
  • Poke fun at the Administrations promised “change” and their calls for transparency in government. Mock the “hope” the President was to bring.
  • Day and night, night and day, reinforce Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid as the faces and leaders of the Liberal Party.
  • Exploit all Democrat weaknesses.
  • Develop clear messages and have policy makers become message makers.
  • Create media markets and operating systems to inspire, generate and direct activism.
  • Work closely with all grassroots organizations.
  • Relentlessly exploit the weaknesses of key Democrat leaders.
  • Put new blood forward and present new ideas. Let voters know that old guard Republicans are on their way out.

The task at hand is daunting.

It took us years to find ourselves in minority status and it will take some time to get back to majority status. But Democrats are helping to measure the amount of time our journey takes in months rather than years.

The one thing in Democrats favor is the timing in which voter anger has been realized.

In 1994, when Republicans took control of both branches of Congress for the first time in four decades, the anti-incumbent sentiments were not fully understood until after the mid-term, when Democrat heads rolled. President Obama however, has the fortune of learning about voter dissatisfaction, almost a year before his mid-term elections.

The fact that the President has gone a full week without having a single major speech about healthcare indicates that he finally understands that people are not happy with his agenda and the way things are going. Further evidence of this new found understanding is his sudden attempts to sound fiscally responsible by trying to enforce a very limited spending freeze. On that, liberals are annoyed by the number of pet projects that would be killed by that move and conservatives are screaming about how too little and too late the President’s concerns with spending are. It’s like a fat man claiming to be on a diet because he drank a can of Slim Fast after a six course, 20,000 calorie meal.

But President Obama will surely begin to shift his focus. Since the voters spoke in Massachusetts he has begun to relentlessly attack any and all unpopular institutions, such as banks. It will be our job to remind voters why he has suddenly changed his agenda and what he changes it from while he still holds on to the hope of passing a massive government takeover of healthcare and some of the greatest transfers of power and wealth in the history of mankind. We must remind voters that President Obama and loyal liberal Democrats promised to “fundamentally change America” and then we must demonstrate that those fundamental changes were to the application of the U.S. Constitution which made us the greatest nation in the world………at least until he tried to make his fundamental changes.

Clearly the state of the Republican Party is promising. Many Republican leaders have learned from their past mistakes. Many who did not, are being flushed out through the primary process while others are retiring. Democrats are imploding and voters are open to viable alternatives. So the future is promising. What is questionable though is our ability to convincingly become that viable alternative and our willingness to roll up our sleeves and do what needs to be done to take advantage of the promising future that lies ahead.

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Poll Shows Incumbents Are At A Disadvantage In Today’s Elections

Bookmark and Share    A new poll conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates between the 27th and 29th of pollstersOctober has found that as voters go to the polls on this Election Day, they are anything but happy.

Of likely voters only 27% of the respondents consider health care the top issues of concern to them, 13 % believe that tackling the deficit and controlling government spending are the top priority but half of those likely to vote on Election Day (50%), claim that the economy and unemployment are the most important issue of all right now.

The poll also found that as voters head to the polls on Tuesday, 59% of them believe the nation is on the wrong track.

This means that a vast majority of Americans will be walking into voting booths and wanting a change in course and policy. This should frighten incumbents, maybe not those on the local levels which the bulk of the 2009 elections will be effecting, but those in state legislative elections and especially those in statewide elections have to be concerned. As the only incumbent Governor on the ballot this year, New Jersey’s Jon Corzine should probably be the most concerned as voters pull the lever throughout the day. Under the current atmosphere that this poll documents, incumbents like are at a disadvantage.

Ina generic ballot, when asked how likely voters feel about Congressional Republicans and Democrats, Republicans come out 7% ahead of their liberal counterparts. 42% prefer Congressional Republicans while 35% feel better about Democrats in the House and Senate.

Interestingly, the poll found likely to be evenly split concerning both their opinion of President Obama and his job approval rating. But on his health care and insurance reforms voters are not evenly split. When asked how they felt about President Obama’s health reform plans, 30% favor it while a decisive 12 % plurality for a total of 51% of likely voters oppose it.

How that will translate when individual members of Congress cast their votes which should reflect the opinion of their constituents is still not known. What is known though is that incumbent members of the Senate and the House are on shaky ground. Ultimately, that puts Democrat in much more trouble than Republicans. Since democrats have the majority, they also have more incumbents and these days incumbents are the enemy. That will give Republican challengers a distinct advantage as today’s election plays out and we move on toward the 2010 midterm elections.

Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates is an experienced and leading international survey research and strategic consulting for more than two decades. This particular poll was taken among 1,000 likely voters and it has yet to be entirety. According FMA, this survey also delves into the most completive13 Senate and 47 House races in the nation. Those opinions may offer greater insight into just how scared incumbents should be today, as well as next November.

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Election Eve 2009 Offers a Mix of Blowouts & Nail Biters But Republicans Look Good

Bookmark and Share    As voting on Election Day 2009 is about to begin in just a mere few hours, most of the races Election 2009taking place in America are municipal elections.  These local elections are in many ways, the most important ones.   The effects of the leaders elected on the local level have some of the greatest effects on a community and they certainly have the most immmeduate impact.  These municapal elections determine just about how everything is done, including that which begins at the state and federal levels.  While the federal government or your state government may daw up budget and allocate money to local governments,  it is your local municipality which actual spends it.  Will they spend it quickly?   Will they spend ity effectively?  Will they use it in ways that can be considered valuable investments for the future of the town you live in?

Local elections are indeed quite important.  They do not get the same amount of attention that the only two races for Governor get during this election cycle, but you have to be sure to give the local election in your neck of the woods, the attention it deserves.  

As for those much focussed on Governors races, as we approach the start of voting in New Jersey and Virginia it would seem that some trends are continuing and others are still evolving.

Creigh Deeds

Democrat Creigh Deeds

In The Old Dominion, Democrat Ceigh Deeds continues to plummet to earth without a parachute.  His campaign lacked any believable sense of responsible leadership and failed to convince a vast majority of Virginians that he can make things better for the people of the state.  Most of Deed’s campaign consisted of a focus on a college thesis that his Republican opponent wrote over twenty years ago.  The paper described working women and feminists as “detrimental” to the family and said government policy should favor married couples over “cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators.”

Republican Bob McDonnell explained that his college thesis did not reflect the opinions that age, time and experience have afforded him.  Hed even pointed to the career of his wife and his daughters military service in Iraq, as evidence of his feelings about women’s rights and equality. 

Bob McDonnell

Virginia Republican Bob McDonnell

The issue was the only hope that Deeds and Democrats had of turning his floundering campaign around.  It failed.  So Deeds did what all Democrats are doing right.  They try to morph themselves into President Obama and trying  hard to get the President to come in and campaign for them.    For Deeds, that too seems to be failing.  Currently he is bracing for a loss by a whopping 11% but possibly be by as much as 18%.   Such results should require an immediate apology from Deeds to the people of Virginia that excuse his failure to be a canddiate that anyone can take seriously.

The only real question in Virginia now is, how big will McConnell’s coat tails be and how many Republicans will he sweep into office in the Virginia state legislature.

In New Jersey, after blowing his own, one time, nearly 18% lead over Democrat Governor Jon Corzine, Republican Chris Christie fell behind Corzine.  As of last week Corzine was ahead of Christie by as much as 4% and 6%.  But now, in the closing hours just about every poll places Chris Christie ahead by 2% . A poll by Piblic Policy has him ahead by as 6% on this electeion eve.  RealClearPolitics closes out the race theis way:

  •  42.6%     Chris   Chris Christie (R)
  •  41.6%      Jon Corzine (D)
  •  10.4%     Chris Daggett (I)

The story here is that New Jersey Republicans mucked up this one and turned this once slam dunk win into a nailbiter.  Governor Corzine has been a dismal failure who produced more bad than good for New Jerseyans and everyone——-everyone knows it.  That is why Corzine, a horrible campaigner, has, like Creigh deeds in Virginia, turned to President Obama  to save him from the type of embarrassment that Deeds will have to endure.  But that alone is not responsible for Corzine’a ability to make this election competetive.  The rest of the reason is due to Chris Christie. 

He sucks. 

That’s it, plain and simple. 

He has absolutely no message, offers no convincing evidence of proper leadership and like Corzine, is also not a very good candidate on the campaign trail.

So here we are, looking at a toss up.  My gut tells me that Chrsitie will pull it out.  But I am not too sure about that.  If he does win, it will be a remarkable event and dramatic signal. 

Republican Chris Christie

Republican Chris Christie

Whether Democrats want to admit it or not, the election in New Jersey will be a referendum on President Obama.  Democrats have made sure of that.  They have tied Corzine and Deeds to Obama at the hip.  Corzine runs billboards of him standing behind the President with the slogan “Obama – Corzine”.  They are trying to get people to believe that a vote for Corzine is more a vote for President Obama than it is for the Governor.  So make no doubt, this election is a refendum on the President and the liberal leadership in Washington D.C.  This is made more clear by the fact that if a lackluster and down right horrible candidate like Chris Christie can win, it is not because anyone really likes him or his policies.  Christie has not dedtailed any policies, so who knows what he wants to do.  The only reason Christie could possibly win is because Corzine is so bad, that most people cannot deny it and they are not too pleased with the President either.

Adding to the miracle it will be if Chrtistie wins, is the third party candidacy of Chris Daggett.

Dagget is taking anywhere from 4 to 10% of the vote.  A significant portion of his votes would have been ballots cast for Christie, had Daggett not been in the race.  That puts Christie at an even greater disadvantage than Corzine.  Add to that the limit to under $11 million that Christie was able to spend in his campaign and compare it to the almost $40 million of  the persoanl wealth that Corzine invested into his own reelection effort.

All together, these things do not add up to a Christie victory.  Yet he just might do it.  Why?  Because people are fed up

Chris Daggett New Jersey Independent

Independent Chris Daggett

 and they don’t buy President Obama’s faslse hope claims.   They also know that voting to reelcet Corzine is like buying a ticket on the Hidenburg or the Titanic.   So this one will be clos, despite all of the President’s campaigning for Corzine in New Jersey.   The reason I am not convinced that Christie will win  is because I fear that the strategy Corzine went with , may work among an electorate that is not excited by his opponent Chris Christie.

Corzine has focussed on drawing out an unsusally high Jewish and Africa-American vote.  Hoping that many of the other ethnic groups in the state will be evenly split, Jon Corzine has put all his money on attracting the record African-American voter turnout that existed for the President in 2008.   Governor Corzine has been trying to on a formula that Democrats hope will allow him to recieve at least 1 more vote than Chris Christie. Between his focus on the African American community  and special attention to the Jewish community, the Governor and his Lieutenant Governor running mate,  Lorreta Weinberg are hoping that it will provide the votes needed to win.  

For a Governor who has been so bad that he needs a miracle to win, that stategy is a Hail Mary pass of sorts, but it is all Corzine has.

Corzine Obama billboardIn the end, I am not sure the formula will add up, but Christie is so bad that it just might be enough.  For now though, I believe that despite all that is against Christie.  Despite his poor campaign, lack of money and there being no reason to vote for him other than to send a message to Democrats, I think the miracle will, God help us, be Christie’s. 

Beyond the two big statewide races, there is of course New York 23, the special election for to fill a vacant congressional seat.  Republican Dede Socazzafava turned this race into a national fracas.  As a pure liberal, many questioned how and why she was the republican nominee.  In came Doug Hoffman, a man of no great import accept for the fact that he is conservative.  So many flocked to his candidacy that in the end Scozzafava dropped out and endorsed the Democrat Bill Owens.

This congressional seat has been in Republican hands since the Civil War.   If Owens wins, the GOP can thank Scozzafava and she claim to have made history.  The race is so far too close to call but a goof GOTV operation could make all the difference here. 

The only other race of mention is New York City, where the once republicam Mayor Mike Bllomberg circumvented term limits to run for a third time.  New York is a 5 to 1 Democrat to Republican city.  Yet despite the Citys’ Democrat instincts, they have not elected a Democrat to the position of Mayor since 1993.  They have been so incredibly incompetent in New york City that even fellow Democrats don’t like their party much.  After Democrat Mayor David Dinkins drove New York City into  a coma and Republican Rudy Giuliani brought it back to life, City residents began to look at their choices.  In doing so, they have not liked what the Democrat Party had to offer.  So even though they hate Republicans, they voyed for them.

Now, Democrats are running the City’s Comptroller, an  African-American man named William Thompson.   You would think that with all the campaigning that President Obama has been doing for fellow Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey, he might at least show up once in New York City to help a brutha out.  But Democrats in New York are so pittiful that even President Obama isn’t lending his name to their nominee for Mayor. 

William Thompson

Democrat mayoral Nominee Bill Thompson

The only suspense in this race is if Bloomberg can win by as much as 12 to 15%.  Thompson has been tightening things up in the last few days but he is so far behind that he the best he probably can do is to only lose by as much 8 to 10%.   Yet, you are soon led to understand that losing by 8 to 10% is not bad when you examine the situation in NYC.  Especially when you  factor in the money that Mike Bloomberg is investing into his own campaign for Mayor. 

Mayor Mike has broken just about every spending record for political campaigns, there is. 

In this run for mayor, Bloomberg  is spending more than $85 million.   Bill Thompson  is spending a  measly $8 million dollars.  It is a  campaign budget that can’t possibly  compete with the Mayor’s campaign which is financed by Bloomberg’s personal net worth of more than  $17 billion bucks. 

NYC Mayor Mike BloombergTo put Mike Bloomberg’s spending into perspective,  consider this.   The wealthy Jon Corzine has so far spebt $130 million of his own money on one senate race and two races for Governor.  Money magnate Steve Forbes spent $114 million in his two races for the Republican  presidential nomination and the eccentric Ross Perot invested $75 million in his two bids for President. 

What has Mike Bllomberg spent so far,  in his three mayoral races?

More than $250 million dollars.

So tomorrow, I don’t know when i’m voting, but I do know that I’m heading to New York City where the real money is.  All these other fools are trying to be President Obama, when they could be getting on the good side of a man who wont waste time  trying to get your vote.  He spends his time buying your vote.

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Maine Senator Susan Collins May Be Second Republican To Support Healthcare Reform

Bookmark and Share   After the Senate Finance Committee voted 14 to 9 in favor of their version of health management and care reform, today Democrats met behind closed doors to try to merge House and Senate versions Susan%20Collinsof health insurance and care reforms into one bill.

While that was going Maine Senator Susan Collins announced that she is willing to vote for the final version of the bill so long as it lowers insurance costs.

Her declaration was actually asinine. At this point in time, the process that is developing the legislation that will come before Congress for a vote, is strictly a partisan one. It is one that Senator Collins and her Republican colleagues are essentially shut out of. As such, to claim that she will support the bill, simply if it lowers insurance costs is irresponsible. Democrats could easily produce legislation that easily meets Senator Collins very broad standard of lower insurance rates. They could actually lower rates by raising taxes and costs on everything else. That would simply shift costs on to other expenses. But, technically, it would do what the Senator said is the only thing the bill should do in order for her to vote for it.

After the other Senator from Maine, Olympia Snowe, became the only Republican on the Senate Finance Committee to come out and vote the healthcare bill before them, out of committee, she made it clear that she was simply voting for it in order to allow the process to continue. She indicated that if the process continues effectively and purposefully, it will afford the opportunity to make some of the changes that she feels the bill needs.

So long as negotiations that merge the House and Senate versions together, take place behind closed doors, that process is not being conducted fairly. It refuses to accept Republican suggestions and alternatives. That leaves little chance of adopting the changes that Olympia Snowe feels are needed. Regrettably, Senator Snowe herself made a true bipartisan effort on healthcare difficult to make happen. By casting her vote for the bill in committee, her lone Republican vote gives Democrats the opportunity to claim bipartisan support for the reforms that they propose. Even though Republicans have no say in what will come before them, Snowe’s vote allows Democrats to make the false claim that Republicans are a part of the process.

In other words, Senator Snowe did not help to get any of the reforms that Republicans feel are truly needed in keeping healthcare and keeping insurance costs down. And now her fellow Senator from Maine comes out and follows Snowe’s lead. Both of them have essentially sold it.

If Susan Collins needed to say anything on the issue, it should have went like this;

“Unless Democrats include tort reforms that will go a long way in holding down insurance costs and unless they create ways for insurance portability that will go a long way in maintaining access to affordable insurance and open choices and competition, then I will not even consider the bill that they hastily hammer out without any input from all sides of the aisle”.

The last thing Senators Collins and Snowe should have done was suggest that they will rollover for the Democrat majorities that want to steamroll an insurance reform package that creates mandates and higher fees and taxes.

The encouraging words that Collins offered to Democrats today, have helped to inspire Senate majority leader Harry Reid to reiterate his intention to speed up whatever comes out of his closed door negotiations and rush it to vote before years end. This in turn led Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell to state that whatever the Democrats throw on the table, there should at least be a month of debate on the important issue.

The debate on the final version of the bill could offer the last chance for bipartisanship. If legitimate debate is allowed to be conducted, republicans could have the chance to propose amendments that, if given consideration, could possibly improve whatever Democrats lay on the table.

That has yet to be seen though.

As for Senators Snowe and Collins, I can’t help but feel that in light of their individual refusals to challenge Democrats to create a better package of healthcare reforms, perhaps it is time that they be challenged. Perhaps it is time they face a primary challenge for the Republican nomination for Senate next time they come up for reelection.

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Democrats Afraid of a Return To Average Black Voter Turnout Numbers

Bookmark and Share   According to a Aaron Blake at The Hill, Democrats are fearing that a drop off in African-American votes in coming elections that do not feature President Obama on the ballot, could be quite detrimental to Racial Politicstheir election and reelection efforts.

This fear is playing itself out in the elections for governor and state legislative seats in Virginia and New Jersey which are about three weeks away. I previously illustrated evidence of this concern among Democrats, more specifically the concerns on the issue that New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine has.

I pointed to a slew of billboards the Governor has purchased in predominantly African-American neighborhoods. The billboards display an image of President Obama at a podium and off to the right, in the background, is the image of Jon Corzine. The bold tag line that goes along with the imagery reads “Keep it Going”.

What we are suppose to “keep going” is left to your own imagination but it is more than likely intended to mean that we should keep the work of President Obama going and that, by electing Jon Corzine, we will continue to do just that under Jon Corzine. Being strategically placed only in predominantly black communities, these billboards are obviously meant to inspire African-Americans and convince them that a vote for Governor Corzine is a vote for Barack Obama, even if the president isn’t on the ballot.

corzine bama billboardThe intended message behind the ad is, to say the least, shallow but that is the essence of the entire race for governor in New Jersey. There are no clear, concrete plans being offered by any of the candidates for governor that offer a hint of how they will improve the quality of life in New Jersey. In Governor Corzine’s case that is particularly true.

For Corzine’s main opponent, Republican Chris Christie, his campaign is banking on that being anyone other than Corzine is enough to pull him through to victory. Independent candidate Chris Daggett is hoping that not being either Corzine or Christie will make him the next Governor. But Jon Corzine, with no record of accomplishment to point to, is counting on strong voter turnout among traditionally Democrat sectors. The focus of that strategy is centered on African-American and Jewish voters. Such is why the Governor has focused on bringing people like Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz to campaign for him among select New Jersey communities. It is one reason why he picked an obscure state legislator to be his running mate for Lieutenant Governor. When receiving the nomination from Corzine, State Senator Loretta Weinberg defined herself a fiesty Jewish Grandmother and had been running on that ever since.

But it is the African-American vote he mainly focuses on.

Since being re-nominated by Democrats, Governor Corzine has linked his name to President Barack Obama in every breath he takes. He has tried to morph Republican Chris Christie into George W. Bush and even tries to run against Christie, a former federal prosecutor, to Bush’s first Attorney General, John Ashcroft. In addition to that and evoking Obama’s name every chance he gets, Corzine has brought the President in for rallies and is desperately trying to get him back for more. Until then though, he is using images that cast him as the President’s shadow.

All of this, I repeat, all of this, is based on the need for the type of extraordinarily large African-American voter turnout that New Jersey and the nation saw in 2008 when President Obama was on the ballot.

He is not alone.

Democrats nationwide are begining to shake in their boots at the thought of not having the ballot draw of President Obama above their names come this and next November. A Washington Post survey estimates that the African-American voter turnout in this year’s race governor in Virginia to be around 12%, 40% lower than last year. According to The Hill, in New Jersey, the black population is “unmoved” in the race for Governor. Abnormally high black turnout seen in 2008 which offset Republican turnout in proportions too hard to overcome, will not occur in 2009 and the same seems to be true for next year’s nationwide, mid-term elections.

According to Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen, If what looks like is going to happen in Virginia plays out on a national level, I do think Democrats will lose the House”. That comes from a partisan polling outfit, a leading partisan Democrat polling outfit.

Virginia’s African-American population is 20% while New Jersey’s stands at 14%. Both are substantial and while their unprecedented turnout in 2008 had a significant impact in the presidential race, it had an even stronger impact on local races. In many congressional districts, they provided the pivotal power that cost Republicans several seats in the House. However, in two special elections held in Louisiana after the race for President, Republicans won both seats away from Democrats, including one in a predominantly African-American, New Orleans district. This was in large part due to the fact that the President was not on the ballot and did not attract the larger than normal black voter turnout that helped Democrats win in ‘08.

In addition to a return to average black voter turnout in the coming elections, many expect fewer young voters to show up at the polls. President Obama captured the imaginations of many younger voters. His own youth and allure of change made many even register and vote for the first time. His not being on the ballot is more than likely to return the attendance numbers of young voters back to pre-Obama levels. Both will put democrats at a disadvantage come the next two Novembers.

All of this raises two questions and points.

First; Was President Obama simply elected because he was black? Many had wondered if it was impossible for him to get elected because they feared his color would prevent Caucasians to vote for him. As it turned it, considering the almost unanimous vote for Barack Obama from blacks because he is black, it would seem that the more pertinent question is not if being African-American would have prevented Barack Obama from getting “elected” but rather if his being African-American was the reason “why” he got elected.

It makes us have to wonder if in fact race is still not a problem but not the way we expected. Plenty of Caucasians voted for African-American Barack Obama, but few if any blacks voted for white John McCain. So is the real problem reverse racism?

The other question that must be tackled is, when will the Republican Party begin to appeal to black voters?

Republican Jack Kemp devoted much time and energy to delivering the Republican message of independence, self-reliance, prosperity and personal strength over government power. He tried to take this message to, as he put it, “the inner-cities”. He was right, but he was alone. Many

Republicans simply feel that it is impossible to receive support from African-Americans and the truth is that it is not impossible.

Until they deal with that truth, Republicans will have to consistently hope for “low voter turnout” to win elections and that is just not right. Our message is an inclusive one. Freedom, prosperity, education, personal empowerment are not terms limited to white people. They are terms that should inspire all Americans regardless of background or color. Until the G.O.P. realizes that, they will always be a marginal power in America.

As for Democrats, they too need stop relying on racial politics. They need to be able to campaign among all the population, not just use billboards in black communities designed to appeal strictly to African-American racial pride over their life conditions and the quality of life that their government limits them to.

Until Democrats accept that truth, they will have to count on the color of President Obama’s skin and his placement on the ballot as their sole opportunikty to stay in power. That is not an enduring strategy. President Obama is likely to be on the ballot only one more time and at this point in time, that isn’t even a sure thing yet.

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Connecticut and Dodd the Dud Is Yet Another Faultline For Democrats In 2010

Bookmark and Share   In 2008 Connecticut Democrat Senator Chris Dodd was running for the Democrat’s presidential nomination. Now as 2010 approaches he is running for his political life and more and more it is looking like that race will be as successful as his run for President. As a major player in the regulatory schemes that helped bring the DoddDudU4Prezhousing and finance markets to their knees and ushered in the economic crisis that confronts us today, the doldrums that Dodd wades into among Connecticut voters is well deserved.

As Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee Chris Dodd, along with his counterpart, Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Banking, Barney “Elmer Fudd” Frank of Massachusetts, led the way for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to enter into an unprecedented level of issuing trillions of dollars in low-risk investments that were only sustainable if real estate prices continued rising.

The problem is that real estate prices ceased to rise and started to fall. By the time this reversal took place, it was too late. The lack of liquidity that stemmed from the defaulting of the excessive overextended volume of sub-prime loans began to tighten up the lending of money throughout the entire banking and finance markets and the worldwide credit crunch and economic crisis that we face was born.

It did not have to happen.

In 2005 Alan Greenspan warned Congress of the urgent need to tighten regulations on the systemic abuse that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were partaking in. Before Congress he testified that “if Fannie and Freddie continue to grow, continue to have the low capital that they have, continue to engage in the dynamic hedging of their portfolios, which they need to do for interest rate risk aversion, they potentially create ever-growing potential systemic risk down the road,” he said. “We are placing the total financial system of the future at a substantial risk.”

The advice and circumstances prompted Republicans in 2006 to sponsor new regulations that would have placed the two housing lenders under strict requirements that would have severely limited their ability to take excessive risks and would have corrected illegitimate recording practices that they were participating in. They would have also averted financial ruin.

Chris Dodd rejected these corrective measures. And while refusing to adopt these regulatory measures, he was simultaneously collecting oodles of dollars from Fannie and Freddie and became the largest recipient of campaign contributions from the very entities that he refused to correct.

Another words, Dodd dodged efforts that would have helped to stem the troubling tide of the economic red ink and financial calamity that we found ourselves awash in during 2008.

You can try to put the blame on someone else. You can try to blame it on Bush and you can accuse me of falsifying the factual record on this issue but you would lying. The truth is that President G.W. Bush and his administration called for tighter regulation of government sponsored enterprises (GSEs), including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for a total of seventeen times.

On top of that, Republicans sponsored legislation aimed specifically at the tighter regulations and more accurate recording practices that the President and Alan Greenspan asked for. The measure, S.190, was sponsored By Republican Chuck Hagle and co-sponsored by Republican Senators Elizabeth Dole, John Sununu and Senator and former Republican nominee for President John McCain. But with Dodd at the helm of the banking committee, Republicans couldn’t even get the Senate to vote on the matter.

In the meantime while Dodd stalled efforts to avert financial ruin and campaigned for President in Iowa, Fannie and Freddie spat out a trillion dollars worth of sub-prime mortgages between 2005 and 2007 and by 2008, money stopped flowing throughout our nation.

The facts have forced some like Democrat Congressman Artur Davis of Alabama to state, “like a lot of my Democratic colleagues I was too slow to appreciate the recklessness of Fannie and Freddie. I defended their efforts to encourage affordable homeownership when in retrospect I should have heeded the concerns raised by their regulator in 2004. Frankly, I wish my Democratic colleagues would admit when it comes to Fannie and Freddie, we were wrong.”

But the reality of the circumstances which force Dodd to shoulder the largest share of blame for the financial catastrophe that we must endure is not the only burden he must bear as he runs for a fifth term in the United States Senate.

After refusing to stem the economic crisis that Dodd and Democrats could have averted, the Connecticut Senator found himself in the key position of shaping the legislative bailout of Countrywide Financial Corp., a company that found itself needing bailout bucks after operating under the regulatory practices that Dodd refused to reform.

But this brought rise to an ugly conflict of interest. It was discovered that in two separate sweetheart deals, Dodd was the recipient of two cut-rate mortgages of nearly $800,000 from Countrywide Financial. The political favoritism that Countrywide afforded to the Chairman of the senate committee that oversees their business practices is seen as, to say the least, shady and Senator Dodd has not been forthcoming with the details of the arrangements. Instead, without remorse he has promised to refinance the Countrywide deals, which would save him at least $70,000 over the life of the mortgages.

Then in February of this year, after bailing out AIG, Dodd slipped an amendment into the stimulus bill that ensured that executives of firms bailed out by the government could still collect already contracted bonuses. When this slight of hand came to light, Dodd denied doing it. An intense barrage of outright public indignation forced a glaring spotlight on Dodd until he finally admitted to being responsible for the amendment but ultimately he claimed that President Obama made him do it.

Now after being the first Democrat to throw his Democrat President under the bus, a slew of recent improprieties and slights of hand and a prior history of questionable real estate and financing schemes extending from as far back as 1986, Dodd must confront a very leery and disgruntled Connecticut electorate.

With a negative rating for him of anywhere from 38% to 42%, voters in the Nutmeg State have Chris Dodd trailing his likely Republican opponent Rob Simmons by 9%.

A closer look at the most recent Quinnipiac poll that reveals this troubling news for Dodd shows that while the incumbent Senator has somewhat solidified his base Democrat vote with 74% of them willing to again vote for him, his support among the state’s Independent voters continues to slide and Simmons has leaped out to a 29% lead over Dodd among them. With 87% of all Connecticut Republicans declaring confidence in their likely nominee and an overwhelming preponderance of Independent voters also inclined to support him, the numbers seem to add up to an end to Dodd’s almost three decades in the Senate and his lifetime of financial scheming.

As a former Congressman Rob Simmons has a record that could, at best, be considered moderate. It certainly isn’t one that could be construed as that of a cutting edge conservative.

For those of my school of thought, that would not exactly make Rob Simmons my first choice for a senate seat but we are talking about Connecticut. This is a state that, on occassion, considers Joe Lieberman too conservative for their liking so perhaps Simmons is the closest to being a voice of sanity that we can expect out if this region of New England.

But the story here is less the fact that Simmons seems to be in a position to give Dodd a run for his money than it is the fact that Dodd has become a total dud.

In a previous post I pointed out the many instances where conservatives are mounting challenges to the Republican establishment and to the wing of moderates who have compromised away too many of the principles that make us Republicans. I also pointed out that in addition to this emergence of more traditional Republicans some successes of the G.O.P. in 2010 will be brought about by the mere ineptness of many of the Democrats that they will be challenging. The Simmons-Dodd race is just another such example of the latter as Chris Dodd proves himself to be one of the most inept Democrats of all.

So as 2010 approaches, look for Connecticut to provide one of the tremors that will lead to a political earthquake that shifts the tectonic plates of ideological influence and shapes a new landscape on Capitol Hill in the not too distant future.

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IS INTIMIDATION SHAPING THE ELECTION ?

antpantherj1ACORN offers cigarettes to register the homeless to vote multiple times. Identification is not needed to prove you are who you say you are when voting. New Yorkers register false addresses in Ohio to change that states results. Mickey Mouse is even registered to vote for Obama in Florida. Members of the National Football league are erroneously registered to vote in Nevada ……

These are just some examples of the fraud being used to put Barack Obama over the top in the 2008 and election. Examples like this are widespread. They have sparked countless federal and state investigations but now, during the final hours of our historic quadrennial election, intimidation kicks into high gear.

Confirmed reports have just been released detailing that two Black Panthers have been guarding entranceways into polling places in Philadelphia. One brandished a nightstick. When asked to remove himself from the property the Obama enforcer refused.

Philadelphia police had to escort the Black Panther away.

Random incident?antfists6

Nothing that occurs in the Obama campaign is random. Voter fraud is sponsored by the Obama/Biden campaign through coordinated activities with ACORN and so is their “Give Over Your Vote” effort.

Is there a racial component to all this? Well liberals will accuse the delivery of these facts to be racist propoganda. But when considering the facts in this case, critics of voter intimidation would say that a Black Panther guarding the entrance to a polling site has a racial component to it. The Obama enforcers refusing to leave while shouting “you can’t stop a black man from winning this election” just confirms it.

If Black Panthers with nightsticks are being used as poll workers, I can’t wait to see what type of people will be used to fill out the presidential cabinet of a Barack Obama administration.

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