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Paul Ryan for President

Bookmark and Share    ”If Ryan does decide to run, win or lose, I will be behind him either until he wins the nomination and the presidency or ends his campaign.”  -Anthony Del Pellegrino, aka: Kempite

 
Reports have indicated that Wisconsin Congressman and Chairman of the House Budget Committee Paul. Ryan is in the final stages of deciding on a presidential run. According to The Weekly Standard’s Stephen Hayes, Ryan associates have been quietly going around and laying the groundwork for a run which has included establishing the deadlines for gaining ballot access to the ballot in each of the 50 states. Hayes reports that Ryan has been discussing the possibilities of running with advisors and close firlends about a run since last spring. He further adds that Congressman Ryan had been expecting Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels to run and he was looking forward to a Daniels candidacy. But after a call from Governor Daniels to Ryan to give him a heads about his decision not to run, Ryan’s thinking about a run for President changed profoundly.

Hayes also reports that a Republican source close to Ryan, claims the Congressman is;

“coming around,” and adds “With Paul, it’s more about obligation than opportunity,” says another Wisconsin Republican. “He is determined to have the 2012 election be about the big things. If that means he has to run, he’s open to it.”

For its part Roll Call reports that the Congressman discussed the matter with House Speaker John Boehner when the subject of a spot on the Joint Committee on Deficit Reduction arose.

But Roll Call also reports that while Paul Ryan is considering a run for president he is unlikely not to run for the same reasons that held him back so far……….to avoid the fundraising and political demands that would keep him away from his family for extended periods. Another consideration for Paul Ryan would also be the possibility of losing the election and losing his influential position of the House Budget Committee where he is doing good and critically important work.

Much of the speculation about Ryan’s possible presidential candidacy arose from a talk show interview the Congressman conducted by Charlie Sykes, a Milwaukee based radio show host. That exchange went as follows:

Sykes :  “Looking at the Republican field right now, are you confident that the candidates there are able to articulate the issues of the debt and the deficit and the need to reform entitlements in the way that you want to see done?”

Ryan :  (laughing) “Why did you ask me that?”

Sykes“You know exactly why I asked you that question.”

Ryan :  “I know. We’ll see. I didn’t see it last night. I haven’t seen it to date. We’ll see. People’s campaigns evolve – they get better. So we’ll see.”

Ryan :  “Look, the way I see 2012 – we owe it to the country to let them choose the path they want our country to take. And I just have yet to see a strong and principled articulation of the kind of limited government, opportunity society path that we would provide as an alternative to the Obama cradle to grave welfare state.”

Sykes :  “Do you think that it is absolutely essential that there be a Republican candidate who is able to articulate…”

Ryan : (cutting Sykes off) “I do. Because this is how we get our country back. We do it through a referendum letting the country pick the path not by having a committee of 12 people pick the path or not by having just the inertia of just letting the status quo just stumble through by winning a campaign based on dividing people.”

Sykes :  You understands why people think that person should be you?.”

Ryan :  “Well, I keep hearing that. I’m hoping that people will step up and I’m hoping that somebody – I can help them fashion this. You know my story and you know my answer – and I haven’t changed it. We’ve got a long way to go. There’s 15 months left.”

The interview which was conducted last Tuesday, came before the official entry of Texas Governor Rick Perry, who as of today, according to a Rasmussen survey finds Perry the frontrunner in the race ahead of Mitt Romney by 11% and Michele Bachmann by 17%.

Whether or not Congressman Ryan believes that Rick Perry is the candidate who can offer the “strong and principled articulation of the kind of limited government, opportunity society path” that we need,  has yet to be seen, but either way, the Congressman can’t really wait much longer to decide. The very latest he can get into the game would be October. Anything beyond that will be placing any chance for the successful financing and organizing of a campaign a a great disadvantage that will be hard to overcome.

Much like Paul Ryan, my thinking about the Republican presidential race also changed “profoundly” when Governor Mitch Daniels decided not to seek the nomination. For me, Mitch Daniels was one of the best qualified people to address our predominant economic problems and was a candidate with whom a good campaign to defeat the President could have been built around. With Daniels out, and others like Sarah Palin not in, while I have found many things I liked about such people as Mitt Romney, I have not yet  been confident enough to throw my support behind any of them. But that will not be the case if Paul Ryan runs. If Ryan runs, White House 2012, the sister blog of POLITICS 24/7  will have itself a Ryan 2012 correspondent in me.

Paul Ryan represents the true future of the G.O.P. and as a fiscally responsible leader he is just what America needs. He is a new generation Republican, one who works from the premise of what is best for the nation, not for his poll numbers. That kind of thinking may not win a him the nomination through the type of popularity contest that is today’s politics, but it is the type of honesty that American voters should welcome and demand.

At some point one must stand behind what they believe in not just what they think will win. And beyond any shadow of any doubt, I believe in Paul Ryan , therefore if Ryan does decide to run, win or lose, I will be behind him either until he wins the nomination and the presidency or ends his campaign.

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The G.O.P.’s Last Chance & The Republican Pledge To America

Facsimile of the original draft of the United ...

A New Contract

Bookmark and Share    Congressional Republicans have finally adopted a message to stand behind in this November’s mid-term elections and beyond.  I personally believe it lacks the type of specific legislation action that Americans can truly wrap their heads around.  But the Pledge To America is strong and with the use of  somewhat broad strokes, hopefully it is a pledge that will not be lost on deaf ears, for as a whole, the Republican Party has failed to live up to the principles of the ideology that differentiate them from today’s liberal-Democrats. 

That failure has given rise to the TEA Party movement.

Now with Republicans seemingly having finally understood why they lost control of Congress and the White House, they have drafted a pledge that directly fulfills the desires of the TEA movemnet.

Many months ago, I proposed a  pledge which outlined specific legislative goals, I called it the Pledge of Committment.  I felt it was neccessary then to rally behind a set of goals that would help nationalize the election and turn the wrongly defined “Party of No” into the Party that has a mission and that stands for something more than more government.  The pledge the G.O.P. has settled upon now is late in the game but it is a solid one, one that conveys a sense of understanding by Republicans, unde4rstanding of what the people want.

Now the only question is, will the G.O.P. live up to the committment?  Will they remain as unwavering in their pledge as the TEA Party members who helped give rise to that pledge?  Will Republicans remain unwavering in the face of a President whom opposes all that the people want?  Only time will tell, but this is probably the last time Republicans will have a chance like this again, so they better not blow it.

The pledge is powerful and it strikes the emotional and constitutional chords that a vast majority agree with, but if the collective actions of Republicans who hold office betray these powerful words over the next two years and prove that these words are hollow political points, than Republicans will be lost in the wilderness for decades to come.

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The Republican Pledge To America

America is more than a country.

America is an idea – an idea that free people can govern themselves, that government’s powers are derived from the consent of the governed, that each of us is endowed by their Creator with the unalienable rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. America is the belief that any man or woman can – given economic, political, and religious liberty – advance themselves, their families, and the common good.

America is an inspiration to those who yearn to be free and have the ability and the dignity to determine their own destiny.

Whenever the agenda of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to institute a new governing agenda and set a different course.

These first principles were proclaimed in the Declaration of Independence, enshrined in the Constitution, and have endured through hard sacrifice and commitment by generations of Americans. In a self-governing society, the only bulwark against the power of the state is the consent of the governed, and regarding the policies of the current government, the governed do not consent.

An unchecked executive, a compliant legislature, and an overreaching judiciary have combined to thwart the will of the people and overturn their votes and their values, striking down long-standing laws and institutions and scorning the deepest beliefs of the American people.

An arrogant and out-of-touch government of self-appointed elites makes decisions, issues mandates, and enacts laws without accepting or requesting the input of the many.

Rising joblessness, crushing debt, and a polarizing political environment are fraying the bonds among our people and blurring our sense of national purpose. Like free peoples of the past, our citizens refuse to accommodate a government that believes it can replace the will of the people with its own. The American people are speaking out, demanding that we realign our country’s compass with its founding principles and apply those principles to solve our common problems for the common good. The need for urgent action to repair our economy and reclaim our government for the people cannot be overstated. With this document, we pledge to dedicate ourselves to the task of reconnecting our highest aspirations to the permanent truths of our founding by keeping faith with the values our nation was founded on, the principles we stand for, and the priorities of our people. This is our Pledge to America.

We pledge to honor the Constitution as constructed by its framers and honor the original intent of those precepts that have been consistently ignored – particularly the Tenth Amendment, which grants that all powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.

We pledge to advance policies that promote greater liberty, wider opportunity, a robust defense, and national economic prosperity. We pledge to honor families, traditional marriage, life, and the private and faith-based organizations that form the core of our American values.

We pledge to make government more transparent in its actions, careful in its stewardship, and honest in its dealings.

We pledge to uphold the purpose and promise of a better America, knowing that to whom much is given, much is expected and that the blessings of our liberty buoy the hopes of mankind.

We make this pledge bearing true faith and allegiance to the people we represent, and we invite fellow citizens and patriots to join us in forming a new governing agenda for America.

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Reconstruction For Everyone!!: A perspective of The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

A POLITICS 24/7 guest editorial by Mike Duminiak
  Bookmark and Share  In 1867, Congress passed the first Reconstruction Act. Its purpose was to force the re-engineering of society in the Southern States and to redistribute the wealth in that region. reconstructionOn the first count, it was entirely a failure and actually resulted in a backlash that undid the progress made in 1865-66 and resulted in a worse position for blacks for nearly 100 years than they had during the immediate post-war period of local reconstruction. On the second count it succeeded, but not in the way the people had expected. Rather than redistribute the wealth to the poor and former slaves, instead all the wealth in the South was transferred to banks and various businesses owned and operated by Northern industrialists and financiers. When the decade of forced reconstruction finally ended, the South was bankrupt, the people were betrayed and the society was driven to social radicalism for the next 90 years.

In 2009, Congress passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Its purpose is to force the re-engineering of the economy in the United States and to redistribute the wealth in that nation. Its ultimate outcome has yet to be written, but the beginnings of its implementation may be a strong indicator. It is the banks and large corporations that are the beneficiaries of the redistribution of wealth. To them is going the tax revenue of generations. We see also that it is filled with pork barrel spending on projects that are politically connected to major campaign contributors and businesses with financial ties to politicians.

It is yet to be known whether this new era of Reconstruction will also require the use of troops to force its implementation when the people start to complain that it is doing more harm than good. It is yet to be known whether this new era of Reconstruction will result in the same backlash as the first when opposition forces eventually regain control of government. It is yet to be known just how bankrupt the national treasury will be and how grossly enriched the banks and corporations will be when this new era of Reconstruction ends.

The deciding factors on those issues will be what else this radical Congress pushes through. The radical Congress of 1867-68 passed numerous acts that combined to result in all the immediate destruction and later retribution. If this radical Congress also continues down its current path and adds more fuel to the fire, the damage and the reaction will be all that much stronger. If this radical Congress pushes its agenda to the breaking point of the average citizen as the radical 1867-68 Congress did, this nation could see a massive shift in political power equal to or even greater than the 100 years of single party control that resulted from the first major attempt at re-engineering and redistribution.

While we will all pay the price for the reckless and truly criminal transfer of wealth from the people to the banking and corporate interests, conservatives may come out the big winners. If history repeats itself (and it is doing a pretty good job so far), strong conservatives will capture the government and hold it for a long period. Even moderates on the right may be unpopular as the public will shifts radically away from the policies and ideology that raped their treasury, increased their tax burden, destroyed their economy and curtailed their liberty.

As the economy worsens and the true face of the current actions of Congress becomes apparent to the people, we should all pray that the kinds of insurrectionary vigilantism that cropped up in 1868-1870s are not repeated in the modern era. However, desperate people can often resort to desperate actions. Should the unemployment rate continue to climb and the banks continue to profit off the government treasury, the probability of renegade violence will escalate. Even the current supporters of the radicals now in power are likely to turn violent when the promises fail to materialize, as happened in the first Reconstruction era when the former slaves were left to literally starve to death without jobs, homes or food while banks and corporations raided the various State treasuries under U.S. control. Riots may not be far off when all the impossible promises that fail to materialize combine with worsening economic conditions. We should all pray that violence is avoided, but that may not be enough.

A large segment of the population believed that the “bottom rail was on top” with this past election. Yet, if anything, the bottom rail is being stomped down further by bad economic conditions while the top rail is being elevated with government bail-outs and pork spending. Right now the blinders are still on most citizens, but they are coming off in increasing numbers. When the inevitable inflation comes from the insane creation of money that was done and given to the banks, the true result of the current radical Congress’s actions will be apparent to everyone. The first Reconstruction was bad for everyone except the banks and corporations. This one will be no different except that the whole country will suffer under it instead of just one region.  Bookmark and Share

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THE ALARM BELLS ARE RINGING YET IMMIGRATION REFORM IS STILL ON THE BACK BURNER

Digg!Last year, In Iraq,  5,908 civilians and Iraqi soldiers and police were killed between January 1, 2008 and December 29, 2008.

Members of the police carry a coffin of one of their own. Seven police employees were killed in the same incident that took this fallen officers life

Members of the police carry a coffin of one of their own. Seven police employees were killed in the same incident that took this fallen officers life

In Mexico, 5,376 Mexican federal agents, police and civilians who were killed  by drug traders during the same time period.

So it can be safely said that nearly as many Mexicans died as a result of drug terrorists as did Iraqi’s from the terrorism in their war torn nation.

All of us are aware of the threats posed by terrorism. 9/11 brought that fact home and since the events of September 11, 2001, America has been on guard and on the offense in that War On Terror. Since that dreadful day and our somewhat official declaration of War on Terror, not a single attack has again taken place on American soil.

That is quite a contrast from the record that we accumulated in the decades since we declared the War On Drugs.

The term “war on drugs’ was first used by President Richard Nixon in 1971. At the time it was a play on the well known “War On Poverty” penned by the administration of President Lyndon B. Johnson in the mid 60’s. The technical aspects of the War On Drugs have varied over time but it’s basic strategy has remained the same……. employ the cooperation of other nations to eliminate the illegal drug trade and eliminate the selling and use of illegal drugs through an aggressive zero tolerance, law enforcement agenda and a persistent and wide spread anti-drug education program and campaign.

To some degree, it has helped but the amount of time and money spent on the effort has produced results that are less than stellar. The rate of success in the War On Drugs certainly would not be considered acceptable in the War On Terror and yet as far apart as the results of the two are from each other, they are about to become one in the same.

Iraq is 6,005 miles away from the shores of the Unites States off of New York. That is a long distance yet we know that distance, although it may not make things easier, it still does not prevent terrorist attacks from taking place here. Mexico isn’t even inches away though. So terrorism through Mexico is even easier. They are connected to us, and not just physically. They are connected to us by direct and immediate contact through trade health, agriculture and citizens, legal and illegal. But perhaps the greatest connection between the United States and Mexico is drugs.

It is a deadly connection. One that dulls the minds of millions, endangers the lives of hundreds of thousands and kills tens of thousands each year.

A soldier stands guard in front of the Camino Real Hotel in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico.

A soldier stands guard in front of the Camino Real Hotel in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico.

Drugs are probably the most prolific and profitable commodity exchanged across the U.S.-Mexican border, yet, despite the negative effects, it’s illegality and the “war” on them, drugs flow form South to North with the ease of the Shenandoah River in the Virginias.

The incredibly violent rate of drug deaths in Mexico during 2008 is a loud warning bell. It rings with more dire warning than the bellowing horns of the Titanic as it went down after the iceberg tore a lethal hole into it’s hull.

The incredible number of deaths occurred as a result of the increased boldness of drug cartels and gangs. They have taken a stand and made it clear that they are defiant and will not allow any government to infringe on their livelihoods.

In 2008, an increasing amount of drug lords have made incursions in the United States. One of the most recent well publicized events brought about an Amber Alert after the grandson of a man with shady loan debts to drug dealers kidnapped his grandson. The boy turned up in Las Vegas, but the drug dealer’s message was clear.

However, I must ask, what will it take for the drug issue to be truly taken seriously in the United States? Would  it have made a difference if that little California boy was found with his throat slashed? How many more incidents will it take before we realize that terrorism is about to get a partner. A partner that, like Palestinians in Gaza firing missiles into Israel, will be lobbing more violence into America.

America must wake up.

While there are those so far on the left and so far to the right that they meet together in the ideological circle and both try to legalize illegal drug use, an explosion of death and violence that we have not seen before is about to unleash itself.

I am well aware that drug violence is nothing new, but the extent to which it is escalating is new and yet we sit idly by as though things are not different. We almost accept it as commonplace.

Do you know how ingrained the dug culture has become in our southern neighbor?

Ever hear narcocorrido?

antnarcoscorridosNarcocorrido is a form of music based on a type of Mexican folk music called corrido. It sounds like a Latin polka and goes way back in time. It was used to celebrate revolutionary figures and heroes like Emiliano Zapata and Pancho Villa. The new version is called narcocorrido and it sings the praises of drug traffickers and drug related bandits. One older narcocorrido sings about Camelia the Texan, and her boyfriend who go to Los Angeles with a load of marijuana in their car’s tires. They sell it and Camelia’s boyfriend dumps her, saying, “Here’s your half, now I’m going up to San Francisco to my true love.” The song goes on to sing about how Camelia pulls out a gun and pumps him full of lead.

It concludes with the line……… “All the police found was the fired pistol; of the money and Camelia, nothing more was ever known.”

Sweet tune, isn’t it?

Not that the little ditty is astonishing. Here in America, with the likes of P. Diddy, 50 Cent, Snoop Dog, and others, the lyrics of that narcocorrido could be considered tame by American standards. Then again, standards are the problem. Just as narcocorrido is easing into mainstream Mexico, acceptance of drugs and drug violence has been easing into American culture.

That is not to say that we think violence or drug violence is good, but our tolerance of it has increased as our Photobucketintolerance of drugs has leveled off.

For example, I can recall a recall a comments board for a local newspaper in New Jersey called the Asbury Park Press. In it was a story about underage teens arrested for drinking and serving alcohol at a party that they held in their home while their parents were away. More than 60 percent of the comments were of the “let them be” impression. Some said “kids will be kids” and others said “the police should be doing more important things than enforcing underage drinking laws”.

I am not suggesting to bring back prohibition of alcohol but I am merely pointing out the permissiveness that is increasing in society. People are actually suggesting that kids should be let off the hook for breaking laws.

My point is,  just as it took 9/11 to finally deal with terrorism effectively, what will it take for us to deal with drugs and the drug trade effectively?

I for one feel that some of the intentions of the “War On Drugs” must be dealt with by using the same sense of conviction that 9/11 created, especially when it comes to the drug wars goal of employing the cooperation of other nations to eliminate the illegal drug trade.

But more than that, I believe it would be encouraging if we at least secured our border with Mexico. In fact I believe that is, first and foremost our nations top priority.

YES!, our most important priority. More so than even the economy.Secure Border Avavatar

Without a secure border there will be no economy to handle.

At a later date, I will detail a proposal of my own that I have previously released. It is called Open Arms-Secure Borders. It is a comprehensive immigration reform proposal that welcomes legal immigration but defends the sovereignty of our nation and respects and secures our borders.

For now though, Americans must at least acknowledge the fact that the iceberg is in sight and that the U.S.S. Freedom & Prosperity better start steering in another direction or like the Titanic, we will tear apart our hull of security.

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antlettucePOLITICAL IRONYanttitaniccomic

 During what can, at the very least, only be considered tough economic times, Congress is looked at for acting responsibly and demonstrating some fiscal responsibility.

Yet despite these facts, Congress goes ahead and accepts an automatic pay raise. 

Doing so is reminiscent of the captain of the Titanic demanding that iceberg lettuce be served with dinner the night the great vessel went down.

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Be Sure To Sign The Petition To

REPEAL THE CONGRESSIONAL PAY HIKE

Sign the Online Petition – Repeal The Automatic Pay Raise That Congress Is Receiving

Pass The Link On To Family, Friends and Co-workers

http://www.gopetition.com/online/24301.html

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WITH LOTS OF HOMEWORK, REPUBLICANS LOOK TO REBUILD IN 2009

With the new year here, 2008 is a memory that many hope to learn from. For Republicans there were plenty of lessons taught. The loss of the White House as well as increased losses in the United States Senate and House of Representatives provided some extra tutoring and all those lessons leave us with a great deal of homework to complete during 2009.

In 2009 most honest political observers and participants will tell you that for Republicans, 2009 is a year for rebuilding. But how do we do that? How do we not only compete in future elections, but how do we win in future elections?

Part of the solution to our problem is not entirely up to us. Some of the Republican parties fortunes depend on Democrats. Part of the solution….not most of it.

If with total control of the federal government, Democrats begin lurching to the left, they will be opening up a window of opportunity for the G.O.P.. They will make themselves vulnerable to an attack that could easily make most Americans feel that Democrats are extreme and out of touch with the people and their needs.

I already know that Democrats are out of touch. I already know that most Democrats are no longer Democrats….they are liberals. And now, with a so-called Democrat in the White House, the blatantly liberal leadership of sad, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and extreme liberal loon Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, I believe their extremism will present itself so glaringly that most Americans will soon begin to remember just how liberal and incapable of leadership that today’s liberal party really is.

I am convinced that today’s Democrats will be unable to live up to the hopes of most and they will certainly not bring the kind of “change” that most people really want. Their failures to do so will give Republicans the type of opportunity that we could use.

However we won’t be much of a party if we simply count on the failure of Democrats in order to achieve a Republican victory. In my view, although there are many things we need to do, one of the most basic and important projects we must undertake is reconciliation. A reconciliation between the grassroots of the Republican party and the leadership of the party.

This reconciliation would go a long way in re-establishing Republican political preeminence.

The grassroots of the party has been quite disaffected by both Republican party leaders and Republican elected officials.

Over the past 5 years, many Republican elected officials avoided taking the lead in fights where ideological leadership was needed. Many of these elected Republicans also lost the antiestablishment sentiments that helped lead to the Republican revolution of ‘94. It was the sentiment that had congress sacrifice privilege and perks. The type of sentiments that allowed people to believe that congress was there for them, not for taking advantage of the people they represent.  Some Republican party leaders as well as some Republican elected members of congress may have lost their fervor for these sentiments but their supporters have not.   that is one reason why many of those Republicans did not return to congress. 

As for Republican party leaders, many of them, particularly those leading the national committee, lost organizational and communication superiority with their grassroots. Not only were many voters in the Republican base becoming increasingly disappointed by those in congress and less interested in what they had to say, but party leaders lagged behind Democrats in the area of technology. Republican leaders missed the opportunities that internet technology provided. As a result, grass root Republicans were further removed from the process and the G.O.P. lost the chance to energize itself with instantaneous feedback from the grassroots. Feedback that could have provided the party with the concerns and priorities of the Republican grassroots in real time. It also would have made more Republican voters feel more directly involved in the process.

There are many other major and minor issues and tactics that must be addressed but doing so will be a process that we need to undergo over time. 2009 will give us that time. As an off year, there will be no major elections except in New Jersey and Virginia where voters will be electing Governors along with members of their state legislatures. Illinois may have a special election to fill the vacancy that Barack Obama’s election to President has created but that whole issue has yet to play out. So while time is of the essence in New Jersey and Virginia there is still some room for breathing in most other states, but not much. Which is why I am glad that 2009 has kicked off with several efforts that can help to boost Republican fortunes.

These efforts have begun in of all places, the internet and by of all people, Republican grass root supporters.

One of the most promising sites and to date, most effective sites involves young, Republican internet guru Patrick Rufini.

CLICK HERE

CLICK HERE

Appropriately called ““REBUILD the PARTY”” the site helps provide the proper direction and leadership for the party not only with good advice but by example as well.

In the weeks following the election of 2008, “REBUILD the PARTY” conducted an open forum where Republicans submitted ideas and votes were cast on which suggested ideas were best. A long the way a ten point plan of Republican action was developed. It is a ten point strategy that, so far, has been endorsed by 5 of the six people running for RNC chairman.

In addition to official strategy development “REBUILD the PARTY” offers itself as a central headquarters for Republican to communicate and debate on. Through the social network “NING”, participants can even create their own homepage and blog. In it‘s totality, “REBUILD the PARTY” is a perfect example of how a rebuilt Republican party should proceed in 2009.

Another promising new site is “Flip4”.

CLICK HERE

CLICK HERE

“Flip4” is striving to “flip four seats in every statehouse where doing so will give Republicans the majority”. The sites creators understand that the state legislatures are where Republican fortunes lie. They know that after 2010, the state legislatures will be drawing the congressional district lines that will make up the house in Washington, D.C..

So Flip4 focuses on state legislatures by trying to find and elect “talented, principled, forward-thinking Republican candidates” and by implementing the following strategy:

  1. Identify four talented, principled, forward-thinking Republican candidates in every statehouse where their victories will give Republicans the majority.
  2. Collect and distribute information about these candidates, their issues and their races.
  3. Direct resources to these candidates, both financial and otherwise, to enable their victory.
CLICK HERE

CLICK HERE

Another new forum is another platform developed by Patrick Rufini. This one is called “THE NEXT RIGHT”.

The “The Next Right” highlights the current thinking of several of the sites politically experienced Republican operators. Here they detail and debate the weaknesses and strengths of the party and also present rich, thought provoking proposals for the party to undertake.

It also involves input from grass root Republicans, who can post their own blog entries and allow for debate through ongoing comment sections.

If one takes a moment to review these three sites, they will find themselves increasingly optimistic. They will see that hope is not lost and that Republican losses at the polls did not occur because the Republican principles we stand for are outdated or wrong but that they were not applied by many Republicans serving in office. A look at these sites demonstrates that the Republican base is strong and that they ready, willing and able to do what is necessary to help provide America with the leadership that true republicans can offer the nation.

So as 2009 unfolds, be a part of the rebuilding process. Get involved in the sites mentioned here.

They are helping to turn things around and upside down. To date, their activity is responsible for getting the attention of our leaders and instead of the people joining the proposed efforts of our party leaders, party leaders are getting involved in the efforts of the people. It is a redrawing of the political blueprint where the actions that the G.O.P. takes comes from the direction that the people want to go in as opposed to the people going in the direction that a party boss wants the people to go in. It is the type of blueprint that Republicans could have used a few years before we lost control of congress when they lost touch with the grassroots that elected them in the first place.

In 2009, for Republicans, these sites are trains  leaving the station and if you are not onboard, you’ll be left behind.

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Your Urgent Help Needed

Dear American;

I need to ask you to support an urgent secret business relationship with a transfer of funds of great magnitude.

I am Ministry of the Treasury of the Republic of America. My country has had crisis that has caused the need for large transfer of funds of 800 billion dollars US. If you would assist me in this transfer, it would be most profitable to you.

I am working with Mr. Phil Gram, lobbyist for UBS, who will be my replacement as Ministry of the Treasury in January. As a Senator, you may know him as the leader of the American banking deregulation movement in the 1990s. This transactin is 100% safe.

This is a matter of great urgency. We need a blank check. We need the funds as quickly as possible. We cannot directly transfer these funds in the names of our close friends because we are constantly under surveillance. My family lawyer advised me that I should look for a reliable and trustworthy person who will act as a next of kin so the funds can be transferred.

Please reply with all of your bank account, IRA and college fund account numbers and those of your children and grandchildren to wallstreetbailout@treasury.gov so that we may transfer your commission for this transaction. After I receive that information, I will respond with detailed information about safeguards that will be used to protect the funds.

Yours Faithfully Minister of Treasury Paulson

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THE REAL REPUBLICAN DEBATE

After licking our wounds from this past election, the blogosphere is packed with suggestions and commentary regarding how to rebuild the Republican party. Many Republican activists and enthusiasts are debating who will be the face of our party as we go forward. At times I too have been eager to want to put forward a name that best represents us, but doing so does not help us establish the solid foundation that we need to build upon.
Louisiana Governor bobby Jindal

Louisiana Governor bobby Jindal

Aside from the race for leadership of the party, activists are caught up in a struggle over who is next, who is going to be our candidate for President and who we must rely upon to deliver our message and carry us forward? There are those who are demanding that we pin our hopes on Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, while others debate the future of Sarah Palin or other party figures like Romney and Huckabee.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin

I have an appreciation for all of the above mentioned named people but I have an even greater appreciation for what my party stands for regardless of the name of who we discuss and there in lies what the real debate should be about.

Former Governor Mitt Romney

Former Governor Mitt Romney

We, as a party, need to be less concerned with the face of the party and more concerned with the heart of the party. We need to reestablish that which was the source of our political preeminence beginning with the ‘94 Republican revolution and the ending of its dominance which culminated in the 2006 elections when we lost control of the senate and house.

Former Governor Mike Huckabee

Former Governor Mike Huckabee

The 1994 Republican revolution ushered in 73 new Republican House members and 11 new Republican Senators. The largess of that freshmen class of Republicans influenced the leadership of congress with the “power to the people” sentiments that they brought to government. It was a sentiment that believed, as elected officials, they needed to make sacrifices for the people and live by the same rules that they created for the people.

This meant getting rid of special privileges and reversing the practices that allowed members of congress to abuse power. It also meant a strong adherence to conservative fiscal, foreign and law and order policies. Many in this class quickly became a part of a new informal group dubbed “New Federalists” and set an agenda of widespread U.S. government cuts in many departments and also intended on privatizing, localizing, consolidating and even , eliminating many departments and agencies. This federalist direction was part of their success.

At least up until 2002.

In my estimation our fall from power as a party came about not due to what we stand for but due to a lack of attention to coordinated efforts in clearly defining what we stand for and a backing away from those intentions.

After winning the White House in 2000, with total control of all three branches of federal government, many of our elected officials became complacent. With that White House win also came the loss of the “power to the people” spirit that ushered in our majorities in 1994.

Former Florida Rep. Joe Scarborough

Former Florida Rep. Joe Scarborough

After winning the presidency, many of those who were a part of that ’94 federalist style, freshmen class slowly left office. Many of them believed in term limits and felt, that in truth to their beliefs, they must step aside and move on. So by 2002, gone were many of the freshmen of the ‘94 GOP revolution. Gone were the strong federalist tendencies of John Kasich , J.C. Watts, Joe Scarborough and their like. And with them, the “power to the power” legislation and message slowly departed as well.

Former Oklahoma Congressman J.C. Watts

Former Oklahoma Congressman J.C. Watts

Slowly, congressional Republicans became complacent with their power. Slowly they lost touch with the people and lost their message. In 2004, the effects of this loss of spirit were not dramatically pronounced. Republicans maintained what power they had, including the White House, but the erosion was beginning. By 2006 it had set in. Our federalist influences were gone and so was our power.

And that is what we must get back in order to regain power. The “power to the people” message and federalist intentions which defined the ‘94 freshman Republican class was what helped to bring us to power.

In 1994 we did not win simply because we were not Democrats. We won because of the anti-establishmentarian mentality that we represented. We were also able to point fingers of blame at Democrats who controlled the establishment. We were able to point to the pay raises and special privileges that Democrats afforded the governing class while offering only a lack of attention to the needs of the people that democrat policies seemingly overlooked.

But by 2006 it became clear to the people that we were the establishment and that we were not responsive to their needs. By 2008 an exclamation mark was added to that sentiment.

So here we are today, wondering how to gain back our majority status.

Many are trying to achieve that goal by appointing one name or another as the name that will propel us back into power. Yet, the truth is that no one name will restore faith in our party.

We can fondly mention the Reagan name and we can offer up Mitt Romney as a the new bearer of the Reagan torch or Sarah Palin as the Republican savior and Bobby Jindal as the leader of the next revolution but no matter what name may be put forth, it is the what our party stands for that is more important than who represents it.

So I propose that we stop linking our fortunes to any one figure and start clearly defining our party. Not redefining it, but clarifying it’s definition.

Doing that requires those Republicans who still remain in office to get back on message and adopt a stronger adherence to federalist tendencies in their legislative initiatives and voting records.

Beyond generalities, that means controlling spending and maintaining an aggressive posture with those foreign elements whom threaten our security and would weaken the threads of freedoms delicate fabric. It means reducing the size of a costly and inefficient government and the bureaucracy that makes government inefficient.

Under the auspices of Homeland Security, Republicans, during the Bush administration, have tried to excuse away budget deficits. Although Homeland Security did account for one of the largest reorganizations of federal government in our history, it did not create an excuse for avoiding budget cuts in other areas or streamlining departments and cutting waste.

In light of this, we must create a legislative agenda that reflects our political ideology. For too long the G.O.P. has been overshadowed by the War on Terror. That effort must not be diminished nor should any focus be taken away from it. However; our efforts must simultaneously embark upon the same domestic agenda that brought us to power in the mid ‘90’s and that we lost track of during the security agenda of this current decade.

Former Ohio Rep. and Future Ohio Governor John Kasich

Former Ohio Rep. and Future Ohio Governor John Kasich

So put aside the name of your favorite potential Republican nominee four years from now. Focus on the clarity of our message and how best to shape that message. Let the great work of Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin, as a governors, speak for themselves and see what it shall bring. Let people like former congressman John Kasich reemerge on the frontlines of the political battlefield as he throws his hat in the ring for Governor of Ohio. Let the candidacies of the best and brightest develop as we help to recapture the spirit and agenda which brought us to power but strayed away from.

Through that agenda, the best of our leaders will emerge and victory will again be ours.

 

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“The IRS announced that obese Americans are entitled to certain tax breaks.

Apparently, under the new rules, you’re allowed to claim two or more chins as dependents.”

~Conan O’Brien

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THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE AND THE SARATIZATION OF STALE POLITICS

In 1968 the campaign of Hubert Humphrey was the first presidential election to use a television ad attacking the oppositions vice presidential nominee. It was used to make fun of Richard of Nixon’s selection of then Maryland Governor Spiro Agnew.

That election was won by Richard Nixon with 301 electoral votes to 191 electoral votes. Third party candidate, Governor George Wallace won 5 southern states and 46 electoral votes.

The ad on Agnew had little effect.

Today we face a much different electoral map, yet one thing that is not different is the use of Sarah Palin by the opposition in this election. Many private groups have taken it upon themselves to run ads, on behalf of Barack Obama, that focus on Palin.

Governor Palin will Saratize the stale political atmosphere

Governor Palin will Saratize the stale political atmosphere

The great attention on Palin came within days of the boost that her addition to the ticket brought to John McCain’s candidacy. A sort of fear overcame the liberal extremists within the Obama camp and outside of it. They were caught off guard by the selection. They were offended by the presentation of a strong, accomplished woman that was not Hillary Clinton or who married into power.

When she was first announced as McCain’s running mate, the Obamakins stated that her only experience is as a small town mayor. They skipped right over the fact that she is a sitting governor. They immediately wrote off her experience because “some” of it, was rooted in a small town and from their perspective small town America doesn’t matter.

Since than, the left has attacked her family, her education and her religion. They have lied about her decisions and actions and claimed that she banned books that were not even published at the time and that she supported secession from the Union when she simply spoke against secession before groups that did advance that cause.

In other words, the left went nuts. They did not know how to deal with her candidacy and they still don’t.

As the vice presidential debate approaches I am sure that they are still at wits end when it comes to coping with her presence on the stage. They have more lies ready to hit to the stands. They have more distortions that they are ready to perpetuate on the internet and over the airwaves. They have plenty of mud to throw but they have little constructive commentary to replace their mud with.

During the course of the debate, I am confident of one thing, Sarah Palin will be a breath of fresh air in an otherwise stale political environment. I am sure she will provide rational sectors of the electorate, with confidence in her abilities and beyond that she will instill a sense of confidence in her ability to bring about their desire for reform of business as usual, Washington, DC, politics.

You see, Sarah Palin does lack experience. She lacks the experience of Washington, DC and it’s go along to get along mentality. She lacks the experience of putting aside one priority for someone’s political favor. Palin lacks the experience of inaction and double talk. On the other hand she has the experience of standing up to the status quo, eliminating deadweight and defeating obstacles to progress. She has the experience of being able to make government work for the people, not against them.

The left can make all the false charges that they want but the truth of Governor Palin’s record cannot be changed. She has spent her time in public service tackling corruption and standing up to the powers that be, even when they were in her own party. She has developed economic policies that enrichened the pockets of Alaskans, not legislated money out of their pockets.

To the contrary, her debate opponent, Joe Biden, has never once opposed a tax increase, reduced the size of

Biden will use DC doubletalk to poluute the political atmosphere

Biden will use DC doubletalk to poluute the political atmosphere

government or stood up to his party and he is a longtime member of the liberal establishment. He is the type of Washington insider that gets hung up on politics and losses sight of positive progress. Biden is the politician who made the decision to hold a “trial” to determine whether, a decade earlier, Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas had committed the outrages of remarking to Anita Hill that dirt on a can of soda looked like pubic hair. Biden is the man who recently touted that the answer to Iraq’s problem was splitting the sovereign nation up into thirds based upon religious sects.

Just as was the case in the 1968 election, this election will not hinge on the vice presidential candidates or their debate and the left’s attacks on Palin will make even less difference. Most people vote for the President, not the Vice President but what people, especially undecided and independent voters, will walk away with is a sense of which ticket is more suited to change the way Washington works. Change in the sense of reform that will take effect from the top down.

I believe that Sarah Palin will Saratize the stale atmosphere of DC politics and that her common sense talk will prevail over Biden’s DC doubletalk.

And for those of you who want to claim that when it comes to the vice presidency, Sarah Palin does not have enough experience but when it comes to the Presidency, Barack Obama does……..I suggest you take a look at this:

 

 

 

Top 10 Signs Your Presidential Candidate is Under-Qualified

1.- Promises to improve foreign relations with Hawaii.

2.- Runs a series of attack ads against Martin Sheen’s character on “The West Wing”.

3.- His #1 choice to work on his cabinet is “That Bob Vila guy”.

4. – Outstanding record as Governor of Rhode Island nullified by the fact that no one cares.

5. – Got his degree in Political Economics by bribing Sally Struthers with a chocolate donut.

6. – Anybody mentions Washington, he asks, “The state or the DC thingie?”

7. – At the debates, answers every question with a snarled, “You wanna wrestle?”

8. – Vows to put an end to the war in Pokemon and free the Pikachu refugees once and for all 

9. – Says the Pledge of Allegiance as quickly as possible, then shouts, “I win!”

                10. -On the very first question of the debate, he attempts to use a lifeline.

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OBAMA and McCAIN NEED TO RESCUE ANY RESCUE PACKAGE

One will be President.  Both need to show us why they should be.

One will be President. Both need to show us why they should be.

Presidents must provide leadership that leads us away from crisis if they see it coming. If they didn’t see it coming, they must get us through it.

The current financial crisis that our nation is being warned of could have been avoided if we acted on some of the preventive measures that would have averted the recent need for a 700 billion dollar rescue package. Not avoiding it is something that I blame President Bush for. Note, I do not blame him for the problem but I do blame him and the administration for not seeing it coming. I blame him for not heading the advice of others who warned us about the mortgage lending practices which have inevitably threatened every other, major, area of the economy. People like John McCain who in 2005 proposed measures to correct our course and avoid the ice field.

Someone was asleep at the wheel on this one. It was akin to being on duty in the watchtower and still not seeing the iceberg that sunk the Titanic.

I will blame the President for allowing the issue to get to this point and requiring an historic, expensive hurried, solution to what should have been avoided, but I will not blame him for creating the problem that he did not acknowledge until it was too late.

Clinton's National Homeowners Strategt led to out national economic unraveling

Nat'l Homeoners Strategy led to crisis

This was a problem created, in part, by the Clinton era.

Under the Clinton administration mandates were created that forced FannieMae and FreddieMac to extend high risks loans to low income and minority applicants. Clinton‘s National Homeowners Strategy was a financial scheme that promoted insanely low down payments and coerced lenders into giving mortgage loans to first-time buyers with unstable financing and incomes. It was a way to increase homeownership. That is an admirable motive but as usual,the  liberal mentality, forced government to do that which it should not have done. Essentially, the Clinton era initiatives that forced government action on private sector interests led to the need for government to take over FannieMae and FreddieMac. This is not to say that private sector greed and bad business practices did not add to the wrong minded government policy, it did, but what happened here is that government solutions to one problem, created another . Now, ironically, the government which helped to create this problem is having to solve it.

There are many lessons that can be learned from this. Whether you refuse to learn those lessons is up to you but the lessons are there. The left , under Nancy Pelosi, want to point fingers at Republicans and blame the entire problem on their tendencies for deregulation. That could almost be plausible if it was true. Unfortunately for liberals, it is not true. Conservatives are not for no regulation. Conservatives are for less regulations. They are against government regulations such as the Clinton era housing initiatives which forced FannieMae and FreddieMac to enter into high risk loans that should never have had the opportunity to be defaulted on. Republicans are against the type of regulations that prevent reasonable growth of our economy that is based upon sound policy and business practices.

Such was the case in 2005 when John McCain sponsored the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act which was specifically aimed at reeling in the higher than acceptable risk taking of FannieMae and FreddieMac. It was also designed to reign in many of the shady recording practices that both institutions were conducting.

The Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005 was, as it’s name indicates, a bill of regulatory reform, a bill that would have reformed the regulations which have added to the creation of the current economic crisis. The bill was ignored and denied by Democrats and the Democrat chairmen of the committees responsible for the bill. Congressman Barney frank and senator Chris Dodd did not act on this corrective initiative. Yet today, they join with Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in blaming Republicans.

Pelosi’s lack of ability to lead has been clear for many years. During the last two years, as Speaker of the House,her lack of leadership has been profound. It lacked the ability to get her own party in line and pass their own liberal initiatives. That is why this is one of history’s least productive congressional legislative
The most unaccomplished Speaker in history

The most unaccomplished Speaker in history

sessions.

Between President Bush sleeping at the economic wheel and the house Democrat leaders’s lack of ability to accomplish anything, we need a leader to step forward. For me that leadership should come from the next President. It should come from the individual who will be steering our economic ship with whatever the burden of the solution to this crisis is.

Barack Obama and John McCain are incumbent senators. They have a responsibility to live up to in those capacities and they should not use a political campaign as an excuse for avoiding that responsibility.

John McCain was right when last week he suspended normal campaign activity in a stated attempt to deal with the legislative package aimed at rescuing the economy. He was wrong to back away from this original position. In doing so we are back to square one and Nancy Pelosi’s lack of leadership along with that of President Bush and Committee Chairs Dodd and Barney still leaves us crying out for effective leadership.

John McCain is no Nostradamus, but on this issue he has been ahead of the curve and his instincts have been right, at least since 2005 when he proposed measures that would have not allowed things to spiral out of control and bring us to this point. McCain should continue with those instincts and apply them in his capacity as a sitting senator.

Why did he reject the solutions before it bacame a problem?

Why did he reject the solutions before it baecame a problem?

I understand that neither McCain or Obama sit on the House Financial Services Committee or the Senate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee, which are the primary committees handling the bailout package. However, their involvement on the issue,along, with their colleagues can interject some much needed initiatives and direction into those committees. To believe that since they are not on the committee, they have nothing to do with it or no ability to influence it is absurd.

If either of these two men have the capacity to lead us that their individual campaigns would have us believe than now is their chance to show it.

Too late now to save the process he helped to sink

Too late now to save the process he helped to sink

Now is the time for them to demonstrate their purported abilities to solve problems and unite people together to properly address our national concerns. If either of these men have the answers to our problems, than now is the time to provide those answers. If the economic dangers we are witnessing are truly a crisis, now is the time to answer their calls to duty.

Get off their high horses and get behind their legislative desks of responsibility. Do not politicize the crisis in stump speeches before adoring supporters in Ohio, Pennsylvania or Colorado.  Go to Washington, D.C. and rally the legislative geniuses of Capital Hill together behind appropriate, legitimate legislation that will address the crisis.

I want McCain and Obama to present their rescue packages. A package of legislative measures that:

A. – Produces an acceptable level of fluidity in the credit markets
B. – Prevent the abusive practice of an overextension of risky loans.
C. – Tightens the recording practices of all federal monetary institutions.
D. – Eliminates the Clinton era National Homeownership Strategy policies
E. – Levees a payback with interest on any and all monies invested in bailout packages
F. – Eliminate golden parachutes for executive officers responsible for insolvency

Obama and McCain may not sit on the committees charged with hammering out such a package but they are

Talk is cheap. Action is essential.

Talk is cheap. Action is essential.

charged with the responsibility to create a package that the proper committees must address. Through their leadership they can create a plan that is good enough to garner support and strong enough to rally behind. If they cannot do this than they have no right to comment on the process and use it to advance their candidacies for President.

I want them to demonstrate through deed, not word, how good their abilities are to resolve problems and deal with crisis.

If either McCain or Obama want to demonstrate that they have the ability to accomplish things as President, now is the chance to show it, not just talk about it. The cry for leadership in this crisis is loud and clear and if Obama and/or McCain refuse to answer those cries, than neither one should be asking for the chance to lead our nation for the next four years to come.

Last Wednesday, when McCain embraced the issue and suspended his campaign, he was on track. It was the right thing to do. Since than he has strayed off this track and now we still do not have a rescue package in place. Now, more than ever he needs to get back on track, suspend his campaign and take the lead on the issue. Develop a plan that can win the day and help propel him to the White House.

A campaign is a great forum for ideas to be expressed but a time of crisis is a great forum for leadership to be practiced. McCain and Obama need to practice it now.

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A Guide to U.S. Newspapers 

 

1. The Wall Street Journal is read by the people who run the country.
2. The New York Times is read by people who think they run the country.
3. The Washington Post is read by people who think they should run the country.

4. USA Today is read by people who think they ought to run the country but don’t really understand the Washington Post. They do, however like the smog statistics shown in pie charts.

5. The Los Angeles Times is read by people who wouldn’t mind running the country, if they could spare the time, and if they didn’t have to leave L.A. to do it.

6. The Boston Globe is read by people whose parents used to run the country.

7. The New York Daily News is read by people who aren’t too sure who’s running the country, and don’t really care as long as they can get a seat on the train.

8. The New York Post is read by people who don’t care who’s running the country either, as long as they do something really scandalous, preferably while intoxicated.

9. The San Francisco Chronicle is read by people who aren’t sure there is a country, or that anyone is running it; but whoever it is, they oppose all that they stand for. There are occasional exceptions if the leaders are handicapped minority, feministic atheist dwarfs, who also happen to be illegal aliens from ANY country or galaxy as long as they are democrats.

10. The Miami Herald is read by people who are running another country, but need the baseball scores.

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McCAIN/PALIN vs. OBAMA/BIDEN AND THE POSSIBLE ELECTION NIGHTMARE

Given the closeness of this election anything can change the course of events . With weeks left to go, the slightest happening can swing this election in either direction. It could be any one of the debates, or a candidate’s poorly chosen, off the cuff remark. It might be a deepening of economic concerns or an international event that rearranges the importance of topics. Barring any unexpected, dramatic, landscape altering events, I see this election being won by John McCain.

I have come to this conclusion based upon polling data and state trends, along with party affiliations, population shifts, the persuading factors among the electorate,an incremental leaning in direction of independent voters, my personal, political intuition and the cords that each campaign is striking in their messages. After factoring all this in, I believe that John McCain will win with a total of 274 electoral votes to Barack Obama’s 264 electoral votes. This 30 state victory is still too close for comfort and it relies heavily on winning the battleground states of Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. Of these 5 states I believe Missouri, Nevada and Colorado will be the most pivotal. None the less, if they go as I think they will, Senator McCain will be our next President.

However; in this scenario I think victory will come with great public protestation.

You see in this projection, I do believe that there exists a strong chance for McCain to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote.

The unprecedented enthusiasm of Barack Obama’s supporters is undeniable. To those, more liberal oriented voters, the newness of Obama is appealing and his presence on the political stage is fresh. Among these groups there is also deep resentment to all things and people that are Republican. Together these are powerful motivational forces behind their mobiliztion to vote. This all makes for an unusually energized base among Democrat voters. Add to this the fact that Barack Obama is the first African-American nominee of either political party and you have the opportunity for a higher than normal turnout of conventional Democrat voters. African-Americans traditionally vote the Democrat ticket and in the case of Barack Obama you can expect that most will do so in this election. In fact many black voters who previously felt disaffected and have not voted in past elections, will probably not let their ballot go to waste in this election.

This all indicates that Democrat strongholds like New York and other highly urbanized and traditionally liberal states will not only go blue for Obama but they will pump out unusually high and disproportionate pluralities for the Democrats. In doing so this may result in Barack Obama actually getting more popular votes than John McCain. The only problem is that these high pockets of concentrated Obama votes will not change the electoral college map. For example, if New York state produces a popular vote of 6 million for Obama and only 3 and half million for McCain, Obama will get New York’s 31 electoral votes, as expected, but it wont change the result in a state like Texas which has 34 electoral votes and is solidly behind McCain. In Texas however, the vote may not be as lopsided in McCain’s favor as it is for Barack Obama in New York. More accurately the Texas results may be more like five million for McCain to four and a half million for Obama.

I expect uneven results with larger popular votes for Obama in most all the states that he wins. McCain will win states with far smaller margins than Obama The only exception will be Utah, the most heavily Republican state in the union. In Utah, McCain will be the beneficiary of a very large differential between the two candidates. But, when all the ballots are counted, Obama will have accumulated more votes nationwide.

Even so, he will not have more electoral votes.

It is the scenario that I believe is most likely. In it, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada are most pivotal.

I am confident that McCain will win the battleground states of Virginia, Ohio and Florida. Other close races exist in Michigan and Pennsylvania but the unusually high turnout of liberal, urban, votes there will ultimately allow Obama to prevail in them.

New Hampshire is a question mark. Currently it is a relatively tight contest between McCain and Obama in the “Granite State”. With it’s state motto of “Live Free or Die” New Hampshire is usually the only reliably red state in a northeastern sea of blue, but an influx of population from neighboring urban centers like Boston, combined with their recent leftward shift and a race for United States Senate that poises to elect popular, former New Hampshire, Democrat, Governor Jeanne Shaheen, will all account for McCain losing this once red state.

With the outcome of most other states not in doubt, Missouri, Nevada, and Colorado are the only remaining states for McCain to realistically be able to reach and exceed the 270 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency. I may be going out on limb here but I believe that McCain will win them over. Colorado and Missouri may be especially close but the environment should allow the McCain/Palin ticket to pull it off. Nevada will be tight but the movement is in McCain’s direction.  

Iowa, a neighbor of Obama’s home state of Illinios, is also going to be competetive.  It went for the G.O.P. from ’68 to ’84.  From ’88 to 2000 the Democratic nominee won Nevadans over.  In 2004 they went back to the Republicans and voted for Bush.  In this cycle, I see Obama’s regional advantage, ultimately  winning the day.

This hypothesis is becoming increasingly likely and although, as a Republican, I will be pleased with having elected John McCain President and Sarah Palin Vice President, I and many other Americans will not be pleased by the reaction to the nation’s first potential African-American President losing the presidency after winning the popular vote.

Similiar events happened before. In distant as well as recent history, the loser of the popular vote has still won the presidency with the electoral college but it is rare and it has never happened under circumstances like this.

I will not venture into how the electorate will react if this happens now. I will let you ponder over the reaction. But I will offer you another very possible result. One that also has a clear winner of the popular vote but does not allow for a winner to be declared until early January of the New Year.

If Nevada goes to Barack Obama rather than John McCain, as I anticipate in the previous scenario, than we have a tie in the electoral college.

269 for Obama/Biden and 269 for McCain/Palin.

In this event, the newly elected congress will decide the election.

Each of the 50 states cast one vote for President and a majority of 26 states determines the winner. Which candidate they vote for is determined by a majority vote of their newly elected congressional representatives. Currently, Democrats comprise the majority of congressional representatives in 27 states while Republicans control 21 state delegations and two states are tied with their delegations split equally.

If this number does not change in the November election, than it is more than likely that Obama would win the votes of the 27 states possesing congressional delegations dominated by Democrats.

In this election cycle Republicans are not likely to win back enough congressional seats to overtake Democratic majorities in any of the 27 states in question. In fact, due to the current environment, a higher than usual number of retiring Republican incumbents in addition to Obama’s, anticipated high voter turnout, Republicans will probably be losing a few seats.

This still does not assure Obama victory though. There are conservative oriented Democrat representatives who might choose to vote for McCain. These are politcians and this is Washington, D.C. where many wheeler dealers thrive and can always be swayed by the offer of the right appointment to the right position or are willing to throw principles overboard for that “special favor”. This possibility exists especially in several southern states where the difference between the majority of congressional representatives is quite slim.

Still it is unlikely that there would be enough defectors to sway more than one or two democrat dominated states to vote Republican.

The close contest for President of the United States could hinge on the slightest nuance during these last few weeks but the way I see it McCain will win with 274 electoral votes but Obama will lose after winning a majority of the popular vote. It is my hope that most Americans choose McCain and that he wins the majority of both the electoral college and popular vote, but the very real potential for the former looms over us.

Below are maps that depict the best electoral vote totals that both candidates could potentialy receive if circumstances were at the absolute best for one candidate or the other in the current environment. Both are highly unlikely: 
 

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FRANK RALEIGH LAUTENBERG AND NEW JERSEY…PERFECT TOGETHER?

I recently had a conversation with a friend who was quite active in New York politics. He served on many a presidential campaigns and was the campaign voice for several local and statewide officials in New York. He has long since retired and moved away but during this conversation I mentioned Frank Lautenberg’s name and he said “Lautenberg, is he still around?” I chuckled and explained that you wouldn’t know it but he is still there. I really had no obvious evidence to point to his existence but I assured him that Frank was still there and that he was running to stay there.

After that conversation, I got to thinking , why did Frank Lautenberg run again? I mean back in 1982 Lautenberg ran for the United States Senate and he started off as a major force. During his first term he was the impetus behind the raising of the legal drinking age to 21 in all states by linking federal funding for their highways to their raising the legal age. He also revolutionized the airline industry by successfully authoring legislation that eliminated smoking on planes. But since then his, legislative activism and personal leadership has waned, In 2001, after 3 terms in office, he fittingly retired, only to come out of retirement to replace Senator Bob Torricelli on the ballot in his doomed re-election effort. Although state and party laws deny anyone the ability to replace a nomination within days of an election, the New Jersey Supreme court decided that laws do not matter and allowed Torricelli , who was under investigation for criminal conduct, to be taken off the ballot and replaced by someone who had a better chance to win the election. That person was Lautenberg.

Lautenberg didiwon that election, but what did Lautenberg’s return from retirement bring us? Aside from proving that the law did not matter and that he was above it, his six years since then have produced little, very little.

Oh Frank is a reliable liberal vote in Washington. He was counted on to support opposition to the efforts to combat terrorism. He was counted on to vote for any and every tax hike that came out of the collective congressional agenda. But aside from being a reliable vote for the liberal agenda, Frank did little for New Jersey and he did even less when it came to bringing any new energy for new ideas or directions. It seemed that Frank’s only major accomplishments were achieved back in the early 80’s when his once fresh voice led the way to sensible reforms that in some cases saved lives.

Credit must be given when and where credit is due and so, Lautenberg’s two landmark initiatives are to his credit. But after 24 years of legislating in the federal government on behalf of New Jersey, where is the credit that he once deserved to be re-elected for today. Since his 1982 -1988 stint, there is little merit that warrants electing Lautenberg to any of the terms since then.

The only level of increased activity that Lautenberg has demonstrated exists within his staff. It is a staff that has one of the largest numbers and highest payrolls in the senate. His chief of staff earns one of the highest salaries offered on Capitol Hill to any other colleague with the same title and responsibilities. As Lautenberg’s Chief of Staff, Daniel Katz has earned $81,183.59 just between October 2007 and March of 2008. Compared to others this is no measly sum of money. Yet, I do not begrudge Daniel Katz the money. He earns it.

He must work hard to control and motivate the other 52 staffers that account for Lautenberg’s senate activity. Daniel Katz must also work twice hard to make his inactive Senator appear busy and productive. It is a job that cannot be done alone. That is why Lautenberg’s staff includes 12 legislative assistants, aides and directors, who between October of last year and March of this year have been paid a combined total of three and a quarter hundred thousand dollars or to be exact $324,786.75.

Oddly enough along with having state directors and deputy state directors Frank also has a South Jersey Director and two Deputy South Jersey Directors and an assistant to the South Jersey Director. Now we all know that that New Jersey is famous for it’s extraordinarily large size. At 7,418 square miles it ranks as the 46th largest state in the nation. But these South Jersey, patronage, posts reflect less of a legislative need than a political need. Congressman Rob Andrews who challenged Frank for the democrat nomination is from South Jersey and most of the rumblings to replace Lautenberg come out of South Jersey.

These South Jersey directors have earned a combined $58,437.42 during the five months between October ‘07 and March ‘08. Add to this another $99,579.61 which has been paid to state and deputy state directors during the same time period.

The rest of Lautenberg’s staff consists of a rarely used speech writer along with an executive director, press secretaries, schedulers, constituent service directors, specialists, handlers and assistants, legal counselors, legislative directors, assistants and specialists. It also includes a legislative correspondent, director of correspondence, systems administrator, special project coordinators and numerous staff assistants.

In total, Lautenberg’ 53 staffers, and five month, nearly one and a half million dollar payroll ($1,437497.80), must work hard to make a sitting Senator who has little initiative to point to, look active and productive.

Everyday, leading up to his race for the nomination against Andrews, Lautenberg’s staff has produced countless press releases staking a position on an issue. In fact his staff has been responsible for the Herculean task of trying to demonstrate Frank Lautenberg as a constructive part of government in the face of his lack of real initiatives.

Let’s face it. Since Lautenberg’s first term 27 years ago, he has nothing to show for it. His latest claim is that he insured that the federal Homeland Security money provided to New Jersey is doled out on the basis of need. Accept for a press release, Frank did not correct the problem that existed in this area. Republican state legislators brought up a lawsuit against the state after revealing that Homeland security money was being given out only to districts that had Democrat lawmakers representing them. The Corzine administration was allocating money meant to shore up security in our state based on politics, not need. Frank Lautenberg’s press releases did not change this immoral activity, the threatened lawsuit brought about by Republicans did. But I guess if you have little effort or action of your own to point to, your staff must take every opportunity to make their boss look good.

Making Frank look good is a hard job though. In his days since 1982, Frank bitterly clings to his only major accomplishments, raising the drinking age and prohibiting smoking on airplanes.

His subsequent representation of New Jersey since then has not produced much else. In fact due to the democrats representing us in the U.S. Senate, New Jersey continues to be one of the lowest ranked states in terms of our return on the tax dollars that we send to Washington. Together, Lautenberg and Menendez have been unable to get much bang for our buck and through it all they maintain their liberal mantra that helps to continue the crisis of affordability that exists in New Jersey.

Perhaps the greatest shame in all this is not, the lack of initiative or leadership that an 84 year old man has in Washington, DC. but rather that the state of New Jersey does not have the ability to produce a citizen that can provide leadership in D.C.

Republican nominee Dick Zimmer is a worthy candidate. He has a good, proven twelve year record serving in congress as a representative from New Jersey. He has commendable views on policies pertaining to energy and the economy. His views on foreign policy are more attuned to the times and better suited for the times than the liberal, tea with terrorists approach that Lautenberg liberals take. But in New Jersey, none of this matters. The Republican party of this state has yet to get it’s act together and put forth an agenda that offers a clear difference from today’s ruling class liberals.

Even Dick Zimmer, as capable as he is, can not wage a decent campaign against Lautenberg.  The state G.O.P. has been unable to raise sufficient funds for our candidates. Current fund raising records show that Dick Zimmer has raised a few hundred thousand dollars, while the aging, millionaire, founder of one of the nations largest payroll companies, Frank Lautenberg, has a couple of million for his campaign.

It is also a shame that New Jersey operates under such a shroud of hypocrisy. The hypocrisy of a candidate who first took office in 1982 by attacking his opponent, Millicent Fenwick, for her age which at the time was in her low 70’s. The hypocrisy of a man who came out of retirement and was resurrected by breaking laws that switched his name in place of a candidate that was losing. The hypocrisy of a man who is elected to office to do things for New Jersey but has actually accomplished little for New Jersey in over two decades.

It is all a shame but it is a shame that New Jersey deserves. We deserve what we get and in Frank Lautenberg what we get is an aging fat cat, devoid of ideas and drive and propped up by an over million and a half dollar staff that is occupied by patronage posts that are charged with making Lautenberg look productive.

There is one thing New Jersey will accomplish when it keeps Lautenberg on the job for us. It will break a record and make Lautenberg the longest serving United States Senator in New Jersey’s history. That s something but it doesn’t mean much when it comes to the benefits we have gotten out of that long service, or should I say lack of benefit.

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