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McCAIN/PALIN vs. OBAMA/BIDEN AND THE POSSIBLE ELECTION NIGHTMARE

Given the closeness of this election anything can change the course of events . With weeks left to go, the slightest happening can swing this election in either direction. It could be any one of the debates, or a candidate’s poorly chosen, off the cuff remark. It might be a deepening of economic concerns or an international event that rearranges the importance of topics. Barring any unexpected, dramatic, landscape altering events, I see this election being won by John McCain.

I have come to this conclusion based upon polling data and state trends, along with party affiliations, population shifts, the persuading factors among the electorate,an incremental leaning in direction of independent voters, my personal, political intuition and the cords that each campaign is striking in their messages. After factoring all this in, I believe that John McCain will win with a total of 274 electoral votes to Barack Obama’s 264 electoral votes. This 30 state victory is still too close for comfort and it relies heavily on winning the battleground states of Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. Of these 5 states I believe Missouri, Nevada and Colorado will be the most pivotal. None the less, if they go as I think they will, Senator McCain will be our next President.

However; in this scenario I think victory will come with great public protestation.

You see in this projection, I do believe that there exists a strong chance for McCain to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote.

The unprecedented enthusiasm of Barack Obama’s supporters is undeniable. To those, more liberal oriented voters, the newness of Obama is appealing and his presence on the political stage is fresh. Among these groups there is also deep resentment to all things and people that are Republican. Together these are powerful motivational forces behind their mobiliztion to vote. This all makes for an unusually energized base among Democrat voters. Add to this the fact that Barack Obama is the first African-American nominee of either political party and you have the opportunity for a higher than normal turnout of conventional Democrat voters. African-Americans traditionally vote the Democrat ticket and in the case of Barack Obama you can expect that most will do so in this election. In fact many black voters who previously felt disaffected and have not voted in past elections, will probably not let their ballot go to waste in this election.

This all indicates that Democrat strongholds like New York and other highly urbanized and traditionally liberal states will not only go blue for Obama but they will pump out unusually high and disproportionate pluralities for the Democrats. In doing so this may result in Barack Obama actually getting more popular votes than John McCain. The only problem is that these high pockets of concentrated Obama votes will not change the electoral college map. For example, if New York state produces a popular vote of 6 million for Obama and only 3 and half million for McCain, Obama will get New York’s 31 electoral votes, as expected, but it wont change the result in a state like Texas which has 34 electoral votes and is solidly behind McCain. In Texas however, the vote may not be as lopsided in McCain’s favor as it is for Barack Obama in New York. More accurately the Texas results may be more like five million for McCain to four and a half million for Obama.

I expect uneven results with larger popular votes for Obama in most all the states that he wins. McCain will win states with far smaller margins than Obama The only exception will be Utah, the most heavily Republican state in the union. In Utah, McCain will be the beneficiary of a very large differential between the two candidates. But, when all the ballots are counted, Obama will have accumulated more votes nationwide.

Even so, he will not have more electoral votes.

It is the scenario that I believe is most likely. In it, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada are most pivotal.

I am confident that McCain will win the battleground states of Virginia, Ohio and Florida. Other close races exist in Michigan and Pennsylvania but the unusually high turnout of liberal, urban, votes there will ultimately allow Obama to prevail in them.

New Hampshire is a question mark. Currently it is a relatively tight contest between McCain and Obama in the “Granite State”. With it’s state motto of “Live Free or Die” New Hampshire is usually the only reliably red state in a northeastern sea of blue, but an influx of population from neighboring urban centers like Boston, combined with their recent leftward shift and a race for United States Senate that poises to elect popular, former New Hampshire, Democrat, Governor Jeanne Shaheen, will all account for McCain losing this once red state.

With the outcome of most other states not in doubt, Missouri, Nevada, and Colorado are the only remaining states for McCain to realistically be able to reach and exceed the 270 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency. I may be going out on limb here but I believe that McCain will win them over. Colorado and Missouri may be especially close but the environment should allow the McCain/Palin ticket to pull it off. Nevada will be tight but the movement is in McCain’s direction.  

Iowa, a neighbor of Obama’s home state of Illinios, is also going to be competetive.  It went for the G.O.P. from ’68 to ’84.  From ’88 to 2000 the Democratic nominee won Nevadans over.  In 2004 they went back to the Republicans and voted for Bush.  In this cycle, I see Obama’s regional advantage, ultimately  winning the day.

This hypothesis is becoming increasingly likely and although, as a Republican, I will be pleased with having elected John McCain President and Sarah Palin Vice President, I and many other Americans will not be pleased by the reaction to the nation’s first potential African-American President losing the presidency after winning the popular vote.

Similiar events happened before. In distant as well as recent history, the loser of the popular vote has still won the presidency with the electoral college but it is rare and it has never happened under circumstances like this.

I will not venture into how the electorate will react if this happens now. I will let you ponder over the reaction. But I will offer you another very possible result. One that also has a clear winner of the popular vote but does not allow for a winner to be declared until early January of the New Year.

If Nevada goes to Barack Obama rather than John McCain, as I anticipate in the previous scenario, than we have a tie in the electoral college.

269 for Obama/Biden and 269 for McCain/Palin.

In this event, the newly elected congress will decide the election.

Each of the 50 states cast one vote for President and a majority of 26 states determines the winner. Which candidate they vote for is determined by a majority vote of their newly elected congressional representatives. Currently, Democrats comprise the majority of congressional representatives in 27 states while Republicans control 21 state delegations and two states are tied with their delegations split equally.

If this number does not change in the November election, than it is more than likely that Obama would win the votes of the 27 states possesing congressional delegations dominated by Democrats.

In this election cycle Republicans are not likely to win back enough congressional seats to overtake Democratic majorities in any of the 27 states in question. In fact, due to the current environment, a higher than usual number of retiring Republican incumbents in addition to Obama’s, anticipated high voter turnout, Republicans will probably be losing a few seats.

This still does not assure Obama victory though. There are conservative oriented Democrat representatives who might choose to vote for McCain. These are politcians and this is Washington, D.C. where many wheeler dealers thrive and can always be swayed by the offer of the right appointment to the right position or are willing to throw principles overboard for that “special favor”. This possibility exists especially in several southern states where the difference between the majority of congressional representatives is quite slim.

Still it is unlikely that there would be enough defectors to sway more than one or two democrat dominated states to vote Republican.

The close contest for President of the United States could hinge on the slightest nuance during these last few weeks but the way I see it McCain will win with 274 electoral votes but Obama will lose after winning a majority of the popular vote. It is my hope that most Americans choose McCain and that he wins the majority of both the electoral college and popular vote, but the very real potential for the former looms over us.

Below are maps that depict the best electoral vote totals that both candidates could potentialy receive if circumstances were at the absolute best for one candidate or the other in the current environment. Both are highly unlikely: 
 

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VOTERS YOU CAN COUNT ON AND WHY OBAMA WILL LOSE

Golden Agers Are The Largest Group Of Most Reliable Voters In The Electorate

Golden Agers Are The Largest Group Of Most Reliable Voters In The Electorate

While the campaign for President rages on, people are taking sides for many different reasons. Some are choosing their candidate based on their perception that one candidate or the other agrees with them on issues that they are passionate about. Some voters are basing their decision on experience or trust in their candidates intentions. Others are voting simply based upon their party affiliation. There are even some reckless and bigoted individuals voting along ethnic or racial lines and others who are voting based on age.

A majority of people are basing their decision on more overall factors that look at the big picture and determine their vote factoring in issues, the candidates voting records and history along with their honesty and abilities.

Be it history, affiliation, color, one issue or many issues, the determining factors that account for the decision of each single voter varies.

From the managerial point of a campaign, the name of the game is getting more votes than the opposing campaign. In doing so a campaign manager must look at the demographic breakdown of the electorate and ascertain their likely supporters in those demographics. The reason being that in order to win, you must maximize persuasion and voter turnout among the demographics that are inclined to support your candidate.

There are many different aspects that factor in to demographics. First of all they must be registered voters. You can appeal to someone who has a strong opinion but if they are not registered to vote, their opinion does not matter. You have regional concerns and the mathematics of the electoral college. You have party affiliation and religious backgrounds as well as racial demographics and age. Of all these, and even more demographic breakdowns, age, happens to be one of the most crucial.

It is a fact that out of all specialized categories of voters, senior citizens are the segment who are most dedicated in an election. It is a group that exceeds all other cross tabs including race, gender or religion.

Senior citizens cherish their vote and they use it. There are many reasons for this fact. One deals with the fact that people of retirement age have entered into a less fast paced lifestyle and are not bogged down by long commutes to work and trying to meet deadlines in between addressing all the needs of their domestic lives. This gives them more time to focus on the issues and pay more attention to them. Other reasons deal with the fact that with their age also comes the revelation of the importance in their vote. They have come to learn that the leaders of our nation have more of a direct impact on us than other citizens think or understand. Unlike some younger voters who still feel invincible and detached from the effects of Washington, D.C., senior citizens realize the direct impact that Washington has on us.

Because of these points, senior citizens are the most important voting block in almost any election and most definitely in any national election. They comprise approximately 12.5 percent of the national population. More importantly, they comprise an even larger percentage of the voting population. 79 percent of this population registered to vote in the last election and even more have registered for this election. That is the largest percentage of voters out of all other demographic groups. Furthermore, of the 79 percent who can vote, more than 71percent actually cast a ballot, accounting for the highest voter turnout of any demographic.

All this points to one thing. When you combine the issues with the likely voters on Election Day, senior citizens are one of the most important groups that a campaign can appeal to. They listen and they vote.

In this election, Barack Obama has burst on to the scene and there is incredible enthusiasm for him. Especially among so-called young voters. It is often pointed out that the size of the crowds that turnout at Obama events are humungous. I will not disagree with that but I will suggest that it has little bearing on the election. Many of these young voters do not vote. Come Election Day, they often find themselves preoccupied with other happenings in their lives and the level of importance that some of them put on their right to vote often pales in comparison to some truly less important trend of the moment. The crowds that show up for Barack may be large, but how many of those people are registered to vote? How many of them who are registered will actually make the effort to vote?

Barack Obama’s appeal to the youth vote is admirable. We need all voting age citizens to vote and many do. But the fact remains that the most reliable voters are 65 and older. It is a point not ignored by John McCain and his campaign which has not simply geared his efforts to the “hipper”, younger part of the electorate as does Obama. McCain’s appeal is rooted in accomplishments and examples and he directs it to all Americans, including seniors.

That being the case Barack Obama is losing this election based upon not only his lack of accomplishments to point to or the incongruity of his policy positions but because the direction of his campaign is tactically wrong. He is relying on a segment of the electorate that has paid little attention to the real issues. A segment of the electorate that thinks it knows all that they need to know by getting their news from MTV. Admittedly, there are many young and first time voters who pay more attention and are not swayed by Lindsay Lohan, Britney Spears or Matt Damon. That is why the youth vote is not monolithic in it’s support of democrats. Neither are golden agers. But the older, reliable, likely voters are more conservative in their thinking. They also are not as open to change as is the x-generation and VH1 or MTV crowd.

This does not bode well for a candidate who has taken his campaign to the streets of Germany and promotes change without having a record of bringing about any reform. Older citizens take pause and wonder if the type of change being offered is the type of transformation that Jimmy Carter brought to them when they were younger and lived through economic times far more difficult than we may have today. The retired voter is not impressed by commercials geared to the youth vote and claim that John McCain is out of touch because he doesn’t use e-mail. First of all John McCain doesn’t use email because the improper setting of broken bones during his Vietnam experience handicapped him and left him without the dexterity to properly use a keyboard. Secondly, many in the older generation don’t rely on e-mail, yet they are still in touch with the issues and the reality they live in.

 

According to many polls, experience is one of the most important qualities that people 55 and older look for in a candidate. Currently, polls have shown that this age group leans heavily to John McCain for that reason. They see in him someone that brings vast experience to the ticket and in his running mate they see someone who actually has experience in governing. All are qualities that they do not find in Obama. It is a point hammered home by Pennsylvania, which has the second largest senior population in the nation. In Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary for President, Clinton overwhelmingly defeated Obama in large part due to the senior population and their focus on experience.

It is also interesting to note that the three states with the highest population of seniors are also battleground states in the presidential election. Among them are Florida, which has the highest concentration of voters 65 and older.

These factors do not offer great optimism for an Obama victory. His ambiguous calls for change, his lack of experience and accomplishment along with his attempts to make McCain look out of touch and feeble do not necessarily appeal to one of the largest and most reliable group of voters in the nation.

The political professionals on the Obama team will realize all this in time. And when they do, they will pull out the DNC handbook and resort to their usual tactic of trying to scare senior citizens. They will try to scare them into believing that John McCain will steel away their social security benefits. It is a tactic that they have used in every election cycle since Reagan and it is a tactic that has failed them. In fact, it is a play on their fears that has often offended seniors and backfired on democrats. But rest assured, the democrats will panic and play that game again.

In the mean time Barack Obama should sit down and asses his campaign. He should look at the voters whom he is trying to appeal to and try to address them properly. Instead of mocking age, he should try to point out all that his age brings to the table . Instead of promoting change for change’s sake, he should develop and articulate an economic policy that would strengthen the economy and allow people to keep more of the money that they earn. Instead of appealing to Germans in Berlin he should appeal to Americans and outline his direction for keeping us safe. Instead of using text massages to make announcements such as who his running mate will be, Barack should address the people properly. Perhaps a good way to do that would be to accept John McCain’s call to joint town hall meetings with the people, where the two of them can address the people, together, in real life, not online and scripted.

In the end, the campaign that has been best at putting forth their vision to all the voters and has been able to best support that vision with real results, will win the day. However, it will not be won by continuing in the direction that the Obama campaign is going. It will not be won by trying to appeal to the youngest and most unreliable voters and offending the oldest and most reliable voters.

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FLAG-GATE

As the Democrats wrapped up their convention they also wrapped up the America flags which they used to show their patriotism. They wrapped them up in garbage bags that were set aside dumpsters outside of INVESCO Field.

According to an Obama official “All of the flags at Invesco were picked up and put in bags and into storage, along with the unused flags and campaign signs. The flags were going to be donated, and the signs were going to be sent out to be used elsewhere”. The official maintained anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the press.

But if he was authorized to speak for them would he actually claim that the garbage that contained these flags along with crumpled, handwritten Obama for President signs and crushed soda and coffee cups, was actually a system of storage?

Was placing the flags in garbage bags filled with garbage next to a dumpster some sort of shipping operation?

Putting aside the actions of the campaign for a moment, I wonder how the flags got left behind on the seats and grounds, by the Obama fans in attendance for his acceptance.

I know that after I have waved an American flag with pride, my pride does not stop when the waving stops. I would have kept that flag and taken it with me. But I guess that sense of patriotic pride and fervor does not exist with the Obama supporters at Invesco Field.

But back to Obama’s campaign, lets get this straight folks, the over 12,000 flags tossed in garbage bags, with garbage and placed next to garbage dumpsters were not intended for future use. They were not going to be recycled for the next Obama campaign stop. No, not in his campaign.

But after being found they were saved from the real and symbolic treatment offered by Obama and they were delivered in 84 neatly packed bundles by Boy Scouts to a McCain-Palin campaign event in Colorado Springs.

Now this issue is really not an issue, I admit. But there is significant symbolism in the Obama campaign’s throwing the flags away. It is also a look into the mindset of the campaign of a man running for President. It demonstrates a lack of respect. It signifies the Obama camp’s reluctance to respect the flag.

A man like John McCain who has fought and almost died for this country understands the significance and symbolism of the flag. He understands the meaning behind it as well as the nation it represent.

Barack apparently does not. The throwing away of 12,000 flags by the Obama campaign shows us that they are not for America but that they think America is for just for them. For them to take advantage of. For them to blame. They use America for themselves and care not about truly doing things for America.

On the other hand we have in John McCain a man who puts country first. A man whose respect for country and flag prohibits him from throwing it all away.

No, the throwing away of our flag is not an issue that can rise to the importance of war or life threatening diseases, but it does rise the occasion of showing us a look at ones respect and love of country.

Barack Obama did not throw these flags away but his campaign people did. They are the type of people that Barack Obama entrusts and surrounds himself with. They are the people who advise him and help reinforce his thinking.

Barack did not throw them away himself but my friend, birds of a feather flock together and his flock is not what we can put stock in.

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SARAH CINCHED IT

For over two months I have done all that I can to help influence John McCain’s vice presidential selection.You see, I did not support John McCain for president. I supported Mitt Romney for President. Then Fred Thompson entered the race and I backed him but although I was their for Thompson’s campaign, Thompson didn’t show up to his own campaign. So I went back to Mitt Romney. I felt that Romney offered more of a true adherence to conservative principles than did McCain. I liked his freshness on the national stage, his positions on the issues, his integrity, history of success and his ability to articulate the issues and his positions on them.

However, when the battle for the nomination was over and the dust settled, I knew I would be supporting John McCain’s candidacy for president. For me the starkly different directions that our choices offer made my support unquestionable. I could not ignore the facts and sacrifice the next four years of our nation‘s future by letting Barrack Obama, (or as his running mate calls him, “Barrack America) take hold of the reigns of power.

Although I was convinced of my support, I was leery. Immigration and taxes were my most pressing concerns with McCain and I was not enthusiastic. The one thing I needed for him to do to convince and energize me was to give a sign, a sign that he was willing to embrace the Reagan Republican conservative principles that we need to enforce in government.

For me that sign was in the selection of his vice president. In the first official debate, which was actually more a well done forum and less a debate, McCain said all the right things but I was still not convinced. His first major decision, the one for vice president, was what I really looked to for the assurances that I needed.

As a political consultant I wanted someone that would help him to help republicans win. That type of help would come by having someone selected as running mate that would reinforce McCain’s maverick image as a reformer. Such a quality would help win over those much treasured and important independent voters. I also knew that his choice must be someone that would also energize McCain’s base, the conservative base, people such as myself.

Scanning the political scenery, there was my man Mitt. He would still bring to the table all that we need and was right on the issues. However his wealth would be hung around the neck of our party and he did not have the cross over appeal that McCain needs.

There was Huckabee, an articulate guy with an ability to endear himself to people and a southerner that could help lock up the south. But by all rights, McCain should not have much trouble delivering the south and it’s electoral votes. In my eyes Mike Huckabee was good but still lacking the oomph that McCain needed.

For me, that left Haley Barbour of Mississippi or John Thune of South Dakota. But again both of these deserving men lacked the edge we needed. So with my consulting hat on I tried to look for the illusive “oomph” that we needed combined with the Reaganesque philosophy that I want in a potential president.

In the face of a candidate running on “change” I know we need to highlight one of McCain’s greatest characteristics……his maverick, reform minded image. I also wanted to match the sense of historic value that Obama’s color had running for the Democrats.

As someone who is not just a casual observer of politics, but in fact, an obsessed student of it, all roads led to one person. A governor, a woman governor named Sarah Palin.

I was aware of her activity and her experience. I knew the natural progression of events which led to her ability to turn Alaska politics on it’s ear.

She was a successful Mayor, small town or not. She rooted out corruption on an Alaskan oil commission and the fact that the corruption she saw was being carried out by fellow Republicans did not prevent her from rooting it out. Actually it was the impetus for her being able to take on the powerful, Republican, Alaskan Governor Frank Murkowski and defeat him in a primary election battle for his own seat.

I was aware of the fact that this first term, Alaska, governor championed reform, knew that taxes were a burden that need to be alleviated and not implemented as a solution and I knew that she was the most convincing and strongest voice on an issue of utmost importance in this election…energy.

Combining all this with the fact the she embraces the ideology I want implemented in government along with her record of doing so and the fact that she was a she, well I just knew that this woman was the right woman at the right time. She fit the logistics of this campaign, and of this time, better than anyone else, including Mitt Romney.

Now that I found the right piece of the puzzle I could only hope and pray that John McCain would see how well it fit too. I wanted him to pick Sarah Palin as his running mate and prove to me that he has the judgment that we need and that he was the conservative that he claims to be.

As we all now know, last Friday, John McCain did so and in doing so the hell gates opened and the slander mongers went into overdrive. In subsequent blogs we will get into this but for now let us deal with the fact that our inevitable nominee did the right thing by choosing Sarah Palin and rejoice.

With all the left wing attacks, their double standard, blatant disdain for Republicans and relentless scrutiny of her family, there was just one hurdle to cross….the first impression, her acceptance speech.

Well tonight we heard it and the left, including the drive-by media, got it and got it good.

Sarah Palin lived up to her nickname Sarah Barracuda, and she did so with precision, dignity and conviction. Her acceptance speech allowed me to let out a deep sigh of relief before I jumped to my feet with jubilation, enthusiasm and gratitude. I was relieved that she passed the first major test of her worthiness for the job . I knew that she had the qualities, record and ability for the job but could she convey it all in one speech that would provide for her first national impression.

She did!

And so tonight I am convinced. I am convinced in John McCain and his being a hero that will provide us with a heroic administration of leadership as our president. I am convinced and I am energized.

Hence the creation of this blog.

John McCain has won me over and Sarah Palin has inspired me. So much so that
I vow to not allow these two people or my party to be discredited by the radical left anymore. No longer will I allow the dirty deeds of democrats to go ignored. I shall not fight fire with fire. I will take a lesson from the leader of the next generation entrusted with the conservative agenda, the lady I call Fire and Nice, Sarah Palin, and I will not act like democrats. I will not lie and cheat. I will not distort the facts but I will present the facts. This will be much to the dismay of today’s liberal Democrats because the facts are not kind to them but armed with those facts I can and will tell the truth. I will not need to stoop to the level that the liberal media and party hacks do in their politics pursuits. That does not mean I will not hurt their feelings. It just means that in light of the left wing media and the party they openly make allegiance to, I will speak the truth that they do not.

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