Poll Shows Incumbents Are At A Disadvantage In Today’s Elections

Bookmark and Share    A new poll conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates between the 27th and 29th of pollstersOctober has found that as voters go to the polls on this Election Day, they are anything but happy.

Of likely voters only 27% of the respondents consider health care the top issues of concern to them, 13 % believe that tackling the deficit and controlling government spending are the top priority but half of those likely to vote on Election Day (50%), claim that the economy and unemployment are the most important issue of all right now.

The poll also found that as voters head to the polls on Tuesday, 59% of them believe the nation is on the wrong track.

This means that a vast majority of Americans will be walking into voting booths and wanting a change in course and policy. This should frighten incumbents, maybe not those on the local levels which the bulk of the 2009 elections will be effecting, but those in state legislative elections and especially those in statewide elections have to be concerned. As the only incumbent Governor on the ballot this year, New Jersey’s Jon Corzine should probably be the most concerned as voters pull the lever throughout the day. Under the current atmosphere that this poll documents, incumbents like are at a disadvantage.

Ina generic ballot, when asked how likely voters feel about Congressional Republicans and Democrats, Republicans come out 7% ahead of their liberal counterparts. 42% prefer Congressional Republicans while 35% feel better about Democrats in the House and Senate.

Interestingly, the poll found likely to be evenly split concerning both their opinion of President Obama and his job approval rating. But on his health care and insurance reforms voters are not evenly split. When asked how they felt about President Obama’s health reform plans, 30% favor it while a decisive 12 % plurality for a total of 51% of likely voters oppose it.

How that will translate when individual members of Congress cast their votes which should reflect the opinion of their constituents is still not known. What is known though is that incumbent members of the Senate and the House are on shaky ground. Ultimately, that puts Democrat in much more trouble than Republicans. Since democrats have the majority, they also have more incumbents and these days incumbents are the enemy. That will give Republican challengers a distinct advantage as today’s election plays out and we move on toward the 2010 midterm elections.

Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates is an experienced and leading international survey research and strategic consulting for more than two decades. This particular poll was taken among 1,000 likely voters and it has yet to be entirety. According FMA, this survey also delves into the most completive13 Senate and 47 House races in the nation. Those opinions may offer greater insight into just how scared incumbents should be today, as well as next November.

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2 Comments

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2 responses to “Poll Shows Incumbents Are At A Disadvantage In Today’s Elections

  1. Although I can understand some measures that help to deny the establishment stacking things in their favor, such as the implementation of term limits, I can’t make excuses for the ignorance of voters. If a voter can’t follow simple instruction and vote in what actually is a simple process, than no one can help them. Furthermore, if a voter is so ignorant that they do not know who the incumbent represernting them is, then I almost believe that such a person should not be voting in the first place. I appreciate educated voters, voters who take their civic responsibility seriously. People who do not know who their councilman,mayor, assemblyman, state senator, congressman and/or U.S. senators are, obviously do not pay attention to the issues and obviously they don’t care enough to deal with the issues that their representatives are dealing with for them. So in the case of this particular question, I must admit that it is not the system that needs changing in this regard. It is the attention span and seriousness of our citizenry which needs changing. If more people took the time to…..just a few moments a week, to understand what is going on, than perhaps the “ins” would not be able to get over on them as much people claim they do.

  2. How can we make changes to the system? It will not be easy…many voters, although sincere and loyal….are confused by the layouts and misleading language on the votingn ballots…along with the fact that no incumbent politician is identified anymore on the ballot…so if voters are not aware who holds the office, then how will they make a decision…seems like the ones who have the largest bankroll establishes name reocognition…without being held responsible by being identified an the ‘ins’…relhurg

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