Election Eve 2009 Offers a Mix of Blowouts & Nail Biters But Republicans Look Good

Bookmark and Share    As voting on Election Day 2009 is about to begin in just a mere few hours, most of the races Election 2009taking place in America are municipal elections.  These local elections are in many ways, the most important ones.   The effects of the leaders elected on the local level have some of the greatest effects on a community and they certainly have the most immmeduate impact.  These municapal elections determine just about how everything is done, including that which begins at the state and federal levels.  While the federal government or your state government may daw up budget and allocate money to local governments,  it is your local municipality which actual spends it.  Will they spend it quickly?   Will they spend ity effectively?  Will they use it in ways that can be considered valuable investments for the future of the town you live in?

Local elections are indeed quite important.  They do not get the same amount of attention that the only two races for Governor get during this election cycle, but you have to be sure to give the local election in your neck of the woods, the attention it deserves.  

As for those much focussed on Governors races, as we approach the start of voting in New Jersey and Virginia it would seem that some trends are continuing and others are still evolving.

Creigh Deeds

Democrat Creigh Deeds

In The Old Dominion, Democrat Ceigh Deeds continues to plummet to earth without a parachute.  His campaign lacked any believable sense of responsible leadership and failed to convince a vast majority of Virginians that he can make things better for the people of the state.  Most of Deed’s campaign consisted of a focus on a college thesis that his Republican opponent wrote over twenty years ago.  The paper described working women and feminists as “detrimental” to the family and said government policy should favor married couples over “cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators.”

Republican Bob McDonnell explained that his college thesis did not reflect the opinions that age, time and experience have afforded him.  Hed even pointed to the career of his wife and his daughters military service in Iraq, as evidence of his feelings about women’s rights and equality. 

Bob McDonnell

Virginia Republican Bob McDonnell

The issue was the only hope that Deeds and Democrats had of turning his floundering campaign around.  It failed.  So Deeds did what all Democrats are doing right.  They try to morph themselves into President Obama and trying  hard to get the President to come in and campaign for them.    For Deeds, that too seems to be failing.  Currently he is bracing for a loss by a whopping 11% but possibly be by as much as 18%.   Such results should require an immediate apology from Deeds to the people of Virginia that excuse his failure to be a canddiate that anyone can take seriously.

The only real question in Virginia now is, how big will McConnell’s coat tails be and how many Republicans will he sweep into office in the Virginia state legislature.

In New Jersey, after blowing his own, one time, nearly 18% lead over Democrat Governor Jon Corzine, Republican Chris Christie fell behind Corzine.  As of last week Corzine was ahead of Christie by as much as 4% and 6%.  But now, in the closing hours just about every poll places Chris Christie ahead by 2% . A poll by Piblic Policy has him ahead by as 6% on this electeion eve.  RealClearPolitics closes out the race theis way:

  •  42.6%     Chris   Chris Christie (R)
  •  41.6%      Jon Corzine (D)
  •  10.4%     Chris Daggett (I)

The story here is that New Jersey Republicans mucked up this one and turned this once slam dunk win into a nailbiter.  Governor Corzine has been a dismal failure who produced more bad than good for New Jerseyans and everyone——-everyone knows it.  That is why Corzine, a horrible campaigner, has, like Creigh deeds in Virginia, turned to President Obama  to save him from the type of embarrassment that Deeds will have to endure.  But that alone is not responsible for Corzine’a ability to make this election competetive.  The rest of the reason is due to Chris Christie. 

He sucks. 

That’s it, plain and simple. 

He has absolutely no message, offers no convincing evidence of proper leadership and like Corzine, is also not a very good candidate on the campaign trail.

So here we are, looking at a toss up.  My gut tells me that Chrsitie will pull it out.  But I am not too sure about that.  If he does win, it will be a remarkable event and dramatic signal. 

Republican Chris Christie

Republican Chris Christie

Whether Democrats want to admit it or not, the election in New Jersey will be a referendum on President Obama.  Democrats have made sure of that.  They have tied Corzine and Deeds to Obama at the hip.  Corzine runs billboards of him standing behind the President with the slogan “Obama – Corzine”.  They are trying to get people to believe that a vote for Corzine is more a vote for President Obama than it is for the Governor.  So make no doubt, this election is a refendum on the President and the liberal leadership in Washington D.C.  This is made more clear by the fact that if a lackluster and down right horrible candidate like Chris Christie can win, it is not because anyone really likes him or his policies.  Christie has not dedtailed any policies, so who knows what he wants to do.  The only reason Christie could possibly win is because Corzine is so bad, that most people cannot deny it and they are not too pleased with the President either.

Adding to the miracle it will be if Chrtistie wins, is the third party candidacy of Chris Daggett.

Dagget is taking anywhere from 4 to 10% of the vote.  A significant portion of his votes would have been ballots cast for Christie, had Daggett not been in the race.  That puts Christie at an even greater disadvantage than Corzine.  Add to that the limit to under $11 million that Christie was able to spend in his campaign and compare it to the almost $40 million of  the persoanl wealth that Corzine invested into his own reelection effort.

All together, these things do not add up to a Christie victory.  Yet he just might do it.  Why?  Because people are fed up

Chris Daggett New Jersey Independent

Independent Chris Daggett

 and they don’t buy President Obama’s faslse hope claims.   They also know that voting to reelcet Corzine is like buying a ticket on the Hidenburg or the Titanic.   So this one will be clos, despite all of the President’s campaigning for Corzine in New Jersey.   The reason I am not convinced that Christie will win  is because I fear that the strategy Corzine went with , may work among an electorate that is not excited by his opponent Chris Christie.

Corzine has focussed on drawing out an unsusally high Jewish and Africa-American vote.  Hoping that many of the other ethnic groups in the state will be evenly split, Jon Corzine has put all his money on attracting the record African-American voter turnout that existed for the President in 2008.   Governor Corzine has been trying to on a formula that Democrats hope will allow him to recieve at least 1 more vote than Chris Christie. Between his focus on the African American community  and special attention to the Jewish community, the Governor and his Lieutenant Governor running mate,  Lorreta Weinberg are hoping that it will provide the votes needed to win.  

For a Governor who has been so bad that he needs a miracle to win, that stategy is a Hail Mary pass of sorts, but it is all Corzine has.

Corzine Obama billboardIn the end, I am not sure the formula will add up, but Christie is so bad that it just might be enough.  For now though, I believe that despite all that is against Christie.  Despite his poor campaign, lack of money and there being no reason to vote for him other than to send a message to Democrats, I think the miracle will, God help us, be Christie’s. 

Beyond the two big statewide races, there is of course New York 23, the special election for to fill a vacant congressional seat.  Republican Dede Socazzafava turned this race into a national fracas.  As a pure liberal, many questioned how and why she was the republican nominee.  In came Doug Hoffman, a man of no great import accept for the fact that he is conservative.  So many flocked to his candidacy that in the end Scozzafava dropped out and endorsed the Democrat Bill Owens.

This congressional seat has been in Republican hands since the Civil War.   If Owens wins, the GOP can thank Scozzafava and she claim to have made history.  The race is so far too close to call but a goof GOTV operation could make all the difference here. 

The only other race of mention is New York City, where the once republicam Mayor Mike Bllomberg circumvented term limits to run for a third time.  New York is a 5 to 1 Democrat to Republican city.  Yet despite the Citys’ Democrat instincts, they have not elected a Democrat to the position of Mayor since 1993.  They have been so incredibly incompetent in New york City that even fellow Democrats don’t like their party much.  After Democrat Mayor David Dinkins drove New York City into  a coma and Republican Rudy Giuliani brought it back to life, City residents began to look at their choices.  In doing so, they have not liked what the Democrat Party had to offer.  So even though they hate Republicans, they voyed for them.

Now, Democrats are running the City’s Comptroller, an  African-American man named William Thompson.   You would think that with all the campaigning that President Obama has been doing for fellow Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey, he might at least show up once in New York City to help a brutha out.  But Democrats in New York are so pittiful that even President Obama isn’t lending his name to their nominee for Mayor. 

William Thompson

Democrat mayoral Nominee Bill Thompson

The only suspense in this race is if Bloomberg can win by as much as 12 to 15%.  Thompson has been tightening things up in the last few days but he is so far behind that he the best he probably can do is to only lose by as much 8 to 10%.   Yet, you are soon led to understand that losing by 8 to 10% is not bad when you examine the situation in NYC.  Especially when you  factor in the money that Mike Bloomberg is investing into his own campaign for Mayor. 

Mayor Mike has broken just about every spending record for political campaigns, there is. 

In this run for mayor, Bloomberg  is spending more than $85 million.   Bill Thompson  is spending a  measly $8 million dollars.  It is a  campaign budget that can’t possibly  compete with the Mayor’s campaign which is financed by Bloomberg’s personal net worth of more than  $17 billion bucks. 

NYC Mayor Mike BloombergTo put Mike Bloomberg’s spending into perspective,  consider this.   The wealthy Jon Corzine has so far spebt $130 million of his own money on one senate race and two races for Governor.  Money magnate Steve Forbes spent $114 million in his two races for the Republican  presidential nomination and the eccentric Ross Perot invested $75 million in his two bids for President. 

What has Mike Bllomberg spent so far,  in his three mayoral races?

More than $250 million dollars.

So tomorrow, I don’t know when i’m voting, but I do know that I’m heading to New York City where the real money is.  All these other fools are trying to be President Obama, when they could be getting on the good side of a man who wont waste time  trying to get your vote.  He spends his time buying your vote.

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