Yet, despite the polls I have a feeling that polls are a bit off.
We know that all the polls have been recalibrated to make up for assumed higher democratic turnout as well as a higher than normal number of first time, younger and African-American voters. In trying to adjust their polling results for these anticipated factors, pollsters have intentionally polled more democrats than usual. That would of course account for more positive results for democrats than for republicans.
Given the current political atmosphere such tweaking of the polls probably does reflect the actual voter turnout and help to make the poll results more accurate. Probably, but not definitely. I have a feeling that many of theses polls, which already have a liberal bend to them, may have been bent toward the left much further than necessary .
If that is the case, it still does not mean that Obama is not favored in this election. He is, but I don’t think by quite as much as the polls would have us believe. I hope not anyway.
In fact “hope” is what I am really going on here. Hope and a sense that not quite everyone is convinced that Barack Obama is the great savior that liberals make him out to be. In fact I do believe that many people see Barack Obama as an unaccomplished blowhard who only has experience with running his mouth.
The hopeful sense of something not being right with the polls and that most people do not trust Obama, leads me to make a hail Mary pass and predict McCain to be the winner. This sense of hope is reached because I do not believe most people trust Obama’s experience and believe him to be sincere. I also think they do not appreciate his promise to spread the wealth through increasing the size and scope of government.
Additionally I believe that Obama has not closed the sale in these final days.
Given the undeniably negative atmosphere for republicans and the undeniable popularity of state and local democrat candidates further down the ballot, Obama should be ahead by a lot more than he actually is. Given the popularity of local democrats, Obama’s poll numbers are much lower than they should be.
So it is with more of a sixth sense than facts that leads me to predict that John McCain will win with 286 electoral votes to
This leap of faith gives McCain the most hotly contested states of Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. If he can actually win Pennsylvania and Virginia it would also indicate that other hotly contested battlegrounds states like Missouri and Nevada are also likely to trend towards McCain, so I also call them for him.
Is this likely? If you believe in some of the polls, no, its not. But I believe in miracles. I have made myself believe that even though McCain’s campaign sucked and never properly articulated our case, the right combination of people in the right number of states know that this election is less about personalities and more about ideologies. I believe that enough people know that the differences between Obama and McCain are wide. They understand that on the economy one moves to socialism and the other tries to strengthen our economy. That one wants to raise taxes and spread a small amount of wealth while the other wants to lower taxes and spread the opportunity to achieve greater wealth. I still believe that most Americans prefer the candidate who waves the American flag more than the candidate who wants America to wave the white flag of surrender.
If such sentiments do exist, maybe people are not voting as much for McCain or Obama as they are for the principles that they represent. If that is the case than I truly believe that most people support the American way over the old Soviet way. I believe most people believe more in John McCain’s way than Obama’s way.
All of this causes me to feel that we just might relive a “Dewey Defeats Truman-like episode in history.
The problem with that thinking though, is that back in 1948 polls were only taken up till the week before the election. The data that the media was basing their projections on did not include the seven days leading up to the election. They did not capture the undecided voters who broke for Truman during the closing days of that election.
Today, polls are being taken and interpreted up to the very last minute. That makes up for the mistakes that were made when The Chicago Tribune erroneously declared that Tom Dewey beat President Harry Truman. But a boy can dream, can’t he? History does repeat itself, occasionally. So maybe, just maybe we can be experiencing a little déjà vu. Maybe the apparent tightening of the polls in these closing days are being undervalued and causing pollsters to underestimate the depth of support for John McCain’s candidacy.
My heart tells me McCain does it. Logic tells me that Obama will be President. But, like millions of Americans who are voting for Obama based on his appealing to their hearts more than their heads, on this one, I am going with my heart and believing that Senator John McCain will win and spare our nation from a costly education in socialism.
Twas the Night Before Elections . . .
Twas the night before elections
And all through the town
Tempers were flaring
Emotions all up and down!
I, in my bathrobe
With a cat in my lap
Had cut off the TV
Tired of political crap.
When all of a sudden
There arose such a noise
I peered out of my window
Saw Obama and his boys
They had come for my wallet*
They wanted my pay*
To give to the others*
Who had not worked a day!*
He snatched up my money
And quick as a wink
Jumped back on his bandwagon
As I gagged from the stink
He then rallied his henchmen
Who were pulling his cart
I could tell they were out
To tear my country apart!
On Fannie, on Freddie,
On Biden and Ayers!
On Acorn, On Pelosi’
He screamed at the pairs!
They took off for his cause
And as he flew out of sight
I heard him laugh at the nation
Who wouldn’t stand up and fight!
So I leave you to think
On this one final note-
IF YOU DONT WANT SOCIALISM
GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!