ELECTION NIGHT SCHEDULE AND PREDICTIONS

Election night can and will be very interesting but if you have yourself the right tools it could be a short one.  Certain state races could be quite telling and barring any voter machine falures or an obvious voter scandal that calls for the impounding of ballots, if some of those states go one way or the other, you couid know who the next President will be buy as early as 8:00 pm.  Maybe even earlier.
 
But to reach that conclusion you need the right tools.  So here it is, your own little election night guide.
It’s kind of like a racing slip for the Kentucky Derby of elections. 

Below you will find the scheduled poll closing times for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.  You will also find the play by play for one election night scenario.

 
7PM Eastern
Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
 
At 7:00 pm the first polls close In Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. If the results are not particularly close, projections could be made within minutes. Vermont will be a landslide and it will be called for Senator Barack Obama. Kentucky, South Carolina and Georgia will also have pluralities large enough s to safely call them,  but they will be for Senator John McCain.  These results may come in relatively quickly, probably by 7:10 to 7:20 PM.

Virginia is also, usually, called rather quickly but I suspect that there will not be a rapid rush to call Virginia for Obama or McCain. With polls claiming that the Virginia race is in the bag for Barack Obama by as much as 10% and others having the race as close as 2% combined with the high voter turnout, calling this one quickly may be tough.. Ultimately though, Virginia is likely going blue. If it does, McCain is in trouble. By losing Virginia, Senator McCain will need to make up for the loss of their 11 electoral votes and he will have to do so within a map that offers him few opportunities. It will not be impossible to make them up but difficult. However, Indiana closes it’s polls at this time and if Indiana goes to Barack Obama, especially with Virginia going the same way, than you can start hiding your money under the mattresses because you can safely say that President Obama will be living in the White House

An average of all polls in Indiana give Barrack Obama an edge over McCain by less than half of 1 percent but if there is any state that is likely to lean in McCain’s direction it is Indiana so if McCain does get it, the first round of poll closings should result with John McCain receiving 42 electoral college votes to Obama’s 16.                                      

7:30PM Eastern
Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina

The biggest player in this second round, Ohio, will probably be the most conclusive of all. If Senator McCain losses their 20 electoral votes, the possibility to win any combinations that reaches the magic number of 270 electoral votes is highly unlikely. To do so he would need Pennsylvania, Missouri, Florida, Colorado, Indiana as well as two other state that may have already been called for Obama, Virginia and North Carolina.  That would leave Obama with only 265 to McCain’s 273. This highly doubtful.
West Virginia is unquestionably in McCain’s column and despite the current polls of these states, in this second set of closings, I expect McCain to win Ohio in and North Carolina.   Conventional wisdom and history would seem to make this very possible if not likely. So we give them to him. That brings the total count for John McCain to 82 electors to Obama’s 16.


8:00PM Eastern

Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

Now 8:00 pm arrives. If McCain received any of the necessary combinations needed up to this point, here too, is a do or die situation for John McCain. It also produces one of the most lucrative results of all poll closing times. 171 electoral votes are up for grabs at this point and it includes some of the south which is strong territory for McCain. The problem is that much of Obama’s true blue northeastern states also turn out their results at 8 o‘clock. The results for the Obama rich megalopolis from Massachusetts in the Northeast to DC in the Mid Atlantic begins to pour out for him here. It also includes the crucial states of Pennsylvania and Missouri. Most important of all for McCain will be the sunshine state of Florida.  We can safely say that of the states in this 8:00 pm round of poll closings, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee will break for McCain. That gives him 33 more electors bringing him up to 115.

Obama will definitely take Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Washington, DC and his home state of Illinois. That’s a total of 84 bringing Obama up to 95votes in the electoral college.

That leaves us with the battleground states of Missouri and two of the biggest cliff hangers in this 8:00 pm closing time. They are some of the biggest prizes in the electoral sweepstakes , Pennsylvania and Florida.

Parts of Florida close ealier than 8:00 pm.  But by 8 pm, the panhandle, which is in a different time zone form the rest of the state,  makes the results in Florida official.  In the 2000 election, the pro-Gore media ignored this fact and called the election for Gore before these results were in.  I do not expect them to make the same error this time.

With an average of polls showing McCain trailing in Florida by 2.2 %, he can pull it off. If he does, it gives him a total of 142 electoral votes and he will still be in the race for at least another half hour and the next rounds of results.

With the polls almost as close in Missouri as they are in Florida, I will put Missouri in Mac’s column too. Now he is up to 153.

The remaining state in this group, Pennsylvania, is becoming interesting.

Obama’s reference to the citizens of the western part of the state “bitterly clinging to their guns and religion” along with their own Congressman John Murtha first calling them racists and than apologizing by calling them rednecks, Pennsylvania could be in play and I think it just might be the surprise of the night.  I think McCain will win it by a whisper.   If the polls in Pennsylvania are as inaccurate as I believe, and it does go McCain’s way, he will now have 174 electoral votes.

I do regret that this is looking unlikely.  McCain most likely will not be able to pull it off. Currently Mac is in back by as much as 11% here. That would give Obama 116 electoral votes and would also likely seal his winning the 2008 election for President of the United States.

If the scenario goes the way I have suggested, so far, and McCain can pull off Pennsylvania,  Senator McCain is still viable when we get to 8:30 pm and the next polls close.

8:30PM

Arkansas

By the time many of the 8:00 pm results are being tabulated and projections are being made in other states, parts of Arkansa start reporting results.  Arkansas, with it’s 6 electoral votes closes it’s polls at 8:30 pm. By 9:00 pm all voting is completed in Arkansas and the results should be conclusive enough to call it for McCain. That would bring the Republican nominee up to 180 electors.

9:00PM Eastern

Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

At 9:00 pm., the polls close in 14 more states. It concludes the Northeast where Obama wins New York and Rhode Isalnd bringing Obama up to 130 electoral votes, just 50 less than McCain. But McCain will be able to safely claim victories in the results from states outside of the Northeast. Such as his home state of Arizona.  Others include South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Louisiana, Kansas and the second largest prize, Texas. That will bring John McCain up to 250.

In addition to New York and Rhode Island, Senator Obama should easily claim 42 more electoral votes from the combined total of victories in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Barack Obama will now have 172 electoral votes in his column.

That leaves Colorado. Obama is ahead here but it is not a insurmountable lead for John McCain to overcome. However, trends would indicate to me that Obama will take Colorado and after the 9:00 pm results have been projected it will be Barack Obama 181electoral votes to John McCain’s 250.

 

10:00PM Eastern

Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

At 10:00 pm 4 more state polls close and throw their combined 20 electoral votes into the ring. Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah should all be good states for McCain but Obama’s has a lead in Iowa that will not be overtaken and so Obama will get their 7 electors. McCain should take Montana and will take the state that consistently gives Republicans some of the widest margins of victory in all elections, Utah. Now it’s 258 Mccain to 188 for Obama.

Yet again another crucial state for McCain will be Nevada. If he manages to win Virginia earlier in the evening and still wins Ohio and Missouri the final result would be 269 to 269. Obama would still win any such tie in the electoral college by a majority of states controlled by democratic congressional delegations but if McCain happened to change New Hampshire’s direction and won the granite state, he would be the next President.
Fact is that McCain is behind Obama by an average of 3.3 % in Nevada.   Even though that is a smaller margin than in other states, Obama will probably pull Nevada off. His ground game and union support from hotel workers and gambling interests in Las Vegas make him tough to beat here. So now it’s Obama’s 193 to McCain’s 258. If McCain did happen to win Nevada it still wont matter. The Obama blue tide to come will inevitably doom McCain to his last campaign for President.

                                                                           

11:00PM Eastern
California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington

By 11:00 pm. Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington State and the largest electoral prize, California, all close their poll.
McCain will undoubtedly take Idaho and North Dakota which would bring his electoral vote count to 265. Obama is going to win Hawaii, Oregon and the state of Washington overwhelmingly, which brings him up to 215 votes.

Then California’s whopping 55 electoral votes will be handed over to Senator Barack Obama like the Oscar being awarded to the years best actor at the Academy Awards ceremony. The Keith Olbermanns, Chris Matthews, Tom Brokaws and other liberal loving loons will be able to rejoice with certainty because Barack Obama will have a total of 270 electoral votes. That would be just the right number needed to win .

                                                                             

1:00AM Eastern – Alaska

It won’t be over though. With iceberg like speed, Alaska will make it official at 1:00 am and cast all three of their electoral votes for John McCain and their popular Governor, Sarah Palin. That would give the McCain-Palin ticket a total of 268 electoral votes or 2 short of what he would have needed to win.

Of course there are 4 different possible scenarios that could create a victory for John McCain.   Some include winning Pennsylvania while also taking Nevada while still losing in Virginia.  Other scenarios don’t allow McCain to prevail but are more interesting. One actually is a tie in the electoral college with a combination of state wins for McCain that includes New Hampshire.  All are unlikely.  It is even unlikely that McCain will win Pennsylvania.  
 
The bottom line though is, that if current polls are correct,  McCain will probably lose not only Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina but Florida as well as Pennsylvania and Missouri. 

Either way one should be able to tell who won by between 8:00 pm and 8:30 pm.  It could be even earlier than that.  If when the polls close at 7:00 pm, Indiana has Obama winning their electoral college votes, than you can rest assured that McCain probably can’t pull out victories in some of the other states that he needs and are less friendly to his candidacy than Indiana is.

 
If after 7:30 pm,North Carolina bolted it’s previous red hue and went blue for Obama, even if McCain won in Indiana, that could prove to be fatal.  If North Carolina votes for Obama it will most likely precludes Senator John McCain from being able to achieve the minimal number of 270 electoral required to win the election. 
Polls have been known to be wrong and there is still a chance for McCain to win. Obama has not locked up states like Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina or even Colorado and Virginia.  New Hampshire could alos start changing directions as undecided voters begin to break in his direction. 

In any event I am confident in this fact.  Obama will win the popular vote  He will do so even if he losses the election in the electoral college.  I make this claim because Obama will produce the highest voter turnout we have ever seen in our urban centers, the areas where the highest concentration of voters are.

Obama will produce victories in heavily populated states like New York and California, Michigan and even in Florida.  Barack Obama will win with exorbitant pluralities, especially in cities.  Because of those high concentration of voters he will win some states with those highly populated, big cities by a million or more votes.  Whereas McCain will win in smaller states and by smaller margins.  Margins more like tens or hundreds of thousands as opposed to millions.

  
The margin of victories will not matter as much as the electoral college vote.  So if McCain can win some key states like Missouri, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, even by a small margin, it won’t matter how many millions Obama beats McCain by in places like New York, Illinois or California and you can rest assured that Obama will beat him big time in those places.
  
I actually fear the reaction that we might encounter from the electorate if McCain wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote to Obama.  It is a reaction that will probably effect us more than the presidenciy of either McCain or Obama.
  
 Below Are Some Of The Likely Scenarios
This map depicts the results articulated in the above account

This map depicts the results articulated in the above account

A very possible mccain victory scenario

A very possible mccain victory scenario

A less likely but still possible McCain victory scenario

A less likely but still possible McCain victory scenario

The unlikely but very possible tied election result

The unlikely but very possible tied election result

 

One of the more likely Obama victory maps

One of the more likely Obama victory maps

The most of the most likely Obama victory results

Another Obama possible win scenario

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Republicans Democrats

The difference between Republicans & Democrats

 A Republican and a Democrat were walking down the street when they came to a homeless person.

The republican gave the homeless person his business card and told him come to his business for a job. He then took twenty dollars out of his pocket and gave it to the homeless person.

The Democrat was very impressed, and when they came to another homeless person, He decided to help. He walked over to the homeless person and gave him directions to the welfare office. He then reached into the Republicans pocket and gave him fifty dollars.

Photobucket

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3 Comments

Filed under politics

3 responses to “ELECTION NIGHT SCHEDULE AND PREDICTIONS

  1. kempite

    Shit Head………critical commentary would require some sort of factual foundation and the intelligence to develop such foundation. Your liberal based hypocrisy and inability to dispute facts proves that you are incapable of offering any sense of valid “critical commentary”.

    So, I suggest that you take your inconsequential, factless and juvenile spam and stick it where the bulk of your liberal philosophy and brains lie….up your ass!

  2. me yu

    in fact, you should filter out all critical commentary, so you can maintain that imaginary world that republicans cling too … where there is no dissent … and every liberal is a strawman you can easily pin a weak argument on – to bash it to bits in your private little imaginary world

  3. me yu

    you can go ahead and delete this one too

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