Monthly Archives: November 2010

New Jersey GOP Profits From Chris Christie & So Does the State

Other than Grover Cleveland, New Jersey has never really been known for its Republican leaders. There have been no Lincolns or Reagans to hail from it. There have been no Glodwaters or Jack Kemps to claim it as home in recent years. We’ve had some fair governors like Christine Todd Whitman and Tom Kean but none have profoundly led the G.O.P. or set a tone for the Party on a national level.

But in 2009, unbeknownst to most, that all changed.

In less than 1 year’s time, after defeating liberal Governor Jon Corzine, Chris Christie burst on to the scene and in no time at all proved that he was not your ordinary Republican and certainly not your run of the mill Northeastern liberal Republican.

He came into promising that he would govern as if he intended to only be a one term Governor. He said this because he refused to allow himself to be beholden to the powers that be and the special interests and powerbrokers who peddle political favors for government kickbacks.

So far Christie, has lived up to that promise. He has taken on the biggest unions in the state. He has adopted fiscal restraint and slashed the budget of every state government agency and department in order to balance the budget and get spending under control. He has made many hard decisions and most New Jerseyans have no regrets over the choices he made.

Along the way, all of Christie’s actions have echoed loudly and far beyond the borders of the Garden State. From Kennebunkport to California, Chris Christie’s actions have given rise to a true profile in courage which leaders all over America want to emulate. Which is why Chris Christie spend a month worth of time campaigning for the elections of Republicans to congress, the U.S. Senate and statehouses. His legendary prowess as a fiscal conservative who knows when and how to say no, during a time with a President that feels spending is the answer to everything, has made Christie a novelty and turned him into a national figure and in some cases a national hero.

So it is only logical for the New Jersey Republican State Committee to try and capitalize Christie’s fame. That’s is why, under the stupendous leadership of Assemblyman and Republican State Chairman Jay Weber, the N.J.G.O.P. has begun to sell Chris Christie gear. From mugs and bumper stickers to T-shirts and hoodies, conservative can purchase items that signify their appreciation for common sense, fiscal restraint and the man who has come to represent such concepts .

Proceeds from the sales go directly to the N.J.G.O.P. which unlike most states will be holding critical state legislative races and end up having much to do with the redistricting process that will draw the district lines from which every House and state legislative candidate will run in for the following ten years.

The effort is one that is sure to bring some sorely needed bucks for next years legislative races. So I for one commend the N.J.G.O.P. for their bright packaging of our Governor to the rest of the nation and taking advantage of his popularity. I mean why not? It’s not anyone could have made money off of Jon Corzine sweatshirts. I also thank Governor Christie for making New Jersey proud again and for becoming one of those few great Republican leaders that we can proudly say hails from New Jersey.

Click Here To Get Your Christie Gear

     

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Pelosi; The Gift To Republicans That Keeps On Giving

Nancy Pelosi
Minority Leader To Be?

With the decision of Nancy Pelosi to maintain her role as leader of House Democrats, the 2010 midterms elections continue to produce good news for Republicans.

The move is quite frankly a foolishly detrimental one for her Party, a political entity which the American electorate adamantly rejected and which resulted in a record number of Republican victories from the local and state level, to the federal level in the House and Senate. Many of these victories were won in campaigns that made Nancy Pelosi the main issue. Nearly every Republican running for the House, publicly and loudly pointed out to their audiences that the very first vote that their liberal opponent had cast during the last Congress, was for Nancy Pelosi to become their leader. In many debate’s Republican challengers asked “will you or will you not vote for Nancy Pelosi as your leader”? To this, in order to save their reelection chances, quite a few had to answer “no”. Unfortunately for them though, the fact that they once did vote for her, didn’t save many of these candidates. But with approval ratings in the 20’s, it is no surprise that Nancy Pelosi was of no help to any Democrat.

That is why her desire to continue being the face of House Democrats is a bit surprising.

Obviously, the soon to be former Speaker is thinking more about herself than her Party. If she was sincere about wanting what is best for Democrats and what will best help promote the liberal agenda, she would have stepped aside and allowed a new face to be placed on the Democrat Party, a face that was not as disliked and as much of a drag on her Party and its policies.

Of course it has yet to be seen if Nancy will be successful in her bid to be elected Minority Leader. Some Democrats that did squeak by in the 2010 elections, have promised their constituents that they would not vote for Pelosi. In order for that to happen, there must be an alternative candidate to support over her. So who may be so bold as to come forward and offer themselves as that alternative? Well Alabama’s Bobby Bright could be one. He was the first to officially come out in October and declare that he would not support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. But in August of 2010, after Bright publicly joked that Democrat’s chances in the midterm elections might be better if Pelosi would “get sick and die“, Democrats may not feel too confident in Bright’s ability to say the right things as their leader.

A more realistic challenger may be Heath Shuler, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House. On Thursday, Shuler stated that if Pelosi does actually move to run for Minority Leader, he will challenge her. This should not be news. All through ought Shuler’s very tough reelection effort, he campaigned among his constituents by promising that if Democrats held the House, he would challenge Pelosi for the job of Speaker.

While Shuler is to date, the House Democrat to be most dramatic in his opposition to Pelosi, many others such as Kentucky’s John Yarmuth and Oklahoma’s David Boren are just some of the remaining moderate and conservative Democrats, who still exist in Congress and are also registering their opposition to Pelosi.

But Nancy Pelosi would not have announced the decision to seek her place as Minority Leader unless she had gotten a sense of approval, done a head count of her caucus and concluded that a majority of her colleagues would support her for the job.

This would indicate that the new Democrat minority in the House, is most definitely out of synch with the American people. While most Americans vehemently disapprove of her, the liberal dominated Democrat caucus approves of her. This only demonstrates that the new House minority is going to be an even more radically liberal body than it was this past session. After losing many Blue Dogs and moderates, it is only natural for the liberal establishment to become even more dominant than it was. But this is not good. It is not what the people wanted when they registered their objections to the current ways of the Democrat Party by electing a record number of more conservative Republicans to office.

This is a point which Rep. Shuler consistently brings up when he sates “I can go recruit moderate members to run in swing districts,” and then points out; “In that situation, I could do it better than she could, and that’s what it’s going to take. It’s going to take moderate candidates to win back those seats.

But if Pelosi does prevail, which is more than likely, the problem with her staying as one of the faces of the Party is the fact that Democrats will continue to be represented by another prominent member of their Party which is not too popular out of his home state.

The failure by Republicans to defeat Harry Reid in Nevada means that he will continue to be the face and voice of Democrats in the Senate.

This means that after a midterm elections which rejected the Obama, Reid, Pelosi agenda, Democrats are still going to be led by the architects of that agenda. This will not exactly help create the perception that Democrats have gotten the message that voters sent them on November 2nd.

This situation provides Republicans with an invaluable advantage, an advantage that Democrats could deny them if Nancy Pelosi realized that for the sake of the issues that she believes in, she should pass the baton to a new Democrat leader, one who does not carry the baggage that she does and one that doesn’t symbolize the failed status quo policies that voters just rejected. But when it comes to Democrats, I guess the lesson to be learned here is that you really can’t teach old dogs new tricks. Thankfully though, the American people apparently won’t let themselves be tricked again.

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Christmas Comes Early as Keith Olbermann Gets Taken Off The Air

The low rated Olbermann

Bookmark and Share    Christmas really came to America early this year. Here we are in the first week of November, and Nancy Pelosi is out of power as the Speaker of the House, Republicans have won a majority of statehouses and state legislatures, and record number of House victories. Now we find out that Keith Olbermann, the only man who was found too stupid to deliver the news as a sportscaster and now host of MSNBC’s low rated Countdown with Keith Olbermann, has been suspended indefinitely without pay.

As ecstatic as I am, I am just amazed at the liberal logic which the corporate big wigs running NBC, used to suspend Olbermann.

According to Phil Griffin, president of the General Electric Co., owners of NBC stated “Mindful of NBC News policy and standards, I have suspended him indefinitely without pay.”

Before we get into what that policy and those standards are, I must confess that I am shocked to learn that NBC News had any standards. I am still not so sure they do and in the end, “standards” had little to do with Olbermann’s “indefinite suspension”. NBC’s policy is what actually did him in.

It would seem that the NBC News does not allow its employees to participate in any political activity, including such practices as financial donations to political campaign. Fortunatley, or unfortunately, depending upon how you  look at it, Olbermann donated the maximum amount allowed by law to the failed campaign of Arizona’s Democrat senate candidate Jack Conway and two more Arizona congressional candidates.

In truth, I find the situation incredibly absurd and example of twisted liberal logic.

Here is MSNBC, an obvious and blatant corporate front group for the Democratic National Committee and the liberal cause, trying to claim that they do not allow their staff to privately exercise their rights as Americans but promote the blatantly partisan slander and bias by their on air gaggle of talentless mouthpieces. This is just another example of bass-backwards liberal thinking. Nonetheless, if Keith Olbermann signed on and agreed to this policy, he signed his right to privately support candidates away and is in violation of the so-called policy.

Or could it be that NBC finally found an excuse to ditch Olbermann and his extraordinarily low rated program that weighs the networks cable outlet down during, of all times, primetime. NBC certainly could not simply ditch Keith and risk alienating the six or seven loyal liberal viewers who comprise Olbermann’s audience, so they needed  to present a good rationale for getting rid of him. This was it.

Now leftists will shout “where the is the outcry against this action, that there was when Juan Williams was fired from NPR“. Well in the first place, people like Juan Williams, few like Olbermann. But the main reason for the lack of opposition to Olbermann’s “suspension” is due to the fact that Juan Williams was fired for making a point by offering a personal opinion on a media outlet separate from NPR. In response, NPR fired Williams claiming that the practice of offering an personal opinion was a violation of his contract. The uproar that ensued was based on the fact that if that was the reason Williams was fired, how come his NPR counterparts who famously offer their opinions, did not suffer the same fate as Williams? The reason clearly is because that Williams offered an opinion that did not conform to the liberal bias of NPR, while the opinions consistently offered by others at NPR are in synch with the station’s liberal ideology.

Even though I find the reason that NBC used to suspend Olbermann was twisted, if it is in fact their policy to prohibit their employees from exercising their rights when it comes to privately supporting the candidates they believe in, if this was indeed the reason Olbermann was taken down, I commend the network for applying their standard and policy to all their employees and didn’t give Keith a pass simply because he is as a liberal. However, as I stated previously, I think this suspension was motivated more by the lack of ratings than the donations Olbermann made to candidates.

Either way, I really have no desire to defend Olbermann. He consistently espouses a Marxist-liberal view which promotes federal control of people regarding everything from what they eat, to what their children learn and what they must purchase. So even if his rights were denied here, I’m sorry to say it but my only response is, good. It’s inline with the policies he promotes on MSNBC every week night.

Maybe if Olbermann ever said anything of merit or even that contained some semblance of fact, I would be less inclined to support NBC’s decision. But let’s face it, Keith Olbermann is a nothing but an arrogant idiot. His ignorance and downright hypocrisy is mind numbing. And for a man who claims to be of superior intellect he is incredibly dumb. Case in point is his violation of policy by directly donating money to liberal candidates. A smart person would have understood how simple it would have been to make his campaign contribution found its way to his candidates of choice and still avoid violating his station’s policy and jeopardizing his limited career. But Olbermann is not smart, he is just,…..well, he is just incredibly arrogant and stupid. I still want to know who slept with at NBC to get his job and who he was sleeping with to keep it, because that is the only possible explanation for him lasting as long as he has. And apparently, now he hasn’t even been doing that very well either. But up till now, it certainly hasn’t been ratings or popularity that kept him on the air. And I doubt very much it was his charm and wit which helped. That came from the writers who wrote his words for him.

No matter what though, I can honestly say that Santa came to town early this year.

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Conservative Payback To MSNBC and Its Cast of Clowns

Here’s a little payback for our friends at MSNBC, Chris Matthews, Keith olbrrman, Rachel Maddow, Ed Schultz and the liberal loons at  CNN too.

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President Reacts To Election Defeat & Shows He Just Doesn’t Get It

Bookmark and Share   President Obama just doesn’t get it.

In his usual arrogance, he addressed the beating that he, his policies and his Party took in the midterm elections by declaring that the way he sees it , while he made great progress over the past two years, he failed to do a good enough job at proving and explaining it to the people. His explanation for the historic losses of his Party makes clear that what the President really failed at, was to accept the real message the voters sent him last night.

Last night, voters did not tell the President that he hasn’t communicated well enough with them. They told him that they do not want endless spending, out of control government growth and, a massive new government bureaucracy that runs healthcare. Yet President Obama dismisses these conclusion by declaring;

“I don’t think the American people want to see us re-litigate the fights of the past  two years”.

On that, the President is wrong. 

A majority of voters have made it clear that they want Obamacare repealed and replaced.  A majority of voters have made it clear that they do not want anymore government stimulus packages that line the pockets of big union bosses and spend billions on temporary jobs that cost more money to create than they generate.

Voters told the President and his Party that they rejected the policy choices that they rammed through Congress. Voters told him and his Party that they did not like the exaggerated manipulation and abuse of the legislative process that they led. Yet President Obama refuses to accept that and in doing so, despite his once famously telling Senator John McCain that “elections have consequences” , he apparently does not believe those consequences apply to him.

It is becoming increasingly obvious that President Obama feels much more confident talking down to the American electorate than with them. Apparently President Obama is not willing to accept the will of the people and although he now claims to want to work with the new Republican majority in the House, one can’t help but wonder why he wishes to do so now and refused to sincerely do so in the past. Just days ago he called those who oppose his ideas “enemies” and then further offended any sense of bipartisanship by

declaring that Republicans and Democrats can work together but that the Republicans will have to sit in the backseat.

This did not lay the groundwork for a promising working relationship with the new Republican majority, a majority that has stated that their responsibility now is to “to listen to the American people” and carry out their will. If President Obama is unwilling to face the facts, this will put him at odds with the new working majority in the House and at odds with the overwhelming working majority of states and statehouses that a plurality of Americans have given the G.O.P. control of.

As such if President Obama refuses to acknowledge the real message handed to him by the American electorate during the 2010 elections, he risks becoming the individual most responsible for gridlock and a continued tone of divisive partisan politics. What President Obama must realize, and hopefully what the G.O.P. understands, is that when it comes to big government and big spending, Republicans can not compromise. This was the loudest message delivered by the voters on November 2, 2010. Thos issues are the ones which voters gave the G.O.P. a second chance to prove themselves to be true to and for Republicans to compromise on these issues would be a betrayal of the general mandate which produced a record number of Democrat defeats in the House and in statehouses. Republicans have seemingly accepted that and so should President Obama.

So while I urge the new Republican majority to use their first hundred days in office to reach out to Democrats, sincerely find those issues where they share common ground and move on them, I also urge the President and his Party to follow the Republican lead and listen to the people. It is time for him to stop being so doctrinaire and prove that as our President, he is not tone deaf to his fellow Americans.

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Republicans Can’t Gloat, But They Can Listen To the Voters & Set an Example

Bookmark and Share    Two years ago I listened to Democrats tell me “Republicans have gone the way of the Whigs”, “this is the end of the Republican Party”, “the Republican Party is forever lost”, “they will never comeback”. These are direct quotes. They are the thoughts of euphoric liberals who saw, then President-Elect Barack Obama, as a messianic figure, a modern JFK and the “hope” of our nation. At the time, I could not help but think, first, these are the same people who think Joe Biden is a genius, and second, how naïve could these people be?

I for one understand the cyclical nature of politics and I also understood the nature of the Democrats slow rise to control between 2004 and 2008. So, confident in the principles that lie at the heart of the G.O.P., I knew the Republican Party was not dead. I knew that we would come back and I never abandoned the cause to bring ‘em back.  I hoped for my Party to have learned a lesson and come to understand what they did wrong. I was also confident that, being dominated by liberals, the Democrat Party would prove incompetent. I stated such. I also stated that President Obama would be a reincarnation of the Carter presidency and prove to be a man controlled  by circumstances more than he controlled circumstances.

Between my two perceptions of the Parties, I knew the G.O.P. would be back. However, I never expected them to comeback quicker than any other time in American political history. Sadly, I cannot say that this record comeback was to my Party’s credit. It was solely due to the failure of Democrats. They performed in a way that demonstrated everything that people hate about politics. When it comes to partisanship, they defined it. When it came to pork, they stuffed their faces. On the issue of spending, one would have to work really hard to try to spend more than they have in just 20 short months. On negative issue, after negative issue, Democrats exaggerated the negatives. The closed door deals, the underhanded tactics, the passage of bills they did not read, the overreach of government, corruption, whatever people disliked about government and politics, Democrats did.

In the meantime, the G.O.P. had little chance to give the public reason to vote for them and offered little reason to do so either. What they did do though, was oppose all that Democrats did and all that the public disliked. For that reason, they were the beneficiaries of a protest vote against Democrats, not necessarily a vote for Republicans.

That is why I have penned the midterms of 2010 the Republican Rejuvenation. In 1994, the wave that swept Republicans into power was accurately called the Republican Revolution. And it was a revolution. People had approved of the ideas and direction that the G.O.P. was offering. But this time, the people are not that confident. So while this election has indeed rejuvenated the G.O.P., the rise back to power they have experienced is an opportunity, not a victory. It is a chance that is theirs to blow, or take advantage of.

It ‘s a chance to show leadership and prove that they understand that the leadership they must provide is that which leads us to a limited government that stays out of our lives, spends less of our money and more accurately reflects that which it was intended to when it was founded.

So now that the chance to prove ourselves is upon us, how do we as Republicans take advantage of the opportunity?

First; we must not act like Democrats. We must not be hypocrites and implement the same legislative tactics and sleights of hands that we denounced Democrats for using to pass legislation. Second; we must not approve increased spending which increases the overall federal budget and need to reduce spending and the deficit. Third; we must follow through on our promises and cut the size of government and repeal Obamacare and replace it, not with a more government, but rather a package of changes which help make healthcare more affordable through the free market, not through a behemoth new federal bureaucracy.

But this is not enough. Republicans must go the extra mile and prove that they have not only learned the ideological lessons which teach us that we can not compromise on big spending and big government, but that we also want less government when it comes to the personal lives of individual Americans. We must show that when we discuss less regulation, we also mean less regulation of the people and their personal lives. And beyond proving that we have learned our ideological lessons we must appeal to the nonpartisan nature of the average American and prove that we have learned how to provide leadership that is for country , not Party.

It is this cause which I feel the G.O.P. must act upon first.

When President Obama was elected, he proved himself to be quite partisan. It took him 18 months to meet one on one with Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. It took him a year to start discussing healthcare reform with Republicans. He has recently stated that Republicans can join with Democrats but have sit in the back and described the loyal opposition as “our enemy“.. These are not the acts and words of a leader who wants to cross the aisle and deal with all Americans or hear all opinions. The American people are tired of partisan leadership and partisan gridlock. That is why with this new opportunity at hand, Republicans must show that they understand when partisanship and politics must stop and productivity and progress must start.

To do so, I call upon the new Republican majority to reach out to the Democrat minority and our President. Reach out to them, one on one and say. “let’s start the new Congress right. Let’s start it off on a productive note and let’s answer this question. What do we agree upon?”

I want the Republican leadership to find out what Democrats and Republicans can do together in the first 100 days and start off on the right foot. Let us change the tone in Washington that the American working class hates about the political class.

While there are priorities which the G.O.P. will have a responsibility to address with haste, certain national priorities and commitments they campaigned on, at the same time, there must be some significant issues which the left and the right can agree on. Let us find out what they are and act upon them, now, not later.

This new day in politics must produce a new way in politics. A way that unites more than divides and lifts us up as nation more than weighs us down. In this new day, Republicans have a chance to say “no” to what needs to be rejected, but the responsibility to produce that which should be said “yes” to. The opportunity we have been handed must be used to demonstrate that we are deserving of the peoples vote and that when applied to government properly, the core Republicans principles we stand for, are key to the formulation of the best policies for the American people. This opportunity we have is nothing to gloat about. We have no right to gloat. We did not earn this victory in 2010, we simply were the beneficiary of the Democrat’s losses. But if we do what is right, now, we can truly be deserving of votes later.

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What To Look For In The Early Election Returns

Bookmark and Share    For those of you who find yourselves viewing election returns with the same type of intensity that most watch the Super Bowl with, POLITICS 24/7  previously offered a comprehensive election night analysis and schedule along with projections. It seems to have been quite popular and so  for those who are most anxious, POLITICS 24/7 now focuses in on the earliest returns and what they are likely to tell us about how the rest of the night will shape up.

The very first returns that have the chance of being reported on will come out of Indiana and Kentucky. Here, parts of the state close their polls at 6:00 pm EST. As a result, it is possible for some media outlets to report the results of some of the first House races. But it is also possible, in fact likely, that the results in a few of those congressional districts where the polls do close, will be too close to call.

6:00 pm

But sometime between 6:00 and 7:00 pm look at Indiana-2 and 9, and Kentucky-3 and 6.

In Indiana’s 9th CD, a loss by incumbent Democrat Baron Hill will be a sign that Republicans are indeed on track to take the House and see significant gains across the board.

If the races in Indiana‘s 2nd district and Kentucky’s 3rd, are too close to call, rest assured that that this will indeed be a wave election. But if Democrat incumbents Joe Donnelly and John Yarmuth actually lose, to their Republican opponents, Jackie Walorski and Todd Lally, you can take it as a sign that the 2010 midterms are going to be a tsunami that will produce historic gains for the Republicans that approach 70 seats.

 

 

7:00 pm

After 7:00 pm EST, the races that will act as barometers and need to be watched include:

 Kentucky’s Senate race, South Carolina-5, Florida-8 & 22, Georgia-8 & 12, Virginia-5 & 11.

The GOP will be on track for 50 or more seats with Republicans wins in the Kentucky Senate race with Rand Paul, in addition to the following House races;

South Carolina-5 (Mick Mulvaney-R over John Spratt-D), Florida-8 (Daniel Webster-R over Allen Grayson-D), Florida-22 (Allen West-R over Ron Klein-D), Georgia-8 (Austin Scott-R over Jim Marshall-D) and, Virginia-5 (Robert Hurt over Tom Perriello-D)

While those wins will help verify that the G.O.P. is on track, the following results between 7 and 8 O’clock will be signs that Democrats are about to be crushed worse than expected;

Georgia-12 (Ray McKinney-R over John Barrow-D) and Virginia-11 (David McKinley-R over Mike Oliviero-D)

7:30 pm

Between 7:30 and 8:00 pm, the results to look at will come out West Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina.

Wins by John Kasich in Ohio’s gubernatorial race and Ohio’s 1st CD (Steve Chabot-R over Steve Driehaus-D) will show that the G.O.P. is on track and that trends are holding. But the races that will indicate that the Republican wave may bigger than anyone anticipates will come from West Virginia’s race for U.S. Senate and the following House races;

 WV-1, WV-3, NC-11 and OH-6

Any combination of two or more wins in these races will point to Republican gains in the House that will exceed 62 seats and if John Raese pulls it out and beats back popular Democrats Governor Joe Mancin for Senate in West Virginia, the G.O.P. will have the potential of taking control of the United States Senate.

8:00 pm

After the 8 o’clock hour, the outcome of the 2010 midterm will begin to be set in stone.

News out of Illinois of Republican pickups in the Senate by Kirk and the statehouse by Brady, will keep everything track in still make it possible for Republicans to take control of the United States Senate. From Pennsylvania, word of Pat Toomey defeating Joe SaysTax will be further evidence of the trend holding. Of course something else to watch for in these wins, will be the margins of victory. If any of these races produce leads of 5 or more percent, that will help prove that polling models are inaccurate and were unable to detect the undercurrent of voter sentiments. A sure sign that things will be worse off for Democrats than anyone anticipate, would be a Republican win over Democrat Patrick Duval in the race for Governor of Massachusetts.

The House races to look at here will be:

Connecticut-5, Pennsylvania-3 and11, NH 1, Illinois-14, and Mississippi-4

A majority of Republicans here are keeping the G.O.P on track for a big night. But if it is going to be a really big night for Republicans they will be winning the following races:

Pennsylvania-8 (Michael Fitzpatrick-R over Patrick Murphy-D), New Jersey-3, (Jon Runyan-R over John Adler-D)

Democrat losses of these two seats will be a sign that the anti-Democrat sentiments are seeping into some of the bluest states in one of the bluest regions of the country. Other such races include:

 Massachusetts-10, Illinois-17 and, Missouri-4

 And two seats that Democrats losses would mean that they are going to be dead in the water  would be:

New Jersey 6 and 12

Here Democrats Frank Pallone and Rush Holt are seemingly safe seats, but there are rumblings that could prove them not to be safe for big government, big spending liberals anymore.  That and extremely hard fought races by their Republican opponents Anna Little and Scott Sipprele makes these races worth watching.  Pallone and Holt may not lose but if they have a margin of victory that is less than 6 or 7 percent, Democrats will be living in fear from now to 2012.

 But aside from these races, keep your eyes out for the returns in

Massachusetts’ 4th CD and Michigan’ 15th

If long serving John Dingel goes down in Michigan, Democrats better hold on for a tougher ride than they expected, but if Barney Frank loses to Republican Sean Bielat in MA-4, Republicans may be on their way to taking 70 seats.

Defeating Barney Frank may be unlikely, but after Republican Scott Brown was elected to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate and a strong race by Sean Bielat, if there are going to be any miracles on election night, they will take place here in the Bay State.

9:00 pm

As the 9 o’clock hour rolls out look for the House to be officially declared to have changed hands and gone to Republican control. But during this hour, some of the House races that will give a hint as to the size of their majority, are;

Louisiana-2, Minnesota-1 & 8, Michigan-15, NY-2, 13, 19, 24, Rhode Island and Wisconsin 13

While many other seats are going to fall to Republicans after 9 o’clock, especially in New York, Colorado and Wisconsin and Michigan, of the seats mentioned above, if Democrats who are likely to win in these districts, lose any combination of 4 or more, Republicans are looking at House gains approaching 70 seats

10:00 pm

Long before this hour, we should have established that the House has gone to Republicans but we should also have a good idea on how the rest of the chips will fall. I anticipate that after this hour, the balance of power in the Senate will come down to California and Washington where Boxer and Murphy are at risk (Murphy more so than Boxer), and Alaska where write-n ballots will drag out the time it takes to declare Joe Miller the winner.

Sharon Angle is likely to win in Nevada but as for this race, look for the early numbers that come out of Clark County.

Clark County is the home of Las Vegas and most of the state’s population. Clark County is overwhelmingly Democrat, but it is the only part of the state that is. If returns out of Clark County are showing Harry Reid with a lead over Angle that is not higher than 8%, Harry Reid will have lost his bid for reelection.

Other races of special interest throughout the night will be Louisiana-2 where incumbent Joseph Cao is likely to lose to Democrat Cedric Richmond.  If Cao wins, this will be a sign that Democrats are underperforming among their base and minorities musch worse than anyone thought possible.  The same will be able to be said if Democrat Incumbent Loretta Sanchez loses to Republican Van Tran in California’s 47th congressional district. 

Also of interest will be Hawaii’s at-large seat in Congress and race for Governor.  Republicans have a decent but unlikely chance of keeping Charles Djou in office but an even less likely chance of keeping its statehouse in Republican hands aginst popular retiring Congressman Neil Abercrombie.

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