The truth in this blog may hurt liberals and could lead them to encounter a sense of severe frustration and anger. Other side effects may include a need to deny reality, rewrite history and an inexplicable desire to defend failed policies and socialist programs.
While most of the contests in the 2009 elections are local , the most focus and attention is on 
statewide elections, a special election and the nation’s largest city.POLITICS 24/7 is not taking much of a gamble by projecting two term, incumbent Mayor Mike Bloomberg the winner in New York City as he gets reelected to a third term in a city that has a two term limit.
Bloomberg claimed that in times of crisis, a mayor should be allowed to continue to provide their steady hand of leadership, if the people so choose. “Mayor Mike” explained that the economy is so bad, that it qualifies the times we are in as a “crisis”. With some backslapping, deal making and favors called in, the New York City council granted a waiver of sorts which broke the City’s term limit statutes and voila, after the September primaries, Bloomberg officially got on the ballot with the Republican and Independent lines.
Weeks later, after spending a record breaking merely $90 million dollars of his own personal fortune, by the end of the day, Bloomberg will have purchased a third term as Mayor.
Interestingly, his Democrat opponent, outgoing City Comptroller William Thompson, is ending his campaign on a high note. Spending only $8 million on his campaign, the underdog seems to have been gaining some traction in these closing days of the election. Apparently many voters have decided that Mike B’s skirting of term limits was really a disingenuous maneuver and, late inthe game, many undecided voters have broken for Thompson. This Thompson surge still will not make him competitive as the votes are tabulated but it should end up with him losing by a lot less than early polls suggested. Contrary to early predictions established through several polling firms, Thompson will cut his once 15 to 20% deficit by more than half and is now likely to lose by only as much 8 to 10%.
Staying in New York but heading north of the city, we find ourselves in the 23rd Congressional where a special election for Congress is being held.
After weeks of controversy, the Republican nominee, liberal Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign after it imploded because of a lack of Republican support. North Country New Yorkers in the 23rd CD started bolting from Scozzafava and supporting her Republican opponent Doug Hoffman. Hoffman is running on the Cnservative Party Line.
After Scozzafava’s extreme liberal views created a split among voters and prominent national Republicans, polling showed Scozzafava in third place behind Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Doug Hofman. She subsequently determined that her campaign war chest was too skimpy to overcome the opposition to her candidacy so she dropped out and endorsed Democrat nominee Bill Owens.
In this race, Politics 24/7 is going cross its fingers and project Doug Hoffman the winner.
This district has been in Republican hands since the Civil War and it remains predominantly Republican today. In 2008 while Republicans were out of favor nationally, under the best conditions for Democrats, the 23rd CD gave John McCain 52% of their vote and only 47% to President Obama. This is most certainly a Republican district and it is not easily turned blue in the best of times for Democrats. With President Obama’s approval ratings well below 50% in this district, and the Democrat governor of New York, David Paterson, maintaining some of the lowest approval ratings of any Democrat in state history, these are not the best of times. So the atmosphere is not good for liberals. Especially in the 23rd.
This leads Politics 24/7 to conclude that although this race will be close and probably closer than ever before, conservative Doug Hoffman will this race by at least 3%.
Leaving New York we head south to Virginia.
Creigh Deeds Campaign Mailer
This is a no brainer. Republican Bob McDonnell will win by at least 8%. I feel his final vote count will not be quite as large as some of the mid and high teens that some polls have shown. But make no doubt about it, Democrat Creigh Deeds will be defeated by embarrassing proportions.
The story is quite different in what is probably the most intriguing race in the nantion———New Jersey.
By any standard, Incumbent Democrat Governor Jon Corzine has killed the state and destroyed the spirit and will of New Jersey’s citizens. Jobs have fled the state and residents are bolting from New Jersey faster than Russians fleeing Chernobyl. He has been a horrible Governor and he is an even worse candidate.
By all accounts this race was Republican Chris Christie’s to win. All through the summer Christie led Corzine by double digits. But then something happened. Christie started talking. The more he spoke, the more people realized that he had nothing to say. So his numbers gradually slipped. This slip in the polls simultaneously took place while Jon Corzine called in the messiah to rescue his own depressed reelection bid.
With three trips to New Jersey for Governor Corzine, President Obama attended rallies in the regions of the state with the highest concentration of African-American voters. The hope has been to pull out the same historic number of African-American that voted for Obama in 2009 and make sure they come out now to pull the lever for Corzine. Corzine has morphed himself into President Obama and conveyed the impression that he was Barack Obama’s running mate.
Given Chris Christie’s uninspiring candidacy, the strategy could work. However, the undeniably horrendous job that Corzine has done has turned off so many voters that there numbers can not be neutralized by a heavier than normal black. It is also worth mentioning that blacks will not turn out for Corzine in the same numbers that they did for President Obama.
At this point in the afternoon, that assesment is coming to fruition. Voter turnout in New Jersey’s largest city, Newark is low. Much lower than anticipated. If a havey black vote was going to materialize anywhere, it would do so in Newark, which has the highest concentration of African American voters than anywhere else in the state. If this trend continues and turnout in Newark dips below 50%, Corzine is out.
Add to this the much touted candidacy of independent Chris Daggett.
Daggett was surfacing as a strong spoiler but his numbers dropped from highs near 20% to where he is now with as much as 8% or as little as 4%. In these closing days, concerned that they might be throwing their vote and allow Jon Corzine to walk right up the middle, they have been changing their minds. Based upon who they are breaking for, POLITICS 24/7 is willing to go out on a limb with Christie.
Now Christie is a pretty heavy guy to be stuck on a limb with, so to do so we have to be pretty confident.
But we aren’t.
Still, given the current environment, we go with Republican Christie over liberal incumbent Jon Corzine.
Polls show that right now voters are going to thevoting booth, angry, and they are not happy with incumbents as a whopping majority of Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track. Ironically, they want change. I guess the change President Obama won with in ‘08 is not getting very far in ‘09. None of these factors favor incumbent Governor Corzine. This is why those voters who have changed their minds about supporting Daggett, are breaking for Christie and not Corzine.
As we close out the election, despite himself, the momentum is behind Chris Christie and for that reason POLITICS 24/7 believes that Republican Chris Christie will be elected Governor of New Jersey by as much as 3 or 4%. That could be high but a gut sense arrived at through a feel for all the factors at play, leads me to err on the side of Christie. If he does not win, it will be a long night with a lot of careful counting because if Corzine can pull off a win here, it will be measured by hundreds or thousands, not percentages.
Corzine Campaign Billboard
The election of 2009 will go down as a memorable one. It will also indeed be a test of President Obama’s clout. After campaigning heavily for Jon Corzine as well as Creigh Deeds, the President’s reputation most certainly is a factor here. Jon Corzine has spent his entire campaign trying to make it a referendum on Obama. Billboeards, literature and speeches all featured President Obama. Corzine needed to talk about anything but his record and so he tried to convince voters that a vote for him was actually a vote for the President.
Even Creigh Deeds made this a referendum on the President. His own campaign literature excluded images of himself for that of President Obama’s image instead.
So this sure will be a test for the President and it looks like it’s a test he will fail.
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