Christie Is More Likely To Lose Than Corzine Is To Win

    As we go into the closing days of the hotly contested race for Governor of New Jersey, except for one poll which has Corzine leading by 9%, fewer polls have Governor Corzine getting reelected by anywhere from 1 to 4 percent than have Chris Christie winning by the same margins. This is a stark contrast to an entire summer where Chris Christie, the former federal prosecutor and corruption busting knight in shinning honor, saw double digit leads in just about every poll taken. Those numbers were not really as much a reflection on Christie as they were on one of the state’s worst Governor and certainly the worst one since Democrat Jim Florio was rapidly and soundly booted out of office in 1993.

Christie’s once astounding lead was largely due to the fact that the quality of life in New Jersey has been decimated by Corzine.

In the face of already high costs of living, New Jerseyans saw Jon Corzine raise the state’s already highest taxes in the nation to even higher proportions In addition to a higher state sales tax, voters watched Corzine invent new ones and propose a 50 percent (plus inflation) toll increase on New Jersey roadways every four years from 2010 to 2032, and then by the cost of inflation every four years until 2085. He even proposed putting tolls on roads that currently don’t have tolls.

Voters also saw Corzine stand by and do nothing when the courts ordered the social engineering of our communities and demand that they build a mandatory minimum of low income housing in all of our municipalities and in clandestine negotiations, sell out the state of New Jersey to unions led by his former girlfriend.

In the mean time, the Governor’s targeted taxation of businesses have killed the entrepreneurial spirit in the Garden State and stifled creativity and productivity to the point where jobs have been forced to flee the state screaming and take with them any hope of jobs for the state’s citizens.

All together, Corzine and the Democrat led state legislature have prepared a horribly tasting goulash of financial schemes, over taxation, corruption, social engineering and a dismantling of economic security and hope for a better life.

For all these reasons, Jon Corzine was surely a one term Governor, doomed to go down in history as a dismal failure. To turn this inevitability around took quite a lot of work, work that Chris Christie and his campaign team worked hard to do for the Governor.

The fact that the once blowout election of Christie has turned into a virtual tossup has little to do with Jon Corzine and much to do with Chris Christie and his campaign’s inept management.

Christie failed to take his claim to fame and greatest asset, his successful record of corruption busting, and explain how it can translate into a successful administration of the office of Governor which the people can have faith in. Oh, sure he touted his perfect conviction record and explained in general terms that he knows where the corruption in the system lies and root it as Governor, can root it out, but he failed to fully explain how and he failed to turn that into a cohesive theme for voters to follow.

Then came examples of arrogance and insincerity exploited by the endless tens of millions of dollars which the independently wealthy Wall Street wizard, Corzine invested in his campaign.

Christie lost a lot of credibility when Corzine disclosed that the former federal prosecutor failed to fully list some of his earnings on his taxes. Then the Corzine campaign leaked details about traffic tickets that the man of justice received for driving an unregistered vehicle and speeding with his kids in the car. On top of that, Corzine got mileage from distorted claims that Christie secured lucrative federal contracts for campaign donors and his brother. All of this soiled the purity of the crime busting image that Christie should have been able to take advantage of in a state where corruption rules.

Throw in to that the absolute lack of any concrete plans, proposals, details and concrete direction offered from candidate Christie, and the longer this campaign has gone on, the less reasons people have to vote for him. When combined with an attractive third party candidacy in Chris Daggett and a Corzine campaign that is trying to bring every black and Jewish voter in New Jersey out to vote for him, the result, as we come down to the wire, is a tied race.

Prior to today, the race for Governor in New Jersey was a sure thing for Republicans, just as it is for them in the only other state having elections for Governor in 2009, Virginia. There, the Republican nominee is still leading his challenger by as much as the upper teens, in some polls. But as of today, as indicated by most polls, the candidacy of Chris Christie is looking less and less likely of obtaining the Republican victory that was theirs to lose.

Although I won’t say it is over and that Corzine is sure to win reelection, I will tell you this. Jon Corzine is likely to win reelection. His campaign long ago accepted the fact that Corzine has very little success to run on and that he is a horrible candidate. That is why they have successfully tarnished the image of Christie and done their best make this election a referendum on President Barack Obama instead of himself. Governor Corzine has depicted himself as President Obama’s running mate and focused on motivating the liberal base of the Democrat Party. Much of that focus is on African-American and Jewish voters. The Corzine campaign plan is counting on eking out a victory by getting every single black and Jewish vote there is in New Jersey.

The feeling is that if the Governor can attract anywhere near the unprecedented turnout among African-Americans that existed in 2008 for President Obama, than he can neutralize some of the dissatisfied voters who may be willing to support Independent Chris Dagget and compensate for those who are still willing to lodge a protest vote by pulling the handle for Chris Christie. This is one reason why the Governor selected Loretta Weinberg to be his Lieutenant Governor. The self described and much touted “fiesty Jewish Grandmother” is hoped to inspire the large liberal Jewish base i n New Jersey. This is also the reason why President Obama is going to return to New Jersey for the purpose of campaigning for Corzine for a third time. This week the President will appear with the Governor in Camden and Newark, where the largest concentration of African-American voters in the stare reside.

The strategy is a wise one for a candidate with a horrible record and few options. It is really the only way for the Governor to achieve victory. And in my opinion, it is probably going to work.

Despite his horrible tenure as Governor, Corzine has his base energized and motivated to come out and vote for him. Actually they will not be coming out to vote for him as much as the will be coming out for the cause and the side that Corzine represents. He represents the liberal cause. the Obama cause. And so liberals will pull the lever dedicated to Corzine’s name, not necessarily for him but for Democrats and the President.

On the flipside, Chris Christie’s base is not motivated, and in many instances, not supportive of him. Christie failed to inspire the Republican base and never convinced them that he was committed to conservative principles or values. He did try to offer lip service to them but it was obvious to most conservatives that it was just that, lip service. To compound the shaky ground that his campaign stands on because of the lack of support from Christie’s base, is Chris Daggett who is drawing just as many votes away from Christie as he is from Corzine. Christie would have been the recipient of many of the anti-Corzine vote that Daggett will receive and they very well could account for a Corzine margin of victory that is by as little as a few hundred to a thousand or so votes or as much as 4 or 5 %.

Added insurance of either one of those results, comes from the financial factors. When all is said and done, Christie is limited to spending $11 million in his race while Jon Corzine, whi is not accepting public matching funds, is expected to spend upwards of $30 million of his own money for reelection. That would be the least he has ever spent in an election.

When Corzine first ran for the United States Senate against Congressman Bob Franks in 2000, he spent $63 million of his own fortune and won by a mere 50% to Frank’s 47%. Then in 2003 he spent another fortune to buy the election for Governor against the extremely pathetic campaign of the nobody, Doug Forrester.

Given that statewide candidates have to purchase ads in the nation’s two largest and most expensive media markets, New York and Philadelphia, and that it costs $1.5 million per week in order to saturate New Jersey with one’s message, even if Chris Christie had a decent message to offer, he can not afford to get it out to the voters. This is as opposed to Corzine who can afford to get his message out twice if he so chose to.

For all these reasons, after Christie blew off his base along with his surefire election chances and double digit leads, I believe that the victory is Corzine’s. Or perhaps it is better to say that Corzine will not be as much the winner as Christie will be the loser. If this does occur, I can only hope that Chris Christie man up and take responsibility for squandering his one time insurmountable lead in the polls. When Doug Forrester went down to defeat against Corzine in 2005, he blamed it on President Bush, claiming that no Republican could have won because George Bush was too unpopular. George Bush was not on the ballot and he did not manage Forrester’s campaign. Forrester lost because he, his candidacy and his campaign were losers.

When Forrester denied responsibility for his own loss and blamed it on the President, I lost any and all respect I may have had for him. I was quickly made aware of the fact that we were probably better off without such a man governing us. Hopefully Christie will maintain some class and decency and accept responsibility for his horrible candidacy and the loss it is increasingly likely to produce.

Unless the absolute disgust with Corzine is even more predominant than it seems and those who are disgusted are quietly coming out in even larger droves than expected, to vote against him allowing Christie to squeak by,  the biggest thing to come out of this race will be Chris Daggett. If he has a strong showing anywhere in the mid to upper teens, he will emerge as a viable candidate in the next statewide race, be it for Senator or Governor. Daggett’s come from nowhere presence has helped him establish some much needed name ID and will be a force for Republicans and Democrats to contend with.

Aside from that, whether it’s Christie or Corzine, regardless of which one wins, New Jersey loses.

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